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Adrian Rodney Pagan

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Jonathan Ohn & Larry W. Taylor & Adrian Pagan, 2004. "Testing for duration dependence in economic cycles," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 528-549, December.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Briefer economic cycles
      by Salil Mehta in Statistical Ideas on 2014-03-04 07:34:00

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography of Economics:
  1. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models > Sign Restrictions

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Pagan, Adrian & Vella, Frank, 1989. "Diagnostic Tests for Models Based on Individual Data: A Survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages 29-59, Supplemen.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Diagnostic tests for models based on individual data: a survey (Journal of Applied Econometrics 1989) in ReplicationWiki ()
  2. Pagan, Adrian & Ullah, Aman, 1988. "The Econometric Analysis of Models with Risk Terms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 87-105, April.

    Mentioned in:

    1. The econometric analysis of models with risk terms (Journal of Applied Econometrics 1988) in ReplicationWiki ()
  3. Mardi Dungey & Vance L Martin & Adrian R Pagan, 2000. "A multivariate latent factor decomposition of international bond yield spreads," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 697-715.

    Mentioned in:

    1. A multivariate latent factor decomposition of international bond yield spreads (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2000) in ReplicationWiki ()
  4. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2005. "A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 151-159.

    Mentioned in:

    1. A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2005) in ReplicationWiki ()
  5. Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Limited information estimation and evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 55-70.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Limited information estimation and evaluation of DSGE models (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2010) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Max Gillman & Adrian Pagan, 2023. "Investigating Cycle Anatomy," CAMA Working Papers 2023-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Ye Lu & Adrian Pagan, 2023. "To Boost or Not to Boost? That is the Question," Working Papers 2023-05, University of Sydney, School of Economics.

  2. Daniel Buncic & Adrian Pagan & Tim Robinson, 2023. "Recovering Stars in Macroeconomics," CAMA Working Papers 2023-43, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Buncic, Daniel, 2024. "Econometric issues in the estimation of the natural rate of interest," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

  3. Daniel Buncic & Adrian Pagan, 2022. "Discovering Stars: Problems in Recovering Latent Variables from Models," CAMA Working Papers 2022-52, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Buncic, Daniel, 2024. "Econometric issues in the estimation of the natural rate of interest," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    2. Ye Lu & Adrian Pagan, 2023. "To Boost or Not to Boost? That is the Question," Working Papers 2023-05, University of Sydney, School of Economics.

  4. Adrian Pagan & Tim Robinson, 2020. "Too many shocks spoil the interpretation," CAMA Working Papers 2020-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Georgios Georgiadis & Martina Jancokova, 2017. "Financial Globalisation, Monetary Policy Spillovers and Macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 Shocks," Globalization Institute Working Papers 314, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Francisco Ilabaca & Fabio Milani, 2020. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Indeterminacy, and Postwar US Business Cycles," CESifo Working Paper Series 8224, CESifo.
    3. Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2020. "Structural vector autoregressive models with more shocks than variables identified via heteroskedasticity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    4. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2020. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Models with More Shocks than Variables Identified via Heteroskedasticity," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1871, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

  5. Adrian Pagan & Tim Robinson, 2019. "Implications of partial information for econometric modeling of macroeconomic systems," CAMA Working Papers 2019-41, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Fève, Patrick & Beaudry, Paul & Collard, Fabrice & Guay, Alain & Portier, Franck, 2022. "Dynamic Identification in VARs," TSE Working Papers 22-1384, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).

  6. Adrian Pagan & Tim Robinson, 2019. "Implications of Partial Information for Applied Macroeconomic Modelling," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2019n12, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.

    Cited by:

    1. Pagan, Adrian & Robinson, Tim, 2022. "Excess shocks can limit the economic interpretation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Wickens, Michael R. & Pagan, Adrian, 2019. "Checking if the Straitjacket Fits," CEPR Discussion Papers 14140, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  7. Wickens, Michael R. & Pagan, Adrian, 2019. "Checking if the Straitjacket Fits," CEPR Discussion Papers 14140, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Buncic, Daniel, 2024. "Econometric issues in the estimation of the natural rate of interest," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    2. Daniel Buncic, 2020. "Econometric issues with Laubach and Williams' estimates of the natural rate of interest," Papers 2002.11583, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.

  8. Adrian Pagan, 2019. "Australian macro-econometric models and their construction - A short history," CAMA Working Papers 2019-50, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Milan Deskar-Skrbic & Darjan Milutinovic, 2021. "Design of fiscal consolidation packages and model-based fiscal multipliers in Croatia," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 45(1), pages 1-61.
    2. Gross, Isaac & Leigh, Andrew, 2022. "Assessing Australian Monetary Policy in the Twenty-First Century," IZA Discussion Papers 15561, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Alexander Ballantyne & Tom Cusbert & Richard Evans & Rochelle Guttmann & Jonathan Hambur & Adam Hamilton & Elizabeth Kendall & Rachael McCririck & Gabriela Nodari & Daniel M. Rees, 2020. "MARTIN Has Its Place: A Macroeconometric Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(314), pages 225-251, September.
    4. Ozana Nadoveza Jelić & Rafael Ravnik, 2021. "Introducing Policy Analysis Croatian MAcroecoNometric Model (PACMAN)," Surveys 41, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    5. Elshurafa, Amro M. & Alatawi, Hatem & Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Algahtani, Goblan J. & Felder, Frank A., 2022. "Cost, emission, and macroeconomic implications of diesel displacement in the Saudi agricultural sector: Options and policy insights," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    6. Scobie, Grant M, 2020. "If Bill Phillips were Governor ...? Some implications of his work for contemporary macroeconomic policy," Working Paper Series 21096, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    7. Takeshi Yagihashi, 2020. "DSGE Models Used by Policymakers: A Survey," Discussion papers ron333, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.

  9. Mariano Kulish & Adrian Pagan, 2019. "Turning point and oscillatory cycles," CAMA Working Papers 2019-74, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2021. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 415, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    2. Iñaki Aldasoro & Stefan Avdjiev & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2023. "Global and Domestic Financial Cycles: Variations on a Theme," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(5), pages 49-98, December.
    3. Canova, Fabio & Ferroni, Filippo, 2020. "A hitchhiker guide to empirical macro models," CEPR Discussion Papers 15446, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Han Gao & Mariano Kulish & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2022. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money Reloaded," Working Papers 162, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).

  10. X. Liu & A.R. Pagan & T. Robinson, 2018. "Critically assessing estimated DSGE models: A case study of a multi-sector model," CAMA Working Papers 2018-04, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Pagan, Adrian & Robinson, Tim, 2022. "Excess shocks can limit the economic interpretation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Daniel Buncic & Adrian Pagan & Tim Robinson, 2023. "Recovering Stars in Macroeconomics," CAMA Working Papers 2023-43, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Adrian Pagan & Tim Robinson, 2020. "Too many shocks spoil the interpretation," CAMA Working Papers 2020-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Georgios Georgiadis & Martina Jancokova, 2017. "Financial Globalisation, Monetary Policy Spillovers and Macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 Shocks," Globalization Institute Working Papers 314, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Sam Ouliaris & Adrian Pagan, 2022. "Three Basic Issues that Arise when Using Informational Restrictions in SVARs," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 1-20, February.
    6. Adrian Pagan & Tim Robinson, 2019. "Implications of Partial Information for Applied Macroeconomic Modelling," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2019n12, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    7. Wickens, Michael R. & Pagan, Adrian, 2019. "Checking if the Straitjacket Fits," CEPR Discussion Papers 14140, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. X. Liu & A.R. Pagan & T. Robinson, 2018. "Critically assessing estimated DSGE models: A case study of a multi-sector model," CAMA Working Papers 2018-04, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Christopher G Gibbs & Jonathan Hambur & Gabriela Nodari, 2018. "DSGE Reno: Adding a Housing Block to a Small Open Economy Model," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2018-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Christopher G. Gibbs & Jonathan Hambur & Gabriela Nodari, 2021. "Housing and Commodity Investment Booms in a Small Open Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 97(317), pages 212-242, June.

  11. Adrian Pagan, 2017. "Some consequences of using "measurement error shocks" when estimating time series models," CAMA Working Papers 2017-12, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Alban Moura, 2020. "LED: An estimated DSGE model of the Luxembourg economy for policy analysis," BCL working papers 147, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    2. Adrian Pagan & Tim Robinson, 2019. "Implications of Partial Information for Applied Macroeconomic Modelling," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2019n12, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    3. X. Liu & A.R. Pagan & T. Robinson, 2018. "Critically assessing estimated DSGE models: A case study of a multi-sector model," CAMA Working Papers 2018-04, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

  12. Adrian Pagan & Tim Robinson, 2016. "Investigating the Relationship Between DSGE and SVAR Models," NCER Working Paper Series 112, National Centre for Econometric Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2017. "Dealing with Misspecification in DSGE Models: A Survey," MPRA Paper 82914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Sam Ouliaris & Adrian Pagan, 2022. "Three Basic Issues that Arise when Using Informational Restrictions in SVARs," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 1-20, February.
    3. X. Liu & A.R. Pagan & T. Robinson, 2018. "Critically assessing estimated DSGE models: A case study of a multi-sector model," CAMA Working Papers 2018-04, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

  13. Adrian Pagan, 2016. "An Unintended Consequence of Using "Errors in Variables Shocks" in DSGE Models?," NCER Working Paper Series 114, National Centre for Econometric Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Canova, Fabio & Matthes, Christian, 2018. "A composite likelihood approach for dynamic structural models," CEPR Discussion Papers 13245, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  14. S Ouliaris & A R Pagan, 2015. "A New Method for Working With Sign Restrictions in SVARs," NCER Working Paper Series 105, National Centre for Econometric Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Mansur, Alfan, 2015. "Identifying Shocks on the Economic Fluctuations in Indonesia and US: The Role of Oil Price Shocks in a Structural Vector Autoregression Model," MPRA Paper 94018, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Jun 2015.
    2. Masud Alam, 2021. "Output, Employment, and Price Effects of U.S. Narrative Tax Changes: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Approach," Papers 2106.10844, arXiv.org.
    3. Masud Alam, 2021. "Heterogeneous Responses to the U.S. Narrative Tax Changes: Evidence from the U.S. States," Papers 2107.13678, arXiv.org.

  15. Kulish, Mariano & Pagan, Adrian, 2014. "Estimation and Solution of Models with Expectations and Structural Changes," Dynare Working Papers 34, CEPREMAP.

    Cited by:

    1. F. Canova & F. Ferroni & C. Matthes, 2015. "Approximating time varying structural models with time invariant structures," Working papers 578, Banque de France.
    2. Callum Jones & Mariano Kulish & Daniel M. Rees, 2018. "International Spillovers of Forward Guidance Shocks," IMF Working Papers 2018/114, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Callum Jones, 2018. "Household Leverage and the Recession," 2018 Meeting Papers 933, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Alexander Beames & Mariano Kulish & Nadine Yamout, 2022. "Fiscal Policy and the Slowdown in Trend Growth in an Open Economy," Working Papers 143, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    5. Lindé, Jesper & Trabandt, Mathias, 2017. "Should We Use Linearized Models To Calculate Fiscal Multipliers?," Working Paper Series 350, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    6. Haderer, Michaela, 2022. "An Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area with Expectations about the Timing and Nature of Liftoff from the Lower Bound," Working Papers 2022-05, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    7. Giovanni Angelini & Marco M. Sorge, 2021. "Under the same (Chole)sky: DNK models, timing restrictions and recursive identification of monetary policy shocks," Working Papers wp1160, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    8. Gutiérrez, Germán & Jones, Callum & Philippon, Thomas, 2021. "Entry costs and aggregate dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 77-91.
    9. Müller, Tobias & Christoffel, Kai & Mazelis, Falk & Montes-Galdón, Carlos, 2022. "Disciplining expectations and the forward guidance puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Gerke, Rafael & Kienzler, Daniel & Scheer, Alexander, 2022. "On the macroeconomic effects of reinvestments in asset purchase programmes," Discussion Papers 47/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Pablo A. Cuba-Borda & Luca Guerrieri & Matteo Iacoviello & Molin Zhong, 2019. "Likelihood Evaluation of Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-028, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2014. "Tests of Policy Ineffectiveness in Macroeconometrics," CESifo Working Paper Series 4871, CESifo.
    13. Mariano Kulish & Adrian Pagan, 2016. "Issues in Estimating New Keynesian Phillips Curves in the Presence of Unknown Structural Change," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 1251-1270, August.
    14. Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Tim Robinson, 2014. "Estimating the Expected Duration of the Zero Lower Bound in DSGE Models with Forward Guidance," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2014n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    15. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2018. "Tests of Policy Interventions in DSGE Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(3), pages 457-484, June.
    16. Kapetanios, George & Millard, Stephen & Petrova, Katerina & Price, Simon, 2019. "Time-varying cointegration and the UK great ratios," Bank of England working papers 789, Bank of England.
    17. Hatcher, Michael, 2022. "Solving linear rational expectations models in the presence of structural change: Some extensions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    18. Coenen, Günter & Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Hutchinson, John & Motto, Roberto, 2022. "Rate forward guidance in an environment of large central bank balance sheets: a Eurosystem stock-taking assessment," Occasional Paper Series 290, European Central Bank.
    19. Gerke, Rafael & Kienzler, Daniel & Scheer, Alexander, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policies at the effective lower bound," Technical Papers 03/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2018. "Uncertainty-dependent Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: A New Keynesian Interpretation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2018n02, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    21. Diego A. Comin & Robert C. Johnson & Callum J. Jones, 2023. "Supply Chain Constraints and Inflation," NBER Working Papers 31179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Gibbs, Christopher G. & Xin, Herbert W., 2024. "The sacrifice ratio and active fiscal policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    23. Gibbs, Christopher G. & McClung, Nigel, 2019. "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2019, Bank of Finland.
    24. Kulish, Mariano & Yamout, Nadine, 2024. "The fiscal arithmetic of a slowdown in trend growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    25. Nana Kwame Akosah & Imhotep Paul Alagidede & Eric Schaling, 2024. "General Equilibrium Model for Monetary Policy Responses to Macroeconomic Instabilities in Developing Economy: A Ghanaian Perspective," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 13(2), pages 213-272, December.
    26. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2024. "Testing rational expectations in a cointegrated VAR with structural change," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    27. García-Cicco, Javier & García-Schmidt, Mariana, 2020. "Revisiting the exchange rate pass through: A general equilibrium perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    28. Han Gao & Mariano Kulish & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2022. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money Reloaded," Working Papers 162, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    29. Mariano Kulish & Daniel Rees, 2015. "Unprecedented Changes in the Terms of Trade," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2015-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    30. Christopher Gibbs & Nigel McClung, 2023. "Online Appendix to "Code and data files for "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?"," Online Appendices 22-197, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    31. Christopher G. Gibbs & Mariano Kulish, 2015. "Disinflations in a model of imperfectly anchored expectations," Discussion Papers 2015-22, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    32. Sergei Seleznev, 2016. "Solving DSGE models with stochastic trends," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps15, Bank of Russia.
    33. Marco Airaudo & Ina Hajdini, 2021. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria In Markov Regime Switching Models And Inflation Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1401-1430, November.
    34. Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Tim Robinson, 2014. "Estimating DSGE models with forward guidance," Discussion Papers 2014-32A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    35. Alexander Beames & Mariano Kulish & Nadine Yamout, 2021. "Implications of the slowdown in trend growth for fiscal policy in a small open economy," CAMA Working Papers 2021-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    36. Eskelinen, Maria & Gibbs, Christopher G. & McClung, Nigel, 2024. "Resolving new keynesian puzzles," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2024, Bank of Finland.
    37. Tolga Özden, 2021. "Heterogeneous Expectations and the Business Cycle at the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers 714, DNB.
    38. Kukacka, Jiri & Sacht, Stephen, 2021. "Estimation of Heuristic Switching in Behavioral Macroeconomic Models," Economics Working Papers 2021-01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    39. Gomez-Gonzalez, Patricia & Rees, Daniel M., 2018. "Same Spain, less pain?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 78-107.
    40. Harrison, Richard & Waldron, Matt, 2021. "Optimal policy with occasionally binding constraints: piecewise linear solution methods," Bank of England working papers 911, Bank of England.
    41. Nadine Yamout, 2022. "Potential Output in a Commodity‐Exporting Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 98(320), pages 42-62, March.

  16. Hyeon-Seung Huh & Lance Fisher & Adrian Pagan, 2014. "Econometric Methods for Modelling Systems with a Mixture of I(1) and I(0) Variables," EcoMod2014 7225, EcoMod.

    Cited by:

    1. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung, 2019. "An IV framework for combining sign and long-run parametric restrictions in SVARs," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2024. "Time-varying investment dynamics in the USA," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2024_01, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    3. Mardi Dungey & Denise R. Osborn, 2020. "The Gains from Catch‐up for China and the USA: An Empirical Framework," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(314), pages 350-365, September.
    4. Thomas H. W. Ziesemer, 2022. "Foreign R&D spillovers to the USA and strategic reactions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(37), pages 4274-4291, August.
    5. Houari, Oussama, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and business cycles in the US: New insights from the last three decades," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    6. Oussama Houari, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and business cycles in the US: New insights from the last three decades," Post-Print hal-03723972, HAL.
    7. Mengheng Li & Ivan Mendieta-Munoz, 2019. "The multivariate simultaneous unobserved components model and identification via heteroskedasticity," Working Paper Series 2019/08, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    8. Alemu Lambamo Hawitibo, 2023. "Explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in Ethiopia: the role of monetary and fiscal policies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1033-1061, April.
    9. Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2019. "Bayesian multivariate Beveridge--Nelson decomposition of I(1) and I(2) series with cointegration," MPRA Paper 91979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Lance A. Fisher & Hyeon-seung Huh, 2018. "Combining sign and parametric restrictions in SVARs by Givens Rotations," Working papers 2018rwp-122, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    11. Sam Ouliaris & Adrian Pagan, 2016. "A Method for Working with Sign Restrictions in Structural Equation Modelling," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 605-622, October.
    12. John Foster, 2017. "Prior Commitment and Uncertainty in Complex Economic Systems: Reinstating History in the Core of Economic Analysis," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 64(4), pages 392-418, September.
    13. S Ouliaris & A R Pagan, 2015. "A New Method for Working With Sign Restrictions in SVARs," NCER Working Paper Series 105, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    14. Fisher Lance A. & Huh Hyeon-seung, 2020. "Combining sign and parametric restrictions in SVARs by utilising Givens rotations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(3), pages 1-19, June.
    15. Tommy Wu & Michael Cheng & Ken Wong, 2017. "Bayesian analysis of Hong Kong's housing price dynamics," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 312-331, August.
    16. THW Ziesemer, 2020. "Japan’s Productivity and GDP Growth: The Role of Private, Public and Foreign R&D 1967–2017," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-25, September.

  17. Mariano Kulish & Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Issues in Estimating New Keynesian Phillips Curves in the Presence of Unknown Structural Change," NCER Working Paper Series 94, National Centre for Econometric Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2024. "Testing rational expectations in a cointegrated VAR with structural change," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    2. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Shields, Kalvinder, 2016. "Information rigidities and the news-adjusted output gap," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-17.

  18. Tony Hall & Jan Jacobs & Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Macro-Econometric System Modelling @75," CAMA Working Papers 2013-67, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Pagan, Adrian & Robinson, Tim, 2014. "Methods for assessing the impact of financial effects on business cycles in macroeconometric models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 94-106.
    2. Warwick J. McKibbin & Andrew Stoeckel, 2017. "Modelling a complex world: Improving macro-models," CAMA Working Papers 2017-56, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Takeshi Yagihashi, 2020. "DSGE Models Used by Policymakers: A Survey," Discussion papers ron333, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    4. Miller, Marcus, 2014. "Macroeconomics after the crisis ? hedgehog or fox?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9974, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  19. Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Patterns and Their Uses," NCER Working Paper Series 96, National Centre for Econometric Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Lance A. Fisher & Hyeon-seung Huh, 2016. "On the econometric modelling of consumer sentiment shocks in SVARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1033-1051, November.
    2. Reuben Ellul, "undated". "Timing the Maltese business cycle: A historical perspective," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2021, Central Bank of Malta.

  20. Lance A Fisher & Syeon-seung Huh & Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Econometric Issues when Modelling with a Mixture of I(1) and I(0) Variables," NCER Working Paper Series 97, National Centre for Econometric Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Mardi Dungey & Denise Osborn & Mala Raghavan, 2014. "International Transmissions to Australia: The Roles of the USA and Euro Area," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 90(291), pages 421-446, December.

  21. Adrian Pagan & Tim Robinson, 2011. "Assessing Some Models of the Impact of Financial Stress upon Business Cycles," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2011-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.

    Cited by:

    1. David Jacobs & Vanessa Rayner, 2012. "The Role of Credit Supply in the Australian Economy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2012-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.

  22. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2011. "Econometric Analysis and Prediction of Recurrent Events," CREATES Research Papers 2011-33, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

    Cited by:

    1. Chan, Felix & Pauwels, Laurent L. & Wongsosaputro, Johnathan, 2013. "The impact of serial correlation on testing for structural change in binary choice model: Monte Carlo evidence," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 175-189.

  23. Martin Fukac & Adrian R. Pagan, 2010. "Structural macro-econometric modelling in a policy environment," Research Working Paper RWP 10-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

    Cited by:

    1. Aliya Algozhina, 2012. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in an Emerging Open Economy: A Non-Ricardian DSGE Approach," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp476, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    2. Binder, Michael & Lieberknecht, Philipp & Quintana, Jorge & Wieland, Volker, 2017. "Model uncertainty in macroeconomics: On the implications of financial frictions," IMFS Working Paper Series 114, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    3. Fabio Bacchini & Cristina Brandimarte & Piero Crivelli & Roberta De Santis & Marco Fioramanti & Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio & Massimo Mancini & Carmine Pappalardo & D, 2013. "Building the core of the Istat system of models for forecasting the Italian economy: MeMo-It," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(1), pages 17-45.
    4. Durmus Ozdemir & Mustafa Kemal Gündoğdu, 2012. "Structural Macro econometric Model of Turkey; Impact of Structural Characteristics on Macroeconomic Indicators," EcoMod2012 3886, EcoMod.

  24. Luis Catão & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "The Credit Channel and Monetary Transmission in Brazil and Chile: A Structural VAR Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 579, Central Bank of Chile.

    Cited by:

    1. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "Commodity prices and BRIC and G3 liquidity: A SFAVEC approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 18-33.
    2. Viladegut, Hugo & Cabello, Miguel, 2014. "El canal de crédito en el Perú: Una aproximación SVAR," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 27, pages 51-66.
    3. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2011. "Econometric Analysis and Prediction of Recurrent Events," CREATES Research Papers 2011-33, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Christian Glocker & Pascal Towbin, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Effects Of Reserve Requirements," EcoMod2012 3850, EcoMod.
    5. Buffie, Edward F. & Airaudo, M. & Zanna, Felipe, 2018. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate management in less developed countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 159-184.
    6. Carlos J. García & Pablo González M. & Antonio Moncado S., 2013. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in Chile: a Structural Bayesian Approach," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(1), pages 24-63, April.
    7. Kornél Kisgergely, 2012. "Is there a carry trade channel of monetary policy in emerging countries?," MNB Working Papers 2012/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).

  25. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Can We Predict Recessions?," NCER Working Paper Series 69, National Centre for Econometric Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Patterns and Their Uses," NCER Working Paper Series 96, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    2. Rolando F. Peláez, 2015. "A recession‐and‐state forecasting model," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 81(4), pages 1025-1039, April.
    3. Peláez, Rolando F., 2015. "Market-timing the business cycle," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 55-64.
    4. Rolando F. Peláez, 2015. "Market‐timing the business cycle," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 55-64, September.
    5. Nicholas Taylor, 2014. "Economic forecast quality: information timeliness and data vintage effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 145-174, February.
    6. Kenny, Geoff & Morgan, Julian, 2011. "Some lessons from the financial crisis for the economic analysis," Occasional Paper Series 130, European Central Bank.
    7. Peláez, Rolando F., 2015. "A biannual recession-forecasting model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 384-393.
    8. Suarez, Javier & ,, 2018. "The Procyclicality of Expected Credit Loss Provisions," CEPR Discussion Papers 13135, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2015. "Can Macroeconomists Forecast Risk? Event-Based Evidence from the Euro-Area SPF," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 1-46, December.
    10. Tobias F. Rötheli, 2018. "Should business rely on business cycle forecasting?," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 26(1), pages 121-133, March.

  26. Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Can Turkish Recessions Be Predicted?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1027, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.

    Cited by:

    1. Zeynep Senyuz & Emre Yoldas & Ismail Onur Baycan, 2014. "Cyclical Dynamics of the Turkish Economy and the Stock Market," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 405-423, September.
    2. Emel Siklar & Ilyas Siklar, 2021. "Measuring and Analyzing the Common and Idiosyncratic Cycles: An Application for Turkish Manufacturing Industry," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 11(2), pages 279-300, June.

  27. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," CAMA Working Papers 2010-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Angela Abbate & Sandra Eickmeier & Esteban Prieto, 2020. "Financial shocks and inflation dynamics," Working Papers 2020-13, Swiss National Bank.
    2. Cross, Jamie & Nguyen, Bao H., 2017. "The relationship between global oil price shocks and China's output: A time-varying analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 79-91.
    3. Abhay Abhyankar, Bing Xu, and Jiayue Wang, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks and the Stock Market: Evidence from Japan," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    4. Segev, Nimrod, 2020. "Identifying the risk-Taking channel of monetary transmission and the connection to economic activity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    5. Martin Geiger & Johann Scharler, 2018. "How do consumers interpret the macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations? Evidence from U.S. survey data," Working Papers 2018-13, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    6. Blaise Gnimassoun & Marc Joëts & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2016. "On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies: The case of Canada," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-35, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    7. Ha,Jongrim & Stocker,Marc & Yilmazkuday,Hakan, 2019. "Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8780, The World Bank.
    8. Martin Geiger & Jochen Güntner, 2019. "How are oil supply shocks transmitted to the U.S. economy?," Economics working papers 2019-13, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    9. Morita, Hiroshi, 2014. "External shocks and Japanese business cycles: Evidence from a sign-restricted VAR model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 59-74.
    10. Erten Bilge & Tuzcuoglu Kerem, 2018. "Output Effects of Global Food Commodity Shocks," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, June.
    11. Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2016. "The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy," Working Papers EPRG 1604, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    12. Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian & Scharler, Johann, 2016. "Total factor productivity and the propagation of shocks: Empirical evidence and implications for the business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 335-346.
    13. An, Lian & Kim, Gil & Ren, Xiaomei, 2014. "Is devaluation expansionary or contractionary: Evidence based on vector autoregression with sign restrictions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 27-41.
    14. Kauko, Karlo & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2015. "Testing the global banking glut hypothesis," FinMaP-Working Papers 41, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    15. Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Stefan Laseen, 2016. "Financial Stability and Interest-Rate Policy: A Quantitative Assessment of Costs and Benefits," IMF Working Papers 2016/073, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Gustavo Adler & Ms. Carolina Osorio-Buitron, 2017. "Tipping the Scale? The Workings of Monetary Policy through Trade," IMF Working Papers 2017/142, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Klug, Thorsten & Mayer, Eric & Schuler, Tobias, 2021. "The corporate saving glut and the current account in Germany," Working Paper Series 2586, European Central Bank.
    18. Michal Franta, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in the Czech Republic: Evidence Based on Various Identification Approaches in a VAR Framework," Working Papers 2012/13, Czech National Bank.
    19. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Bao H. Nguyen, 2018. "On the China factor in international oil markets: A regime switching approach," Working Papers No 11/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    20. Lance A. Fisher & Hyeon-seung Huh, 2022. "Systematic Monetary Policy in a SVAR for Australia," Working papers 2022rwp-194, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    21. Stephan B. Bruns & Alessio Moneta & David I. Stern, 2019. "Estimating the Economy-Wide Rebound Effect Using Empirically Identified Structural Vector Autoregressions," LEM Papers Series 2019/27, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    22. Zsolt Darvas, 2012. "Monetary transmission in three central European economies- evidence from time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions," Bruegel Working Papers 722, Bruegel.
    23. Jakub Matějů, 2019. "What Drives the Strength of Monetary Policy Transmission?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(3), pages 59-87, September.
    24. Mathilde Lebrand & Garima Vasishtha & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2023. "Energy Price Shocks and Current Account Balances: Evidence from Emerging Market and Developing Economies," Working Papers 2305, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    25. Calvert Jump, Robert & Kohler, Karsten, 2022. "A history of aggregate demand and supply shocks for the United Kingdom, 1900 to 2016," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    26. Karamysheva, Madina, 2022. "How do fiscal adjustments work? An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    27. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2021. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy during the Great Recession," Economics Working Papers 2021-05, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    28. Elguellab, Ali & Ezzahid, Elhadj, 2023. "Dissecting the Moroccan business cycle: A trade-based identification of agricultural supply shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    29. Tölö, Eero & Miettinen, Paavo, 2018. "How do shocks to bank capital affect lending and growth?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2018, Bank of Finland.
    30. Ragna Alstadheim & Ørjan Robstad & Nikka Husom Vonen, 2017. "Financial imbalances, crisis probability and monetary policy in Norway," Working Paper 2017/21, Norges Bank.
    31. Candelon, Bertrand & Lieb, Lenard, 2013. "Fiscal policy in good and bad times," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2679-2694.
    32. Gehrke, Britta & Yao, Fang, 2016. "Persistence and Volatility of Real Exchange Rates: The Role of Supply Shocks Revisited," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145752, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    33. Meinen, Philipp & Röhe, Oke, 2018. "To sign or not to sign? On the response of prices to financial and uncertainty shocks," Discussion Papers 33/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    34. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2021. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 415, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    35. Andrea Silvestrini & Andrea Zaghini, 2015. "Financial shocks and the real economy in a nonlinear world: a survey of the theoretical and empirical literature," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 255, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    36. Nicolas Groshenny & Naveed Javed, 2023. "Dornbusch’s overshooting and the systematic component of monetary policy in SOE-SVARs," TEPP Working Paper 2023-08, TEPP.
    37. Cyril Couaillier & Valerio Scalone, 2020. "How does Financial Vulnerability amplify Housing and Credit Shocks?," Working papers 763, Banque de France.
    38. Matteo LUCIANI, "undated". "Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis," Working Papers wp2010-7, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    39. Makram El-Shagi, 2024. "Does the Fed Adhere to its Mandate? Estimating the Federal Reserve's Objective Function," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2024/3, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    40. Fabrice Dabiré & Hashmat Khan & Patrick Richard & Jean-François Rouillard, 2021. "Characterizing G-multipliers in Canada," Carleton Economic Papers 21-14, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 14 Mar 2023.
    41. Barigozzi, Matteo & Conti, Antonio & Luciani, Matteo, 2012. "Do Euro area countries respond asymmetrically to the common monetary policy?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 43344, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    42. Stéphane Dées & Jochen Güntner, 2014. "The International Dimension of Confidence Shocks," Economics working papers 2014-05, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    43. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Boubtane, Ekrame & Coulibaly, Dramane, 2019. "Immigration and public finances in OECD countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 116-151.
    44. Saidul Islam, 2024. "Investment-specific technology shocks and business cycle: evidence from a sign restriction approach," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 249-283, June.
    45. Ruben Hipp, 2020. "On Causal Networks of Financial Firms: Structural Identification via Non-parametric Heteroskedasticity," Staff Working Papers 20-42, Bank of Canada.
    46. Fengler, Matthias & Polivka, Jeannine, 2022. "Structural Volatility Impulse Response Analysis," Economics Working Paper Series 2211, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, revised Nov 2022.
    47. William Ginn, 2024. "Agricultural fluctuations and global economic conditions," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(3), pages 1037-1056, August.
    48. Helmut Herwartz & Martin Plödt, 2016. "Simulation Evidence on Theory-based and Statistical Identification under Volatility Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(1), pages 94-112, February.
    49. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain: Assessing the role of unconventional policies for a decade of household data," Papers 1912.09702, arXiv.org.
    50. IWATA, Yasuharu & IIBOSHI, Hirokuni, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," MPRA Paper 116355, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    51. Finlay, Richard & Jääskelä, Jarkko P., 2014. "Credit supply shocks and the global financial crisis in three small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 270-276.
    52. Michal Franta & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlík, 2018. "Tracking Monetary-Fiscal Interactions across Time and Space," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(3), pages 167-227, June.
    53. Szafranek, Karol & Szafrański, Grzegorz & Leszczyńska-Paczesna, Agnieszka, 2024. "Inflation returns. Revisiting the role of external and domestic shocks with Bayesian structural VAR," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 789-810.
    54. Sun, Hang & Bos, Jaap W.B. & Li, Zhuo, 2017. "In the Nick of Time: A Heteroskedastic SVAR Model and Its Application to the Crude Oil Futures Market," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    55. Stéphane Dees, 2017. "The role of confidence shocks in business cycles and their global dimension," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 151, pages 48-65.
    56. Tavares Garcia, Francisco & Cross, Jamie L., 2024. "The impact of monetary policy on income inequality: Does inflation targeting matter?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    57. Cheng, Chak Hung Jack & Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Hankins, William B. & Stone, Anna-Leigh, 2018. "Partisan conflict, policy uncertainty and aggregate corporate cash holdings," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 78-90.
    58. Andrejs Zlobins, 2019. "Country-Level Effects of the ECB's Expanded Asset Purchase Programme," Working Papers 2019/02, Latvijas Banka.
    59. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2020. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy during Extreme Events," Economics Working Papers 2020-11, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    60. Dybczak, Kamil & Melecky, Martin, 2014. "EU fiscal stance vulnerability: Are the old members the gold members?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 87-101.
    61. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung, 2019. "An IV framework for combining sign and long-run parametric restrictions in SVARs," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    62. Walentin, Karl, 2014. "Business cycle implications of mortgage spreads," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 62-77.
    63. Sangyup Choi, 2019. "Changes in the Effects of Bank Lending Shocks and the Development of Public Debt Markets," Working papers 2019rwp-140, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    64. Uhrin, Gábor B. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2016. "Monetary policy shocks, set-identifying restrictions, and asset prices: A benchmarking approach for analyzing set-identified models," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 295, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    65. Erdenebat Bataa & Marwan Izzeldin & Denise Osborn, 2015. "Changes in the global oil market," Working Papers 75761696, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    66. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2011. "How Do Credit Supply Shocks Propagate Internationally? A GVAR approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 8720, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    67. Hiroshi Morita, 2017. "Effects of Anticipated Fiscal Policy Shock on Macroeconomic Dynamics in Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 364-393, September.
    68. Martin M. Andreasen & Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2021. "Why Does Risk Matter More in Recessions than in Expansions?," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0275, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    69. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2023. "Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation: How Important are Oil Prices?," CEPR Discussion Papers 17834, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    70. Cosmas Dery & Apostolos Serletis, 2021. "Disentangling the Effects of Uncertainty, Monetary Policy and Leverage Shocks on the Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1029-1065, October.
    71. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2016. "Unconventional US Monetary Policy: New Tools, Same Channels?," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp222, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    72. Stephen Nicar, 2015. "International Spillovers from U.S. Fiscal Policy Shocks," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 1081-1097, November.
    73. Alessandro Cantelmo & Giovanni Melina, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Relative Price of Durable Goods," CESifo Working Paper Series 5328, CESifo.
    74. Ine Van Robays, 2012. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and the Impact of Oil Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 3937, CESifo.
    75. Nelson Lind & Natalia Ramondo, 2018. "Trade with Correlation," NBER Working Papers 24380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    76. Hjortsø, Ida & Forbes, Kristin & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2018. "The Shocks Matter: Improving our Estimates of Exchange Rate Pass-Through," CEPR Discussion Papers 13037, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    77. Sona Benecka & Ludmila Fadejeva & Martin Feldkircher, 2018. "Spillovers from Euro Area Monetary Policy: A Focus on Emerging Europe," Working Papers 2018/2, Czech National Bank.
    78. Carlos Madeira & João Madeira & Paulo Santos Monteiro, 2023. "The origins of monetary policy disagreement: the role of supply and demand shocks," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 993, Central Bank of Chile.
    79. Mansur, Alfan, 2015. "Identifying Shocks on the Economic Fluctuations in Indonesia and US: The Role of Oil Price Shocks in a Structural Vector Autoregression Model," MPRA Paper 94018, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Jun 2015.
    80. Martin Geiger & Eric Mayer & Johann Scharler, 2020. "Inequality and the business cycle: evidence from U.S. survey data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(31), pages 3418-3435, June.
    81. William A. Barnett & Hyun Park, 2024. "Have credit card services become important to monetary aggregation? An application of sign restricted Bayesian VAR," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 2321422-232, December.
    82. Benjamin Beckers & Kerstin Bernoth, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Mispricing in Stock Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1605, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    83. Hamish Burrell & Joaquin Vespignani, 2019. "The industrial impact of economic uncertainty shocks in Australia," CAMA Working Papers 2019-89, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    84. Lian An & Mark A. Wynne & Ren Zhang, 2020. "Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence Based on a Narrative Sign Approach," Globalization Institute Working Papers 379, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    85. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2024. "Geopolitical Risks and Energy Uncertainty: Implications for Global and Domestic Energy Prices," Working Papers 2413, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    86. Eickmeier, Sandra & Metiu, Norbert & Prieto, Esteban, 2016. "Time-varying Volatility, Financial Intermediation and Monetary Policy," IWH Discussion Papers 19/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    87. Marianna Riggi & Fabrizio Venditti, 2015. "The time varying effect of oil price shocks on euro-area exports," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1035, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    88. Ionuț JIANU, 2016. "A comprehensive view on the manifestations of aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks in Greece, Ireland, Italy and Portugal," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(607), S), pages 207-224, Summer.
    89. Erkmen G. Aslim & Shin‐Yi Chou & Kuhelika De, 2024. "Business cycles and healthcare employment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(9), pages 2123-2161, September.
    90. Woon Gyu Choi & Taesu Kang & Geun-Young Kim & Byongju Lee, 2017. "Global Liquidity Transmission to Emerging Market Economies, and Their Policy Responses," IMF Working Papers 2017/222, International Monetary Fund.
    91. Pagliacci, Carolina, 2020. "Financial constraints and inflation in Latin America: The impacts of bond financing and depreciations on supply inflation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 379-397.
    92. Kilian, Lutz, 2019. "Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling," CEPR Discussion Papers 14047, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    93. Yossi Yakhin & Natalya Presman, 2013. "A Flow-Accounting Model of the Labor Market: An Application to Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2013.05, Bank of Israel.
    94. Hanson, Samuel G. & Malkhozov, Aytek & Venter, Gyuri, 2024. "Demand-and-supply imbalance risk and long-term swap spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    95. Francesco Furlanetto & Francesco Ravazzolo & Samad Sarferaz, 2014. "Identification of financial factors in economic fluctuations," KOF Working papers 14-364, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    96. Francesco Simone Lucidi, 2021. "The Misalignment of Fiscal Multipliers in Italian Regions," Working Papers in Public Economics 204, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    97. Prüser, Jan, 2021. "The horseshoe prior for time-varying parameter VARs and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    98. Cai, Yifei & Wu, Yanrui, 2021. "Time-varying interactions between geopolitical risks and renewable energy consumption," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 116-137.
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    100. Davor Kunovac & Mariarosaria Comunale, 2017. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area," Working Papers 46, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    101. Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," CESifo Working Paper Series 10930, CESifo.
    102. Sébastien Bock & Idriss Fontaine, 2020. "Routine-Biased Technological Change and Hours Worked over the Business Cycle," PSE Working Papers halshs-02982145, HAL.
    103. Andrea Vaona, 2015. "Inflation gifts restrictions for structural VARs: evidence from the US," Working Papers 16/2015, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    104. Konstantinos Chisiridis & Kostas Mouratidis & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2018. "The North-South Divide, the Euro and the World," Working Papers 377, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    105. Christiane Baumeister & James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Inference in Structural Vector Autoregressions when the Identifying Assumptions are not Fully Believed: Re-evaluating the Role of Monetary Policy in Economic Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 7048, CESifo.
    106. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2020. "Joint Bayesian Inference about Impulse Responses in VAR Models," Working Papers 2022, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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    108. Masud Alam, 2021. "Output, Employment, and Price Effects of U.S. Narrative Tax Changes: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Approach," Papers 2106.10844, arXiv.org.
    109. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    110. Martin Geiger & Johann Scharler, 2021. "How Do People Interpret Macroeconomic Shocks? Evidence from U.S. Survey Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 813-843, June.
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    389. Jha, Shikha & Mallick, Sushanta K. & Park, Donghyun & Quising, Pilipinas F., 2014. "Effectiveness of countercyclical fiscal policy: Evidence from developing Asia," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 82-98.
    390. Sam Ouliaris & Adrian Pagan, 2016. "A Method for Working with Sign Restrictions in Structural Equation Modelling," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 605-622, October.
    391. Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Lucyna Gornicka, 2020. "Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time?," IMF Working Papers 2020/024, International Monetary Fund.
    392. Breitenlechner, Max & Scharler, Johann, 2017. "Decomposing the U.S. Great Depression: How important were Loan Supply Shocks?," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168208, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    393. Debes, Sebastian & Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian, 2014. "Towards a consumer sentiment channel of monetary policy," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 91, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    394. Ömer YALÇINKAYA & Muhammet DAŞTAN, 2020. "Effects of Global Economic, Political and Geopolitical Uncertainties on the Turkish Economy: A SVAR Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 97-116, March.
    395. Cieslak, Anna & Pang, Hao, 2021. "Common shocks in stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 880-904.
    396. Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2014. "What do VARs Tell Us about the Impact of a Credit Supply Shock? An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 716, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    397. Breitenlechner, Max & Nuutilainen, Riikka, 2019. "China's monetary policy and the loan market: How strong is the credit channel in China?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    398. Charles Rahal,, 2016. "Housing markets and unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 67-80.
    399. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung, 2016. "Monetary policy and exchange rates: Further evidence using a new method for implementing sign restrictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 177-191.
    400. Nicolas Eterovic & Dalibor Eterovic, 2022. "Stocks, Bonds and the US Dollar - Measuring Domestic and International Market Developments in an Emerging Market," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 964, Central Bank of Chile.
    401. Markku Lanne & Mika Meitz & Pentti Saikkonen, 2015. "Identification and estimation of non-Gaussian structural vector autoregressions," CREATES Research Papers 2015-16, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    402. Dóra Siklós, 2016. "Capital Adequacy Regulations in Hungary: Did It Really Matter?," Working Papers 11, European Stability Mechanism.
    403. Jääskelä, Jarkko P. & Jennings, David, 2011. "Monetary policy and the exchange rate: Evaluation of VAR models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1358-1374.
    404. Caputo, Rodrigo & Pedersen, Michael, 2020. "The changing nature of the real exchange rate: The role of central bank preferences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 445-464.
    405. Andrej Sokol & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, 2017. "The International Credit Channel of U.S. Monetary Policy and Financial Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 724, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    406. Julio Carrillo, 2017. "Inquiry on the Transmission of U.S. Aggregate Shocks to Mexico: A SVAR Approach," 2017 Meeting Papers 1509, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    407. Herwartz, Helmut, 2014. "Structural analysis with independent innovations," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 208, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    408. Hyeon-seung Huh & Won Soon Kwon, 2015. "Sources of Fluctuations in the Real Exchange Rates and Trade Balances of the G-7: A Sign Restriction VAR Approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 715-737, September.
    409. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    410. Geiger, Martin & Scharler, Johann, 2016. "How do Macroeconomic Shocks affect Expectations? Lessons from Survey Data," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145747, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    411. Helmut Herwartz & Simone Maxand & Hannes Rohloff, 2022. "The Link between Monetary Policy, Stock Prices, and House Prices—Evidence from a Statistical Identification Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(5), pages 1-53, December.
    412. S Ouliaris & A R Pagan, 2015. "A New Method for Working With Sign Restrictions in SVARs," NCER Working Paper Series 105, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    413. Metiu, Norbert & Hilberg, Björn & Grill, Michael, 2015. "Financial frictions and global spillovers," Discussion Papers 04/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    414. Wee Chian Koh, 2017. "The effects of macroeconomic shocks on the Brunei economy: a sign restriction approach," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 414-428, July.
    415. Fisher Lance A. & Huh Hyeon-seung, 2020. "Combining sign and parametric restrictions in SVARs by utilising Givens rotations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(3), pages 1-19, June.
    416. Feldkircher, Martin & Huber, Florian, 2016. "The international transmission of US shocks—Evidence from Bayesian global vector autoregressions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 167-188.
    417. John W. Keating, 2013. "What Do We Learn from Blanchard and Quah Decompositions If Aggregate Demand May Not be Long-Run Neutral?," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201302, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    418. Luca Fanelli & Antonio Marsi, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: A Tale of Three Shocks," Working Papers wp1164, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    419. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño & John Castro-Pantoja, 2017. "Perturbaciones macroeconómicas, tasa de cambio y pass-through sobre precios," Borradores de Economia 982, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    420. Forbes, Kristin & Hjortsoe, Ida & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2017. "Shocks versus structure: explaining differences in exchange rate pass-through across countries and time," Discussion Papers 50, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    421. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2013. "Global and regional business cycles. Shocks and propagations," Working Paper 2013/08, Norges Bank.
    422. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2022. "Decomposing Supply and Demand Driven Inflation," Working Paper Series 2022-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    423. Zwick, Lina, 2015. "International liquidity shocks and domestic loan supply in the euro area," Ruhr Economic Papers 564, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    424. Hjortsoe, Ida & Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2018. "How does financial liberalisation affect the influence of monetary policy on the current account?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 93-123.
    425. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung, 2023. "Systematic monetary policy in a SVAR for Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    426. Herwartz, Helmut & Plödt, Martin, 2016. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks: Evidence from a statistical identification approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 30-44.
    427. Max Breitenlechner & Martin Geiger & Daniel Gründler & Johann Scharler, 2024. "Sequencing the COVID‐19 Recession in the USA: What Were the Macroeconomic Drivers?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(1), pages 119-136, February.
    428. Tommy Wu & Michael Cheng & Ken Wong, 2017. "Bayesian analysis of Hong Kong's housing price dynamics," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 312-331, August.
    429. Sara Boni & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2022. "A Structural Analysis of Unemployment-Generating Supply Shocks with an Application to the US Pharmaceutical Industry," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS94, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    430. Herwartz, Helmut & Wang, Shu, 2023. "Point estimation in sign-restricted SVARs based on independence criteria with an application to rational bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    431. Hiroshi Morita, 2017. "Effects of Anticipated Fiscal Policy Shock on Macroeconomic Dynamics in Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 364-393, September.
    432. Benecká, Soňa & Fadejeva, Ludmila & Feldkircher, Martin, 2020. "The impact of euro Area monetary policy on Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1310-1333.
    433. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2023. "Understanding the global drivers of inflation: How important are oil prices?11We would like to thank Xuguang Simon Sheng, Guest Editor, and two anonymous reviewers for their detailed feedback. We also," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).

  28. Tim M Christensen & Stan Hurn & Adrian Pagan, 2009. "Detecting Common Dynamics in Transitory Components," NCER Working Paper Series 49, National Centre for Econometric Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2021. "Reduced Rank Regression Models in Economics and Finance," CEIS Research Paper 525, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 Nov 2021.
    2. Hecq, A.W. & Issler, J.V., 2012. "A common-feature approach for testing present-value restrictions with financial data," Research Memorandum 006, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    3. X. Liu & A.R. Pagan & T. Robinson, 2018. "Critically assessing estimated DSGE models: A case study of a multi-sector model," CAMA Working Papers 2018-04, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

  29. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2009. "An econometric analysis of some models for constructed binary time series," CAMA Working Papers 2009-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts: A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching VAR Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-142/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Nov 2014.
    2. Makram El-Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Qual VAR revisited: Good forecast, bad story," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 19, pages 293-322, November.
    3. Erik Kole & Dick Dijk, 2017. "How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 120-139, January.
    4. Candelon, B. & Dumitrescu, E-I. & Hurlin, C., 2010. "Currency crises early warning systems: why they should be dynamic," Research Memorandum 047, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    5. Bertrand Candelon & Elena-Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin & Franz C. Palm, 2013. "Multivariate Dynamic Probit Models: An Application to Financial Crises Mutation," Advances in Econometrics, in: VAR Models in Macroeconomics – New Developments and Applications: Essays in Honor of Christopher A. Sims, volume 32, pages 395-427, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    6. Yongsung Chang & Sunoong Hwang, 2011. "Asymmetric Phase Shifts in the U.S. Industrial Production Cycles," RCER Working Papers 564, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    7. Park, Byeong U. & Simar, Léopold & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2017. "Nonparametric estimation of dynamic discrete choice models for time series data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 97-120.
    8. Meller, Barbara & Metiu, Norbert, 2017. "The synchronization of credit cycles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 98-111.
    9. Don Harding, 2010. "Applying shape and phase restrictions in generalized dynamic categorical models of the business cycle," Working Papers 2010.05, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    10. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106, Elsevier.
    11. Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Patterns and Their Uses," NCER Working Paper Series 96, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    12. Bertrand Candelon & Elena-Ivona DUMITRESCU & Christophe HURLIN & Franz C. PALM, 2011. "Modelling Financial Crises Mutation," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1238, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    13. Dungey, Mardi & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Lestano,, 2015. "The internationalisation of financial crises: Banking and currency crises 1883–2008," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 29-47.
    14. Beladi, Hamid & Chao, Chi Chur & Hu, May, 2016. "A macro-analysis of financial decisions: An examination of special dividend announcements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 162-181.
    15. Jamel Gatfaoui & Eric Girardin, 2015. "Comovement of Chinese provincial business cycles," Post-Print hal-01456105, HAL.
    16. Chan, Felix & Pauwels, Laurent L. & Wongsosaputro, Johnathan, 2013. "The impact of serial correlation on testing for structural change in binary choice model: Monte Carlo evidence," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 175-189.
    17. Raffaele Mattera, 2023. "Forecasting binary outcomes in soccer," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 115-134, June.
    18. Meller, Barbara & Metiu, Norbert, 2015. "The synchronization of European credit cycles," Discussion Papers 20/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Hu, May & Chao, Chi-Chur & Malone, Chris & Young, Martin, 2017. "Real determinants of stock split announcements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 574-598.
    20. Ms. Natasha X Che & Yoko Shinagawa, 2014. "Financial Soundness Indicators and the Characteristics of Financial Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2014/014, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Francis Bismans & Reynald Majetti, 2013. "Forecasting recessions using financial variables: the French case," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 419-433, April.
    22. Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Kenneth Lindsay, 2019. "Modelling and forecasting wind drought," Working Paper Series 18219, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    23. Park, Byeong U. & Simar, Leopold & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2013. "Non-Parametric Approach to Dynamic Time Series Discrete Choice Models," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2013052, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).

  30. Mardi Dungey & Adrian Pagan, 2008. "Extending an SVAR Model of the Australian Economy," NCER Working Paper Series 21, National Centre for Econometric Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Yuanyuan Hao & Mengyuan Kong, 2022. "Economic effect of the golf simulation industry in Korea: an analysis based on the SVAR model," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Ahmed, Khalid & Khan, Bareerah, 2024. "China's post-pandemic energy rebound and climate targets under the current regulations and green innovation capacity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    3. Mr. Shengzu Wang & Ms. Patrizia Tumbarello, 2010. "What Drives House Prices in Australia? A+L4584 Cross-Country Approach," IMF Working Papers 2010/291, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Afrin, Sadia, 2020. "Does oligopolistic banking friction amplify small open economy's business cycles? Evidence from Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 119-138.
    5. Knop, Stephen J. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2014. "The sectorial impact of commodity price shocks in Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 257-271.
    6. Dungey, Mardi & Vehbi, Tugrul, 2015. "The influences of international output shocks from the US and China on ASEAN economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 59-71.
    7. Mardi Dungey & M.Tugrul Vehbi, 2011. "A SVECM Model of the UK Economy and The Term Premium," CAMA Working Papers 2011-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Canova, Fabio & Bluwstein, Kristina, 2015. "Beggar-thy-neighbor? The international effects of ECB unconventional monetary policy measures," CEPR Discussion Papers 10856, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Leu, Shawn Chen-Yu, 2011. "A New Keynesian SVAR model of the Australian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 157-168, January.
    10. Catalán, Mario & Hoffmaister, Alexander W., 2022. "When banks punch back: Macrofinancial feedback loops in stress tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    11. Mardi Dungey & Adrian Pagan, 2008. "Extending an SVAR Model of the Australian Economy," NCER Working Paper Series 21, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    12. Mardi Dungey & Denise R Osborn, 2009. "Modelling International Linkages for Large Open Economies: US and Euro Area," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 121, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    13. Raghavan, Mala & Athanasopoulos, George, 2019. "Analysis of shock transmissions to a small open emerging economy using a SVARMA model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 187-203.
    14. Panagiotelis, Anastasios & Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Jiang, Bin & Vahid, Farshid, 2019. "Macroeconomic forecasting for Australia using a large number of predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 616-633.
    15. Philip Liu, 2010. "The Effects of International Shocks on Australia's Business Cycle," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(275), pages 486-503, December.
    16. Renée A. Fry & Vance L. Martin & Nicholas Voukelatos, 2010. "Overvaluation in Australian Housing and Equity Markets: Wealth Effects or Monetary Policy?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(275), pages 465-485, December.
    17. Sin, Chor-yiu (CY), 2015. "The economic fundamental and economic policy uncertainty of Mainland China and their impacts on Taiwan and Hong Kong," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 298-311.
    18. Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "On the differential impact of monetary policy across states/territories and its determinants in Australia: Evidence and new methodology from a small open economy," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-13.
    19. Edda Claus & Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry, 2006. "Monetary Policy In Illiquid Markets: Options For A Small Open Economy," CAMA Working Papers 2006-17, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    20. Tafirenyika SUNDE, 2015. "The effects of monetary policy on unemployment in Namibia," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 256-274, December.
    21. Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Purevdorj, Munkhbayar & Batjargal, Anand, 2024. "The macroeconomic effects of exchange rate movements in a commodity-exporting developing economy," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    22. David Jacobs & Vanessa Rayner, 2012. "The Role of Credit Supply in the Australian Economy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2012-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    23. Jarkko P. Jääskelä & Kristoffer P. Nimark, 2011. "A Medium-Scale New Keynesian Open Economy Model of Australia," Working Papers 588, Barcelona School of Economics.
    24. Afrin, Sadia, 2017. "Monetary policy transmission in Bangladesh: Exploring the lending channel," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 60-80.
    25. Jamie L. Cross & Aubrey Poon, 2020. "On the contribution of international shocks in Australian business cycle fluctuations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2613-2637, December.
    26. Jarkko Jääskelä & Penelope Smith, 2011. "Terms of Trade Shocks: What are They and What Do They Do?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2011-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    27. Manalo, Josef & Perera, Dilhan & Rees, Daniel M., 2015. "Exchange rate movements and the Australian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 53-62.
    28. Cross, Jamie, 2019. "On the reduced macroeconomic volatility of the Australian economy: Good policy or good luck?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 174-186.
    29. Gunasinghe, Chandika & Selvanathan, E.A. & Naranpanawa, Athula & Forster, John, 2020. "The impact of fiscal shocks on real GDP and income inequality: What do Australian data say?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 250-270.
    30. P. Fraser & G. A. Macdonald & A. W. Mullineux, 2014. "Regional Monetary Policy: An Australian Perspective," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(8), pages 1419-1433, August.
    31. Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2018. "Australia saved from the financial crisis by policy or by exports?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 118-135.
    32. Andrej Sokol & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, 2017. "The International Credit Channel of U.S. Monetary Policy and Financial Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 724, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    33. Chris Murphy, 2020. "Decisions in Designing an Australian Macroeconomic Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(314), pages 252-270, September.
    34. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung, 2023. "Systematic monetary policy in a SVAR for Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).

  31. Adrian R. Pagan & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2008. "Econometric Analysis of Structural Systems with Permanent and Transitory Shocks," Discussion Papers 2008-04, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    Cited by:

    1. Girish Bahal & Mehdi Raissi & Volodymyr Tulin, 2018. "Crowding-Out or Crowding-In Public and Private Investment in India," NCAER Working Papers 114, National Council of Applied Economic Research.
    2. Yao, Wenying & Kam, Timothy & Vahid, Farshid, 2017. "On weak identification in structural VARMA models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 1-6.
    3. Stephan B. Bruns & Alessio Moneta & David I. Stern, 2019. "Estimating the Economy-Wide Rebound Effect Using Empirically Identified Structural Vector Autoregressions," LEM Papers Series 2019/27, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    4. Accolley, Delali, 2018. "Accounting for Busines Cycles in Canada: II. The Role of Money," MPRA Paper 85481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ouliaris, Sam & Rochon, Celine, 2021. "Pre- and Post-Global Financial Crisis Policy Multipliers#," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    6. Raghavan, Mala & Dungey, Mardi, 2014. "Should ASEAN-5 Monetary Policymakers Act Pre-emptively Against Stock Market Bubbles?," Working Papers 2014-04, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 2014.
    7. Lance A. Fisher & Hyeon-seung Huh, 2016. "On the econometric modelling of consumer sentiment shocks in SVARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1033-1051, November.
    8. Pentecôte, J.-S., 2010. "Long-run identifying restrictions on VARs within the AS-AD framework," MPRA Paper 34660, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Rita Duarte, 2009. "The dynamic effects of shocks to wages and prices in the United States and the Euro Area," Working Papers w200915, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. Yao, Wenying & Kam, Timothy & Vahid, Farshid, 2014. "VAR(MA), what is it good for? more bad news for reduced-form estimation and inference," Working Papers 2014-14, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    11. Katrin Assenmacher & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2009. "A VECX* model of the Swiss economy," Economic Studies 2009-06, Swiss National Bank.
    12. Mardi Dungey & Denise R. Osborn, 2020. "The Gains from Catch‐up for China and the USA: An Empirical Framework," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(314), pages 350-365, September.
    13. Antonio Ribba, 2011. "On some neglected implications of the Fisher effect," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 451-470, April.
    14. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
    15. Martin Bruns & Helmut Lutkepohl, 2024. "Heteroskedastic Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified via Long-run Restrictions," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2024-06, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    16. Chevillon, Guillaume & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & Zhan, Zhaoguo, 2016. "Robust inference in structural VARs with long-run restrictions," ESSEC Working Papers WP1702, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    17. James Hansen, 2011. "Does Equity Mispricing Influence Household and Firm Decisions?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2011-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    18. Dees, Stephane & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, L. Vanessa & Smith, Ron P., 2008. "Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a Global Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 3298, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Mardi Dungey & M.Tugrul Vehbi, 2011. "A SVECM Model of the UK Economy and The Term Premium," CAMA Working Papers 2011-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    20. Adam Traczyk, 2013. "Financial integration and the term structure of interest rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1267-1305, December.
    21. Laura Bisio & Andrea Faccini, 2010. "Does Cointegration Matter? An Analysis in a RBC Perspective," Working Papers in Public Economics 133, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    22. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Structural Analysis of Vector Autoregressive Models," Papers 2312.06402, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    23. Mardi Dungey & Adrian Pagan, 2008. "Extending an SVAR Model of the Australian Economy," NCER Working Paper Series 21, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    24. Helmut Lütkepohl & Aleksei Netšunajev, 2018. "The Relation between Monetary Policy and the Stock Market in Europe," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-14, August.
    25. Hyeon-Seung Huh & David Kim, 2014. "Do SVAR Models Justify Discarding the Technology-Shock-Driven Real Business Cycle Hypothesis?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 90(288), pages 98-118, March.
    26. Philip Liu, 2010. "The Effects of International Shocks on Australia's Business Cycle," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(275), pages 486-503, December.
    27. Karin Klieber, 2023. "Non-linear dimension reduction in factor-augmented vector autoregressions," Papers 2309.04821, arXiv.org.
    28. Badarau-Semenescu, Cristina & Ndiaye, Cheikh Tidiane, 2010. "Politique économique et transmission des chocs dans la zone euro," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 86(1), pages 35-77, mars.
    29. Dobromił Serwa & Piotr Wdowiński, 2017. "Modeling Macro-Financial Linkages: Combined Impulse Response Functions in SVAR Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(4), pages 323-357, December.
    30. Dzmitry Kruk, 2016. "SVAR Approach for Extracting Inflation Expectations Given Severe Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Belarus," BEROC Working Paper Series 39, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    31. Houari, Oussama, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and business cycles in the US: New insights from the last three decades," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    32. Mardi Dungey & Denise Osborn & Mala Raghavan, 2014. "International Transmissions to Australia: The Roles of the USA and Euro Area," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 90(291), pages 421-446, December.
    33. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Velinov, Anton, 2014. "Structural vector autoregressions: Checking identifying long-run restrictions via heteroskedasticity," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2014-009, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    34. Herwartz, Helmut & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2014. "Structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching: Combining conventional with statistical identification of shocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 104-116.
    35. Sin, Chor-yiu (CY), 2015. "The economic fundamental and economic policy uncertainty of Mainland China and their impacts on Taiwan and Hong Kong," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 298-311.
    36. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Lippi & Matteo Luciani, 2014. "Dynamic Factor Models, Cointegration and Error Correction Mechanisms," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-14, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    37. Lance A Fisher & Syeon-seung Huh & Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Econometric Issues when Modelling with a Mixture of I(1) and I(0) Variables," NCER Working Paper Series 97, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    38. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry, 2007. "The Identification Of Fiscal And Monetary Policy In A Structural Var," CAMA Working Papers 2007-29, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    39. David Genesove & James Hansen, 2014. "Predicting Dwelling Prices with Consideration of the Sales Mechanism," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2014-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    40. Sima Siami-Namini, 2017. "China's Economy and the Global Financial Crisis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 259-265.
    41. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2010. "Cointegration, long-run structural modelling and weak exogeneity: Two models of the UK economy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 108-116, September.
    42. Philip Chindamo & Vance L. Martin, 2022. "The Dynamics of Structural Transformation in Australia, 1960–2020," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 98(322), pages 296-315, September.
    43. Varang Wiriyawit & Benjamin Wong, 2014. "Structural VARs, Deterministic and Stochastic Trends: Does Detrending Matter?," CAMA Working Papers 2014-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    44. Goran Petrevski & Borce Trenovski & Biljana Tashevska, 2019. "The effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies in a small open economy – the case of Macedonia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 805-821, November.
    45. Markku Lanne & Helmut Luetkepohl & Katarzyna Maciejowska, 2009. "Structural Vector Autoregressions with Markov Switching," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/06, European University Institute.
    46. Holly, S. & Petrella, I., 2008. "Factor demand linkages and the business cycle: Interpreting aggregate fluctuations as sectoral fluctuations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0827, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    47. Mark Caputo & Tim Robinson & Hao Wang, 2013. "The Relationship between Bulk Commodity and Chinese Steel Prices," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 13-18, September.
    48. Emanuele BACCHIOCCHI & Luca FANELLI, 2012. "Identification in structural vector autoregressive models with structural changes," Departmental Working Papers 2012-16, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    49. Binet, Marie-Estelle & Pentecôte, Jean-Sébastien, 2015. "Macroeconomic idiosyncrasies and European monetary unification: A sceptical long run view," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 412-423.
    50. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Efrem Castelnuovo & Luca Fanelli, 2014. "Gimme a break! Identification and estimation of the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks in the U.S," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0181, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    51. Tevdovski, Dragan & Petrevski, Goran & Bogoev, Jane, 2016. "The effects of macroeconomic policies under fixed exchange rates: A Bayesian VAR analysis," MPRA Paper 73461, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Jun 2016.
    52. Gunasinghe, Chandika & Selvanathan, E.A. & Naranpanawa, Athula & Forster, John, 2020. "The impact of fiscal shocks on real GDP and income inequality: What do Australian data say?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 250-270.
    53. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung & Otto, Glenn, 2012. "Structural cointegrated models of US consumption and wealth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1111-1124.
    54. Kevin D. Hoover, 2020. "The Discovery of Long-Run Causal Order: A Preliminary Investigation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-25, August.
    55. Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон) & Turuntseva, Marina (Турунцева, Марина), 2015. "Theoretical Aspects of Modeling of the SVAR [Теоретические Аспекты Моделирования Svar]," Published Papers mak8, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    56. John Foster, 2017. "Prior Commitment and Uncertainty in Complex Economic Systems: Reinstating History in the Core of Economic Analysis," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 64(4), pages 392-418, September.
    57. Njenga Carolyn N & Sherris Michael, 2011. "Longevity Risk and the Econometric Analysis of Mortality Trends and Volatility," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-54, July.
    58. Genesove, David & Hansen, James, 2016. "The Role of Auctions and Negotiation in Housing Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 11392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    59. Emanuele BACCHIOCCHI, 2011. "Identification in structural VAR models with different volatility regimes," Departmental Working Papers 2011-39, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    60. , Le Thanh Tung, 2021. "Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy and Price Volatility: Evidence from an Emerging Economy," OSF Preprints 7u56v, Center for Open Science.
    61. Martin Bruns & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2024. "Heteroskedastic Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified via Long-run Restrictions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2103, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    62. Klieber, Karin, 2024. "Non-linear dimension reduction in factor-augmented vector autoregressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

  32. Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2008. "Limited Information Estimation and Evaluation of DSGE Models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/11, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

    Cited by:

    1. Pagan, Adrian & Robinson, Tim, 2022. "Excess shocks can limit the economic interpretation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko & Norman R. Swanson, 2010. "International evidence on the efficacy of new‐Keynesian models of inflation persistence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 31-54, January.
    3. William Nordhaus, 2018. "Evolution of modeling of the economics of global warming: changes in the DICE model, 1992–2017," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(4), pages 623-640, June.
    4. Fabio Milani & Sung Ho Park, 2019. "Expectations and Macro-Housing Interactions in a Small Open Economy: Evidence from Korea," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 375-402, April.
    5. Fabio Milani, 2009. "Expectations, Learning, and the Changing Relationship between Oil Prices and the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 080923, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    6. Dées, Stéphane & Pesaran, Hashem & Smith, Vanessa & Smith, Ron P., 2010. "Supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in a multi-country New Keynesian Model," Working Paper Series 1239, European Central Bank.
    7. Ferroni, Filippo, 2009. "Trend agnostic one step estimation of DSGE models," MPRA Paper 14550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Aliya Algozhina, 2012. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in an Emerging Open Economy: A Non-Ricardian DSGE Approach," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp476, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    9. Luca Guerrieri & Christopher J. Gust & J. David López-Salido, 2008. "International competition and inflation: a New Keynesian perspective," International Finance Discussion Papers 918, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    11. Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R. & Meenagh, David, 2012. "Testing macroeconomic models by indirect inference on unfiltered data," CEPR Discussion Papers 9058, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Mardi Dungey & Denise R Osborn, 2009. "Modelling International Linkages for Large Open Economies: US and Euro Area," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 121, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    13. Kuzman, Tanja & Lazarevic, Jelisaveta & Nedeljkovic, Milan, 2022. "Capital flows liberalisation and macroprudential policies: The effects on credit cycles in emerging economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 602-619.
    14. Ye Lu & Adrian Pagan, 2023. "To Boost or Not to Boost? That is the Question," Working Papers 2023-05, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    15. Gunnar Bårdsen & Luca Fanelli, 2015. "Frequentist Evaluation of Small DSGE Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 307-322, July.
    16. Martin Fukac & Adrian R. Pagan, 2010. "Structural macro-econometric modelling in a policy environment," Research Working Paper RWP 10-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    17. Özer Karagedikli & Troy Matheson & Christie Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2007. "RBCs and DSGEs:The Computational Approach to Business Cycle Theory and Evidence," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/15, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    18. Canova, Fabio & Paustian, Matthias, 2011. "Business cycle measurement with some theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 8364, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Davidson, James & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2010. "Why crises happen - nonstationary macroeconomics," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2010/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    20. Varang Wiriyawit, 2014. "Trend Mis-specifications and Estimated Policy Implications in DSGE Models," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2014-615, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    21. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2011. "How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a new Keynesian DSGE model using indirect inference," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2078-2104.
    22. J. Farmer & Cameron Hepburn & Penny Mealy & Alexander Teytelboym, 2015. "A Third Wave in the Economics of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(2), pages 329-357, October.
    23. Giesen, Sebastian & Scheufele, Rolf, 2016. "Effects of incorrect specification on the finite sample properties of full and limited information estimators in DSGE models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-18.
    24. Varang Wiriyawit & Benjamin Wong, 2014. "Structural VARs, Deterministic and Stochastic Trends: Does Detrending Matter?," CAMA Working Papers 2014-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    25. Morrisy, Stephen D., 2017. "Efficient estimation of macroeconomic equations with unobservable states," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 408-423.
    26. Fabio Canova & Filippo Ferroni, 2011. "Multiple filtering devices for the estimation of cyclical DSGE models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(1), pages 73-98, March.
    27. Paolo Paruolo & Riccardo Girardi, 2010. "Wages and prices in Europe before and after the onset of the Monetary Union," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf1009, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
    28. Blasques, Francisco & Duplinskiy, Artem, 2018. "Penalized indirect inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 34-54.
    29. Oladunni, Sunday, 2020. "Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Dynamics in an Oil-Exporting Emerging Economy: A New Keynesian DSGE Approach," MPRA Paper 104551, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Jun 2020.
    30. Filippo Ferroni, 2010. "Commentary on MEDEA: A DSGE model for the Spanish economy," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 245-249, March.
    31. Caputo, Rodrigo & Pedersen, Michael, 2020. "The changing nature of the real exchange rate: The role of central bank preferences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 445-464.
    32. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Ng, Serena, 2010. "Estimation of DSGE models when the data are persistent," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 325-340, April.
    33. Krogh, Tord S., 2015. "Macro frictions and theoretical identification of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 191-204.
    34. Silvio Michael de Azevedo Costa, 2016. "Structural Trends and Cycles in a DSGE Model for Brazil," Working Papers Series 434, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

  33. Mr. Philippe D Karam & A. R. Pagan, 2008. "A Small Structural Monetary Policy Model for Small Open Economies with Debt Accumulation," IMF Working Papers 2008/064, International Monetary Fund.

    Cited by:

    1. Poghosyan, Karen & Boldea, Otilia, 2013. "Structural versus matching estimation: Transmission mechanisms in Armenia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 136-148.
    2. Mardi Dungey & M.Tugrul Vehbi, 2011. "A SVECM Model of the UK Economy and The Term Premium," CAMA Working Papers 2011-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Poghosyan, K., 2012. "Structural and reduced-form modeling and forecasting with application to Armenia," Other publications TiSEM ad1a24c3-15e6-4f04-b338-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stráský, Jan, 2008. "Oil exporters: in search of an external anchor," Working Paper Series 958, European Central Bank.
    5. Pedro Elosegui y Nicolás Grosman, 2016. "Structural Economic Model for Ecuador: a Dollar-ized and Oil-ized Economy," Económica, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 62, pages 23-53, January-D.

  34. A. R. Pagan & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Luis Catão, 2008. "Monetary Transmission in an Emerging Targeter: The Case of Brazil," IMF Working Papers 2008/191, International Monetary Fund.

    Cited by:

    1. Philip Arestis & Luiz Fernando de Paula & Fernando Ferrari-Filho, 2008. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_544, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Luis Catão & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "The Credit Channel and Monetary Transmission in Brazil and Chile: A Structured VAR Approach," NCER Working Paper Series 53, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    3. Annabelle Mourougane, 2011. "Refining Macroeconomic Policies to Sustain Growth in Brazil," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 899, OECD Publishing.
    4. Viladegut, Hugo & Cabello, Miguel, 2014. "El canal de crédito en el Perú: Una aproximación SVAR," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 27, pages 51-66.
    5. Minella, André & Souza-Sobrinho, Nelson F., 2013. "Monetary policy channels in Brazil through the lens of a semi-structural model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 405-419.
    6. Rajendra Narayan Paramanik & Bandi Kamaiah, 2014. "A Structural Vector Autoregression Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 8(4), pages 401-429, November.
    7. Oscar Parkyn & Tugrul Vehbi, 2013. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand: Evidence from a VAR Model with Debt Constraints," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/02, New Zealand Treasury.
    8. Mustafa Kilinc & Cengiz Tunc, 2014. "Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in Turkey: A Structural VAR Approach," Working Papers 1423, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    9. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Gabriel Gonçalves do Vale Monteiro, 2014. "Monetary policy, prudential regulation and investment," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 41(6), pages 881-906, November.
    10. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Caroline Cabral Machado, 2013. "Credibility and the credit channel transmission of monetary policy theoretical model and econometric analysis for Brazil," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(4), pages 469-492, August.
    11. Eduardo Fernandez-Arias & Andrew Powell & Alessandro Rebucci, 2009. "The Multilateral Response to the Global Crisis: Rationale, Modalities, and Feasibility," Research Department Publications 4629, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    12. Kapur, Muneesh & Behera, Harendra, 2012. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in India: A Quarterly Model," MPRA Paper 70631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Montes, Gabriel Caldas, 2013. "Credibility and monetary transmission channels under inflation targeting: An econometric analysis from a developing country," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 670-684.
    14. Marco A. F. H. Cavalcanti & Luciano Vereda, 2011. "Propriedades Dinâmicas de Um Modelo DSGE Com Parametrizações Alternativas Para o Brasil," Discussion Papers 1588, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    15. Luciano Vereda & Marco A. F. H. Cavalcanti, 2010. "Modelo Dinâmico Estocástico de Equilíbrio Geral (DSGE) Para a Economia Brasileira: Versão 1," Discussion Papers 1479, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    16. Kapur, Muneesh, 2018. "Macroeconomic Policies and Transmission Dynamics in India," MPRA Paper 88566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Gabriel Caldas Montes & José Américo Pereira Antunes & Alexei Ferreira Araújo, 2021. "Effects of monetary policy and credibility on financial intermediation: evidence from the Brazilian banking sector," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1191-1219, March.
    18. Mr. Alex Segura-Ubiergo, 2012. "The Puzzle of Brazil's High Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 2012/062, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Francisco J. S. Rocha & Marcos R. V. Magalhaes & Ã tila Amaral Brilhante, 2022. "A BVAR Analysis on Channels of Monetary Policy Transmission in Brazil," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(3), pages 1-19, February.
    20. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Peixoto, Gabriel Barros Tavares, 2014. "Risk-taking channel, bank lending channel and the “paradox of credibility”," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 82-94.

  35. Adrian Pagan & Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Econometric Analysis of Structural Systems with Permanent and Transitory Shocks. Working paper #7," NCER Working Paper Series 7, National Centre for Econometric Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Dees, Stephane & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, L. Vanessa & Smith, Ron P., 2008. "Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a Global Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 3298, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Dungey, Mardi & Vehbi, Tugrul & Martin, Charlton, 2014. "VAR modelling in the presence of China’s rise : an application to the Taiwanese economy," Working Papers 2014-09, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    3. Soyoung Kim & Jaewoo Lee, 2008. "International Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A New Open Economy Macroeconomics Interpretation," Working Papers 232008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

  36. Pagan, A. & Pesaran, M.H., 2007. "On Econometric Analysis of Structural Systems with Permanent and Transitory Shocks and Exogenous Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0662, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    Cited by:

    1. Dees, Stephane & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, L. Vanessa & Smith, Ron P., 2008. "Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a Global Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 3298, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. de Mello, Luiz & Moccero, Diego, 2011. "Monetary policy and macroeconomic stability in Latin America: The cases of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 229-245, February.
    3. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry, 2007. "The Identification Of Fiscal And Monetary Policy In A Structural Var," CAMA Working Papers 2007-29, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Dungey, Mardi & Vehbi, Tugrul & Martin, Charlton, 2014. "VAR modelling in the presence of China’s rise : an application to the Taiwanese economy," Working Papers 2014-09, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    5. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2010. "Cointegration, long-run structural modelling and weak exogeneity: Two models of the UK economy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 108-116, September.
    6. Soyoung Kim & Jaewoo Lee, 2008. "International Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A New Open Economy Macroeconomics Interpretation," Working Papers 232008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

  37. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2007. "Some Issues in Using Sign Restrictions for Identifying Structural VARs," NCER Working Paper Series 14, National Centre for Econometric Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Duchi, Fabio & Elbourne, Adam, 2016. "Credit supply shocks in the Netherlands," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 51-71.
    2. Gregor Bäurle & Daniel Kaufmann, 2014. "Exchange rate and price dynamics in a small open economy - the role of the zero lower bound and monetary policy regimes," Working Papers 2014-10, Swiss National Bank.
    3. Makram El-Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Qual VAR revisited: Good forecast, bad story," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 19, pages 293-322, November.
    4. Makram El-Shagi & Claus Michelsen & Sebastian Rosenschon, 2014. "Regulation, Innovation and Technology Diffusion: Evidence from Building Energy Efficiency Standards in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1371, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Angela Abbate & Sandra Eickmeier & Esteban Prieto, 2020. "Financial shocks and inflation dynamics," Working Papers 2020-13, Swiss National Bank.
    6. Alessandro Gobbi & Tim Willems, 2011. "Identifying US Monetary Policy Shocks through Sign Restrictions in Dollarized Countries," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-145/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. A. Anzuini & M. J. Lombardi & P. Pagano, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Commodity Prices," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 125-150, September.
    8. Bettendorf, Timo, 2013. "Feeding the Global VAR with theory: Is German wage moderation to blame for European imbalances?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79710, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Zsolt Darvas, 2012. "Monetary transmission in three central European economies- evidence from time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions," Bruegel Working Papers 722, Bruegel.
    10. Kaufmann, Daniel & Bäurle, Gregor, 2013. "Exchange Rate and Price Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79872, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Hebous, Shafik, 2009. "The Effects of Discretionary Fiscal Policy on Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Reappraisal," MPRA Paper 23300, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2010.
    12. Shigeru Fujita, 2011. "Dynamics of worker flows and vacancies: evidence from the sign restriction approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 89-121, January/F.
    13. Sandra Eickmeier & Boris Hofmann, 2022. "What drives inflation? Disentangling Demand and Supply Factors," CAMA Working Papers 2022-74, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Stéphane Dées & Jochen Güntner, 2014. "The International Dimension of Confidence Shocks," Economics working papers 2014-05, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    15. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Valérie Mignon & Audrey Allegret, 2014. "Oil price shocks and global imbalances: Lessons from a model with trade and financial interdependencies," Working Papers hal-04141352, HAL.
    16. Eickmeier, Sandra & Hofmann, Boris, 2010. "Monetary policy, housing booms and financial (im)balances," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Stéphane Dees, 2017. "The role of confidence shocks in business cycles and their global dimension," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 151, pages 48-65.
    18. Herwartz, Helmut & Plödt, Martin, 2014. "Sign restrictions and statistical identification under volatility breaks -- Simulation based evidence and an empirical application to monetary policy analysis," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100326, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Structural vector autoregressions: theory of identification and algorithms for inference," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    20. Anaya, Pablo & Hachula, Michael & Offermanns, Christian, 2015. "Spillovers of U.S. unconventional monetary policy to emerging markets: The role of capital flows," Discussion Papers 2015/35, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    21. K. Peren Arin & Peter H. Helles & Murat Koyuncu & Otto F. M. Reich, 2016. "Should We Care About The Composition Of Tax-Based Stimulus Packages?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(3), pages 430-445, July.
    22. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2011. "How Do Credit Supply Shocks Propagate Internationally? A GVAR approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 8720, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Menzies, Gordon D. & Zizzo, Daniel John, 2012. "Monetary policy and inferential expectations of exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 359-380.
    24. Stephen Nicar, 2015. "International Spillovers from U.S. Fiscal Policy Shocks," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 1081-1097, November.
    25. Mansur, Alfan, 2015. "Identifying Shocks on the Economic Fluctuations in Indonesia and US: The Role of Oil Price Shocks in a Structural Vector Autoregression Model," MPRA Paper 94018, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Jun 2015.
    26. G. Peersman & W. Wagner, 2014. "Shocks to Bank Lending, Risk-Taking, Securitization, and their Role for U.S. Business Cycle Fluctuations," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 14/874, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    27. Colin Ellis & Haroon Mumtaz & Pawel Zabczyk, 2014. "What Lies Beneath? A Time‐varying FAVAR Model for the UK Transmission Mechanism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 668-699, May.
    28. Scholl, Almuth & Uhlig, Harald, 2008. "New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification on monetary policy and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13, September.
    29. Kilian, Lutz & Murphy, Daniel, 2009. "Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding the Dynamics of Oil Market VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7471, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    30. Gupta, Rangan & Jurgilas, Marius & Kabundi, Alain, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 315-323, January.
    31. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
    32. Vonnák Balázs, 2010. "Risk Premium Shocks, Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 28(61), pages 306-351, August.
    33. Herwartz, Helmut & Lange, Alexander & Maxand, Simone, 2019. "Statistical identification in SVARs - Monte Carlo experiments and a comparative assessment of the role of economic uncertainties for the US business cycle," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 375, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    34. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    35. L. Gambacorta & B. Hofmann & G. Peersman, 2011. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Cross-Country Analysis," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/765, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    36. Timo Bettendorf, 2017. "Idiosyncratic and international transmission of shocks in the G7: Does EMU matter?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 856-890, September.
    37. Scholl, Almuth & Müller, Gernot & Enders, Zeno, 2010. "How do Fiscal and Technology Shocks affect Real Exchange Rates? New Evidence for the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 7732, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    38. Michelsen, Claus & El-Shagi, Makram & Rosenschon, Sebastian, 2016. "The diffusion of "green'' buildings in the housing market: empirics on the long run effects of energy efficiency regulation," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145534, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    39. Fratzscher, Marcel & Juvenal, Luciana & Sarno, Lucio, 2007. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," Working Paper Series 790, European Central Bank.
    40. Heike Schenkelberg & Sebastian Watzka, 2011. "Real Effects of Quantitative Easing at the Zero-Lower Bound: Structural VAR-based Evidence from Japan," CESifo Working Paper Series 3486, CESifo.
    41. Mountford, A.W. & Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 2002. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," Other publications TiSEM af6a2f09-0045-471e-bba4-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    42. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2009. "Analyse der Übertragung US-amerikanischer Schocks auf Deutschland auf Basis eines FAVAR," Working Papers 04/2009, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    43. Francesco Lippi & Andrea Nobili, 2009. "Oil and the macroeconomy: a quantitative structural analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 704, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    44. Deryugina, Elena B. & Ponomarenko, Alexey A., 2011. "Identifying structural shocks behind loan supply fluctuations in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2011, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    45. Haroon Mumtaz & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2016. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Inequality in the UK. An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 783, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    46. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman & Ine Van Robays, 2010. "The Economic Consequences of Oil Shocks: Differences across Countries and Time," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    47. Hilde C. Bjørnland & J rn I. Halvorsen, 2010. "How does monetary policy respond to exchange rate movements? New international evidence," Working Papers No 1/2010, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    48. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2009. "Monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was right after all," Working Paper 2009/09, Norges Bank.
    49. Claudia M. Buch & Sandra Eickmeier & Esteban Prieto, 2014. "Macroeconomic Factors and Microlevel Bank Behavior," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 715-751, June.
    50. Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Wu, Wenfeng, 2016. "Disentangling the determinants of real oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 363-373.
    51. Ronayne, David, 2011. "Which Impulse Response Function?," Economic Research Papers 270753, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    52. Nocera, Andrea & Roma, Moreno, 2017. "House prices and monetary policy in the euro area: evidence from structural VARs," Working Paper Series 2073, European Central Bank.
    53. Amisano, Gianni & Giammarioli, Nicola & Stracca, Livio, 2009. "EMU and the adjustment to asymmetric shocks: the case of Italy," Working Paper Series 1128, European Central Bank.
    54. Fidora, Michael & Chudik, Alexander, 2011. "Using the global dimension to identify shocks with sign restrictions," Working Paper Series 1318, European Central Bank.
    55. Canova, Fabio & Paustian, Matthias, 2011. "Business cycle measurement with some theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 8364, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    56. Alexie Alupoaiei & Ana-Maria Sandica, 2013. "Assessing Structural Convergence between Romanian Economy and Euro Area: A Bayesian Approach," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 3(3), pages 372-383, July.
    57. Eickmeier Sandra, 2010. "Analyse der Übertragung US-amerikanischer Schocks auf Deutschland auf Basis eines FAVAR / A FAVAR-based Analysis of the Transmission of US Shocks to Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(5), pages 571-600, October.
    58. Chadi S. Abdallah & William D. Lastrapes, 2013. "Evidence on the Relationship between Housing and Consumption in the United States: A State‐Level Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 559-590, June.
    59. Signe Rosenberg, 2018. "The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy on House Prices in the Scandinavian Countries," TUT Economic Research Series 44, Department of Finance and Economics, Tallinn University of Technology.
    60. L. Salzmann, 2018. "China’s Economic Slowdown and International Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 2018.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    61. Zeno Enders & Almut Balleer, 2012. "Expansionary and Contractionary Technology Shocks," 2012 Meeting Papers 812, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    62. Guglielminetti, Elisa & Pouraghdam, Meradj, 2018. "Time-varying job creation and macroeconomic shocks," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 156-179.
    63. de Mello, Luiz & Moccero, Diego, 2011. "Monetary policy and macroeconomic stability in Latin America: The cases of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 229-245, February.
    64. Eickmeier, Sandra & Kühnlenz, Markus, 2018. "China'S Role In Global Inflation Dynamics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 225-254, March.
    65. Michael Pedersen & Miguel Ricaurte, 2013. "Efectos de Shocks al Precio del Petróleo sobre la Economía de Chile y sus Socios Comerciales," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 691, Central Bank of Chile.
    66. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry, 2007. "The Identification Of Fiscal And Monetary Policy In A Structural Var," CAMA Working Papers 2007-29, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    67. Eickmeier, Sandra & Lombardi, Marco J., 2012. "Monetary policy and the oil futures market," Discussion Papers 35/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    68. Timo Bettendorf & Miguel A. León‐Ledesma, 2019. "German Wage Moderation and European Imbalances: Feeding the Global VAR with Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 617-653, March.
    69. Sandra Eickmeier & Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann, 2013. "Understanding Global Liquidity," BIS Working Papers 402, Bank for International Settlements.
    70. Mr. Fei Han & Mr. Selim A Elekdag, 2012. "What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?," IMF Working Papers 2012/043, International Monetary Fund.
    71. Andrea Cipollini & Fabio Parla, 2018. "Housing Market Shocks in Italy: a GVAR approach," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0069, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    72. Mardi Dungey, 2010. "Discussion of The Economic Consequences of Oil Shocks: Differences across Countries and Time," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    73. Saeidinezhad, Elham, 2014. "The International Spillover of Fiscal and Technology Shocks before the Crisis: The case of the UK and Italy," MPRA Paper 98556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    74. Melolinna, Marko, 2012. "Macroeconomic shocks in an oil market var," Working Paper Series 1432, European Central Bank.
    75. Gert Peersman, 2011. "Macroeconomic consequences of different types of credit market disturbances and non-conventional monetary policy in the euro area," 2011 Meeting Papers 333, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    76. Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2011. "An efficient minimum distance estimator for DSGE models," Bank of England working papers 439, Bank of England.
    77. el-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Kelly, Logan J., 2011. "The Quantity Theory Revisited: A New Structural Approach," IWH Discussion Papers 7/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    78. Berg, Tim Oliver, 2010. "Exploring the international transmission of U.S. stock price movements," MPRA Paper 23977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    79. Balleer, Almut & Enders, Zeno, 2013. "Expansionary and Contractionary Technology Improvements," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80046, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    80. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes & Wang, Shu, 2020. "Proxy SVAR identification of monetary policy shocks: MonteCarlo evidence and insights for the US," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 404, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    81. Lippi, Francesco & Nobili, Andrea, 2008. "Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Structural VAR Analysis with Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 6830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    82. Nikolaychuk Sergiy & Shapovalenko Nadiia, 2013. "The identification of the sources of current account fluctuations in Ukraine," EERC Working Paper Series 13/12e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    83. Bettendorf, Timo, 2016. "Spillover effects of credit default risk in the euro area and the effects on the euro: A GVAR approach," Discussion Papers 42/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    84. Chen, Yong & Liu, Dingming, 2018. "Government spending shocks and the real exchange rate in China: Evidence from a sign-restricted VAR model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 543-554.
    85. Thomas Theobald & Peter Hohlfeld, 2017. "Why have the recent oil price declines not stimulated global economic growth?," IMK Working Paper 185-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    86. Daniel Grabowski, 2016. "Causes of the 2000s Food Price Surge: New Evidence from Structural VAR," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201631, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    87. Juvenal, Luciana, 2011. "Sources of exchange rate fluctuations: Are they real or nominal?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 849-876, September.
    88. Adam Elbourne & Fabio Duchi, 2016. "Credit Supply Shocks in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 320, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    89. Sandra Eickmeier, 2009. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the euro area analyzed in a non-stationary dynamic factor model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 933-959.
    90. Eddie Gerba & Klemens Hauzenberger, 2013. "Estimating US Fiscal and Monetary Interactions in a Time Varying VAR," Studies in Economics 1303, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    91. Direye, Eli, 2017. "An empirical study on the dynamic effects of fiscal shock on the economy of Papua New Guinea," MPRA Paper 113917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    92. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2011. "Comment on "The Effects of Oil Price Changes on the Industry-Level Production and Prices in the U.S. and Japan"," NBER Chapters, in: Commodity Prices and Markets, pages 233-235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    93. Michael Pedersen & Miguel Ricaurte B., 2014. "Effects of Oil-Price Shocks on The Economies Of Chile and Its Trading Partners," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 17(1), pages 38-65, April.
    94. Bálint Tamási & Balázs Világi, 2011. "Identification of credit supply shocks in a Bayesian SVAR model of the Hungarian economy," MNB Working Papers 2011/7, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    95. Marcelo Sánchez, 2010. "What Drives Business Cycles and International Trade in Emerging Market Economies?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 28(61), pages 198-271, August.
    96. Michal Franta, 2011. "Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in Japan Using Sign Restrictions within the TVP-VAR Framework," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-13, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    97. Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон) & Turuntseva, Marina (Турунцева, Марина), 2015. "Theoretical Aspects of Modeling of the SVAR [Теоретические Аспекты Моделирования Svar]," Published Papers mak8, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    98. Mthuli Ncube & Eliphas Ndou, 2013. "Working Paper 169 - Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks on South African Trade Balance," Working Paper Series 448, African Development Bank.
    99. Berg, Tim Oliver, 2010. "Do monetary and technology shocks move euro area stock prices?," MPRA Paper 23973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    100. Fratzscher, Marcel & Straub, Roland & Saborowski, Christian, 2010. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Portfolio Choice," CEPR Discussion Papers 8099, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    101. Dóra Siklós, 2016. "Capital Adequacy Regulations in Hungary: Did It Really Matter?," Working Papers 11, European Stability Mechanism.
    102. Alexander Chudik & Michael Fidora, 2012. "How the global perspective can help us identify structural shocks," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Dec.
    103. Herwartz, Helmut, 2014. "Structural analysis with independent innovations," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 208, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    104. Salzmann, Leonard, 2020. "China's Economic Slowdown and International Inflation Dynamics," EconStor Preprints 176757, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2020.
    105. Gert Peersman, 2012. "Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," 2012 Meeting Papers 400, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    106. Gregor Bäurle & Daniel Kaufmann, 2018. "Measuring Exchange Rate, Price, and Output Dynamics at the Effective Lower Bound," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(6), pages 1243-1266, December.

  38. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Measurement of Business Cycles," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 966, The University of Melbourne.

    Cited by:

    1. Svatopluk KAPOUNEK & Jitka POMĚNKOVÁ, 2013. "The endogeneity of optimum currency area criteria in the context of financial crisis: Evidence from the time-frequency domain analysis," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 59(9), pages 389-395.
    2. Cesaroni, Tatiana & Maccini, Louis & Malgarini, Marco, 2011. "Business cycle stylized facts and inventory behaviour: New evidence for the Euro area," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 12-24, September.
    3. Harding, Don, 2008. "Detecting and forecasting business cycle turning points," MPRA Paper 33583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Thierry Aimar & Francis Bismans & Claude Diebolt, 2010. "Le cycle économique : une synthèse," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 24(4), pages 3-65.
    5. Marinko Škare & Saša Stjepanović, 2016. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Review," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 10(1), March.
    6. Svatopluk Kapounek & Jitka Pomenkova, 2012. "Spurious synchronization of business cycles: Dynamic correlation analysis of V4 countries," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2012-22, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    7. Edward E. Leamer, 2008. "What's a Recession, Anyway?," NBER Working Papers 14221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "What happens during recessions, crunches and busts? [Business cycles for G-7 and European countries]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(60), pages 653-700.
    9. Dumitru, Ionut & Dumitru, Ionela, 2010. "Business Cycle Correlation of the New Meber States with Eurozone - The Case of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 16-31, December.
    10. Mariarosaria Comunale & Dmitrij Celov, 2021. "Business cycles in the EU: A comprehensive comparison across methods," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 26, Bank of Lithuania.
    11. Svatopluk Kapounek & Jan Sečkař, 2012. "Economic cycle synchronization in the context of financial crisis: empirical evidence of Denmark, Sweden and United Kingdom," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 60(7), pages 155-162.
    12. Heilemann Ullrich & Schuhr Roland, 2008. "Zur Evolution des deutschen Konjunkturzyklus 1958-2004 / On the Evolution of German Business Cycles 1958-2004: Ergebnisse einer dynamischen Diskriminanzanalyse / Results of a Dynamic Linear Discrimina," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(1), pages 84-109, February.

  39. Adrian pagan & Don Harding, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series. Working paper #1," NCER Working Paper Series 1, National Centre for Econometric Research.

    Cited by:

    1. T M Christensen & A S Hurn & K A Lindsay, 2008. "It never rains but it pours: Modelling the persistence of spikes in electricity prices," NCER Working Paper Series 25, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    2. Powell, John G. & Shi, Jing & Smith, Tom & Whaley, Robert E., 2009. "Political regimes, business cycles, seasonalities, and returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1112-1128, June.
    3. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2009. "Inflation, monetary policy and stock market conditions: quantitative evidence from a hybrid latent-variable VAR," Working Papers 2008-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2008. "Inflation, Monetary Policy and Stock Market Conditions," NBER Working Papers 14019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  40. Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Issues in Adopting DSGE Models for Use in the Policy Process," Working Papers 2006/6, Czech National Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrés González Gómez & Lavan Mahadeva & Diego Rodríguez & Luis Eduardo Rojas, 2009. "Monetary Policy Forecasting In A Dsge Model With Data That Is Uncertain, Unbalanced And About The Future," Borradores de Economia 5480, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Marcin Kolasa & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2009. "The new macroeconometric model of the Polish economy," NBP Working Papers 62, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    3. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2011. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2150-2166.
    4. Huseynov, Salman & Mammadov, Fuad, 2016. "A small scale forecasting and simulation model for Azerbaijan (FORSAZ)," MPRA Paper 76348, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Lees, Kirdan & Matheson, Troy & Smith, Christie, 2011. "Open economy forecasting with a DSGE-VAR: Head to head with the RBNZ published forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 512-528.
    6. Chevillon, Guillaume & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & Zhan, Zhaoguo, 2016. "Robust inference in structural VARs with long-run restrictions," ESSEC Working Papers WP1702, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    7. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2016. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," LEM Papers Series 2016/17, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    8. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models," Working Papers hal-04141079, HAL.
    9. Sofia Bauducco & Ales Bulir & Martin Cihak, 2008. "Monetary Policy Rules with Financial Instability," Working Papers 2008/8, Czech National Bank.
    10. G. Fagiolo & A. Roventini, 2009. "On the Scientific Status of Economic Policy: A Tale of Alternative Paradigms," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 6.
    11. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "More is Different ... and Complex! The Case for Agent-Based Macroeconomics," LEM Papers Series 2019/01, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    12. Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2008. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-30, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2010. "Schumpeter meeting Keynes: A policy-friendly model of endogenous growth and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1748-1767, September.
    14. Philip Liu, 2010. "The Effects of International Shocks on Australia's Business Cycle," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(275), pages 486-503, December.
    15. Kirdan Lees & Troy Matheson & Christie Smith, 2007. "Open economy DSGE-VAR forecasting and policy analysis - head to head with the RBNZ published forecasts," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    16. Harvey, A., 2008. "Modeling the Phillips curve with unobserved components," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0805, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Carlo A. Favero, 2007. "The Econometrics of Monetary Policy: an Overview," Working Papers 329, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    18. Guerini, Mattia & Moneta, Alessio, 2017. "A method for agent-based models validation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 125-141.
    19. Fabio Bacchini & Cristina Brandimarte & Piero Crivelli & Roberta De Santis & Marco Fioramanti & Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio & Massimo Mancini & Carmine Pappalardo & D, 2013. "Building the core of the Istat system of models for forecasting the Italian economy: MeMo-It," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(1), pages 17-45.
    20. Marco A. F. H. Cavalcanti & Luciano Vereda, 2011. "Propriedades Dinâmicas de Um Modelo DSGE Com Parametrizações Alternativas Para o Brasil," Discussion Papers 1588, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    21. Jan Kodera & Tran Van Quang, 2013. "Modely nové Keynesovské ekonomie: struktura, problémy a perspektivy [The New Keynesian Economics Models: Structure, Disadvantages and Perspectives]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(2), pages 274-295.
    22. Gnidchenko, Andrey, 2011. "Моделирование Технологических И Институциональных Эффектов В Макроэкономическом Прогнозировании [Technological and Institutional Effects Modeling in Macroeconomic Forecasting]," MPRA Paper 35484, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2011.
    23. Luciano Vereda & Marco A. F. H. Cavalcanti, 2010. "Modelo Dinâmico Estocástico de Equilíbrio Geral (DSGE) Para a Economia Brasileira: Versão 1," Discussion Papers 1479, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    24. Hall, Jamie & Pitt, Michael K. & Kohn, Robert, 2014. "Bayesian inference for nonlinear structural time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 179(2), pages 99-111.
    25. Philip Liu, 2007. "Stabilizing The Australian Business Cycle: Good Luck Or Good Policy?," CAMA Working Papers 2007-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    26. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: In Search of Improvements and Adaptation to the Open Economy," Economics wp31_tjorvi, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    27. Mr. Martin Cihak & Mr. Aleš Bulíř & Sofía Bauducco, 2008. "Taylor Rule Under Financial Instability," IMF Working Papers 2008/018, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Philip Liu, 2008. "The Role of International Shocks in Australia’s Business Cycle," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2008-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    29. Andrew G. Haldane & Arthur E. Turrell, 2019. "Drawing on different disciplines: macroeconomic agent-based models," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 39-66, March.

  41. Louis J. Maccini & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Inventories, Fluctuations and Business Cycles. Working paper #4," NCER Working Paper Series 4, National Centre for Econometric Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Tatiana Cesaroni, 2011. "The cyclical behavior of the Italian business survey data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 747-768, December.
    2. Thomas A. Lubik & Wing Leong Teo, 2009. "Inventories and Optimal Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 09/06, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).

  42. Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Limited Information Estimation and Evaluation of DSGE Models. Working paper #6," NCER Working Paper Series 6, National Centre for Econometric Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Milani, 2009. "Expectations, Learning, and the Changing Relationship between Oil Prices and the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 080923, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    2. Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Limited information estimation and evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 55-70.
    3. Mardi Dungey & Adrian Pagan, 2008. "Extending an SVAR Model of the Australian Economy," NCER Working Paper Series 21, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    4. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer & Jérôme Henry & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "Factor Analysis in a Model with Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 13404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Luca Fanelli, 2009. "Estimation of quasi-rational DSGE monetary models," Quaderni di Dipartimento 3, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna.
    6. A. R. Pagan & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Luis Catão, 2008. "Monetary Transmission in an Emerging Targeter: The Case of Brazil," IMF Working Papers 2008/191, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Ng, Serena, 2010. "Estimation of DSGE models when the data are persistent," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 325-340, April.

  43. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 963, The University of Melbourne.

    Cited by:

    1. Bertrand Candelon & Elena Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin, 2012. "How to Evaluate an Early Warning System? Towards a Unified Statistical Framework for Assessing Financial Crises Forecasting Methods," Post-Print hal-01385900, HAL.
    2. Harding, Don, 2008. "Detecting and forecasting business cycle turning points," MPRA Paper 33583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. T M Christensen & A S Hurn & K A Lindsay, 2008. "It never rains but it pours: Modelling the persistence of spikes in electricity prices," NCER Working Paper Series 25, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    4. Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Octavio Fernández-Amador, 2010. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment," Working Papers 2010-22, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    5. Powell, John G. & Shi, Jing & Smith, Tom & Whaley, Robert E., 2009. "Political regimes, business cycles, seasonalities, and returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1112-1128, June.
    6. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2009. "Inflation, monetary policy and stock market conditions: quantitative evidence from a hybrid latent-variable VAR," Working Papers 2008-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2008. "Dating and forecasting turning points by Bayesian clustering with dynamic structure: A suggestion with an application to Austrian data," Working Papers 144, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    8. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2008. "Inflation, Monetary Policy and Stock Market Conditions," NBER Working Papers 14019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  44. Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Some Econometric Analysis Of Constructed Binary Time Series," CAMA Working Papers 2005-07, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Layton, Allan P. & Smith, Daniel R., 2007. "Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 855-875, December.
    2. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2006. "The New Zealand Business Cycle: Return To Golden Days?," CAMA Working Papers 2006-21, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Hall, Viv B. & McDermott, C. John, 2015. "Recessions and Recoveries in New Zealand’s Post-Second World War Business Cycles," Working Paper Series 19334, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    4. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Testing Dependence among Serially Correlated Multi-Category Variables," IZA Discussion Papers 2196, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Nicholas Di Venuto & Allan Layton, 2005. "Do The Phases Of The Business Cycle Die Of Old Age?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 290-305, September.

  45. G. Kapetanios & A. Pagan & A. Scott, 2005. "Making a match: Combining theory and evidence in policy-oriented macroeconomic modelling," CAMA Working Papers 2005-01, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Raghavan, Mala, 2019. "An analysis of the global oil market using SVARMA models," Working Papers 2019-01, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    2. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Shi, Song & Ho Tang, Edward Chi, 2013. "Commodity house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 875-887.
    3. D.S. Poskitt & Wenying Yao, 2012. "VAR Modeling and Business Cycle Analysis: A Taxonomy of Errors," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/12, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    4. Syed Abul Basher & Alfred Haug & Perry Sadorsky, 2010. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Emerging Stock Markets," Working Papers 1014, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2010.
    5. Yao, Wenying & Kam, Timothy & Vahid, Farshid, 2014. "VAR(MA), what is it good for? more bad news for reduced-form estimation and inference," Working Papers 2014-14, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    6. Mala Raghavan & George Athanasopoulos & Param Silvapulle, 2016. "Canadian monetary policy analysis using a structural VARMA model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 347-373, February.
    7. Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Limited information estimation and evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 55-70.
    8. Massimo Franchi & Anna Vidotto, 2012. "A simple check for VAR representations of DSGE models," DSS Empirical Economics and Econometrics Working Papers Series 2012/5, Centre for Empirical Economics and Econometrics, Department of Statistics, "Sapienza" University of Rome.
    9. Raghavan, Mala & Athanasopoulos, George, 2019. "Analysis of shock transmissions to a small open emerging economy using a SVARMA model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 187-203.
    10. Adrian Pagan & Tim Robinson, 2019. "Implications of Partial Information for Applied Macroeconomic Modelling," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2019n12, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    11. Martin Fukac & Adrian R. Pagan, 2010. "Structural macro-econometric modelling in a policy environment," Research Working Paper RWP 10-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    12. Philippe Jeanfils & Koen Burggraeve, 2005. "Noname - A new quarterly model for Belgium," Working Paper Research 68, National Bank of Belgium.
    13. Poskitt, D.S., 2016. "Vector autoregressive moving average identification for macroeconomic modeling: A new methodology," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 468-484.
    14. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Catalin Dragomirescu-Gaina, 2022. "Uncertainty spill-overs: when policy and financial realms overlap," Working Papers wp1174, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    15. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2008. "Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics," NBER Working Papers 14028, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Liu, Philip & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2010. "DSGE model restrictions for structural VAR identification," Bank of England working papers 402, Bank of England.
    17. Cheuk Yin Ho, 2007. "Illegal migration and economic growth: simulation analysis in an international context," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(41), pages 1-13.
    18. K. Azim Ozdemir, 2015. "Interest Rate Surprises and Transmission Mechanism in Turkey: Evidence from Impulse Response Analysis," Working Papers 1504, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    19. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2010. "Short and long run causality measures: Theory and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(1), pages 42-58, January.
    20. Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Issues in Adopting DSGE Models for Use in the Policy Process," Working Papers 2006/6, Czech National Bank.
    21. Jarkko Jääskelä & David Jennings, 2010. "Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate: Evaluation of VAR Models," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2010-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    22. Franchi, Massimo & Vidotto, Anna, 2013. "A check for finite order VAR representations of DSGE models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 100-103.
    23. Jääskelä, Jarkko P. & Jennings, David, 2011. "Monetary policy and the exchange rate: Evaluation of VAR models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1358-1374.
    24. Wang, Lipeng & Zhang, Mengyu & Verousis, Thanos, 2021. "The road to economic recovery: Pandemics and innovation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

  46. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Some Issues In Using Vars For Macroeconometric Research," CAMA Working Papers 2005-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Mathilde Lebrand & Garima Vasishtha & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2023. "Energy Price Shocks and Current Account Balances: Evidence from Emerging Market and Developing Economies," Working Papers 2305, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    2. Raghavan, Mala, 2019. "An analysis of the global oil market using SVARMA models," Working Papers 2019-01, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    3. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung, 2019. "An IV framework for combining sign and long-run parametric restrictions in SVARs," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Magdalena Morgese Borys & Roman Horvath, 2007. "The Effects of Monetary Policy in the Czech Republic: An Empirical Study," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp339, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    5. Kilian, Lutz & Murphy, Daniel, 2009. "Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding the Dynamics of Oil Market VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7471, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Mala Raghavan & George Athanasopoulos & Param Silvapulle, 2016. "Canadian monetary policy analysis using a structural VARMA model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 347-373, February.
    7. Hanson, Samuel G. & Malkhozov, Aytek & Venter, Gyuri, 2024. "Demand-and-supply imbalance risk and long-term swap spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    8. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
    9. Noss, Joseph & Toffano, Priscilla, 2014. "Estimating the impact of changes in aggregate bank capital requirements during an upswing," Bank of England working papers 494, Bank of England.
    10. Laura Bisio & Andrea Faccini, 2010. "Does Cointegration Matter? An Analysis in a RBC Perspective," Working Papers in Public Economics 133, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    11. Budnik, Katarzyna & Bochmann, Paul, 2017. "Capital and liquidity buffers and the resilience of the banking system in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2120, European Central Bank.
    12. Mardi Dungey & Adrian Pagan, 2008. "Extending an SVAR Model of the Australian Economy," NCER Working Paper Series 21, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    13. Michal Franta & Jozef Baruník & Roman Horváth & Katerina Smídková, 2014. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful? The Effect of Zero Lower Bound and Evaluation of Financial Stability Stress Tests," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 159-188, March.
    14. Raghavan, Mala & Athanasopoulos, George, 2019. "Analysis of shock transmissions to a small open emerging economy using a SVARMA model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 187-203.
    15. Iulian Popescu, 2012. "Effects Of Monetary Policy In Romania - A Var Approach," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 4(3a), pages 605-624, September.
    16. Villarreal, Francisco G. & Kronick, Jeremy M., 2019. "Distributional impacts of low for long interest rates," Estudios y Perspectivas – Sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México 44666, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    17. Poskitt, D.S., 2016. "Vector autoregressive moving average identification for macroeconomic modeling: A new methodology," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 468-484.
    18. Pagan, A.R. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2008. "Econometric analysis of structural systems with permanent and transitory shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3376-3395, October.
    19. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry, 2007. "The Identification Of Fiscal And Monetary Policy In A Structural Var," CAMA Working Papers 2007-29, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    20. Popescu, Iulia Vasile, 2012. "Effects of monetary policy in Romania. A VAR approach," MPRA Paper 41686, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Jörg Breitung & Ralf Brüggemann, 2019. "Projection estimators for structural impulse responses," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2019-05, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    22. Pedro Gete, 2015. "Housing demands, savings gluts and current account dynamics," Globalization Institute Working Papers 221, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    23. Meradj Morteza Pouraghdam, 2016. "Three essays on the role of frictions in the economy [Trois essais sur le rôle du désaccord en économie]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-03498781, HAL.
    24. Varang Wiriyawit & Benjamin Wong, 2014. "Structural VARs, Deterministic and Stochastic Trends: Does Detrending Matter?," CAMA Working Papers 2014-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    25. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2013. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A second look at the second moment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 239-259.
    26. Francesco Giuli & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2010. "Contractionary Effects of Supply Shocks: Evidence and Theoretical Interpretation," Working Papers in Public Economics 131, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    27. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2008. "Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics," NBER Working Papers 14028, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Natasa Erjavec & Boris Cota & Sasa Jaksic, 2012. "Sign restriction approach to macro stress-testing of the Croatian banking system," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 36(4), pages 395-412.
    29. Hanson, Samuel & Malkhozov, Aytek & Venter, Gyuri, 2022. "Demand-supply imbalance risk and long-term swap spreads," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118868, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    30. Philip Liu, 2007. "Stabilizing The Australian Business Cycle: Good Luck Or Good Policy?," CAMA Working Papers 2007-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    31. Rathke, Alexander & Streicher, Sina & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2022. "How similar are country- and sector-responses to common shocks within the euro area?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    32. Francesco Giuli & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2012. "Prince-setting, monetary policy and the contractionary effects of productivity improvements," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0161, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    33. Mala Raghavan & George Athanasopoulos & Param Silvapulle, 2009. "VARMA models for Malaysian Monetary Policy Analysis," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 6/09, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    34. Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2013. "Does the Source of Oil Price Shocks Matter for South African Stock Returns? A Structural VAR Approach," Working Papers 201318, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    35. Noss, Joseph & Toffano, Priscilla, 2016. "Estimating the impact of changes in aggregate bank capital requirements on lending and growth during an upswing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 15-27.
    36. Villarreal, Francisco G., 2014. "Monetary Policy and Inequality in Mexico," MPRA Paper 57074, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон) & Turuntseva, Marina (Турунцева, Марина), 2015. "Theoretical Aspects of Modeling of the SVAR [Теоретические Аспекты Моделирования Svar]," Published Papers mak8, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    38. Cieslak, Anna & Pang, Hao, 2021. "Common shocks in stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 880-904.
    39. Gilhooly, Robert & Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2015. "Estimation of short dynamic panels in the presence of cross-sectional dependence and dynamic eterogeneity," Discussion Papers 38, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.

  47. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2004. "Synchronization of cycles," CAMA Working Papers 2004-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Balázs Égert & Oliver Röhn, 2010. "Counter-cyclical Economic Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 760, OECD Publishing.
    2. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Measurement of Business Cycles," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 966, The University of Melbourne.
    3. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy M. & Wall, Howard J. & Wheeler, Christopher H., 2008. "The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 538-550, November.
    4. Mr. Aasim M. Husain & Chakriya Bowman, 2004. "Forecasting Commodity Prices: Futures Versus Judgment," IMF Working Papers 2004/041, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Juliana Ávila Vélez & Álvaro José Pinzón Giraldo, 2015. "¿Están sincronizados los ciclos económicos en Latinoamérica?," Borradores de Economia 864, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Jalali Naini, Ahmad Reza & Naderian, Mohammad Amin, 2017. "Oil Price Cycles, Fiscal Dominance and Counter-cyclical Monetary Policy in Iran," MPRA Paper 84480, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
    8. Ihle, Rico & Bar-Nahum, Ziv & Nivievskyi, Oleg & Rubin, Ofir D., 2022. "Russia’s invasion of Ukraine increased the synchronisation of global commodity prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(04), January.
    9. Prabheesh, K.P. & Anglingkusumo, Reza & Juhro, Solikin M., 2021. "The dynamics of global financial cycle and domestic economic cycles: Evidence from India and Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 831-842.
    10. Albuquerque, Rui & Eichenbaum, Martin & Papanikolaou, Dimitris & Rebelo, Sergio, 2015. "Long-run bulls and bears," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 21-36.
    11. Ana Rodríguez-Santiago, 2019. "What has Changed After the Great Recession on the European Cyclical Patterns?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(2), pages 121-146, December.
    12. Spinola, Danilo, 2023. "Instability constraints and development traps: an empirical analysis of growth cycles and economic volatility in Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    13. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Dating Business Cycles: A Methodological Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(4), pages 537-565, September.
    14. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Ugo Fratesi, 2006. "Regional business cycles and the emergence of sheltered economies in the southern periphery of Europe," Bruges European Economic Research Papers 7, European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe.
    15. Mark Mink & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Measuring Synchronicity And Co-Movement Of Business Cycles With An Application To The Euro Area," CAMA Working Papers 2007-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Enrique López Enciso, 2019. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Tiempo y Economía, Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, vol. 6(1), pages 77-142, February.
    17. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "A New Approach to Infer Changes in the Synchronization of Business Cycle Phases," Staff Working Papers 14-38, Bank of Canada.
    18. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    19. Agnieszka Domańska & Dobrmił Serwa, 2014. "Synchronizacja cykli koniunkturalnych a podatność gospodarek krajów Europy na skutki kryzysu gospodarczego 2008-2009," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 37.
    20. Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
    21. Andreas Billmeier, 2009. "Ghostbusting: which output gap really matters?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 391-419, December.
    22. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Kristófer Gunnlaugsson & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2016. "Small open economies in the vast oceanof global high finance," Economics wp73, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    23. Roberto Casarin & Komla Mawulom Agudze & Monica Billio & Eric Girardin, 2014. "Growth-cycle phases in China�s provinces: A panel Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2014:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    24. Nikos C. Papapostolou & Nikos K. Nomikos & Panos K. Pouliasis & Ioannis Kyriakou, 2014. "Investor Sentiment for Real Assets: The Case of Dry Bulk Shipping Market," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1507-1539.
    25. Önundur Páll Ragnarsson & Jón Magnús Hannesson & Loftur Hreinsson, 2019. "Financial cycles as early warning indicators - Lessons from the Nordic region," Economics wp80, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    26. Harding, Don, 2008. "Detecting and forecasting business cycle turning points," MPRA Paper 33583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Sumru Altug & Fabio Canova, 2012. "Do Institutions and Culture Matter for Business Cycles?," Working Papers 627, Barcelona School of Economics.
    28. João Loureiro & Manuel M. F. Martins & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2009. "Cape Verde: The Case for Euroization," FEP Working Papers 317, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    29. Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2009. "Credit crises, money, and contractions: A historical view," Working Papers (Old Series) 0908, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    31. Fotis Papailias & Dimitrios D. Thomakos, 2013. "The Baltic Dry Index: Cyclicalities, Forecasting and Hedging Strategies," Working Paper series 65_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    32. Thierry Aimar & Francis Bismans & Claude Diebolt, 2010. "Le cycle économique : une synthèse," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 24(4), pages 3-65.
    33. Li, Haixi & Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Yang, Jingyun, 2021. "Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 500-510.
    34. Kenneth W Clements & Grace Gao, 2013. "A Multi-Market Approach to Measuring the Cycle," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 13-16, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    35. Michael Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard Wall, 2011. "Discordant City Employment Cycles," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1525, European Regional Science Association.
    36. Svatopluk Kapounek & Zuzana Kucerova, 2018. "Historical Decoupling in the EU: Evidence from Time-Frequency Analysis," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2018-75, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    37. Nissilä, Wilma, 2020. "Probit based time series models in recession forecasting – A survey with an empirical illustration for Finland," BoF Economics Review 7/2020, Bank of Finland.
    38. Amat Adarov, 2019. "Financial Cycles in Europe: Dynamics, Synchronicity and Implications for Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Imbalances," wiiw Working Papers 166, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    39. Zanetti Chini, Emilio, 2018. "Forecasting dynamically asymmetric fluctuations of the U.S. business cycle," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 711-732.
    40. Michael Artis & Marianne Sensier, 2011. "Tracking Unemployment in Wales through Recession and into Recovery," SERC Discussion Papers 0079, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    41. Veaceslav Grigoras & Irina Eusignia Stanciu, 2016. "New evidence on the (de)synchronisation of business cycles: Reshaping the European business cycle," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 147, pages 27-52.
    42. Pieter Laubscher, 2014. "A new recession-dating algorithm for South Africa," Working Papers 06/2014, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    43. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Matheron, J., 2003. "Interactions between business cycles, stock market cycles and interest rates: the stylised facts," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 3, pages 80-99, November.
    44. Balázs Égert & Douglas Sutherland, 2014. "The Nature of Financial and Real Business Cycles: The Great Moderation and Banking Sector Pro-Cyclicality," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(1), pages 98-117, February.
    45. Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Rafał Kierzenkowski & Catherine Lubochinsky, 2006. "Cycles réel et du crédit : convergence ou divergence ?. Une comparaison Pologne, Hongrie, République tchèque et zone euro," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 57(4), pages 851-879.
    46. Pami Dua & Vineeta Sharma, 2013. "Measurement And Patterns Of International Synchronization-- A Spectral Approach," Working papers 224, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    47. Andrea Giusto & Jeremy Piger, 2013. "Nowcasting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points with Vector Quantization," Working Papers daleconwp2013-02, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    48. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2006. "The New Zealand Business Cycle: Return To Golden Days?," CAMA Working Papers 2006-21, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    49. Chatterji, P & Joo, H & Lahiri, K, 2011. "Beware of Being Unaware: Racial Disparities in Chronic Illness in the US," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 11/11, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    50. Meller, Barbara & Metiu, Norbert, 2017. "The synchronization of credit cycles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 98-111.
    51. Jayaram, Shruthi & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2009. "Examining the decoupling hypothesis for India," Working Papers 09/61, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    52. Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2020. "Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession: An Extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," Working Papers halshs-02443364, HAL.
    53. Ritabrata Bose & Ashima Goyal, 2020. "Disaggregated Indian industrial cycles: A Spectral analysis," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2020-033, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
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    198. Greg Farrell & Esti Kemp, 2020. "Measuring the Financial Cycle in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 123-144, June.
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    202. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterising the Cycle," Working Papers 663, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    203. Marco Centoni & Gianluca Cubadda, 2011. "Modelling Comovements of Economic Time Series: A Selective Survey," CEIS Research Paper 215, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 26 Oct 2011.
    204. Urga, Giovanni & Wang, Fa, 2022. "Estimation and Inference for High Dimensional Factor Model with Regime Switching," MPRA Paper 117012, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Apr 2023.
    205. Schüler, Yves S. & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Hiebert, Paul, 2017. "Coherent financial cycles for G-7 countries: Why extending credit can be an asset," ESRB Working Paper Series 43, European Systemic Risk Board.
    206. Gaston Giordana & Sabbah Gueddoudj, 2016. "Characterising the financial cycle in Luxembourg," BCL working papers 103, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    207. Lorenzo Ductor & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2015. "Dynamics of Global Business Cycles Interdependence," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 763, Central Bank of Chile.
    208. Eraslan, Sercan & Nöller, Marvin, 2020. "Recession probabilities falling from the STARs," Discussion Papers 08/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    209. Petr Rozmahel, 2011. "Measuring the business cycles similarity and convergence trends in the Central and Eastern European countries towards the Eurozone with respect to some unclear methodological aspects," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 59(2), pages 237-250.
    210. Mercè Sala-Rios & Teresa Torres-Solé & Mariona Farré-Perdiguer, 2018. "Immigrants’ employment and the business cycle in Spain: taking account of gender and origin," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(2), pages 463-490, August.
    211. Dutra, Tiago Mota & Dias, José Carlos & Teixeira, João C.A., 2022. "Measuring financial cycles: Empirical evidence for Germany, United Kingdom and United States of America," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 599-630.
    212. Chien-Chiang Lee & Mei-Ping Chen & Kuan-Mien Hsieh, 2012. "Industry herding and market states: evidence from Chinese stock markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 1091-1113, October.
    213. Edoardo Otranto, 2005. "Extraction of Common Signal from Series with Different Frequency," Econometrics 0502011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    214. António M Lopes & J A Tenreiro Machado & John S Huffstot & Maria Eugénia Mata, 2018. "Dynamical analysis of the global business-cycle synchronization," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-25, February.
    215. Luís Francisco Aguiar & Maria Joana Soares, 2010. "Business Cycle Synchronization and the Euro: a Wavelet Analysis," NIPE Working Papers 36/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    216. Ntantamis, Christos & Zhou, Jun, 2015. "Bull and bear markets in commodity prices and commodity stocks: Is there a relation?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 61-81.
    217. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2005. "Global Demographic Change And Japanese Macroeconomic Performance," CAMA Working Papers 2005-13, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    218. Jitka Poměnková & Svatopluk Kapounek & Roman Maršálek, 2014. "Variability of Dynamic Correlation - The Evidence of Sector-Specific Shocks in V4 Countries," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(3), pages 371-387.
    219. Arif Widodo, 2020. "Measuring Cyclical Behavior of Islamic and Conventional Financing: Evidence from Indonesian Dual Banking System قياس سلوك التمويل الإسلامي والتمويل التقليدي: دليل من النظام المصرفي الإندونيسي المزدوج," Journal of King Abdulaziz University: Islamic Economics, King Abdulaziz University, Islamic Economics Institute., vol. 33(2), pages 173-192, July.
    220. Döhrn, Roland, 2013. "Transportation Data as a Tool for Nowcasting Economic Activity – The German Road Pricing System as an Example," Ruhr Economic Papers 395, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    221. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2008. "How informative are macroeconomic risk forecasts? An examination of the Bank of England's inflation forecasts," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,14, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    222. Nikola Najman & Petr Rozmahel, 2013. "Business cycle coherence and OCA endogeneity testing during the integration period in the European Union," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 1033-1040.
    223. Mr. Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin & Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 2006/009, International Monetary Fund.
    224. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "Rejoinder to James Hamilton," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1695-1698, July.
    225. Hiebert, Paul & Jaccard, Ivan & Schüler, Yves, 2018. "Contrasting financial and business cycles: Stylized facts and candidate explanations," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 72-80.
    226. Urga, Giovanni & Wang, Fa, 2024. "Estimation and inference for high dimensional factor model with regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 241(2).
    227. Fabio Canova, 2010. "EconomicDynamics Interviews Fabio Canova on the Estimation of Business Cycle Models," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(2), April.
    228. Adanero-Donderis , M. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2007. "Deux indicateurs probabilistes de retournement cyclique pour l’économie française," Working papers 187, Banque de France.
    229. Andrade, Sandro C. & Ekponon, Adelphe & Jeanneret, Alexandre, 2023. "Sovereign risk premia and global macroeconomic conditions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 172-197.
    230. Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2019. "Measuring business cycle conditions in India," Working Papers 19/269, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    231. Jitka POMĚNKOVÁ & Roman MARŠÁLEK, 2012. "Time and frequency domain in the business cycle structure," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 58(7), pages 332-346.
    232. Carlos Cuerpo & Ángel Cuevas & Enrique M. Quilis, 2018. "Estimating output gap: a beauty contest approach," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 275-304, August.
    233. Proietti, Tommaso, 2005. "New algorithms for dating the business cycle," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 477-498, April.
    234. Roberts, Mark C., 2009. "Duration and characteristics of metal price cycles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 87-102, September.
    235. Lillie Lam & James Yetman, 2013. "Asia’s decoupling: fact, forecast or fiction?," BIS Working Papers 438, Bank for International Settlements.

  48. James Engel & David Haugh & Adrian Pagan, 2004. "Some methods for assessing the need for non-linear models in business cycle analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2004-07, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Emilio Zanetti Chini, 2018. "Forecaster’s utility and forecasts coherence," CREATES Research Papers 2018-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Shelley, Gary L. & Wallace, Frederick H., 2011. "Further evidence regarding nonlinear trend reversion of real GDP and the CPI," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 56-59, July.
    3. Fok, D. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2004. "Forecasting aggregates using panels of nonlinear time series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2004-44, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    4. Zanetti Chini, Emilio, 2018. "Forecasting dynamically asymmetric fluctuations of the U.S. business cycle," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 711-732.
    5. Silva Lopes, Artur C. & Florin Zsurkis, Gabriel, 2017. "Are linear models really unuseful to describe business cycle data?," MPRA Paper 79413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Frédérick Demers & Ryan Macdonald, 2007. "The Canadian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Models," Staff Working Papers 07-38, Bank of Canada.
    7. Lopes, Artur Silva & Zsurkis, Gabriel Florin, 2017. "Are linear models really unuseful to describe business cycle data?," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Ferrara, Laurent & Darné, Olivier, 2009. "Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7376, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Michael Arghyrou, 2009. "Monetary policy before and after the euro: evidence from Greece," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 621-643, June.
    10. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gregoriou, Andros, 2008. "Non-linearity versus non-normality in real exchange rate dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 200-203, August.
    11. Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Sandra Pasch, 2021. "Income Business Cycles," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1964, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Alqaralleh, Huthaifa & Almajali Mutah, Awon & Canepa, Alessandra, 2024. "Navigating Energy Market Cycles: Insights from a Comprehensive Analysis," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202422, University of Turin.
    13. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2015. "Identifying and characterizing business and acceleration cycles of French jobseekers Identifying and characterizing business and acceleration cycles of French jobseekers," Working Papers hal-01160090, HAL.
    14. Emilio Zanetti Chini, 2019. "Strategic judgment: its game-theoretic foundations,its econometric elicitation," Working Papers in Public Economics 190, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    15. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gregoriou, Andros, 2007. "Testing for Purchasing Power Parity correcting for non-normality using the wild bootstrap," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 285-290, May.
    16. Louis J. Maccini & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Inventories, Fluctuations and Business Cycles. Working paper #4," NCER Working Paper Series 4, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    17. Pasch, Sandra & Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine, 2020. "On the cyclicity of the income distribution," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224654, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Silva Lopes, Artur C. & Florin Zsurkis, Gabriel, 2015. "Revisiting non-linearities in business cycles around the world," MPRA Paper 65668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Arora Siddharth & Little Max A. & McSharry Patrick E., 2013. "Nonlinear and nonparametric modeling approaches for probabilistic forecasting of the US gross national product," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 395-420, September.

  49. A. Pagan & J. Engel & D. Haugh, 2004. "Some Methods for Assessing the Need for Non-linear Models in Business Cycle Analysis and Forecasting," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 284, Econometric Society.

    Cited by:

    1. Fok, D. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2004. "Forecasting aggregates using panels of nonlinear time series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2004-44, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    2. Frédérick Demers & Ryan Macdonald, 2007. "The Canadian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Models," Staff Working Papers 07-38, Bank of Canada.

  50. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2004. "A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research," CAMA Working Papers 2004-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Abberger & Michael Graff & Boriss Siliverstovs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2014. "The KOF Economic Barometer, Version 2014," KOF Working papers 14-353, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    2. Sumru Altug & Fabio Canova, 2012. "Do Institutions and Culture Matter for Business Cycles?," Working Papers 627, Barcelona School of Economics.
    3. João Loureiro & Manuel M. F. Martins & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2009. "Cape Verde: The Case for Euroization," FEP Working Papers 317, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    4. Zerbo, Eléazar & Darné, Olivier, 2019. "On the stationarity of CO2 emissions in OECD and BRICS countries: A sequential testing approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 319-332.
    5. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
    6. Veaceslav Grigoras & Irina Eusignia Stanciu, 2016. "New evidence on the (de)synchronisation of business cycles: Reshaping the European business cycle," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 147, pages 27-52.
    7. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    8. Ramirez, Francisco A., 2009. "Perturbaciones Internacionales y Fluctuaciones del Producto Interno Bruto en una Economía en Desarrollo: Evidencia de República Dominicana para el Período 1998-2008 [International Shocks and GDP fl," MPRA Paper 38987, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Balázs Égert & Douglas Sutherland, 2014. "The Nature of Financial and Real Business Cycles: The Great Moderation and Banking Sector Pro-Cyclicality," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(1), pages 98-117, February.
    10. Fatma Erdem & Erdal Özmen, 2015. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 1041-1058, November.
    11. Zapata, Hector O. & Detre, Joshua D. & Hanabuchi, Tatsuya, 2012. "Historical Performance of Commodity and Stock Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 339-357, August.
    12. Stan Du Plessis, 2006. "Reconsidering the business cycle and stabilisation policies in South Africa," Working Papers 010, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    13. German Forero-Laverde, 2016. "Are All Booms and Busts Created Equal? A New Methodology for Understanding Bull and Bear Stock Markets," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2016/339, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    14. Frédérick Demers & Ryan Macdonald, 2007. "The Canadian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Models," Staff Working Papers 07-38, Bank of Canada.
    15. Christian Gillitzer & Jonathan Kearns & Anthony Richards, 2005. "The Australian Business Cycle: A Coincident Indicator Approach," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    16. Rafael R. S. Guimaraes, 2022. "Deep Learning Macroeconomics," Papers 2201.13380, arXiv.org.
    17. Philippe Moës, 2012. "Multivariate models with dual cycles: implications for output gap and potential growth measurement," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 791-818, June.
    18. Tara Sinclair & Sinchan Mitra, 2008. "Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach," Working Papers 2008-04, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    19. Beate Schirwitz, 2009. "A comprehensive German business cycle chronology," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 287-301, October.
    20. Sybille Lehwald, 2013. "Has the Euro changed business cycle synchronization? Evidence from the core and the periphery," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 655-684, November.
    21. Bovi, M., 2005. "Economic Clubs and European Commitment. Evidence from the International Business Cycles," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(2), pages 101-122.
    22. Nalan Basturk & Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Bayesian Forecasting of US Growth using Basic Time Varying Parameter Models and Expectations Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-119/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 14 Sep 2014.
    23. Gogas, Periklis & Kothroulas, George, 2009. "Two speed Europe and business cycle synchronization in the European Union: The effect of the common currency," MPRA Paper 13909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2014. "Measuring the natural rates, gaps, and deviation cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 495-522, September.
    25. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2016. "The Beveridge–Nelson decomposition of mixed-frequency series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1415-1441, December.
    26. Jitka Poměnková & Roman Maršálek, 2015. "Empirical Evidence of Ideal Filter Approximation: Peripheral and Selected EU Countries Application," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(5), pages 485-502.
    27. Titelman Kardonsky, Daniel & Carvallo, Pablo & Pérez Caldentey, Esteban, 2013. "Weak expansions: a distinctive feature of the business cycle in Latin America and the Caribbean," Financiamiento para el Desarrollo 5224, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    28. Llobet-Dalmases, Joan & Plana-Erta, Dolors & Uribe, Jorge M., 2023. "Cyclical capital structure decisions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    29. Hiebert, Paul & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Schüler, Yves S., 2015. "Characterising the financial cycle: a multivariate and time-varying approach," Working Paper Series 1846, European Central Bank.
    30. Marcelle Chauvet & Rafael R. S. Guimaraes, 2021. "Transfer Learning for Business Cycle Identification," Working Papers Series 545, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    31. Mastromarco, Camilla & Woitek, Ulrich, 2007. "Regional business cycles in Italy," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 907-918, October.
    32. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
    33. Ardila, Diego & Sornette, Didier, 2016. "Dating the financial cycle with uncertainty estimates: a wavelet proposition," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 298-304.
    34. Sumru Altuğ & Melike Bildirici, 2010. "Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime Switching Approach," Working Papers 0032, Yildiz Technical University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2010.
    35. Lee, Kevin & Shields, Kalvinder K., 2011. "Decision-making in hard times: What is a recession, why do we care and how do we know when we are in one?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 43-60, January.
    36. German Forero-Laverde, 2018. "A New Indicator for Describing Bull and Bear Markets," Working Papers 0129, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    37. Neveu, Andre R., 2013. "Fiscal policy and business cycle characteristics in a heterogeneous agent macro model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 224-240.
    38. Altug, Sumru & Neyapti, Bilin & Emin, Mustafa, 2012. "Institutions and Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 8728, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    39. Craigwell, Roland & Maurin, Alain, 2007. "A sectoral analysis of Barbados’ GDP business cycle," MPRA Paper 33428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Dumitru, Ionut & Dumitru, Ionela, 2010. "Business Cycle Correlation of the New Meber States with Eurozone - The Case of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 16-31, December.
    41. Juergen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2012. "Regional and Sectoral Business Cycles - Key Features for the Austrian economy," EcoMod2012 4074, EcoMod.
    42. Kee Tuan Teng & Siew Hwa Yen & Soo Y. Chua, 2013. "The Synchronisation of ASEAN-5 Stock Markets with the Growth Rate Cycles of Selected Emerging and Developed Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 7(1), pages 1-28, February.
    43. Stan du Plessis, 2006. "Business Cycles in Emerging market Economies: A New View of the Stylised Facts," Working Papers 02/2006, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    44. Teng Kee Tuan & Yen Siew Hwa & Chua Soo Yean, 2013. "Synchronisation of Stock Market Cycles: The Importance of Emerging and Developed Markets to ASEAN-5," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(4), pages 435-458.
    45. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterising the Cycle," Working Papers 663, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    46. -, 2012. "Structural change for equality: an integrated approach to development. Thirty-four session of ECLAC. Summary," Libros y Documentos Institucionales, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 13535 edited by Eclac.
    47. Schüler, Yves S. & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Hiebert, Paul, 2017. "Coherent financial cycles for G-7 countries: Why extending credit can be an asset," ESRB Working Paper Series 43, European Systemic Risk Board.
    48. Dimitar Zlatinov, 2017. "Effects of Business Cycle on Private Consumption in Bulgaria during the Global Financial and Economic Crisis)," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 91-107.
    49. Beate Schirwitz, 2013. "Business Fluctuations, Job Flows and Trade Unions - Dynamics in the Economy," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 47.
    50. Eraslan, Sercan & Nöller, Marvin, 2020. "Recession probabilities falling from the STARs," Discussion Papers 08/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    51. Niaz Ali & Muhammad Tariq & Asia Baig, 2017. "A Statistical Investigation of Business Cycles Characteristics in Pakistan," Global Economics Review, Humanity Only, vol. 2(1), pages 73-84, December.
    52. Schüler, Yves S., 2018. "Detrending and financial cycle facts across G7 countries: mind a spurious medium term!," Working Paper Series 2138, European Central Bank.
    53. -, 2012. "Structural change for equality: an integrated approach to development. Thirty-four session of ECLAC. Summary," Documentos de posición del período de sesiones de la Comisión 13535, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    54. Yves Schueler, 2024. "Filtering economic time series: On the cyclical properties of Hamilton’s regression filter and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 54, October.
    55. Philippe Moës, 2008. "Multivariate structural time series models with dual cycles : implications for measurement of output gap and potential growth," Working Paper Research 136, National Bank of Belgium.
    56. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Priftis, Romanos & Angelini, Elena & Bańbura, Marta & Bokan, Nikola & Fagan, Gabriel & Gumiel, José Emilio & Kornprobst, Antoine & Lalik, Magdalena & Mo, 2024. "ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis," Occasional Paper Series 344, European Central Bank.
    57. Willem Boshoff, 2005. "The properties of cycles in South African financial variables and their relation to the business cycle," Working Papers 02/2005, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    58. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Inekwe, John & Ivanovski, Kris & Smyth, Russell, 2020. "Stationarity properties of per capita CO2 emissions in the OECD in the very long-run: A replication and extension analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    59. Hao Tan & John A. Mathews, 2007. "Cyclical Dynamics in Three Industries," DRUID Working Papers 07-07, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
    60. Koki Kyo & Hideo Noda & Genshiro Kitagawa, 2022. "Co-movement of Cyclical Components Approach to Construct a Coincident Index of Business Cycles," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(1), pages 101-127, March.

  51. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2001. "Extracting, Using and Analysing Cyclical Information," MPRA Paper 15, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Cited by:

    1. António Rua & Luís Catela Nunes, 2003. "Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Euro Area: A Frequency Band Approach," Working Papers w200307, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Emanuel Mönch & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(1), pages 43-69.
    3. J. Polzehl & V. Spokoiny & C. Starica, 2004. "When did the 2001 recession really start?," Econometrics 0411017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Dating Business Cycles: A Methodological Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(4), pages 537-565, September.
    5. Cesaroni, Tatiana & Maccini, Louis & Malgarini, Marco, 2011. "Business cycle stylized facts and inventory behaviour: New evidence for the Euro area," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 12-24, September.
    6. Mr. Thomas Helbling & Mr. Tamim Bayoumi, 2003. "Are they All in the Same Boat? the 2000-2001 Growth Slowdown and the G-7 Business Cycle Linkages," IMF Working Papers 2003/046, International Monetary Fund.
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    750. Kiseok Hong, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Issues in Korea after the Current Crisis," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22754, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    751. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "Rejoinder to James Hamilton," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1695-1698, July.
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    753. Hiebert, Paul & Jaccard, Ivan & Schüler, Yves, 2018. "Contrasting financial and business cycles: Stylized facts and candidate explanations," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 72-80.
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    756. Fabio Canova, 2010. "EconomicDynamics Interviews Fabio Canova on the Estimation of Business Cycle Models," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(2), April.
    757. Maria Dolores Gadea Rivas & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2015. "The Failure To Predict The Great Recession—A View Through The Role Of Credit," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 534-559, June.
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    759. Samet Günay, 2014. "Are the Scaling Properties of Bull and Bear Markets Identical? Evidence from Oil and Gold Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-20, October.
    760. Banegas Rivero, Roger Alejandro & Vergara González, Reyna, 2019. "Evaluación de escenarios fiscales para Bolivia," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 32, pages 132-168, November.
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    763. Kabundi, Alain & Loots, Elsabe, 2007. "Co-movement between South Africa and the Southern African Development Community: An empirical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 737-748, September.
    764. Willem Boshoff, 2005. "The properties of cycles in South African financial variables and their relation to the business cycle," Working Papers 02/2005, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    765. Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2019. "Measuring business cycle conditions in India," Working Papers 19/269, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    766. Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant & Rachidi Kotchoni, 2019. "Identification des points de retournement du cycle économique au Canada," CIRANO Project Reports 2019rp-05, CIRANO.
    767. Jitka POMĚNKOVÁ & Roman MARŠÁLEK, 2012. "Time and frequency domain in the business cycle structure," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 58(7), pages 332-346.
    768. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Inekwe, John & Ivanovski, Kris & Smyth, Russell, 2020. "Stationarity properties of per capita CO2 emissions in the OECD in the very long-run: A replication and extension analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    769. Angela Mucece Kithinji, 2021. "The Effect of Public Debt Composition and Government Expenditure on Economic Growth of Kenyan Government," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 5(8), pages 202-213.
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    776. Konstantin Kholodilin, 2015. "Speculative Bubbles in Urban Housing Markets in Germany," ERSA conference papers ersa15p67, European Regional Science Association.
    777. Le Roux, Julien & Roma, Moreno, 2019. "Accuracy and determinants of self-assessed euro area house prices," Working Paper Series 2328, European Central Bank.
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  53. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Dissecting the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.

    Cited by:

    1. Tony Hall & Jan Jacobs & Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Macro-Econometric System Modelling @75," CAMA Working Papers 2013-67, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2012. "Restatement of the I-O Coefficient Stability Problem," MPRA Paper 48567, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Sebastian Edwards & Javier Gomez Biscarri & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2003. "Stock Market Cycles, Financial Liberalization and Volatility," NBER Working Papers 9817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/8, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    5. Henry, O.T. & Summers, P.M., 2000. "Australian Economic Growth: Non-Linearities and Internaitonal Influences," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 738, The University of Melbourne.
    6. Adrian Pagan, 2001. "The Getting of Macroeconomic Wisdom," International Economic Association Series, in: Jacques Drèze (ed.), Advances in Macroeconomic Theory, chapter 11, pages 219-235, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Clements, M.C. & Krolzig, H.-M., 2001. "Modelling Business Cycle Features Using Switching Regime Models," Economics Series Working Papers 9958, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Bertrand Candelon & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2004. "Fractional integration and business cycle features," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 343-359, May.
    9. Allan Layton & Anirvan Banerji, 2003. "What is a recession?: A reprise," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(16), pages 1789-1797.
    10. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
    11. Celsa Machado, 2001. "Measuring Business Cycles: The Real Business Cycle Approach and Related Controversies," FEP Working Papers 107, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    12. Michael Tomz & Mark L. J. Wright, 2007. "Do Countries Default In "Bad Times"?," CAMA Working Papers 2007-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Abbritti, Mirko & Fahr, Stephan, 2013. "Downward wage rigidity and business cycle asymmetries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 871-886.
    14. Mr. Paul Cashin & Mr. Sam Ouliaris, 2001. "Key Features of Australian Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2001/171, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Chris R. Birchenhall & Marianne Sensier & Denise R. Osborn, 2000. "Predicting Uk Business Cycle Regimes," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 134, Society for Computational Economics.
    16. Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2002. "The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 450, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    17. Siem Jan Koopman & Joao Valle e Azevedo, 2003. "Measuring Synchronisation and Convergence of Business Cycles," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-052/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. Penelope A. Smith & Peter M. Summers, 2004. "How Well Do Markov Switching Models Describe Actual Business Cycles? The Case of Synchronization," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2004n09, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    19. Michael Artis & Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Factor forecasts for the UK," Working Papers 203, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    20. Monica Billio & Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara & Marco Lo Duca, 2007. "A turning point chronology for the Euro-zone," Working Papers 2007_33, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    21. Duo Qin, 2010. "Econometric Studies of Business Cycles in the History of Econometrics," Working Papers 669, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    22. Kirill Sossunov, 2002. "A Real Business Cycle Model with Changing Sentiments," Macroeconomics 0210005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Artis, Michael J & Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Toro, Juan, 1999. "The European Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 2242, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2002. "Classical and Modern Business Cycle Measurement: The European Case," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/20, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    25. Alain Hecq, 2005. "Should we really care about building business cycle coincident indexes!," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 141-144.
    26. George Athanasopoulos & Heather M. Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2007. "Nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of output in G-7 countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 63-87.
    27. McKay, Alisdair, 2006. "The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Agnieszka Stążka-Gawrysiak, 2011. "Poland on the road to the euro: How serious is the risk of boom-bust cycles after the euro adoption? An empirical analysis," NBP Working Papers 103, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    29. Kozmenko, Serhiy & Savchenko, Taras, 2011. "Countercyclical monetary policy in major economies of the Commonwealth of Independent States," MPRA Paper 50792, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "The myth of co-moving commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    31. Penelope A. Smith & Peter M. Summers, 2002. "Regime Switches in GDP Growth and Volatility: Some International Evidence and Implications for Modelling Business Cycles," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2002n21, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    32. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2007. "Co-movement in the price of risk of aggregate equity markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 256-271, September.
    33. Ramaprasad Bhar, 2010. "Stochastic Filtering with Applications in Finance," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7736, August.
    34. Mirko Abbritti; Sebastian Weber, 2008. "Labor Market Rigidities and the Business Cycle: Price vs. Quantity Restricting Institutions," IHEID Working Papers 01-2008, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jan 2008.
    35. Rossen, Anja, 2015. "What are metal prices like? Co-movement, price cycles and long-run trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 255-276.
    36. L.A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Fractional Cyclical Structures & Business Cycles in the Specification of the US Real Output," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 99-126.
    37. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2001. "Markov-Switching Procedures for Dating the Euro-Zone Business Cycle," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 339-351.
    38. Matthieu Lemoine, 2005. "A model of the stochastic convergence between business cycles," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-05, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    39. Dovern, Jonas & Zuber, Christopher, 2017. "The Effect of Recessions on Potential Output Estimates: Size, Timing, and Determinants," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168180, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    40. Mardi Dungey & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-342, December.
    41. Farshid Vahid & Lin Luo, 2004. "Forecasting Australian GDP Growth Using Coefficients Constrained by A Term Structure Model," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 232, Econometric Society.

  54. David Gruen & Adrian Pagan & Christopher Thompson, 1999. "The Phillips Curve in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.

    Cited by:

    1. Lie, Denny & Yadav, Anirudh S., 2015. "Time-Varying Trend Inflation and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Australia," Working Papers 2015-14, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    2. Mallick, Debdulal, 2019. "Policy regimes and the shape of the Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1077-1094.
    3. David Norman & Anthony Richards, 2012. "The Forecasting Performance of Single Equation Models of Inflation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(280), pages 64-78, March.
    4. Jenny Lye & Joe Hirschberg, 2018. "Ratios of Parameters: Some Econometric Examples," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(4), pages 578-602, December.
    5. Li, Zheng & Zhou, Bo & Hensher, David A., 2022. "Forecasting automobile gasoline demand in Australia using machine learning-based regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    6. Renée Fry & James Hocking & Vance L. Martin, 2008. "The Role of Portfolio Shocks in a Structural Vector Autoregressive Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(264), pages 17-33, March.
    7. Nicolaas Groenewold, 2001. "Long-Run Shifts of the Beveridge Curve and the Frictional Unemployment Rate in Australia," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 01-09, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    8. Gerlach, Stefan & Lydon, Reamonn & Stuart, Rebecca, 2015. "Unemployment and inflation in Ireland: 1926-2012," CFS Working Paper Series 514, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    9. G.C. Lim & R. Dixon & S. Tsiaplias, 2009. "Phillips Curve and the Equalibrium Unemployment Rate," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1070, The University of Melbourne.
    10. Meyler, Aidan, 1999. "The non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) in a small open economy: The irish context," MPRA Paper 11363, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Paul, Biru Paksha, 2009. "In search of the Phillips curve for India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 479-488, September.
    12. Elaine Chung & Marion Kohler & Christine Lewis, 2011. "The Exchange Rate and Consumer Prices," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 9-16, September.
    13. Jeff Borland & Ian McDonald, 2000. "Labour Market Models of Unemployment in Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2000n15, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    14. Bank for International Settlements, 2001. "Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 03, October –.
    15. Franz, Wolfgang, 2003. "Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand up?," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-35, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    16. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2008. "Labour Market Dynamics in Australia: What Drives Unemployment?," Discussion Papers 2008-26, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    17. Robert Dixon & John Freebairn & G. C. Lim, 2006. "Time-Varying Equilibrium Rates of Unemployment: An Analysis with Australian Data," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2006n11, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    18. Mardi Dungey & John Pitchford, 2000. "The Steady Inflation Rate of Economic Growth," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 386-400, December.
    19. Gruen, David & Pagan, Adrian & Thompson, Christopher, 1999. "The Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 223-258, October.
    20. Franz Wolfgang, 2001. "Neues von der NAIRU? / News from the NAIRU?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 221(3), pages 256-284, June.
    21. Palle S Andersen & William L Wascher, 2001. "Understanding the recent behaviour of inflation: an empirical study of wage and price developments in eight countries," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 267-302, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Li-gang Liu & Andrew Tsang, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Inflation in Hong Kong," Working Papers 0802, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    23. Leu, Shawn Chen-Yu, 2011. "A New Keynesian SVAR model of the Australian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 157-168, January.
    24. Adam Cagliarini & Christopher Kent & Glenn Stevens, 2010. "Fifty Years of Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Michael Robson (ed.),Reserve Bank of Australia 50th Anniversary Symposium, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    25. Lei Lei Song & John Freebairn, 2004. "ow Big Was the Effect of Budget Consolidation on the Australian Economy in the 1990s?," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2004n30, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    26. Mohammed Saiful Islam & Riduanul Mustafa, 2017. "Quest for a Valid Phillips Curve in the Long Run: An Empirical Approach," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(4), pages 191-198, April.
    27. Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho, 2008. "Searching for the Natural Rate of Unemployment in a Large Relative Price Shocks' Economy: the Brazilian Case," Working Papers Series 163, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    28. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2000. "Assessing nominal income rules for monetary policy with model and data uncertainty," Working Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
    29. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stráský, Jan, 2008. "Oil exporters: in search of an external anchor," Working Paper Series 958, European Central Bank.
    30. Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone & Marileze van Zyl, 2003. "The Real-time Forecasting Performance of Phillips Curves," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    31. Giancarlo Bertocco, 2005. "The Role of credit in a Keynesian monetary economy," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 489-511.
    32. Jacqueline Dwyer, 2003. "Nominal Wage Rigidity in Australia," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 6(1), pages 5-24, March.
    33. Jane E. Ihrig & Jaime R. Marquez, 2003. "An empirical analysis of inflation in OECD countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 765, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    34. Gerlach, Stefan & Lydon, Reamonn & Stuart, Rebecca, 2014. "The Phillips Curve in Ireland: 1935 - 2012," CEPR Discussion Papers 10010, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    35. Chris Ryan & Christopher Thompson, 2000. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    36. Nicolaas Groenewold & Sam Hak Kan Tang, 2001. "The Asian Financial Crisis and Natural Rate of Unemployment: Estimates from a Structural VAR for the Newly Industrializing Economies of Asia," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 01-12, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    37. W D A Bryant, 2009. "General Equilibrium:Theory and Evidence," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 6875, August.
    38. Nicolaas Groenewold, 2003. "Long-Run Shifts of the Beveridge Curve and the Frictional Unemployment Rate in Australia," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 6(1), pages 65-82, March.
    39. Tim Robinson & Viet H. Nguyen & Jiao Wang, 2017. "The Australian Economy in 2016–17: Looking Beyond the Apartment Construction Boom," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 50(1), pages 5-20, March.
    40. Kevin S. Nell, 2006. "Structural Change And Nonlinearities In A Phillips Curve Model For South Africa," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 600-617, October.
    41. Juncal Cunado Eizaguirre & Fernando Pérez de Gracía Hidalgo, "undated". "Tasa de sacrificio en la UEM: Un análisis empírico," Studies on the Spanish Economy 70, FEDEA.
    42. Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2001. "Is the Short-run Phillips Curve Nonlinear? Empirical Evidence for Australia, Sweden and the United States," Working Paper Series 124, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    43. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Natália Ferreira Trigo, 2024. "What is the effect of imported inflation and central bank credibility on the poor and rich?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(21), pages 2520-2543, May.
    44. Hirschberg, J.G. & Lye, J.N., 2010. "Two geometric representations of confidence intervals for ratios of linear combinations of regression parameters: An application to the NAIRU," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 73-76, July.
    45. Florian Kajuth, 2016. "NAIRU Estimates for Germany: New Evidence on the Inflation–Unemployment Tradeoff," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 17(1), pages 104-125, February.
    46. Alvaro Aguiar & Manuel Martins, 2005. "Testing the significance and the non-linearity of the Phillips trade-off in the Euro Area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 665-691, October.
    47. Leu, Shawn, 2004. "A New Keynesian Perspective of Monetary Policy Implementation in Austr alia," Working Papers 1, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    48. Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho, 2008. "Buscando la tasa natural de desempleo en una economía expuesta a grandes choques de precios relativos: el caso de Brasil," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 426-464, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    49. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Diana N. Weymark, 2007. "Fiscal leadership and central bank design," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 607-627, May.
    50. Quaas, Georg & Klein, Mathias, 2010. "Is the Phillips Curve of Germany Spurious?," MPRA Paper 26604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    51. Joerg Scheibe & David Vines, 2005. "A Phillips Curve For China," CAMA Working Papers 2005-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    52. Nelson, Edward, 2005. "Monetary Policy Neglect and the Great Inflation in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand," MPRA Paper 822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    53. Alexander Ballantyne & Daniel De Voss & David Jacobs, 2014. "Unemployment and Spare Capacity in the Labour Market," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 7-20, September.
    54. Shawn Chen-Yu Leu, 2006. "A New Keynesian Perspective of Monetary Policy in Australia," Working Papers 2006.01, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    55. Syed Kanwar Abbas & Prasad Sankar Bhattacharya & Debdulal Mallick & Pasquale Sgro, 2016. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in a Small Open Economy: Empirical Evidence from Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(298), pages 409-434, September.
    56. A. J. Hagger & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2003. "Time to Ditch the Natural Rate?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(246), pages 324-335, September.
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    58. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa : eine Bestandsaufnahme (Structural unemployment in Europe * an inventory)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 36(4), pages 411-427.
    59. Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "Do we know how low inflation should be?," IHEID Working Papers 06-2001, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    60. Jared Bullen & Jacinta Greenwell & Michael Kouparitsas & David Muller & John O’Leary & Rhett Wilcox, 2014. "Treasury's medium-term economic projection methodology," Treasury Working Papers 2014-02, The Treasury, Australian Government, revised May 2014.
    61. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2001. "Extracting, Using and Analysing Cyclical Information," MPRA Paper 15, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    62. J.G. Hirschberg & J. N. Lye, 2007. "Providing Intuition to the Fieller Method with Two Geometric Representations using STATA and Eviews," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 992, The University of Melbourne.
    63. Enders, Walter & Hurn, Stan, 2002. "Asymmetric price adjustment and the Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 395-412, September.
    64. Chew Lian Chua & G. C. Lim & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2012. "A latent variable approach to forecasting the unemployment rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 229-244, April.
    65. Leon-Ledesma, Miguel & Peter McAdam, 2003. "Unemployment, Hysterisis and Transition," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 137, Royal Economic Society.
    66. Paolo Paruolo & Riccardo Girardi, 2010. "Wages and prices in Europe before and after the onset of the Monetary Union," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf1009, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
    67. Dixon, R. & Shepherd, D., 2000. "Trends and Cycles in Australian State and Territory Unemployment Rates," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 730, The University of Melbourne.
    68. Kajuth, Florian, 2012. "Identifying the Phillips curve through shifts in volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 975-991.
    69. David Shepherd & Ciaran Driver, 2003. "Inflation and Capacity Constraints in Australian Manufacturing Industry," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(245), pages 182-195, June.
    70. Katharine Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2002. "Inflation dynamics, marginal cost, and the output gap: evidence from three countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    71. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    72. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Sophie Saglio, 2014. "Is Globalization Weakening the Inflation–Output Relationship?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 744-758, September.
    73. Robert Leeson, 2000. "Inflation, Disinflation and the Natural Rate of Unemployment: A Dynamic Framework for Policy Analysis," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: David Gruen & Sona Shrestha (ed.),The Australian Economy in the 1990s, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    74. Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Zoë Mchugh, 2007. "Modelling Wages and Prices in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(261), pages 143-158, June.
    75. David Norman & Anthony Richards, 2010. "Modelling Inflation in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2010-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    76. Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renee, 2000. "A Multi-Country Structural VAR Model," Departmental Working Papers 2001-04, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    77. W A Razzak, 2002. "Monetary policy and forecasting inflation with and without the output gap," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    78. Yesim Kustepeli, 2005. "A comprehensive short-run analysis of a (possible) Turkish Phillips curve," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 581-591.
    79. A.J. Hagger & N. Groenewold, 2000. "Time to Ditch the Natural rate?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 00-09, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    80. Scobie, Grant M, 2020. "If Bill Phillips were Governor ...? Some implications of his work for contemporary macroeconomic policy," Working Paper Series 21096, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    81. Chew Lian Chua & Tim Robinson, 2018. "Why Has Australian Wages Growth Been So Low? A Phillips Curve Perspective," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(S1), pages 11-32, June.
    82. Jane Ihrig & Jaime Marquez, 2004. "An Empirical Analysis of Inflation in OECD Countries," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 61-84, March.
    83. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa: Eine Bestandsaufnahme," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 389, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    84. Australian Treasury, 2000. "Demographic influences on long-term economic growth in Australia," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 4, pages 27-48, December.
    85. Franz, Wolfgang, 2000. "Neues von der NAIRU?," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-41, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    86. Robert Dixon & John Freebairn & Emayenesh Seyoum-Tegegn, 2008. "State & Territory Beveridge Curvesand the National Equilibrium Unemployment Rate," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1033, The University of Melbourne.
    87. Juncal Cunnado & Fernando PErez De Gracia, 2003. "Sacrifice Ratios: Some lessons from EMU countries, 1960-2001," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 327-337.
    88. Jennifer V Greenslade & Richard G Pierse & Jumana Saleheen, 2003. "A Kalman filter approach to estimating the UK NAIRU," Bank of England working papers 179, Bank of England.
    89. Nilss Olekalns, 2002. "The Teaching of First Year Economics in Australian Universities," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 848, The University of Melbourne.
    90. Malikane Christopher, 2023. "A Traditional Nominal Wage Phillips Curve: Theory and Evidence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(324), pages 108-121, March.
    91. Paul Oslington, 2012. "General Equilibrium: Theory and Evidence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(282), pages 446-448, September.
    92. Chris Murphy, 2020. "Decisions in Designing an Australian Macroeconomic Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(314), pages 252-270, September.
    93. Abbas, Syed Kanwar & Sgro, Pasquale M., 2011. "New Keynesian Phillips Curve and inflation dynamics in Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 2022-2033, July.
    94. Lei Lei Song & John Freebairn, 2005. "Policies to Reduce Unemployment: Simulations with Treasury Macroeconomic Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(255), pages 351-366, December.

  55. Adrian Pagan, 1999. "The Getting of Macroeconomic Wisdom," CEPR Discussion Papers 412, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Ducanes, Geoffrey & Cagas, Marie Anne & Qin, Duo & Quising, Pilipinas & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn, 2005. "A Small Macroeconometric Model of the Philippine Economy," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 62, Asian Development Bank.
    2. João Valle e Azevedo, 2002. "Business Cycles: Cyclical Comovement Within the European Union in the Period 1960-1999. A Frequency Domain Approach," Working Papers w200205, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, April.
    4. Mr. Gene L. Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2003. "Asymmetric Adjustment and Nonlinear Dynamics in Real Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 2003/159, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Hyginus Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2005. "Asymmetric adjustment and nonlinear dynamics in real exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 15-39.
    6. Breunig, Robert V & Pagan, Adrian R, 2004. "Do Markov-switching models capture nonlinearities in the data?," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 401-407.
    7. Valle e Azevedo, João, 2007. "Interpretation of the Effects of Filtering Integrated Time Series," MPRA Paper 6574, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  56. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Knowing the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n12, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.

    Cited by:

    1. Marcelle Chauvet & Elcyon C. R. Lima & Brisne Vasquez, 2015. "Forecasting Brazilian Output in Real Time in the Presence of breaks: a Comparison Of Linear and Nonlinear Models," Discussion Papers 0118, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    2. Marcelle Chauvet, 2001. "The Brazilian Economic Fluctuations," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 033, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Business cycle phases in U.S. states," Working Papers 2003-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
    5. Sebastian Edwards & Javier Gomez Biscarri & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2003. "Stock Market Cycles, Financial Liberalization and Volatility," NBER Working Papers 9817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Harding, Don, 2008. "Detecting and forecasting business cycle turning points," MPRA Paper 33583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Adrian Pagan, 2001. "The Getting of Macroeconomic Wisdom," International Economic Association Series, in: Jacques Drèze (ed.), Advances in Macroeconomic Theory, chapter 11, pages 219-235, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Javier De Peña & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2002. "Do Spanish Stock Market Prices Follow a Random Walk?," Faculty Working Papers 01/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    9. Celsa Machado, 2001. "Measuring Business Cycles: The Real Business Cycle Approach and Related Controversies," FEP Working Papers 107, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    10. Veaceslav Grigoras & Irina Eusignia Stanciu, 2016. "New evidence on the (de)synchronisation of business cycles: Reshaping the European business cycle," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 147, pages 27-52.
    11. Massmann, Michael & Mitchell, James, 2003. "Reconsidering the evidence: Are Eurozone business cycles converging," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    12. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Guégan, D. & Ladoucette, S., 2002. "What is the Best Approach to Measure the Interdependence between Different Markets?," Working papers 95, Banque de France.
    13. Warren Thomson, 2016. "Influence of market states on industry returns," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(2), pages 119-134, March.
    14. Chauvet, Marcelle, 2002. "The Brazilian Business and Growth Cycles," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 56(1), January.
    15. Robert Inklaar & Jan Jacobs & Ward Romp, 2005. "Business Cycle Indexes: Does a Heap of Data Help?," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(3), pages 309-336.
    16. Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2002. "Dating Recessions from Industrial Production Indexes: An Analysis for Europe and the US," Faculty Working Papers 05/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    17. Michael D. Bordo & John S. Landon-Lane, 2012. "The Global Financial Crisis: Is It Unprecedented?," Chapters, in: Maurice Obstfeld & Dongchul Cho & Andrew Mason (ed.), Global Economic Crisis, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. knani, ramzi & fredj, ali, 2010. "Mondialisation et fluctuations des cycles économiques [globalisation and business cycle fluctuation]," MPRA Paper 22755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Yu, Ip-Wing & Fung, Kang-Por & Tam, Chi-Sang, 2010. "Assessing financial market integration in Asia - Equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2874-2885, December.
    20. Beate Schirwitz, 2009. "A comprehensive German business cycle chronology," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 287-301, October.
    21. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2014. "Measuring the natural rates, gaps, and deviation cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 495-522, September.
    22. Philip Bodman & Mark Crosby, 2005. "Are business cycles independent in the G7?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 483-499.
    23. Hyeon‐seung Huh, 2002. "Estimating Asymmetric Output Cost of Lowering Inflation for Australia," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 600-616, January.
    24. Michael D. Bordo & John S. Landon-Lane, 2010. "The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-08: Is it Unprecedented?," NBER Working Papers 16589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2001. "Extracting, Using and Analysing Cyclical Information," MPRA Paper 15, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Mr. C. John McDermott & Mr. Alasdair Scott, 2000. "Concordance in Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2000/037, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Harding, Don & Negara, Siwage, 2008. "Estimating baseline real business cycle models of the Australian economy," MPRA Paper 33556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Beatriz C. Galvao, Ana, 2002. "Can non-linear time series models generate US business cycle asymmetric shape?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 187-194, October.
    29. Adriana Fernandez & Evan F. Koenig & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "A real-time historical database for the OECD," Globalization Institute Working Papers 96, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    30. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Assessing the integration of Asia's equity and bond markets," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Regional financial integration in Asia: present and future, volume 42, pages 1-37, Bank for International Settlements.
    31. Andrea Brischetto & Graham Voss, 2000. "Forecasting Australian Economic Activity Using Leading Indicators," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    32. Distante, Roberta & Petrella, Ivan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2013. "Asymmetry Reversals and the Business Cycle," Economy and Society 151531, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    33. Harding, Don, 2002. "The Australian Business Cycle: A New View," MPRA Paper 3698, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Alex Joiner, 2000. "The Costs of Inflation and Unemployment in Australia," Working Papers 2000.05, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    35. Phil Bodman, "undated". "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric in Australia?," MRG Discussion Paper Series 0406, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    36. Ip-wing Yu & Laurence Fung & Chi-sang Tam, 2007. "Assessing Financial Market Integration In Asia - Equity Markets," Working Papers 0704, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    37. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Dissecting the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    38. Beate Schirwitz, 2013. "Business Fluctuations, Job Flows and Trade Unions - Dynamics in the Economy," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 47.
    39. Alasdair Scott, 2000. "Stylised facts from output gap measures," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    40. Marco Del Negro, 2001. "Turn, turn, turn: Predicting turning points in economic activity," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 86(Q2), pages 1-12.
    41. Marcelle Chauvet & Elcyon C. R. Lima & Brisne Vasquez, 2002. "Forecasting Brazilian output in the presence of breaks: a comparison of linear and nonlinear models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    42. Frederico Belo, 2001. "Some Facts About the Cyclical Convergence in the Euro Zone," Working Papers w200107, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    43. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "Rejoinder to James Hamilton," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1695-1698, July.
    44. Frederico Belo, 2001. "Some Facts about the Cyclical Convergence in the Euro Zone," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    45. Chauvet, Marcelle, 2001. "A Monthly Indicator of Brazilian GDP," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 21(1), May.

  57. A. Pagan, 1996. "The Shann Memorial Lecture, 1996: The Rise and Fall and Rise...of The Business Cycle," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 96-21, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. J.D. Hollingworth, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Australian Recessions: Part 2," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 97-17, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.

  58. Pagan, A., 1996. "The Rise and Fall and Rise ... of the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 349, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. J.D. Hollingworth, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Australian Recessions: Part 2," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 97-17, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    2. Courvisanos, Jerry, 2000. "The Dynamics of Innovation and Investment, with application to Australia 1984 - 1998," Research Memorandum 003, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

  59. Pagan, A.R., 1996. "Simulation Based Estimation of Some Factor Models in Econometrics," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 521, The University of Melbourne.

    Cited by:

    1. de Jong, Frank, 2000. "Time Series and Cross-Section Information in Affine Term-Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 300-314, July.
    2. Martin, V.L. & Wilkins, N.P., 1997. "Indirect Estimation of Arfima and Varfima Models," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 547, The University of Melbourne.
    3. Mardi Dungey & Vance L Martin & Adrian R Pagan, 2000. "A multivariate latent factor decomposition of international bond yield spreads," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 697-715.
    4. de Jong, F.C.J.M., 1997. "Time-series and cross section information in affine term structure models," Other publications TiSEM 08704828-0ee7-4069-8a94-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

  60. Pagan, A.R. & Hall, A.D. & Martin, V., 1995. "Modelling the Term Structure," Papers 284, Australian National University - Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Dankenbring, Henning, 1998. "Volatility estimates of the short term interest rate with an application to German data," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,96, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    2. Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2009. "Nonparametric Cointegration Analysis of Fractional Systems With Unknown Integration Orders," CREATES Research Papers 2009-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Matthew Pritsker, 1997. "Nonparametric density estimation and tests of continuous time interest rate models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Jun Yu & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "A Gaussian approach for continuous time models of the short-term interest rate," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(2), pages 1-3.
    5. S. Lardic & V. Mignon, 2002. "Term premium and long-range dependence in volatility : A FIGARCH-M estimation on some Asian countries," THEMA Working Papers 2002-26, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    6. Adeline Bachellerie & Jérôme Héricourt & Valérie Mignon, 2009. "From Various Degrees of Trade to Various Degrees of Financial Integration: What Do Interest Rates Have to Say?," Post-Print hal-00649936, HAL.
    7. Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    8. Clive G. Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008. "The dynamics of economics functions: modelling and forecasting the yield curve," Working Papers 0804, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    9. Di Matteo, T. & Aste, T. & Hyde, S.T. & Ramsden, S., 2005. "Interest rates hierarchical structure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 21-33.
    10. Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2000. "Structural Changes in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 2000-20, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    11. Alfaro, Rodrigo & Becerra, Juan Sebastian & Sagner, Andres, 2010. "Estimación de la estructura de tasas utilizando el modelo Dinámico Nelson Siegel: resultados para Chile y EEUU [The Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model: empirical results for Chile and US]," MPRA Paper 25912, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jun 2010.
    12. Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: an empirical investigation," Working Papers 2000-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Roberds, William & Whiteman, Charles H., 1999. "Endogenous term premia and anomalies in the term structure of interest rates: Explaining the predictability smile," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 555-580, December.
    14. Francis X. Diebold, 2004. "The Nobel Memorial Prize for Robert F. Engle," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(2), pages 165-185, June.
    15. Christopher S. Jones, 2003. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion in the Short-Term Interest Rate," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 793-843, July.
    16. Ballocchi, Giuseppe & Dacorogna, Michel M. & Hopman, Carl M. & Muller, Ulrich A. & Olsen, Richard B., 1999. "The intraday multivariate structure of the Eurofutures markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(5), pages 479-513, December.
    17. Petko Kalev & Brett Inder, 2006. "The information content of the term structure of interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 33-45.
    18. Clive G. Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2006. "The Impossibility of Stationary Yield Spreads and I(1) Yields under the Expectations Theory of the Term Structure," Economics Papers 2006-W05, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    19. Jose Luis Fernandez-Serrano & M. Dolores Robles-Fernandez, 2008. "Time-series model forecasts and structural breaks: evidence from Spanish pre-EMU interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(13), pages 1707-1721.
    20. Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2004. "A comparison of tests of nonlinear cointegration with application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 219-236.
    21. Ahrens, Ralf, 1999. "Improving market-based forecasts of short-term interest rates: Time-varying stationarity and the predictive content of switching regime-expectations," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/14, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    22. Pritsker, Matt, 1998. "Nonparametric Density Estimation and Tests of Continuous Time Interest Rate Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 449-487.
    23. S. Lardic & V. Mignon, 2002. "Fractional cointegration and term structure of interest rates," THEMA Working Papers 2002-28, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    24. Martin, V.L. & Wilkins, N.P., 1997. "Indirect Estimation of Arfima and Varfima Models," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 547, The University of Melbourne.
    25. Strohsal, Till & Weber, Enzo, 2011. "Mean-variance cointegration and the expectations hypothesis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-007, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    26. Christian Gouriéroux & Eric Renault & Pascale Valery, 2007. "Diffusion Processes with Polynomial Eigenfunctions," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 85, pages 115-130.
    27. Carl Chiarella & Hing Hung & Thuy-Duong To, 2005. "The Volatility Structure of the Fixed Income Market under the HJM Framework: A Nonlinear Filtering Approach," Research Paper Series 151, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    28. Sandrine Lardic & Valérie Mignon, 2004. "Fractional cointegration and the term structure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 723-736, December.
    29. Teresa Corzo Santamaría & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2004. "Nonparametric Estimation of Convergence of Interest Rates: Effects on Bond Pricing," Faculty Working Papers 03/04, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    30. Seppo Pynnonen & Warren Hogan & Jonathan Batten, 2006. "Modelling credit spreads on yen Eurobonds within an equilibrium correction framework," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 583-606.
    31. Clive Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2006. "High Dimensional Yield Curves: Models and Forecasting," Economics Series Working Papers 2006-FE-11, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    32. Greg Duffee, 2011. "Forecasting with the term structure: The role of no-arbitrage restrictions," Economics Working Paper Archive 576, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    33. Tauchen, George E., 1995. "New Minimum Chi-Square Methods in Empirical Finance," Working Papers 95-42, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    34. Di Matteo, T. & Aste, T. & Mantegna, R.N., 2004. "An interest rates cluster analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 339(1), pages 181-188.
    35. Gregory R. Duffee, 2012. "Forecasting interest rates," Economics Working Paper Archive 599, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    36. Peter Lildholdt & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou & Chris Peacock, 2007. "An affine macro-factor model of the UK yield curve," Bank of England working papers 322, Bank of England.
    37. T. J. Brailsford & K. Maheswaran, 1998. "The Dynamics of the Australian Short†Term Interest Rate," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 23(2), pages 213-234, December.
    38. Tao Zha, 1996. "Identification, vector autoregression, and block recursion," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 96-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    39. Markku Lanne, 2000. "Near unit roots, cointegration, and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 513-529.
    40. Mardi Dungey & Vance L Martin & Adrian R Pagan, 2000. "A multivariate latent factor decomposition of international bond yield spreads," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 697-715.
    41. T. Di Matteo & M. Airoldi & E. Scalas, 2004. "On pricing of interest rate derivatives," Papers cond-mat/0401445, arXiv.org.
    42. Sébastien Morin, 2004. "Ruptures structurelles sur les marchés action et obligataire américains : preuve empirique à partir de la méthode de Saikkönen," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 166(5), pages 87-98.
    43. Sarno, Lucio & Daniel l Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2003. "Federal Funds Rate Prediction," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 183, Royal Economic Society.
    44. A. S. Hurn & K. A. Lindsay & V. L. Martin, 2003. "On the efficacy of simulated maximum likelihood for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential Equations," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 45-63, January.
    45. Petros Dellaportas & David G. T. Denison & Chris Holmes, 2007. "Flexible Threshold Models for Modelling Interest Rate Volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 419-437.
    46. Sugita, Katsuhiro & 杉田, 勝弘, 2006. "Time Series Analysis of the Expectations Hypothesis for the Japanese Term Structure of Interest Rates in the Presence of Multiple Structural Breaks," Discussion Papers 2006-15, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    47. Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2000. "Structural Breaks in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1240, Econometric Society.
    48. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2012. "Evaluating the existence of structural change in the brazilian term structure of interest: evidence based on cointegration models with structural break," Textos para discussão 314, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    49. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
    50. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz C., 2003. "Testing The Expectations Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates In Threshold Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 567-585, September.
    51. Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 1995. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," NBER Working Papers 5346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    52. Farshid Vahid & Lin Luo, 2004. "Forecasting Australian GDP Growth Using Coefficients Constrained by A Term Structure Model," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 232, Econometric Society.

  61. Pagan, A.R. & Robertson, J.C., 1995. "Structural Models of the Liquidity Effect," Papers 283, Australian National University - Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Stan Hurn & Ralf Becker, 2007. "Testing for nonlinearity in mean in the presence of heteroskedasticity. Working paper #8," NCER Working Paper Series 8, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    2. Luis Catão & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "The Credit Channel and Monetary Transmission in Brazil and Chile: A Structured VAR Approach," NCER Working Paper Series 53, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    3. Hjortsø, Ida & Forbes, Kristin & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2018. "The Shocks Matter: Improving our Estimates of Exchange Rate Pass-Through," CEPR Discussion Papers 13037, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the effects of monetary policy: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Don Bredin & Gerard O'Reilly, 2004. "An analysis of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Ireland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 49-58.
    6. Chevillon, Guillaume & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & Zhan, Zhaoguo, 2016. "Robust inference in structural VARs with long-run restrictions," ESSEC Working Papers WP1702, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    7. Lastrapes, William D. & Potts, Todd B., 2006. "Durable goods and the forward-looking theory of consumption: Estimates implied by the dynamic effects of money," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1409-1430, August.
    8. Jinill Kim, 1998. "Monetary policy in a stochastic equilibrium model with real and nominal rigidities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, April.
    10. Kristin Forbes & Ida Hjortsoe & Tsvetelina Nenova, 2020. "International Evidence on Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(4), pages 721-763, December.
    11. Jón Daníelsson & Ryan Love, 2006. "Feedback trading This paper is also available at www.riskresearch.org," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 35-53.
    12. Adrian Pagan & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "On Econometric Analysis of Structural Systems with Permanent and Transitory Shocks and Exogenous Variables," CESifo Working Paper Series 1924, CESifo.
    13. Thornton, Daniel L., 2001. "The Federal Reserve's operating procedure, nonborrowed reserves, borrowed reserves and the liquidity effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1717-1739, September.
    14. Alasdair Scott & George Kapetanios & Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Making a match: combining theory and evidence in policy-oriented macroeconomic modelling," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 462, Society for Computational Economics.
    15. Buncic, Daniel, 2017. "Identification and Estimation issues in Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Working Paper Series 344, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    16. Ni, Shawn & Sun, Dongchu, 2003. "Noninformative priors and frequentist risks of bayesian estimators of vector-autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 159-197, July.
    17. Keuk-Soo Kim & W. Douglas McMillin, 2003. "Estimating the effects of monetary policy shocks: does lag structure matter?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(13), pages 1515-1526.
    18. Cheolbeom Park & Erdenebat Bataa, 2017. "Is the Recent Low Oil Price Attributable to the Shale Revolution?," Discussion Paper Series 1704, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    19. Pagan, A.R. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2008. "Econometric analysis of structural systems with permanent and transitory shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3376-3395, October.
    20. Andrea Brischetto & Graham Voss, 1999. "A Structural Vector Autoregression Model of Monetary Policy in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    21. Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Structural Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8515, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Halabi, Claudia E. & Lastrapes, William D., 2003. "Estimating the liquidity effect in post-reform Chile: do inflationary expectations matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 813-833, November.
    23. W. Douglas McMillin & Keuk-Soo Kim, 2001. "Symmetric versus Asymmetric Lag Structures in Vector Autoregressive Models: A Monte Carlo Analysis with an Application to Estimating the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks," Departmental Working Papers 2001-01, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    24. Esposti, Roberto, 2014. "On why and how agriculture declines," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 73-88.
    25. Shawn Chen-Yu Leu, 2006. "A New Keynesian Perspective of Monetary Policy in Australia," Working Papers 2006.01, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    26. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2010. "Implementation of Monetary Policy: How Do Central Banks Set Interest Rates?," NBER Working Papers 16165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Michael R. Wickens & Roberto Motto, 2001. "Estimating shocks and impulse response functions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 371-387.
    28. W. Douglas McMillin, 2001. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Comparing Contemporaneous versus Long‐Run Identifying Restrictions," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(3), pages 618-636, January.
    29. Hanson, Michael S., 2004. "The "price puzzle" reconsidered," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1385-1413, October.
    30. Mark Dwyer, 1998. "Impulse Response Priors for Discriminating Structural Vector Autoregressions," UCLA Economics Working Papers 780, UCLA Department of Economics.
    31. Antonis Michis, 2011. "Multiscale Analysis of the Liquidity Effect," Working Papers 2011-5, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    32. Antonis Michis, 2015. "Multiscale Analysis of the Liquidity Effect in the UK Economy," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 615-633, April.
    33. Danielsson, Jon & Love, Ryan, 2004. "Feedback trading," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24760, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    34. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    35. W. Douglas McMillin & William D. Lastrapes, 2001. "Cross-Country Variation in the Liquidity Effect," Departmental Working Papers 2001-04, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    36. S. G. B Henry & A. R. Pagan, 2004. "The Econometrics of the New Keynesian Policy Model: Introduction," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 581-607, September.
    37. Sam Ouliaris & Adrian Pagan, 2016. "A Method for Working with Sign Restrictions in Structural Equation Modelling," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 605-622, October.
    38. Miyao, Ryuzo, 2000. "The Role of Monetary Policy in Japan: A Break in the 1990s?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 366-384, December.
    39. William D. Lastrapes & W. Douglas McMillin, 2004. "Cross-Country Variation in the Liquidity Effect: The Role of Financial Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(498), pages 890-915, October.
    40. Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Lauren Slinger & Virginie Masson, 2020. "Revisiting empirical studies on the liquidity effect: An identication-robust approach," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2020-02, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    41. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Robert W. Rich, 1999. "Structural estimates of the U.S. sacrifice ratio," Staff Reports 71, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    42. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    43. Roberto ESPOSTI, 2007. "On the Decline of Agriculture. Evidence from Italian Regions in the Post-WWII Period," Working Papers 300, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    44. Jaebeom Kim & Masao Ogaki & Minseok Yang, 2003. "Structural Error Correction Models: Instrumental Variables Methods and an application to an exchange rate model," RCER Working Papers 502, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    45. Adrian Pagan, 2007. "Weak Instruments: A Guide to the Literature," NCER Working Paper Series 13, National Centre for Econometric Research.

  62. Hylleberg, S. & Pagan, A.R., 1995. "Seasonal Integration and the Evolving Seasonals Model," Papers 281, Australian National University - Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Svend Hylleberg, 2006. "Seasonal Adjustment," Economics Working Papers 2006-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Stefano Grassi & Tommaso Proietti, 2011. "Stochastic trends and seasonality in economic time series: new evidence from Bayesian stochastic model specification search," CREATES Research Papers 2011-30, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Philip Kostov & John Lingard, 2005. "Seasonally specific model analysis of UK cereals prices," Econometrics 0507014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gary Koop & Herman K. van Dijk & Henk Hoek, 1997. "Testing for Integration using Evolving Trend and Seasonals Models: A Bayesian Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-078/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    6. Jan G. De Gooijer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    7. [Reference to Proietti], Tommaso, 2000. "Comparing seasonal components for structural time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 247-260.
    8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Richard M. Todd, 2000. "The Conventional Treatment of Seasonality in Business Cycle Analysis: Does it Create Distortions?," NBER Technical Working Papers 0266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Breitung, Jörg, 1998. "On model based seasonal adjustment procedures," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,12, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    10. Tommaso, Proietti & Stefano, Grassi, 2010. "Bayesian stochastic model specification search for seasonal and calendar effects," MPRA Paper 27305, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  63. Pagan, A.R. & Robertson, J.C., 1994. "Resolving the Liquidity Effect," Papers 277, Australian National University - Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1995. "Some Comments on the Role of Econometrics in Economic Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(433), pages 1609-1621, November.
    2. Charles L. Evans & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1998. "Can VARs describe monetary policy?," Research Paper 9812, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Daniel L. Thornton, 2007. "The daily and policy-relevant liquidity effects," Working Papers 2007-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Oscar Jorda & Selva Demiralp, 2003. "The Pavlovian Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements," Working Papers 192, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    5. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "Monetary policy: why money matters, and interest rates don’t," Working Papers 2012-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Daniel L. Thornton, 2005. "Open market operations and the federal funds rate," Working Papers 2005-063, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Prior parameter uncertainty: Some implications for forecasting and policy analysis with VAR models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    8. Chan Guk Huh, 1995. "Regime switching in the dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and nonborrowed reserves," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Verónica Mies M. & Felipe Morandé L. & Matías Tapia G., 2002. "Monetary Policy and Transmission Mechanisms: New Elements for an old Debate," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(3), pages 29-66, December.
    10. Noritaka Kudoh, 2009. "A global analysis of liquidity effects, interest rate rules, and deflationary traps," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1492-1498.
    11. Patrick Asea & S. Brook Blomberg, 1997. "Lending Cycles," UCLA Economics Working Papers 764, UCLA Department of Economics.
    12. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1996. "Identification and the liquidity effect: a case study," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 20(May), pages 2-13.
    13. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H., 2003. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1403-1424, October.
    14. Gert Peersman, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 3589, CESifo.
    15. Hamilton, James D., 1998. "The supply and demand for Federal Reserve deposits," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 1-44, December.
    16. Thornton, Daniel L., 2001. "The Federal Reserve's operating procedure, nonborrowed reserves, borrowed reserves and the liquidity effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1717-1739, September.
    17. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 1997. "Shrinking money and monetary business cycles," Working Papers 579, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    18. Thornton, Daniel L., 2000. "The relationship between the federal funds rate and the Fed's federal funds rate target: is it open market or open mouth operations?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Robertson, John C., 1998. "Some experiments in constructing a hybrid model for macroeconomic analysis," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 113-142, December.
    20. Keuk-Soo Kim & W. Douglas McMillin, 2003. "Estimating the effects of monetary policy shocks: does lag structure matter?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(13), pages 1515-1526.
    21. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 1997. "Impulse response analysis in infinite order cointegrated vector autoregressive processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 127-157, November.
    22. Hafedh Bouakez & Michel Normandin, 2008. "Fluctuations in the Foreign Exchange Market: How Important are Monetary Policy Shocks?," Cahiers de recherche 0818, CIRPEE.
    23. Carpenter, Seth & Demiralp, Selva, 2006. "The Liquidity Effect in the Federal Funds Market: Evidence from Daily Open Market Operations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 901-920, June.
    24. Michel Normandin & Louis Phaneuf, 1996. "The Liquidity Effect: Testing Identification Conditions Under Time-Varying Conditional Volatility," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 40, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    25. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    26. Chan Guk Huh & Kevin J. Lansing, 1997. "Expectations, credibility, and disinflation in a small macroeconomic model," Working Papers (Old Series) 9713, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    27. Cooley, Thomas F. & Dwyer, Mark, 1998. "Business cycle analysis without much theory A look at structural VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 57-88.
    28. J. Weymark & H. König & J. Backhaus & B. Hayo & A. Gabriele, 2001. "Book reviews," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 73(3), pages 348-368, October.
    29. Michael J. Dueker & Apostolos Serletis, 1996. "The sensitivity of empirical studies to alternative measures of the monetary base and reserves," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 51-69.
    30. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "The Liquidity Effect and Long-Run Neutrality," NBER Working Papers 6608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Daniel L. Thornton, 1996. "The information content of discount rate announcements: what's behind the announcement effect?," Working Papers 1994-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    32. G. Peersman, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policies," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 14/875, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    33. Michel Normandin & Louis Phaneuf, 2003. "Monetary Policy Shocks: Testing Identification Conditions Under Time-Varying Conditional Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 03-04, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
    34. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2010. "Implementation of Monetary Policy: How Do Central Banks Set Interest Rates?," NBER Working Papers 16165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Verónica Mies & Felipe Morandé & Matías Tapia, 2002. "Política Monetaria y Mecanismos de Transmisión: Nuevos Elementos para una Vieja Discusión," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 181, Central Bank of Chile.
    36. Daniel L. Thornton, 1996. "Identifying the liquidity effect: the case of nonborrowed reserves," Working Papers 1996-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    37. Ariff, Mohamed & Chung, Tin-fah & M., Shamsher, 2012. "Money supply, interest rate, liquidity and share prices: A test of their linkage," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 202-220.
    38. Mark Dwyer, 1998. "Impulse Response Priors for Discriminating Structural Vector Autoregressions," UCLA Economics Working Papers 780, UCLA Department of Economics.
    39. Chung, Tin-fah & Ariff, M., 2016. "A test of the linkage among money supply, liquidity and share prices in Asia," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 48-61.
    40. Tao Zha, 1996. "Identification, vector autoregression, and block recursion," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 96-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    41. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
    42. Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "Likelihood preserving normalization in multiple equation models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 329-347, June.
    43. Bouakez, Hafedh & Essid, Badye & Normandin, Michel, 2013. "Stock returns and monetary policy: Are there any ties?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 33-50.
    44. Shen, Chung-Hua & Chiang, Thomas Chi-Nan, 1999. "Retrieving the vanishing liquidity effect--a threshold vector autoregressive model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 259-277, May.
    45. W. Douglas McMillin & William D. Lastrapes, 2001. "Cross-Country Variation in the Liquidity Effect," Departmental Working Papers 2001-04, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    46. Vilasuso, Jon, 1999. "The Liquidity Effect and the Operating Procedure of the Federal Reserve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 443-461, July.
    47. Benjamin Kim & Noor Ghazali, 1998. "The Liquidity Effect of Money Shocks on Short-Term Interest Rates: Some International Evidence," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 49-63.
    48. Sumner, Scott & Gulley, O. David & Newman, Ross, 1998. "Money Demand and Nominal Debt: An Equilibrium Model of the Liquidity Effect," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 267-293, April.
    49. William D. Lastrapes & W. Douglas McMillin, 2004. "Cross-Country Variation in the Liquidity Effect: The Role of Financial Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(498), pages 890-915, October.
    50. Michel Normandin, 2006. "The Effects of Monetary-Policy Shocks on Real Wages: A Multi-Country Investigation The Effects of Monetary-Policy Shocks on Real Wages: A Multi-Country Investigationv," Cahiers de recherche 06-04, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
    51. Chan Guk Huh, 1996. "Regime switching in the dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and innovations in nonborrowed reserves," International Finance Discussion Papers 536, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  64. Pagan, A.R. & Pak, Y., 1991. "Testing for Heteroskedasticity," RCER Working Papers 315, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).

    Cited by:

    1. Godfrey, Leslie G., 1996. "Some results on the Glejser and Koenker tests for heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 275-299.

  65. Gregogy, A.W. & Pagan, A.R. & Smith, G.W., 1990. "Estimating Linear Quadratic Models With Integrated Processes," RCER Working Papers 247, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).

    Cited by:

    1. Rodrigo Pereira, 2015. "Investment and Uncertainty in a Quadratic Adjustment Cost Model: Evidence from Brazil," Discussion Papers 0085, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    2. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2005. "Identifying the New Keynesian Phillips curve," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2005-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Robert A. Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, 1994. "A Further Analysis of Exchange Rate Targeting in Canada," Econometrics 9406001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Jun 1994.
    4. Ida Wolden Bache & Bjørn E. Naug, 2008. "Estimating New Keynesian import price models," Working Paper 2007/15, Norges Bank.
    5. Fanelli, Luca, 2006. "Multi-equational linear quadratic adjustment cost models with rational expectations and cointegration," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 445-456, March.
    6. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2012. "Purchasing Power Parity between the UK and the Euro Area," Working papers 2012-46, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    7. Robert Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, "undated". "The Dynamic Behaviour of Canadian Imports and the Linear-Quadratic Model: Evidence Based on the Euler Equation," Staff Working Papers 94-6, Bank of Canada.
    8. Robert A. Amano, 1995. "Empirical Evidence on the Cost of Adjustment and Dynamic Labour Demand," Macroeconomics 9505001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Sengupta, Jati K. & Okamura, Kumiko, 1996. "Learning by doing and openness in Japanese growth: A new approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 43-64, March.
    10. Fanelli, Luca, 2002. "A new approach for estimating and testing the linear quadratic adjustment cost model under rational expectations and I(1) variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 117-139, January.
    11. David Aristei & Luca Pieroni, 2007. "Habits, Complementarities and Heterogenenity in Alcohol and Tobacco Demand: A Multivariate Dynamic Model," Working Papers 38/2007, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    12. Scott Schuh, "undated". "Evidence on the Link between Firm-Level and Aggregate Inventory Behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 10 Dec 2019.
    13. Sengupta, Jati K. & Sfeir, Raymond, 1997. "Past trend versus future expectation: test of exchange rate volatility," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt9mx2c7jv, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    14. Amano, Robert A. & Wirjanto, Tony S., 1997. "Adjustment costs and import demand behavior: evidence from Canada and the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 461-476, June.
    15. Kenneth D. West, 1993. "Inventory Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Gregory, Allan W. & Nason, James M. & Watt, David G., 1996. "Testing for structural breaks in cointegrated relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 321-341.
    17. Engsted, Tom & Haldrup, Niels, 1997. "Money demand, adjustment costs, and forward-looking behavior," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 153-173, April.
    18. Sengupta, Jati K., 1997. "Recent Models in Dynamic Economics: Problems of Estimating Terminal Conditions," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt05g0d8gm, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    19. Pereira, Rodrigo Mendes, 2011. "Current Account Dynamics with Rule of Thumb Consumers," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 65(2), June.
    20. Jaebeom Kim & Masao Ogaki & Minseok Yang, 2003. "Structural Error Correction Models: Instrumental Variables Methods and an application to an exchange rate model," RCER Working Papers 502, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    21. Sengupta, Jati K., 2003. "Stochastic Growth In Schumpeterian Dynamics," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt6v13p7kx, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    22. Adrian Pagan, 2007. "Weak Instruments: A Guide to the Literature," NCER Working Paper Series 13, National Centre for Econometric Research.

  66. Pagan, A.R. & Kearns, P., 1990. "Ustralian Stock Market Volatility: 1875-1987," RCER Working Papers 248, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).

    Cited by:

    1. Coppejans, Mark & Domowitz, Ian, 1997. "Noise In the Price Discovery Process: A Comparison of Periodicand Continuous Auctions," Working Papers 97-04, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    2. Rajabrata Banerjee & Tony Cavoli & Ron McIver & Shannon Meng & John K. Wilson, 2023. "Predicting long‐run risk factors of stock returns: Evidence from Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 377-395, September.

  67. Pagan, A.R. & Schwert, G.W., 1989. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," Papers 89-02, Rochester, Business - General.

    Cited by:

    1. Camilo Serrano & Martin Hoesli, 2010. "Are Securitized Real Estate Returns more Predictable than Stock Returns?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 170-192, August.
    2. Altunbas, Yener & Binici, Mahir & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2018. "Macroprudential policy and bank risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 203-220.
    3. Umar, Muhammad & Mirza, Nawazish & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Furqan, Mehreen, 2023. "Asymmetric volatility structure of equity returns: Evidence from an emerging market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 330-336.
    4. Kenneth D. West & Dongchul Cho, 1994. "The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," NBER Technical Working Papers 0152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Xiangjun Chen & Bo Yan, 2024. "Research on jumps and volatility in China’s carbon market," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 1-43, February.
    6. Kola Akinsomi & Mehmet Balcilar & Rıza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Effect of Gold Market Speculation on REIT Returns in South Africa: A Behavioral Perspective," Working Papers 201643, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Holt, Matthew T. & Moschini, Giancarlo, 1992. "Alternative Measures of Risk in Commodity Supply Models: An Analysis of Sow Farrowing Decisions in the United States," ISU General Staff Papers 199207010700001160, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1995. "Emerging Equity Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 5307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Pierdzioch, Christian, 2000. "Noise Traders? Trigger Rates, FX Options, and Smiles," Kiel Working Papers 970, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Klaassen, F.J.G.M., 1998. "Improving Garch Volatility Forecasts," Discussion Paper 1998-52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. Jinliang Li & Chihwa Kao & Wei David Zhang, 2010. "Bounded influence estimator for GARCH models: evidence from foreign exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(11), pages 1437-1445.
    12. Carlos Fernández, 2001. "Further Evidence on Friedman's Hypothesis," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 38(115), pages 257-273.
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  69. Pagan, A. & Hong, Y., 1988. "Some Simulation Studies Of Non-Parametric Estimators," RCER Working Papers 137, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).

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    1. Holt, Matthew T. & Moschini, Giancarlo, 1992. "Alternative Measures of Risk in Commodity Supply Models: An Analysis of Sow Farrowing Decisions in the United States," ISU General Staff Papers 199207010700001160, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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    6. Javier Rojo-Suárez & Ana Belén Alonso-Conde, 2020. "Impact of consumer confidence on the expected returns of the Tokyo Stock Exchange: A comparative analysis of consumption and production-based asset pricing models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-31, November.
    7. Nijman, T.E. & Steel, M.F.J., 1988. "Exclusion restrictions in instrumental variables equations," Other publications TiSEM 16c4ea87-a70c-46c6-aa6b-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond, 2019. "Hedge fund return higher moments over the business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 73-97.
    9. José Leibovich & Thierry Magnac, 1996. "Demanda de educación en las zonas rurales colombianas," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, June.
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    11. Alan J. Rogers, 2013. "Concentration Ellipsoids, Their Planes of Support, and the Linear Regression Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 220-243, February.
    12. Bernardo Maggi & Marco Guida, 2011. "Modelling non-performing loans probability in the commercial banking system: efficiency and effectiveness related to credit risk in Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 269-291, October.
    13. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 2008. "The Volatility of International Trade Flows and Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 695, Boston College Department of Economics.
    14. Kandil, Magda, 1998. "Supply-Side Asymmetry and the Non-Neutrality of Demand Fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 785-809, October.
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    17. KAFANDO, Namalguebzanga, 2014. "L'industrialisation de l'Afrique: l'importance des facteurs structurels et du régime de change [The industrialization of Africa: the importance of structural factors and exchange rate regime]," MPRA Paper 68736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan & Christopher F Baum, 2002. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Bank Lending Behavior," Working Papers 2002_02, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    19. Diaa Noureldin & Neil Shephard & Kevin Sheppard, 2012. "Multivariate Rotated ARCH Models," Economics Papers 2012-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    20. Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond, 2018. "Multi-moment risk, hedging strategies, & the business cycle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 637-675.
    21. Magda Kandil, 2019. "Variation in nominal and real effective exchange rates: evidence across developed and developing countries," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(2), pages 181-219, June.
    22. Andreou, E. & Werker, B.J.M., 2004. "An Alternative Asymptotic Analysis of Residual-Based Statistics," Discussion Paper 2004-56, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    23. Landon, Stuart, 1995. "Testing aggregate neutrality with heterogeneous sectors," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 131-148.
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    2263. Christian Deutscher & Oliver Gürtler & Joachim Prinz & Daniel Weimar, 2017. "The Payoff To Consistency In Performance," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(2), pages 1091-1103, April.
    2264. Usman, Muhammad & Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Jahanger, Atif & Ahmad, Paiman, 2022. "Pollution concern during globalization mode in financially resource-rich countries: Do financial development, natural resources, and renewable energy consumption matter?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 90-102.
    2265. Melgarejo Duran, Mauricio & Stephen, Sheryl-Ann, 2020. "Internationalization and the capital structure of firms in emerging markets: Evidence from Latin America before and after the financial crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
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    2267. Ahmad, Ahmad Hassan & Pentecost, Eric J. & Stack, Marie M., 2023. "Foreign aid, debt interest repayments and Dutch disease effects in a real exchange rate model for African countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
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    2270. Nicoleta Mihaela Florea & Roxana Maria Bădîrcea & Georgeta-Madalina Meghisan-Toma & Silvia Puiu & Alina Georgiana Manta & Dorel Berceanu, 2021. "Linking Public Finances’ Performance to Renewable-Energy Consumption in Emerging Economies of the European Union," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-14, June.
    2271. Tsay, Wen-Jen, 2004. "Testing for contemporaneous correlation of disturbances in seemingly unrelated regressions with serial dependence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 69-76, April.
    2272. Mehmed Ganic, 2022. "Does Institutional Quality Matter for the IDP Hypothesis? Evidence from Emerging Europe," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 24(1), pages 83-113, June.
    2273. Lee, Hyunchul & Kim, Heeho, 2020. "Time varying integration of European stock markets and monetary drivers," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 369-385.
    2274. Hussain, Jamal & Khan, Anwar & Zhou, Kui, 2020. "The impact of natural resource depletion on energy use and CO2 emission in Belt & Road Initiative countries: A cross-country analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    2275. Nebiye Yamak & Sinem Kocak & Fatma Kolcu, 2016. "Causal Relationship Between Relative Price Variability and Inflation in Turkey:Evidence from Panel Data," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 183-198, June.
    2276. Li, Jiaman & Dong, Kangyin & Dong, Xiucheng & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2022. "How green trade influences pollution emissions in China: A provincial perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
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    2278. Chung, Changwoo & Kim, Jinsoo, 2024. "Greenflation, a myth or fact? Empirical evidence from 26 OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2279. Gong, Binlei, 2020. "Multi-dimensional interactions in the oilfield market: A jackknife model averaging approach of spatial productivity analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
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    2283. Hakan Öztunç & Mehmet Orhan, 2021. "Gold Demand by Central Banks: A Comparative Study of Emerging Market and Advanced Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(9), pages 2687-2698, July.
    2284. Nasser Al-Mawali, 2005. "Bilateral intra-industry trade flows and intellectual property rights protection: first empirical evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(13), pages 823-828.
    2285. Eman Elish, 2022. "Political and productive capacity characteristics as outward foreign direct investment push factors from BRICS countries," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2286. Marselli, Riccardo & Vannini, Marco, 1997. "Estimating a crime equation in the presence of organized crime: Evidence from Italy," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 89-113, March.
    2287. Stéphane Mbiankeu Nguea & Hervé Kaffo Fotio & Louise Angèle Baida, 2022. "Investigating the effects of globalization on economic sophistication in selected African countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(3), pages 324-338, September.
    2288. Manuchehr Irandoust, 2024. "Does FDI encourage female labor force participation? Evidence from Arab countries," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 174-189, July.
    2289. Jin, Hyun Joung & Cho, Guedae & Koo, Won W., 2004. "Third-Country Effects on the Market Shares of U.S. Wheat in Asian Countries," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 1-17, December.
    2290. Dou, Yue & Zhao, Jun & Dong, Xiucheng & Dong, Kangyin, 2021. "Quantifying the impacts of energy inequality on carbon emissions in China: A household-level analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    2291. Kaodui Li & Easmond Baah Nketia & Yusheng Kong & Michael Appiah, 2023. "An Introspective Analysis of Inclusive Growth in Africa, With an Eminence on the Influence of Governance and Financial Development Interaction," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, April.
    2292. Fotopoulos, Georgios & Spence, Nigel, 1999. "Net entry behaviour in Greek manufacturing: consumer, intermediate and capital goods industries," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 17(8), pages 1219-1230, November.
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    2294. Honoré Tekam Oumbé & Ronald Djeunankan & Alain Mekia Ndzana, 2023. "Does information and communication technologies affect economic complexity?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 1-25, April.
    2295. Tough Chinoda & Josphat Nyoni & Maxwell Chufama & Andrew Jeremiah & Martin Dandira, 2021. "The Nexus between Financial Innovation, Financial Inclusion, and Economic growth in Africa: A PMG Approach," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 5(10), pages 544-550, October.
    2296. Barakatou Atte-Oudeyi & Bruno Kestemont & Jean Luc De Meulemeester, 2016. "Road Transport, Economic Growth and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the BRIICS: Conditions For a Low Carbon Economic Development," Working Papers CEB 16-023, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2297. Tereza Hyánková, 2015. "Od Alžírského Osvobozeneckého Hnutí K Myšlence Kabylské Nezávislosti (From The Algerian Liberation Movement To The Idea Of Kabyle Independence)," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 13(4), pages 333-346.
    2298. Tan, Yan & Uprasen, Utai, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on income inequality in ASEAN countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
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    2301. Krishna Dayal Pandey & Tarak Nath Sahu, 2017. "An Empirical Analysis on Capital Structure, Ownership Structure and Firm Performance: Evidence from India," Indian Journal of Commerce and Management Studies, Educational Research Multimedia & Publications,India, vol. 8(2), pages 63-72, May.
    2302. Odam, Neil & de Vries, Frans P., 2020. "Innovation modelling and multi-factor learning in wind energy technology," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
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Articles

  1. Sam Ouliaris & Adrian Pagan, 2022. "Three Basic Issues that Arise when Using Informational Restrictions in SVARs," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 1-20, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Benk, Szilard & Gillman, Max, 2023. "Identifying money and inflation expectation shocks to real oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung, 2023. "Systematic monetary policy in a SVAR for Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).

  2. Pagan, Adrian & Robinson, Tim, 2022. "Excess shocks can limit the economic interpretation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

    Cited by:

    1. Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2024. "Time-varying investment dynamics in the USA," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2024_01, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    2. Buncic, Daniel, 2024. "Econometric issues in the estimation of the natural rate of interest," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    3. Qazi Haque & Oscar Pavlov & Mark Weder, 2024. "Superstar Firms and Aggregate Fluctuations," CAMA Working Papers 2024-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Ye Lu & Adrian Pagan, 2023. "To Boost or Not to Boost? That is the Question," Working Papers 2023-05, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    5. Joshua Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Large Bayesian VARs with Factor Stochastic Volatility: Identification, Order Invariance and Structural Analysis," Papers 2207.03988, arXiv.org.

  3. Mariano Kulish & Adrian Pagan, 2021. "Turning point and oscillatory cycles: Concepts, measurement, and use," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 977-1006, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2021. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 415, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    2. Han Gao & Mariano Kulish & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2022. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money Reloaded," Working Papers 162, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    3. Hall, Viv B & Thomson, Peter, 2022. "A boosted HP filter for business cycle analysis: evidence from New Zealand’s small open economy," Working Paper Series 21184, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.

  4. Xianglong Liu & Adrian R. Pagan & Tim Robinson, 2018. "Critically Assessing Estimated DSGE Models: A Case Study of a Multi‐sector Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(307), pages 349-371, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Mariano Kulish & Adrian Pagan, 2017. "Estimation and Solution of Models with Expectations and Structural Changes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 255-274, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Lance A. Fisher & Hyeon‐Seung Huh & Adrian R. Pagan, 2016. "Econometric Methods for Modelling Systems With a Mixture of i(1) and i(0) Variables," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(5), pages 892-911, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Sam Ouliaris & Adrian Pagan, 2016. "A Method for Working with Sign Restrictions in Structural Equation Modelling," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 605-622, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Lance A. Fisher & Hyeon-seung Huh, 2022. "Systematic Monetary Policy in a SVAR for Australia," Working papers 2022rwp-194, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    2. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung, 2019. "An IV framework for combining sign and long-run parametric restrictions in SVARs," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Sam Ouliaris & Adrian Pagan, 2022. "Three Basic Issues that Arise when Using Informational Restrictions in SVARs," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 1-20, February.
    4. Dimitris Korobilis, 2020. "Sign restrictions in high-dimensional vector autoregressions," Working Paper series 20-09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    5. Dimitris Korobilis, 2022. "A new algorithm for structural restrictions in Bayesian vector autoregressions," Papers 2206.06892, arXiv.org.
    6. Bojaj, Martin M. & Muhadinovic, Milica & Bracanovic, Andrej & Mihailovic, Andrej & Radulovic, Mladen & Jolicic, Ivan & Milosevic, Igor & Milacic, Veselin, 2022. "Forecasting macroeconomic effects of stablecoin adoption: A Bayesian approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    7. X. Liu & A.R. Pagan & T. Robinson, 2018. "Critically assessing estimated DSGE models: A case study of a multi-sector model," CAMA Working Papers 2018-04, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Bünyamin Fuat Yıldız & Korhan K. Gökmenoğlu & Wing-Keung Wong, 2022. "Analysing Monetary Policy Shocks by Sign and Parametric Restrictions: The Evidence from Russia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, September.
    9. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung, 2016. "Monetary policy and exchange rates: Further evidence using a new method for implementing sign restrictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 177-191.
    10. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung, 2023. "Systematic monetary policy in a SVAR for Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    11. Tommy Wu & Michael Cheng & Ken Wong, 2017. "Bayesian analysis of Hong Kong's housing price dynamics," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 312-331, August.

  8. Mariano Kulish & Adrian Pagan, 2016. "Issues in Estimating New Keynesian Phillips Curves in the Presence of Unknown Structural Change," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 1251-1270, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Adrian Pagan & Benno Torgler, 2015. "Use '4Rs' criteria to assess papers," Nature, Nature, vol. 522(7554), pages 34-34, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Benno Torgler, 2021. "Behavioral Taxation: Opportunities and Challenges," CREMA Working Paper Series 2021-25, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).

  10. Pagan, Adrian & Robinson, Tim, 2014. "Methods for assessing the impact of financial effects on business cycles in macroeconometric models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 94-106.

    Cited by:

    1. Inekwe, John Nkwoma, 2021. "Finance and European regional economy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    2. Fatma Erdem & Erdal Özmen, 2015. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 1041-1058, November.
    3. Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Tim Robinson, 2014. "Estimating the Expected Duration of the Zero Lower Bound in DSGE Models with Forward Guidance," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2014n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    4. Inekwe, John Nkwoma & Jin, Yi & Valenzuela, Ma. Rebecca, 2018. "The effects of financial distress: Evidence from US GDP growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 8-21.
    5. John Nkwoma Inekwe, 2022. "Economic performance in Africa: The role of fragile financial system," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(6), pages 1910-1936, June.
    6. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2016. "Losing Track of the Asset Markets: the Case of Housing and Stock," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 19(4), pages 435-492.
    7. Wickens, Michael R. & Pagan, Adrian, 2019. "Checking if the Straitjacket Fits," CEPR Discussion Papers 14140, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. X. Liu & A.R. Pagan & T. Robinson, 2018. "Critically assessing estimated DSGE models: A case study of a multi-sector model," CAMA Working Papers 2018-04, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. James Morley, 2018. "The Econometric Analysis of Recurrent Events in Macroeconomics and Finance," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(306), pages 338-340, September.
    10. Maria Dolores Gadea Rivas & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2015. "The Failure To Predict The Great Recession—A View Through The Role Of Credit," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 534-559, June.

  11. Maccini, Louis J. & Pagan, Adrian, 2013. "Inventories, Fluctuations, And Goods Sector Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 89-122, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Sedjro Aaron Alovokpinhou & Christopher Malikane & Tshepo Mokoka, 2022. "Inventory dynamics and endogenous persistence in a new Keynesian model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(17), pages 1957-1973, April.
    2. Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Patterns and Their Uses," NCER Working Paper Series 96, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    3. Yulei Luo & Jun Nie & Xiaowen Wang & Eric Young, 2021. "Production and Inventory Dynamics under Ambiguity Aversion," Research Working Paper RWP 21-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    4. Chikán, Attila & Kovács, Erzsébet & Matyusz, Zsolt & Sass, Magdolna & Vakhal, Péter, 2016. "Long-term trends in inventory investment in traditional market and post-socialist economies," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(PA), pages 14-23.

  12. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2011. "An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 86-95.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  13. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Christensen Timothy & Hurn Stan & Pagan Adrian, 2011. "Detecting Common Dynamics in Transitory Components," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-28, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  15. Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Limited information estimation and evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 55-70.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  16. Mardi Dungey & Adrian Pagan, 2009. "Extending a SVAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(268), pages 1-20, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Pagan, A.R. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2008. "Econometric analysis of structural systems with permanent and transitory shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3376-3395, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  18. Adrian Pagan, 2007. "Weak instruments (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 2, pages 71-81, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Ibragimov Marat & Jovlon Karimov & Elena Permyakova, 2013. "Unemployment and output dynamics in CIS countries: Okun's law revisited," EERC Working Paper Series 13/04e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.

  19. Martin Fukac & Adrian R. Pagan, 2007. "Commentary on \\"An estimated DSGE model for the United Kingdom\\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 233-240.

    Cited by:

    1. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    2. Martin Fukac & Adrian R. Pagan, 2010. "Structural macro-econometric modelling in a policy environment," Research Working Paper RWP 10-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

  20. Kapetanios, G. & Pagan, A. & Scott, A., 2007. "Making a match: Combining theory and evidence in policy-oriented macroeconomic modeling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 565-594, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  22. Engel, J. & Haugh, D. & Pagan, A., 2005. "Some methods for assessing the need for non-linear models in business cycle analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 651-662.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2005. "A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 151-159.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  24. Jonathan Ohn & Larry W. Taylor & Adrian Pagan, 2004. "Testing for duration dependence in economic cycles," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 528-549, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
    2. Rose Cunningham & Ilan Kolet, 2007. "Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada," Staff Working Papers 07-2, Bank of Canada.
    3. Çakmaklı, Cem & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013. "Measuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2195-2216.
    4. Vítor Castro, 2010. "The duration of business cycle expansions and contractions: Are there change-points in duration dependence?," NIPE Working Papers 24/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    5. Vitor Castro, 2015. "The Portuguese business cycle: chronology and duration dependence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 325-342, August.
    6. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2006. "The New Zealand Business Cycle: Return To Golden Days?," CAMA Working Papers 2006-21, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2019. "A competing risks tale on successful and unsuccessful fiscal consolidations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    8. Bracke, Philippe, 2013. "How long do housing cycles last? A duration analysis for 19 OECD countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 213-230.
    9. Mr. Marco Terrones & Mr. Ayhan Kose & Mr. Stijn Claessens, 2011. "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," IMF Working Papers 2011/076, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Gabe de Bondt & Philip Vermeulen, 2021. "Business cycle duration dependence and foreign recessions," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 1-19, February.
    11. Castro, Vítor, 2010. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 347-365, March.
    12. Adrian pagan & Don Harding, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series. Working paper #1," NCER Working Paper Series 1, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    13. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2012. "An analysis of duration dependence of government revenue expansions and contractions in Developing Countries," Working Papers halshs-00722083, HAL.
    14. Richard G. Anderson & Marcelle Chauvet & Barry Jones, 2015. "Nonlinear Relationship Between Permanent and Transitory Components of Monetary Aggregates and the Economy," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1-2), pages 228-254, February.
    15. Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Some Econometric Analysis Of Constructed Binary Time Series," CAMA Working Papers 2005-07, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Gert Elaut & Michael Frömmel & Alexander Mende, 2017. "Duration Dependence, Behavioral Restrictions, and the Market Timing Ability of Commodity Trading Advisors," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 427-450, September.
    17. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, October –.
    18. Akdi, Yilmaz & Varlik, Serdar & Berument, M. Hakan, 2020. "Duration of Global Financial Cycles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).
    19. Larry W. Taylor, 2007. "Nonparametric Estimation of Duration Dependence in Militarized Interstate Disputes," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 423-441.
    20. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 963, The University of Melbourne.
    21. Valeriy Zakamulin & Javier Giner, 2024. "Optimal trend-following rules in two-state regime-switching models," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(4), pages 327-348, July.
    22. Maryam Akbari Nasiri, 2020. "How Long Do Housing Cycles Last? A Duration Analysis For Emerging Economies," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 23(2), pages 179-200, July.
    23. Valeriy Zakamulin, 2023. "Not all bull and bear markets are alike: insights from a five-state hidden semi-Markov model," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-25, March.
    24. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Gabriel Zsurkis, 2020. "The expected time to cross a threshold and its determinants: A simple and flexible framework," Working Papers w202006, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    25. Giner, Javier & Zakamulin, Valeriy, 2023. "A regime-switching model of stock returns with momentum and mean reversion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    26. Nicholas Di Venuto & Allan Layton, 2005. "Do The Phases Of The Business Cycle Die Of Old Age?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 290-305, September.
    27. Oglend, Atle & Selland Kleppe, Tore, 2016. "How regular are directional movements in commodity and asset prices? A Wald test," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 290-306.
    28. Luca Agnello & Vitor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2015. "Booms, Busts, and Normal Times in the Housing Market," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 25-45, January.
    29. Yýlmaz Akdi & Serdar Varlik & Hakan Berument, 2018. "Cycle Duration in Production with Periodicity – Evidence from Turkey," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 10(2), pages 24-32, September.
    30. Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Zimu Li & Haiqiang Chen & Melvin Hinich, 2010. "An investigation of duration dependence in the American stock market cycle," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 1407-1416.

  25. Breunig, Robert V & Pagan, Adrian R, 2004. "Do Markov-switching models capture nonlinearities in the data?," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 401-407.

    Cited by:

    1. Fukuda, Kosei, 2009. "Distribution switching in financial time series," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(5), pages 1711-1720.
    2. Huseyin Tastan & Nuri Yildirim, 2008. "Business cycle asymmetries in Turkey: an application of Markov-switching autoregressions," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 315-333.
    3. Marian Vavra, 2016. "Testing the Validity of Assumptions of UC-ARIMA Models for Trend-Cycle Decompositions," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2016, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.

  26. S. G. B Henry & A. R. Pagan, 2004. "The Econometrics of the New Keynesian Policy Model: Introduction," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 581-607, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2007. "The Rise and Fall of U.S. Inflation Persistence," Working Paper Series 2007:18, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    2. Russell, Bill & Banerjee, Anindya, 2008. "The long-run Phillips curve and non-stationary inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1792-1815, December.
    3. Michael Funke, 2005. "Inflation in Mainland China - Modelling a Roller Coaster Ride," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20507, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    4. Maurizio Bovi & Peter Claeys, 2008. "Treasury V Dodgers. A Tale of Fiscal Consolidation and Tax Evasion," ISAE Working Papers 93 Classification-JEL E62, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    5. Angelini, Giovanni, 2020. "Bootstrap lag selection in DSGE models with expectations correction," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 38-48.
    6. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    7. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2020. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," Papers 2006.14110, arXiv.org.
    8. Bill Russell & Anindya Banerjee & Issam Malki & Natalia Ponomareva, 2011. "A Multiple Break Panel Approach To Estimating United States Phillips Curves," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 252, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    9. Boug, Pål & Cappelen, Adne & Swensen, Anders Rygh, 2010. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 858-874, May.
    10. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2010. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve of Rational Expectations: A Serial Correlation Extension," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 159-179, May.
    11. Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2009. "Time-varying inflation persistence in the Euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 532-535, March.
    12. Stracca, Livio, 2006. "A speed limit monetary policy rule for the euro area," Working Paper Series 600, European Central Bank.
    13. Glenn D. Otto & Graham M. Voss, 2014. "Flexible inflation forecast targeting: Evidence from Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(2), pages 398-421, May.
    14. Luca Fanelli, 2008. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Through Vector Autoregressive Models: Results from the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(1), pages 53-66, February.
    15. Joerg Scheibe & David Vines, 2005. "A Phillips Curve For China," CAMA Working Papers 2005-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Paul Turner, 2007. "Some UK evidence on the Forward Looking IS Equation:," Discussion Paper Series 2007_16, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised May 2007.
    17. Russell, Bill, 2011. "Non-stationary inflation and panel estimates of United States short and long-run Phillips curves," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 406-419, September.
    18. P Arestis & A Mihailov, 2009. "Flexible Rules cum Constrained Discretion: A New Consensus in Monetary Policy," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 14(2), pages 27-54, September.
    19. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss, 2009. "Strict and Flexible Inflation Forecast Targets: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 202009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    20. Baffigi, Alberto & Bontempi, Maria Elena & Felice, Emanuele & Golinelli, Roberto, 2015. "The changing relationship between inflation and the economic cycle in Italy: 1861–2012," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 53-70.
    21. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve : lessons from single-equation econometric estimation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 94(Fall), pages 361-395.
    22. Juselius, Mikael, 2008. "Testing the New Keynesian Model on U.S. and Euro Area Data," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-23, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    23. Bovi, Maurizio, 2013. "Are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 633-648.
    24. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: In Search of Improvements and Adaptation to the Open Economy," Economics wp31_tjorvi, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.

  27. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "Rejoinder to James Hamilton," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1695-1698, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Edwards & Javier Gomez Biscarri & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2003. "Stock Market Cycles, Financial Liberalization and Volatility," NBER Working Papers 9817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Erik Kole & Dick Dijk, 2017. "How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 120-139, January.
    3. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Dating Business Cycles: A Methodological Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(4), pages 537-565, September.
    4. Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
    5. Yizhan Shu & Chenyu Yu & John M. Mulvey, 2024. "Downside risk reduction using regime-switching signals: a statistical jump model approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(5), pages 493-507, September.
    6. Javier De Peña & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2002. "Do Spanish Stock Market Prices Follow a Random Walk?," Faculty Working Papers 01/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    7. Nissilä, Wilma, 2020. "Probit based time series models in recession forecasting – A survey with an empirical illustration for Finland," BoF Economics Review 7/2020, Bank of Finland.
    8. Eduardo Bandrés & María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos, 2017. "Regional business cycles across europe," Occasional Papers 1702, Banco de España.
    9. Calderón, César & Fuentes, J. Rodrigo, 2014. "Have business cycles changed over the last two decades? An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 98-123.
    10. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2006. "The New Zealand Business Cycle: Return To Golden Days?," CAMA Working Papers 2006-21, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Stan Du Plessis, 2006. "Reconsidering the business cycle and stabilisation policies in South Africa," Working Papers 010, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    12. Francis W. Ahking, 2013. "Measuring U.S. Business Cycles: A Comparison of Two Methods and Two Indicators of Economic Activities," Working papers 2013-10, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    13. Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2002. "Dating Recessions from Industrial Production Indexes: An Analysis for Europe and the US," Faculty Working Papers 05/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    14. Quintero Otero, Jorge David & Padilla Sierra, Alcides de Jesús, 2024. "Impacto de la sincronización sub-nacional sobre el comportamiento de los ciclos nacionales en economías emergentes con inflación objetivo," Documentos Departamento de Economía 54, Universidad del Norte.
    15. Eva F. Janssens & Robin L. Lumsdaine & Sebastiaan H.L.C.G. Vermeulen, 2022. "An Epidemiological Model of Economic Crisis Spread across Sectors in the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 885-919, June.
    16. Beate Schirwitz, 2009. "A comprehensive German business cycle chronology," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 287-301, October.
    17. Taylor, Andrew & Shepherd, David & Duncan, Stephen, 2005. "The structure of the Australian growth process: A Bayesian model selection view of Markov switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 628-645, July.
    18. Titelman Kardonsky, Daniel & Carvallo, Pablo & Pérez Caldentey, Esteban, 2013. "Weak expansions: a distinctive feature of the business cycle in Latin America and the Caribbean," Financiamiento para el Desarrollo 5224, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    19. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2004. "Euro area and US recessions: 1970-2003," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6405, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    20. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
    21. Fabrice Hervé, 2006. "Les fonds de pension protègent-ils les investisseurs des évolutions du marché?," Working Papers CREGO 1060101, Université de Bourgogne - CREGO EA7317 Centre de recherches en gestion des organisations.
    22. Francis W. Ahking, 2015. "Measuring U.S. Business Cycles: A Comparison of Two Methods and Two Indicators of Economic Activities (With Appendix A)," Working papers 2015-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    23. Stan du Plessis, 2006. "Business Cycles in Emerging market Economies: A New View of the Stylised Facts," Working Papers 02/2006, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    24. Eva (E.F.) Janssens & Robin (R.) Lumsdaine & Sebastiaan (S.H.L.C.G.) Vermeulen, 2018. "An Epidemiological Model of Crisis Spread Across Sectors in The United States," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-008/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    25. Beate Schirwitz, 2013. "Business Fluctuations, Job Flows and Trade Unions - Dynamics in the Economy," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 47.
    26. Carlo Altavilla, 2004. "Do EMU Members Share the Same Business Cycle?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5), pages 869-896, December.

  28. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Maria A. Arias & Charles S. Gascon & David E. Rapach, 2014. "Metro Business Cycles," Working Papers 2014-46, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Measurement of Business Cycles," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 966, The University of Melbourne.
    3. António Rua & Luís Catela Nunes, 2003. "Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Euro Area: A Frequency Band Approach," Working Papers w200307, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guégan, 2006. "Detection of the Industrial Business Cycle using SETAR Models," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(3), pages 353-371.
    5. Hertrich Markus, 2019. "A Novel Housing Price Misalignment Indicator for Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 759-794, December.
    6. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt & Laurent Ferrara, 2012. "A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy," Working Papers 12-02, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    7. Sebastian Edwards & Javier Gomez Biscarri & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2003. "Stock Market Cycles, Financial Liberalization and Volatility," NBER Working Papers 9817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Erik Kole & Dick Dijk, 2017. "How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 120-139, January.
    9. Barrera-Chaupis, Carlos, 2014. "La relación entre los ciclos discretos en la inflación y el crecimiento: Perú 1993-2012 [The relationship between inflation's and growth's discrete cycles: Peru 1993-2012]," MPRA Paper 60959, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Robert Lehmann & Ida Wikman, 2022. "Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States," ifo Working Paper Series 370, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    11. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Dating Business Cycles: A Methodological Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(4), pages 537-565, September.
    12. Peter McAdam, 2007. "USA, Japan and the Euro Area: Comparing Business-Cycle Features," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 135-156.
    13. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    14. Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
    15. Klaus Abberger, 2006. "Qualitative Business Surveys in Manufacturing and Industrial Production - What can be Learned from Industry Branch Results?," ifo Working Paper Series 31, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    16. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Recessions, recoveries and regional resilience: Evidence on Italy," MPRA Paper 60297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Fernando Delbianco & Andrés Fioriti & Fernando Tohmé, 2021. "Markov Chains, Eigenvalues and the Stabilityof Economic Growth Processes," Working Papers 88, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    18. Felix Haase & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2020. "Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets: A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the US," Research Papers in Economics 2020-01, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    19. Harding, Don, 2008. "Detecting and forecasting business cycle turning points," MPRA Paper 33583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Klaus Abberger & Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse : ausgewählte methodische Aufsätze aus dem ifo Schnelldienst," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 33, July.
    21. João Loureiro & Manuel M. F. Martins & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2009. "Cape Verde: The Case for Euroization," FEP Working Papers 317, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    22. Gladys COTRIE & Roland CRAIGWELL & Alain MAURIN, 2009. "Estimating Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Indicators For Barbados," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).
    23. Yizhan Shu & Chenyu Yu & John M. Mulvey, 2024. "Downside risk reduction using regime-switching signals: a statistical jump model approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(5), pages 493-507, September.
    24. Monica Billio & Massimiliano Caporin & Guido Cazzavillan, 2008. "Dating EU15 monthly business cycle jointly using GDP and IPI," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2007(3), pages 333-366.
    25. Vasyl Golosnoy & Jens Hogrefe, 2013. "Signaling NBER turning points: a sequential approach," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 438-448, February.
    26. Robert A Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2002. "Growth and volatility regime switching models for New Zealand GDP data," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/08, New Zealand Treasury.
    27. Javier De Peña & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2002. "Do Spanish Stock Market Prices Follow a Random Walk?," Faculty Working Papers 01/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    28. Liu, Wen-Hsien & Chung, Ching-Fan & Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2013. "Inventory change, capacity utilization and the semiconductor industry cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 119-127.
    29. Nissilä, Wilma, 2020. "Probit based time series models in recession forecasting – A survey with an empirical illustration for Finland," BoF Economics Review 7/2020, Bank of Finland.
    30. Michael Artis & Marianne Sensier, 2011. "Tracking Unemployment in Wales through Recession and into Recovery," SERC Discussion Papers 0079, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    31. Massmann, Michael & Mitchell, James, 2003. "Reconsidering the evidence: Are Eurozone business cycles converging," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    32. Eduardo Bandrés & María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos, 2017. "Regional business cycles across europe," Occasional Papers 1702, Banco de España.
    33. Benoit Bellone, 2004. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Econometrics 0407002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Mar 2005.
    34. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2005. "The Canadian Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: An Equilibrium-Based Approach," Staff Working Papers 05-36, Bank of Canada.
    35. Calderón, César & Fuentes, J. Rodrigo, 2014. "Have business cycles changed over the last two decades? An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 98-123.
    36. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2006. "The New Zealand Business Cycle: Return To Golden Days?," CAMA Working Papers 2006-21, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    37. Valérie Mignon & Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2023. "Dating business cycles in France : a reference chronology [Les cycles économiques de la France : une datation de référence]," Post-Print hal-03661598, HAL.
    38. Mr. Paul Cashin & Mr. Sam Ouliaris, 2001. "Key Features of Australian Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2001/171, International Monetary Fund.
    39. António Caleiro, 2011. "Acerca da importância da sincronização do ciclo económico português no contexto europeu," Economics Working Papers 4_2011, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
    40. Stan Du Plessis, 2006. "Reconsidering the business cycle and stabilisation policies in South Africa," Working Papers 010, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    41. Medhioub, Imed, 2007. "Asymétrie des cycles économiques et changement de régimes : cas de la Tunisie," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 529-553, décembre.
    42. Ghysels, Eric & Guérin, Pierre & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2014. "Regime switches in the risk–return trade-off," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 118-138.
    43. Guizzardi, Andrea & Mazzocchi, Mario, 2010. "Tourism demand for Italy and the business cycle," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 367-377.
    44. Chauvet, Marcelle & Piger, Jeremy, 2008. "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 42-49, January.
    45. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Richhild Moessner & Daniel Rees, 2023. "The shape of business cycles: a cross-country analysis of Friedman's plucking theory," BIS Working Papers 1076, Bank for International Settlements.
    46. Christian Gillitzer & Jonathan Kearns & Anthony Richards, 2005. "The Australian Business Cycle: A Coincident Indicator Approach," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    47. Ilse Botha, 2010. "A Comparative Analysis Of The Synchronisation Of Business Cycles For Developed And Developing Economies With The World Business Cycle," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(2), pages 192-207, June.
    48. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2010. "A Coincident Index, Common Factors, and Monthly Real GDP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(1), pages 27-46, February.
    49. Francis W. Ahking, 2013. "Measuring U.S. Business Cycles: A Comparison of Two Methods and Two Indicators of Economic Activities," Working papers 2013-10, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    50. Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2002. "Dating Recessions from Industrial Production Indexes: An Analysis for Europe and the US," Faculty Working Papers 05/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    51. Monica Billio & Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara & Marco Lo Duca, 2007. "A turning point chronology for the Euro-zone," Working Papers 2007_33, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    52. Hasan Engin Duran & Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes, 2017. "Determinants of co-movement and of lead and lag behavior of business cycles in the Eurozone," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 255-282, March.
    53. Edward E. Leamer, 2008. "What's a Recession, Anyway?," NBER Working Papers 14221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    54. Candy Mei Fung Tang & Brian King & Stephen Pratt, 2017. "Predicting hotel occupancies with public data," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 1096-1113, August.
    55. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "What happens during recessions, crunches and busts? [Business cycles for G-7 and European countries]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(60), pages 653-700.
    56. James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2006. "The Importance of Nonlinearity in Reproducing Business Cycle Features," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 75-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    57. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 2019-4, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    58. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2005. "A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 151-159.
    59. Quintero Otero, Jorge David & Padilla Sierra, Alcides de Jesús, 2024. "Impacto de la sincronización sub-nacional sobre el comportamiento de los ciclos nacionales en economías emergentes con inflación objetivo," Documentos Departamento de Economía 54, Universidad del Norte.
    60. Adel Bosch & Franz Ruch, 2012. "An Alternative Business Cycle Dating Procedure for South Africa," Working Papers 5210, South African Reserve Bank.
    61. Mai Shibata, 2012. "Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Japan," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 19(2), pages 99-117, May.
    62. Jitka Poměnková & Svatopluk Kapounek & Roman Maršálek, 2011. "Comparison of methodological approaches to identify economic activity regularities in transition economy," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 59(7), pages 283-292.
    63. Heikki Kauppi, 2008. "Yield-Curve Based Probit Models for Forecasting U.S. Recessions: Stability and Dynamics," Discussion Papers 31, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    64. Beate Schirwitz, 2009. "A comprehensive German business cycle chronology," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 287-301, October.
    65. Mariano Kulish & Adrian Pagan, 2021. "Turning point and oscillatory cycles: Concepts, measurement, and use," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 977-1006, September.
    66. Adrian pagan & Don Harding, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series. Working paper #1," NCER Working Paper Series 1, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    67. Marianne Sensier & Michael Artis, 2016. "The Resilience of UK Regional Employment Cycles," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 229, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    68. Charlotte Le Chapelain, 2012. "Allocation des talents et accumulation de capital humain en France à la fin du XIXe siècle," Working Papers 12-03, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    69. Bovi, M., 2005. "Economic Clubs and European Commitment. Evidence from the International Business Cycles," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(2), pages 101-122.
    70. Maurizio Bovi, 2005. "Globalization vs. Europeanization: A Business Cycles Race," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 331-345, June.
    71. Bram van Os & Dick van Dijk, 2020. "Accelerating Peak Dating in a Dynamic Factor Markov-Switching Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-057/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 14 Dec 2020.
    72. Engel, J. & Haugh, D. & Pagan, A., 2005. "Some methods for assessing the need for non-linear models in business cycle analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 651-662.
    73. Juan Francisco Martinez & Daniel Oda, 2019. "Índice de sincronía bancaria y ciclos financieros," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 841, Central Bank of Chile.
    74. Jamel Gatfaoui & Eric Girardin, 2015. "Comovement of Chinese provincial business cycles," Post-Print hal-01456105, HAL.
    75. Louise Holm, 2016. "The Swedish business cycle, 1969-2013," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2015(2), pages 1-22.
    76. Hasan Engin Duran, 2014. "Short-Run Dynamics of Income Disparities and Regional Cycle Synchronization in the U.S," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 292-332, June.
    77. Taylor, Andrew & Shepherd, David & Duncan, Stephen, 2005. "The structure of the Australian growth process: A Bayesian model selection view of Markov switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 628-645, July.
    78. James Ming Chen & Mobeen Ur Rehman, 2021. "A Pattern New in Every Moment: The Temporal Clustering of Markets for Crude Oil, Refined Fuels, and Other Commodities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-58, September.
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    104. Fabrice Hervé, 2006. "Les fonds de pension protègent-ils les investisseurs des évolutions du marché?," Working Papers CREGO 1060101, Université de Bourgogne - CREGO EA7317 Centre de recherches en gestion des organisations.
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    116. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima und Wendepunkte der deutschen Konjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(03), pages 26-31, February.
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  29. Robert Breunig & Serinah Najarian & Adrian Pagan, 2003. "Specification Testing of Markov Switching Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 703-725, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Chin Nam Low & Heather Anderson & Ralph Snyder, 2006. "Beverridge Nelson Decomposition With Markov Switching," CAMA Working Papers 2006-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Buncic, Daniel, 2009. "Understanding forecast failure in ESTAR models of real exchange rates," MPRA Paper 13121, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Daniel Buncic & Martin Melecky, 2008. "An Estimated New Keynesian Policy Model for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(264), pages 1-16, March.
    4. Cavicchioli, Maddalena, 2024. "A matrix unified framework for deriving various impulse responses in Markov switching VAR: Evidence from oil and gas markets," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    5. Theobald, Thomas, 2013. "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79911, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Robert Breunig & Alison Stegman, 2003. "Testing for Regime Switching in Singaporean Business Cycles," Departmental Working Papers 2003-20, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    7. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2010. "Non-linearities in the relation between the exchange rate and its fundamentals," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 1-21.
    8. Marcin Owczarczuk, 2009. "Maximum Score Type Estimators," Working Papers 30, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    9. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "The Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Non-Linear Models of Regional Housing Prices in the US," Working Papers 1209, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    10. Bulla, Jan, 2009. "Hidden Markov models with t components. Increased persistence and other aspects," MPRA Paper 21830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Shu-Ping Shi, 2013. "Specification sensitivities in the Markov-switching unit root test for bubbles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 697-713, October.
    12. T M Christensen & A S Hurn & K A Lindsay, 2008. "It never rains but it pours: Modelling the persistence of spikes in electricity prices," NCER Working Paper Series 25, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    13. Alexander, Carol & Kaeck, Andreas, 2008. "Regime dependent determinants of credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1008-1021, June.
    14. Monica Billio & Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara & Marco Lo Duca, 2007. "A turning point chronology for the Euro-zone," Working Papers 2007_33, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    15. Terasvirta, Timo, 2006. "Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 413-457, Elsevier.
    16. James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2006. "The Importance of Nonlinearity in Reproducing Business Cycle Features," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 75-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    17. Beate Schirwitz, 2009. "A comprehensive German business cycle chronology," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 287-301, October.
    18. Sanchit Arora, 2018. "Regime-switching monetary and fiscal policy rules and their interaction: an Indian case study," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1573-1607, June.
    19. Thomas Theobald, 2012. "Real-time Markov Switching and Leading Indicators in Times of the Financial Crisis," IMK Working Paper 98-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    20. Buncic, Daniel & Moretto, Carlo, 2014. "Forecasting Copper Prices with Dynamic Averaging and Selection Models," Economics Working Paper Series 1430, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    21. Morley James & Piger Jeremy & Tien Pao-Lin, 2013. "Reproducing business cycle features: are nonlinear dynamics a proxy for multivariate information?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(5), pages 483-498, December.
    22. Sumru Altuğ & Melike Bildirici, 2010. "Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime Switching Approach," Working Papers 0032, Yildiz Technical University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2010.
    23. Buncic, Daniel, 2008. "A note on long horizon forecasts of nonlinear models of real exchange rates: Comments on Rapach and Wohar (2006)," MPRA Paper 6904, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Shanshan Qin & Zhenni Tan & Yuehua Wu, 2024. "On robust estimation of hidden semi-Markov regime-switching models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 338(2), pages 1049-1081, July.
    25. Willem H. Boshoff & Rossouw van Jaarsveld, 2019. "Recurrent Collusion: Cartel Episodes and Overcharges in the South African Cement Market," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 54(2), pages 353-380, March.
    26. Huseyin Tastan & Nuri Yildirim, 2008. "Business cycle asymmetries in Turkey: an application of Markov-switching autoregressions," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 315-333.
    27. Carol Alexander & Andreas Kaeck, 2006. "Regimes in CDS Spreads: A Markov Switching Model of iTraxx Europe Indices," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2006-08, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    28. Monica Billio & Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara & Marco Lo Duca, 2007. "Business Cycle Analysis with Multivariate Markov Switching Models," Working Papers 2007_32, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    29. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of real exchange rate behavior," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 341-361.
    30. Qin Xiao & Randolph Gee Kwang Tan, 2006. "Markov-switching Unit Root Test: A study of the Property Price Bubbles in Hong Kong and Seoul," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 0602, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    31. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Bohl, Martin T. & Serwa, Dobromil, 2006. "Testing for financial spillovers in calm and turbulent periods," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 397-412, July.
    32. Smith Daniel R, 2009. "Asymmetry in Stochastic Volatility Models: Threshold or Correlation?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(3), pages 1-36, May.

  30. Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46.

    Cited by:

    1. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
    2. Yu-Lieh Huang, 2009. "Identifying turbulent and calm regimes in stock prices: evidence from the Taiwan stock market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(14), pages 1477-1481.
    3. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2009. "An econometric analysis of some models for constructed binary time series," CAMA Working Papers 2009-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Xiaolei Wang, 2009. "The Nexus between Analyst Forecast Dispersion and Expected Returns Surrounding Stock Market Crashes," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, December.
    5. Heidari , Hassan & Refah-Kahriz, Arash & Hashemi Berenjabadi, Nayyer, 2018. "Dynamic Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Return Volatility in Tehran Stock Exchange: Multivariate MS ARMA GARCH Approach," Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Business, University of Tabriz, vol. 5(2), pages 223-250, August.
    6. Jia Liu & John M. Maheu & Yong Song, 2024. "Identification and forecasting of bull and bear markets using multivariate returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 723-745, August.
    7. Thampanya, Natthinee & Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc, 2020. "Asymmetric correlation and hedging effectiveness of gold & cryptocurrencies: From pre-industrial to the 4th industrial revolution✰," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    8. Lu, Tsung-Hsun & Chen, Yi-Chi & Hsu, Yu-Chin, 2015. "Trend definition or holding strategy: What determines the profitability of candlestick charting?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 172-183.
    9. Ihle, Rico & Bar-Nahum, Ziv & Nivievskyi, Oleg & Rubin, Ofir D., 2022. "Russia’s invasion of Ukraine increased the synchronisation of global commodity prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(04), January.
    10. Sebastian Edwards & Javier Gomez Biscarri & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2003. "Stock Market Cycles, Financial Liberalization and Volatility," NBER Working Papers 9817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Erik Kole & Dick Dijk, 2017. "How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 120-139, January.
    12. Xu, Yongan & Wang, Jianqiong & Chen, Zhonglu & Liang, Chao, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns: New evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    13. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Olivier Damette & Antoine Parent & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2017. "Liquidity traps and large-scale financial crises," Post-Print halshs-01675562, HAL.
    14. Albuquerque, Rui & Eichenbaum, Martin & Papanikolaou, Dimitris & Rebelo, Sergio, 2015. "Long-run bulls and bears," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 21-36.
    15. Wang, Wenzhao & Su, Chen & Duxbury, Darren, 2021. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Global evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 365-391.
    16. Haiyuan Yin & Xingying Wu & Sophie X Kong, 2022. "Daily investor sentiment, order flow imbalance and stock liquidity: evidence from the Chinese stock market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4816-4836, October.
    17. Kose, M. Ayhan & Sugawara, Naotaka & E. Terrones, Marco, 2020. "Global Recessions," CEPR Discussion Papers 14397, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Scott M. R. Mahadeo & Reinhold Heinlein & Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi, 2019. "Contagion Testing in Embryonic Markets under Alternative Stressful US Market Scenarios," CESifo Working Paper Series 8029, CESifo.
    19. Ahmed, Jameel & Straetmans, Stefan, 2015. "Predicting exchange rate cycles utilizing risk factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 112-130.
    20. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Krzysztof Dmytrów, 2021. "Evaluation of Changes on World Stock Exchanges in Connection with the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic. Survival Analysis Methods," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-19, June.
    21. Wen, Xiaoqian & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Does oil product pricing reform increase returns and uncertainty in the Chinese stock market?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 23-30.
    22. Lee, Minhyuk & Song, Jae Wook & Kim, Sondo & Chang, Woojin, 2018. "Asymmetric market efficiency using the index-based asymmetric-MFDFA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 1278-1294.
    23. Ralf Becker & Adam Clements & Robert O'Neill, 2010. "A Kernel Technique for Forecasting the Variance-Covariance Matrix," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 151, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    24. Terence t. l. Chong & Xiaolei Wang, 2013. "Can analyst predict stock market crashes?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 158-166.
    25. Felix Haase & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2020. "Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets: A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the US," Research Papers in Economics 2020-01, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    26. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon-Lane, 2013. "Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Cause Asset Price Booms; Some Historical and Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 19585, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Friedrich, Christian & Klein, Melanie, 2009. "On the look-out for the bear: Predicting stock market downturns in G7 countries," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 451, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    28. Jonathan Benchimol & Yossi Saadon & Nimrod Segev, 2023. "Stock market reactions to monetary policy surprises under uncertainty," Post-Print emse-04624984, HAL.
    29. Xu, Yongan & Liang, Chao & Wang, Jianqiong, 2023. "Financial stress and returns predictability: Fresh evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    30. Yizhan Shu & Chenyu Yu & John M. Mulvey, 2024. "Downside risk reduction using regime-switching signals: a statistical jump model approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(5), pages 493-507, September.
    31. Hodula, Martin & Pfeifer, Lukáš & Janků, Jan, 2022. "The effect of structural risks on financial downturns," ESRB Working Paper Series 138, European Systemic Risk Board.
    32. Kenneth W Clements & Grace Gao, 2013. "A Multi-Market Approach to Measuring the Cycle," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 13-16, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    33. Linh Nguyen & Vilém Novák & Soheyla Mirshahi, 2020. "Trend‐cycle Estimation Using Fuzzy Transform and Its Application for Identifying Bull and Bear Phases in Markets," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 111-124, July.
    34. Michael D. Bordo & David C. Wheelock, 2006. "When do stock market booms occur? the macroeconomic and policy environments of 20th century booms," Working Papers 2006-051, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    35. Kirby, Chris, 2023. "A closer look at the regime-switching evidence of bull and bear markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    36. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
    37. Kurov, Alexander & Olson, Eric & Zaynutdinova, Gulnara R., 2022. "When does the fed care about stock prices?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    38. Jiang, Yu & Fang, Xianming, 2015. "Bull, bear or any other states in US stock market?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 54-58.
    39. Paulo Pereira da Silva & Victor Mendes & Margarida Abreu, 2022. "The disposition effect among mutual fund participants: a re-examination," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(12), pages 1237-1256, August.
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  32. Lawrence J. Christiano & Adrian R. Pagan & David J. Stockton, 2002. "What is a good macroeconomic model for a central bank to use? panel discussion," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.

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    1. Bohdan Klos & Ryszard Kokoszczynski & Tomasz Lyziak & Jan Przystupa & Ewa Wrobel, 2005. "Structural Econometric Models in Forecasting Inflation at the National Bank of Poland," NBP Working Papers 31, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    2. Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "Targeting Inflation under Uncertainty: Policy Makers’ Perspective," Macroeconomics 0304003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Damdinsuren, Batnyam & Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Łyziak, Tomasz, 2008. "Small Inflation Model of Mongolia (SIMOM)," MPRA Paper 72139, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2008.

  33. Adrian Pagan, 2002. "Learning About Models and Their Fit to Data," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18.

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    1. Buncic, Daniel, 2009. "Understanding forecast failure in ESTAR models of real exchange rates," MPRA Paper 13121, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Sebastian Edwards & Javier Gomez Biscarri & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2003. "Stock Market Cycles, Financial Liberalization and Volatility," NBER Working Papers 9817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "The Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Non-Linear Models of Regional Housing Prices in the US," Working Papers 1209, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    4. Mr. Gene L. Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2003. "Time-Varying Thresholds: An Application to Purchasing Power Parity," IMF Working Papers 2003/181, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Buncic, Daniel & Moretto, Carlo, 2014. "Forecasting Copper Prices with Dynamic Averaging and Selection Models," Economics Working Paper Series 1430, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    6. Buncic, Daniel, 2008. "A note on long horizon forecasts of nonlinear models of real exchange rates: Comments on Rapach and Wohar (2006)," MPRA Paper 6904, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Hyginus Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2005. "Asymmetric adjustment and nonlinear dynamics in real exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 15-39.
    8. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of real exchange rate behavior," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 341-361.

  34. Adrian Pagan & Michael Veall, 2001. "Data mining and the econometrics industry: comments on the papers of Mayer and of Hoover and Perez," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 211-216.

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    1. Adam Okulicz-Kozaryn, 2014. "‘Freedom From’ and ‘Freedom To’ Across Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 1009-1029, September.

  35. Mardi Dungey & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-342, December.

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    1. Nguyen Thi Thuy Hong & Hoang Thi Lich & Bui Thi Thanh Nga, 2017. "The Social Investment Capital and the Cargo Volume Transported by Sea: A VAR Approach for Vietnam," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 1(2), pages 1-9, September.
    2. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ayaz Ahmed, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Global Food and Oil Price Shocks to the Pakistan Economy: A Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 491-511.
    3. Lei Lei Song & John Freebairn & Don Harding, 2001. "Policy Options to Reduce Unemployment: TRYM Simulations," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2001n19, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    4. Apergis, Nicholas, 2014. "Can gold prices forecast the Australian dollar movements?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 75-82.
    5. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2014. "Monetary transmission mechanism analysis in a small, open economy: the case of Vietnam," OSF Preprints ybc8p, Center for Open Science.
    6. Daniel Buncic & Martin Melecky, 2008. "An Estimated New Keynesian Policy Model for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(264), pages 1-16, March.
    7. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Quising, Pilipinas & He, Xin-Hua, 2006. "How much does investment drive economic growth in China?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 751-774, October.
    8. Raghavan, Mala & Dungey, Mardi, 2014. "Should ASEAN-5 Monetary Policymakers Act Pre-emptively Against Stock Market Bubbles?," Working Papers 2014-04, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 2014.
    9. Adebayo Augustine Kutu & Harold Ngalawa, 2016. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Industrial Sector Performance in South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 8(3), pages 26-40.
    10. Alfred A. Haug & Christie Smith, 2007. "Local linear impulse responses for a small open economy," Working Papers 0707, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2007.
    11. Finlay, Richard & Jääskelä, Jarkko P., 2014. "Credit supply shocks and the global financial crisis in three small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 270-276.
    12. Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2013. "The Industrial Impact of Monetary Shocks During the Inflation‐Targeting Era in Australia," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(1), pages 47-71, March.
    13. Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "A Gibbs sampler for structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 349-366, November.
    14. Mansur, Alfan & Liu, Yichang & Zaman, Kazi Arif Uz, 2015. "Portfolio Shocks and the Dynamics of the Real Economy of Australia (1980-2014): A Structural Vector Autoregressive Model Approach," MPRA Paper 93992, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 May 2015.
    15. Muhammad Khan, 2013. "Inflation and Sectoral Output Growth Variability in Bulgaria," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 55(4), pages 687-704, December.
    16. Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2011. "On the differential impact of monetary policy across states/territories and its determinants in Australia: Evidence and new methodology from a small open economy," MPRA Paper 44998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Luis Catão & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "The Credit Channel and Monetary Transmission in Brazil and Chile: A Structured VAR Approach," NCER Working Paper Series 53, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    18. James Graham & Avish Sharma, 2024. "Monetary Policy and the Homeownership Rate," Working Papers 2024-11, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    19. Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Firm Size and Equity Returns in An Emerging Market: Panel Evidence of Malaysia," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 11(2), pages 29-55.
    20. Wollmershauser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-519, September.
    21. Hamish Burrell & Joaquin Vespignani, 2019. "The industrial impact of economic uncertainty shocks in Australia," CAMA Working Papers 2019-89, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    22. Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Heather Kirkham & Nathan McLellan & Jared Sharma, 2002. "A structural VAR model of the New Zealand business cycle," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/26, New Zealand Treasury.
    23. Afrin, Sadia, 2020. "Does oligopolistic banking friction amplify small open economy's business cycles? Evidence from Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 119-138.
    24. Mala Raghavan & George Athanasopoulos & Param Silvapulle, 2016. "Canadian monetary policy analysis using a structural VARMA model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 347-373, February.
    25. Mr. Philippe D Karam & A. R. Pagan, 2008. "A Small Structural Monetary Policy Model for Small Open Economies with Debt Accumulation," IMF Working Papers 2008/064, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Hartigan, Luke & Morley, James, 2019. "A Factor Model Analysis of the Australian Economy and the Effects of Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 2019-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Nov 2019.
    27. Knop, Stephen J. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2014. "The sectorial impact of commodity price shocks in Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 257-271.
    28. Mwankemwa, Lusajo P. & Mlamka, Bonaventura, 2022. "Effects of Monetary Policy on Bank’s Credit Dynamics in Tanzania," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(2), March.
    29. Mr. Paul Cashin & Mr. Sam Ouliaris, 2001. "Key Features of Australian Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2001/171, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Dungey, Mardi & Vehbi, Tugrul, 2015. "The influences of international output shocks from the US and China on ASEAN economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 59-71.
    31. Gustafsson, Peter & Stockhammar, Pär & Österholm, Pär, 2015. "Macroeconomic Effects of a Decline in Housing Prices in Sweden," Working Papers 138, National Institute of Economic Research.
    32. Muhammad Zeeshan Younas & Muhammad Arshad Khan, 2018. "Macroeconomic Impacts of External Shocks on Economy:Recursive Vector Autoregressive (RVAR) Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 7(4), pages 169-184, December.
    33. Leu, Shawn Chen-Yu, 2011. "A New Keynesian SVAR model of the Australian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 157-168, January.
    34. Melecky, Ales & Melecky, Martin, 2012. "Vliv makroekonomických šoků na dynamiku vládního dluhu: jak robustní je fiskální pozice České republiky? [The Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks on the Government Debt Dynamics: How Robust is the Fisca," MPRA Paper 39761, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    1. Peresetsky, Anatoly & Yakubov, Ruslan, 2015. "Autocorrelation in an unobservable global trend: Does it help to forecast market returns?," MPRA Paper 64579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    3. Dieppe, Alistair & Mourinho Félix, Ricardo & Marchiori, Luca & Grech, Owen & Albani, Maria & Lalouette, Laure & Kulikov, Dmitry & Papadopoulou, Niki & Sideris, Dimitris & Irac, Delphine & Gordo Mora, , 2015. "Public debt, population ageing and medium-term growth," Occasional Paper Series 165, European Central Bank.
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    5. von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig & Pagano, Marco & Favero, Carlo A., 2008. "How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6649, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    7. Dungey, Mardi & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Matei, Marius & Yang, Xiye, 2018. "Testing for mutually exciting jumps and financial flights in high frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 18-44.
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    10. Jiménez, Gabriel & Mencía, Javier, 2009. "Modelling the distribution of credit losses with observable and latent factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 235-253, March.
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    12. Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2008. "Government risk premiums in the bond market: EMU and Canada," Working Paper Series 879, European Central Bank.
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    19. Qin, Weiping & Cho, Sungjun & Hyde, Stuart, 2023. "Time-varying bond market integration and the impact of financial crises," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    20. Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renee & Gonzalez-Hermosillo, Brenda & Martin, Vance, 2006. "Contagion in international bond markets during the Russian and the LTCM crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-27, April.
    21. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Galesi, Alessandro & Sentana, Enrique, 2018. "A spectral EM algorithm for dynamic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 249-279.
    22. Ms. Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Mr. Vance Martin & Ms. Renee Fry & Mr. Mardi Dungey, 2003. "Unanticipated Shocks and Systemic Influences: The Impact of Contagion in Global Equity Markets in 1998," IMF Working Papers 2003/084, International Monetary Fund.
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    25. Andrea Cipollini & George Kapetanios, 2004. "A Stochastic Variance Factor Model for Large Datasets and an Application to S&P Data," Working Papers 506, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    26. Vance L. Martin & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo, & Mardi Dungey & Renee A. Fry, 2004. "Empirical Modelling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 243, Econometric Society.
    27. Dungey, Mardi, 2004. "Identifying terms of trade effects in real exchange rate movements: evidence from Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 217-235, April.
    28. Neil Shephard & Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2003. "Likelihood-based estimation of latent generalised ARCH structures," FMG Discussion Papers dp453, Financial Markets Group.
    29. Bernoth, Kerstin & Wolff, Guntram B., 2006. "Fool the markets? Creative accounting, fiscal transparency and sovereign risk premia," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,19, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    30. Lauren Stagnol, 2019. "Extracting global factors from local yield curves," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(5), pages 341-350, September.
    31. Lauren Stagnol, 2017. "Introducing global term structure in a risk parity framework," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-23, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    32. Ms. Renee Fry & Mr. Vance Martin & Ms. Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Mr. Mardi Dungey, 2002. "International Contagion Effects from the Russian Crisis and the LTCM Near-Collapse," IMF Working Papers 2002/074, International Monetary Fund.
    33. D'Agostino, Antonello & Ehrmann, Michael, 2012. "The pricing of G7 sovereign bond spreads – the times, they are a-changin," MPRA Paper 40604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Sufana, R., 2010. "International money and stock market contingent claims," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1727-1751, December.
    35. Faruk Balli, 2009. "Spillover effects on government bond yields in euro zone. Does full financial integration exist in European government bond markets?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(4), pages 331-363, October.
    36. Mardi Dungey & Gerald P. Dwyer & Thomas Flavin, 2009. "Vintage and credit rating: what matters in the ABX data during the credit crunch?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
    37. Samir Kadiric, 2022. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: the impact of Brexit," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 267-298, May.
    38. Broto, Carmen, 2003. "Unobserved component models with asymmetric conditional variances," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws032003, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    39. Wellmann, Dennis & Trück, Stefan, 2018. "Factors of the term structure of sovereign yield spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 56-75.
    40. Broto, Carmen & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel, 2015. "Disentangling contagion among sovereign CDS spreads during the European debt crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 165-179.
    41. Manevich, Vyacheslav & Peresetsky, Anatoly & Pogorelova, Polina, 2022. "Stock market and cryptocurrency market volatility," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 65, pages 65-76.
    42. Favero, Carlo A. & Söderström, Ulf & Kaminska, Iryna, 2005. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and A Structural Interpretation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4910, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    43. Gonzalez-Hermosillo Gonzalez, B.M., 2008. "Transmission of shocks across global financial markets : The role of contagion and investors' risk appetite," Other publications TiSEM d684f3c7-7ad8-4e93-88cf-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    44. P. Manasse & L. Zavalloni, 2013. "Sovereign Contagion in Europe: Evidence from the CDS Market," Working Papers wp863, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    45. Kiril Strahilov, 2006. "The Determinants of Country Risk in Eastern European Countries," Bruges European Economic Research Papers 8, European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe.
    46. Mardi Dungey & Diana Zhumabekova, 2001. "Factor analysis of a model of stock market returns using simulation-based estimation techniques," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2001-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    49. Sun, David & Tsai, Shih-Chuan, 2013. "Diversifying Risks in Bond Portfolios: A Cross-border Approach," MPRA Paper 44767, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Jan 2014.
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    51. Sekkel, Rodrigo, 2011. "International evidence on bond risk premia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 174-181, January.
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    60. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2013. "A dynamic factor model with time-varying loadings for euro area bond markets during the debt crisis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 50-54.
    61. Korhonen, Iikka & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2013. "Extracting global stochastic trend from non-synchronous data," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2013, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    62. Mardi Dungey & Vance L. Martin, 2004. "A Multifactor Model of Exchange Rates with Unanticipated Shocks: Measuring Contagion in the East Asian Currency Crisis," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 3(3), pages 305-330, December.
    63. Bhatt, Vipul & Kishor, N Kundan & Ma, Jun, 2017. "The impact of EMU on bond yield convergence: Evidence from a time-varying dynamic factor model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 206-222.
    64. Hallerberg, Mark & Wolff, Guntram B., 2006. "Fiscal institutions, fiscal policy and sovereign risk premia," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,35, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    65. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzales-Hermosillo & Vance L. Martin, 2005. "Shocks And Systemic Influences: Contagion In Global Equity Markets In 1998," CAMA Working Papers 2005-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    66. Samir Kadiric, 2020. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: The impact of Brexit," EIIW Discussion paper disbei271, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    67. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2012. "Tests for Serial Dependence in Static, Non-Gaussian Factor Models," Working Papers wp2012_1211, CEMFI.
    68. Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Term premiums and inflation uncertainty: empirical evidence from an international panel dataset," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  37. Pagan, Adrian, 1999. "Some uses of simulation in econometrics," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 341-349.

    Cited by:

    1. Castro, Tomás del Barrio & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2013. "The Impact Of Persistent Cycles On Zero Frequency Unit Root Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(6), pages 1289-1313, December.
    2. Adrian Pagan, 2001. "The Getting of Macroeconomic Wisdom," International Economic Association Series, in: Jacques Drèze (ed.), Advances in Macroeconomic Theory, chapter 11, pages 219-235, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 2002. "Simulated Score Methods and Indirect Inference for Continuous-time Models," Working Papers 02-09, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    4. Louis J. Maccini & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Inventories, Fluctuations and Business Cycles. Working paper #4," NCER Working Paper Series 4, National Centre for Econometric Research.

  38. Gruen, David & Pagan, Adrian & Thompson, Christopher, 1999. "The Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 223-258, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  39. A. R. Pagan & J. C. Robertson, 1998. "Structural Models Of The Liquidity Effect," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 202-217, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  40. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Robertson, John C., 1998. "Some experiments in constructing a hybrid model for macroeconomic analysis," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 113-142, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Peter Ireland, 1999. "A Method for Taking Models to the Data," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1233, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Warwick J. McKibbin & Kanhaiya Singh, 2003. "Issues in the Choice of a Monetary Regime for India," Chapters, in: Kaliappa Kalirajan & Ulaganathan Sankar (ed.), Economic Reform and the Liberalisation of the Indian Economy, chapter 10, pages 221-274, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. James B. Ang, 2007. "A Survey Of Recent Developments In The Literature Of Finance And Growth," Monash Economics Working Papers 03-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    4. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 2013. "A Global Approach to Energy and the Environment," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 995-1068, Elsevier.
    5. Philip Liu, 2007. "Stabilizing The Australian Business Cycle: Good Luck Or Good Policy?," CAMA Working Papers 2007-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

  41. S. Levtchenkova & A. R. Pagan & J. C. Robertson, 1998. "Shocking Stories," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 507-532, December.

    Cited by:

    1. David Fielding & Kalvinder Shields, 2001. "A Nation Divided? Price and Output Dynamics in English Regions," Discussion Papers in Economics 01/6, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    2. Adrian Pagan, 2001. "The Getting of Macroeconomic Wisdom," International Economic Association Series, in: Jacques Drèze (ed.), Advances in Macroeconomic Theory, chapter 11, pages 219-235, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-Seung & Summers, Peter M., 2000. "Structural Identification of Permanent Shocks in VEC Models: A Generalization," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 53-68, January.
    4. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Girardi, Alessandro, 2013. "Price discovery and trade fragmentation in a multi-market environment: Evidence from the MTS system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 227-240.
    5. Brüggemann, Ralf, 2006. "Finite sample properties of impulse response intervals in SVECMs with long-run identifying restrictions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2006-021, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    6. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, April.
    7. Ribba, Antonio, 2007. "Permanent disinflationary effects on unemployment in a small open economy: Italy 1979-1995," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 66-81, January.
    8. Mardi Dungey & Denise R Osborn, 2009. "Modelling International Linkages for Large Open Economies: US and Euro Area," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 121, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    9. David Fielding & Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The Characteristics of Macroeconomic Shocks in the CFA Franc Zone," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2004-21, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Alessio Moneta & Doris Entner & Patrik O. Hoyer & Alex Coad, 2013. "Causal Inference by Independent Component Analysis: Theory and Applications," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 705-730, October.
    11. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Robertson, John C., 1998. "Some experiments in constructing a hybrid model for macroeconomic analysis," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 113-142, December.
    12. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Zimmermann, Beatrice Aline & Mendonça, Diogo de Prince & Merlin, Giovanni Tondin, 2015. "Addressing important econometric issues on how to construct theoretical based exchange rate misalignment estimates," Textos para discussão 401, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    13. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani, 2010. "Measuring Business Cycles by Saving for a Rainy Day," NBER Working Papers 16075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Bakri Abdul Karim, 2016. "Foreign Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy: A SVAR Study of Malaysia," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 3(12), pages 45-67, JUNE.
    15. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry, 2007. "The Identification Of Fiscal And Monetary Policy In A Structural Var," CAMA Working Papers 2007-29, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2010. "Cointegration, long-run structural modelling and weak exogeneity: Two models of the UK economy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 108-116, September.
    17. Michael R. Wickens & Roberto Motto, 2001. "Estimating shocks and impulse response functions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 371-387.
    18. Hoffman, Mathias, 2001. "The Relative Dynamics of Investment and the Current Account in the G7-Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages 148-163, May.
    19. Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca, 2003. "Measuring the business cycle effects of permanent and transitory shocks in cointegrated time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 45-51, July.
    20. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, 2008. "Modeling Monetary Transmission in Switzerland with a Structural Cointegrated VAR Model," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 144(II), pages 197-246, June.
    21. Antonio Ribba, 2006. "The joint dynamics of inflation, unemployment and interest rate in the United States since 1980," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 497-511, June.
    22. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin C & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "A Structural Cointegrating VAR Approach to Macroeconometric Modelling," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9823, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    23. Jeon, Yongil & Shields, Michael P., 2008. "The Impact of Relative Cohort Size on U.S. Fertility, 1913-2001," IZA Discussion Papers 3587, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    24. Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Bakri Abdul Karim, 2016. "Foreign Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy: A SVAR Study of Malaysia," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(3), pages 45-67, JUNE.

  42. Hylleberg, S. & Pagan, A. R., 1997. "Seasonal integration and the evolving seasonals model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 329-340, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  43. Phillip Kearns & Adrian Pagan, 1997. "Estimating The Density Tail Index For Financial Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 171-175, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Cotter, John, 2004. "Varying the VaR for Unconditional and Conditional Environments," MPRA Paper 3483, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Cem PAYASLIOGLU, 2001. "A Tail Index Tour across Foreign Exchange Regimes in Turkey," Middle East and North Africa 330400049, EcoMod.
    3. Iglesias, Emma M., 2015. "Value at Risk of the main stock market indexes in the European Union (2000–2012)," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-13.
    4. Bryan Kelly & Hao Jiang, 2013. "Tail Risk and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 19375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. G. D. Gettinby & C. D. Sinclair & D. M. Power & R. A. Brown, 2004. "An Analysis of the Distribution of Extreme Share Returns in the UK from 1975 to 2000," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5‐6), pages 607-646, June.
    6. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Faias, José Afonso, 2023. "Predicting the equity risk premium using the smooth cross-sectional tail risk: The importance of correlation," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    8. Wagner, Niklas & Marsh, Terry A., 2005. "Measuring tail thickness under GARCH and an application to extreme exchange rate changes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 165-185, January.
    9. Segnon, Mawuli & Lux, Thomas, 2013. "Multifractal models in finance: Their origin, properties, and applications," Kiel Working Papers 1860, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Cotter, John, 2001. "Margin exceedences for European stock index futures using extreme value theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1475-1502, August.
    11. Fendel, Ralf & Neumann, Christian, 2021. "Tail risk in the European sovereign bond market during the financial crises: Detecting the influence of the European Central Bank," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    12. Su Xu, 2017. "A VaR assuming Student t distribution not significantly different from a VaR assuming normal distribution," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(3), pages 189-201, August.
    13. Iglesias, Emma M. & Linton, Oliver, 2009. "Estimation of tail thickness parameters from GJR-GARCH models," UC3M Working papers. Economics we094726, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    14. Daniele Massacci, 2017. "Tail Risk Dynamics in Stock Returns: Links to the Macroeconomy and Global Markets Connectedness," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(9), pages 3072-3089, September.
    15. Mittnik, Stefan & Paolella, Marc S. & Rachev, Svetlozar T., 2002. "Stationarity of stable power-GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 97-107, January.
    16. Victor Pontines, 2010. "Fat-tails and house prices in OECD countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(14), pages 1373-1377.
    17. Simone Alfarano & Thomas Lux, 2011. "Extreme value theory as a theoretical background for power law behavior," Working Papers 2011/02, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    18. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2003. "Testing for differences in the tails of stock-market returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 559-581, December.
    19. Batten, Jonathan A. & Ellis, Craig A., 2005. "Paramater estimation bias and volatility scaling in Black-Scholes option prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 165-176.
    20. Bidarkota, Prasad V. & Dupoyet, Brice V. & McCulloch, J. Huston, 2009. "Asset pricing with incomplete information and fat tails," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1314-1331, June.
    21. Francq, Christian & Zakoïan, Jean-Michel, 2022. "Testing the existence of moments for GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 47-64.
    22. Peter C.B. Phillips & James W. McFarland & Patrick C. McMahon, 1994. "Robust Tests of Forward Exchange Market Efficiency with Empirical Evidence from the 1920's," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1080, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    23. Fernandes, Marcelo, 2006. "Financial crashes as endogenous jumps: estimation, testing and forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 111-141, January.
    24. John Cotter, 2011. "Tail Behaviour of the Euro," Papers 1103.5418, arXiv.org.
    25. ROCKINGER, Michael & JONDEAU, Eric, 2000. "Conditional Volatility, Skewness, and Kurtosis : Existence and Persistence," HEC Research Papers Series 710, HEC Paris.
    26. Kyritsis, Evangelos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2017. "The Zero Lower Bound and Market Spillovers: Evidence from the G7 and Norway," Discussion Papers 2017/7, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    27. Keng‐Hsin Lo & Kehluh Wang & Ming‐Feng Hsu, 2008. "Pricing European Asian options with skewness and kurtosis in the underlying distribution," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 598-616, June.
    28. João Nicolau & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2019. "A New Regression-Based Tail Index Estimator," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 667-680, October.
    29. Wesselhöfft, Niels & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2019. "Constrained Kelly portfolios under alpha-stable laws," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2019-004, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    30. John Cotter, 2004. "Downside risk for European equity markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(10), pages 707-716.
    31. Emma M. Iglesias, 2012. "An analysis of extreme movements of exchange rates of the main currencies traded in the Foreign Exchange market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(35), pages 4631-4637, December.
    32. Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann & John D. Stroughair, 1998. "Pitfalls and Opportunities in the Use of Extreme Value Theory in Risk Management," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-081, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    33. John Cotter, 2005. "Extreme risk in futures contracts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 489-492.
    34. Cotter, John & Longin, Francois, 2004. "Margin setting with high-frequency data," MPRA Paper 3528, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006.
    35. Mittnik, Stefan & Paolella, Marc S. & Rachev, Svetlozar T., 2000. "Diagnosing and treating the fat tails in financial returns data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 389-416, November.
    36. Raj Aggarwal & Min Qi, 2009. "Distribution of extreme changes in Asian currencies: tail index estimates and value-at-risk calculations," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(13), pages 1083-1102.
    37. Einmahl, J.H.J. & de Haan, L.F.M. & Zhou, C., 2014. "Statistics of Heteroscedastic Extremes," Other publications TiSEM 19952ae4-25ff-4e1b-8627-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    38. Tim Bollerslev & Viktor Todorov, 2010. "Jump Tails, Extreme Dependencies, and the Distribution of Stock Returns," CREATES Research Papers 2010-64, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    39. Chao Huang & Jin-Guan Lin & Yan-Yan Ren, 2012. "Statistical Inferences for Generalized Pareto Distribution Based on Interior Penalty Function Algorithm and Bootstrap Methods and Applications in Analyzing Stock Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 39(2), pages 173-193, February.
    40. Jose A. Lopez, 1999. "Methods for evaluating value-at-risk estimates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-17.
    41. Niklas Wagner & Terry Marsh, 2004. "Tail index estimation in small smaples Simulation results for independent and ARCH-type financial return models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 545-561, October.
    42. DiTraglia, Francis J. & Gerlach, Jeffrey R., 2013. "Portfolio selection: An extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 305-323.
    43. Y. Malevergne & V. F. Pisarenko & D. Sornette, 2003. "Empirical Distributions of Log-Returns: between the Stretched Exponential and the Power Law?," Papers physics/0305089, arXiv.org.
    44. John W. Galbraith, 2004. "Circuit Breakers and the Tail Index of Equity Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 109-129.
    45. Iglesias, Emma M., 2015. "Value at Risk and expected shortfall of firms in the main European Union stock market indexes: A detailed analysis by economic sectors and geographical situation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-8.
    46. John G. Galbraith & Serguei Zernov, 2006. "Extreme Dependence In The Nasdaq And S&P Composite Indexes," Departmental Working Papers 2006-14, McGill University, Department of Economics.
    47. Patrice Bertail & Dimitris Politis & Haeffke Christian & Halbert White, 2004. "Subsampling the distribution of diverging statistics with applications to finance," Post-Print hal-03148840, HAL.
    48. Niels Wesselhöfft & Wolfgang K. Härdle, 2020. "Risk-Constrained Kelly Portfolios Under Alpha-Stable Laws," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 801-826, March.
    49. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & João Nicolau, 2015. "A New Regression-Based Tail Index Estimator: An Application to Exchange Rates," Working Papers w201514, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    50. John Goddard & Enrico Onali, 2014. "Self-affinity in financial asset returns," Papers 1401.7170, arXiv.org.
    51. Batten, Jonathan & Ellis, Craig & Fetherston, Thomas A., 2000. "Are long-term return anomalies illusions?: Evidence from the spot Yen," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 337-349, December.
    52. Zhenxi Chen & Thomas Lux, 2018. "Estimation of Sentiment Effects in Financial Markets: A Simulated Method of Moments Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(3), pages 711-744, October.
    53. Andrea Bastianin, 2020. "Robust measures of skewness and kurtosis for macroeconomic and financial time series," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(7), pages 637-670, February.
    54. Andreas Behr & Ulrich Pötter, 2009. "Alternatives to the normal model of stock returns: Gaussian mixture, generalised logF and generalised hyperbolic models," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 49-68, January.
    55. Cheng-Few Lee & Jung-Bin Su, 2012. "Alternative statistical distributions for estimating value-at-risk: theory and evidence," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 309-331, October.
    56. Simone Alfarano & Thomas Lux & Friedrich Wagner, 2005. "Estimation of Agent-Based Models: The Case of an Asymmetric Herding Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 19-49, August.
    57. Marian Vavra, 2012. "Robustness of Power Properties of Non-linearity Tests," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1205, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    58. Carmela E. Quintos & Zhenhong Fan & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2000. "Structural Change in Tail Behavior and the Asian Financial Crisis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1283, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    59. Tadele Akeba Diriba & Legesse Kassa Debusho, 2020. "Modelling dependency effect to extreme value distributions with application to extreme wind speed at Port Elizabeth, South Africa: a frequentist and Bayesian approaches," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 1449-1479, September.
    60. Bali, Turan G. & Neftci, Salih N., 2003. "Disturbing extremal behavior of spot rate dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 455-477, September.
    61. Bertrand B. Maillet & Jean-Philippe R. M�decin, 2010. "Extreme Volatilities, Financial Crises and L-moment Estimations of Tail-indexes," Working Papers 2010_10, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    62. Emma M. Iglesias & Mar�a Dolores Lagoa Varela, 2012. "Extreme movements of the main stocks traded in the Eurozone: an analysis by sectors in the 2000's decade," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(24), pages 2085-2100, December.
    63. Cotter, John, 2000. "Volatility and the Euro: an Irish perspective," MPRA Paper 3535, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    64. Konstantinos Tolikas & Athanasios Koulakiotis & Richard A. Brown, 2007. "Extreme Risk and Value-at-Risk in the German Stock Market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 373-395.
    65. Osman Doğan & Süleyman Taşpınar & Anil K. Bera, 2021. "Bayesian estimation of stochastic tail index from high-frequency financial data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2685-2711, November.
    66. Riedel, Christoph & Wagner, Niklas, 2015. "Is risk higher during non-trading periods? The risk trade-off for intraday versus overnight market returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 53-64.
    67. Gordon V. Chavez, 2019. "Dynamic tail inference with log-Laplace volatility," Papers 1901.02419, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2019.

  44. Pagan, Adrian, 1997. "Policy, Theory, and the Cycle," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 13(3), pages 19-33, Autumn.

    Cited by:

    1. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
    2. Clements, M.C. & Krolzig, H.-M., 2001. "Modelling Business Cycle Features Using Switching Regime Models," Economics Series Working Papers 9958, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Veaceslav Grigoras & Irina Eusignia Stanciu, 2016. "New evidence on the (de)synchronisation of business cycles: Reshaping the European business cycle," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 147, pages 27-52.
    4. Bartoletto, Silvana & Chiarini, Bruno & Marzano, Elisabetta & Piselli, Paolo, 2019. "Business cycles, credit cycles, and asymmetric effects of credit fluctuations: Evidence from Italy for the period of 1861–2013," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Pagan, Adrian, 1999. "Some uses of simulation in econometrics," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 341-349.
    6. Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    7. Michael J. Artis, 2002. "Reflections on the Optimal Currency Area (OCA) criteria in the light of EMU," Working Papers 69, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    8. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2002. "Classical and Modern Business Cycle Measurement: The European Case," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/20, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    9. Renee Fry, 2004. "International demand and liquidity shocks in a SVAR model of the Australian economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 849-863.
    10. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Knowing the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n12, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    11. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2001. "Markov-Switching Procedures for Dating the Euro-Zone Business Cycle," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 339-351.
    12. Alasdair Scott, 2000. "A multivariate unobserved components model of cyclical activity," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    13. Gaston Giordana & Sabbah Gueddoudj, 2016. "Characterising the financial cycle in Luxembourg," BCL working papers 103, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    14. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Dissecting the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.

  45. Adrian Pagan, 1997. "Towards an Understanding of Some Business Cycle Characteristics," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 30(1), pages 1-15, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Mr. Eswar S Prasad, 1999. "Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach," IMF Working Papers 1999/154, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Augustus J. Panton, 2020. "Climate hysteresis and monetary policy," CAMA Working Papers 2020-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
    4. Henry, O.T. & Summers, P.M., 2000. "Australian Economic Growth: Non-Linearities and Internaitonal Influences," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 738, The University of Melbourne.
    5. Adrian Pagan, 2001. "The Getting of Macroeconomic Wisdom," International Economic Association Series, in: Jacques Drèze (ed.), Advances in Macroeconomic Theory, chapter 11, pages 219-235, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Clements, M.C. & Krolzig, H.-M., 2001. "Modelling Business Cycle Features Using Switching Regime Models," Economics Series Working Papers 9958, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. Allan Layton & Anirvan Banerji, 2003. "What is a recession?: A reprise," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(16), pages 1789-1797.
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    1. Alfonso Novales, 2002. "The Role of Simulation Methods in Macroeconomics," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0227, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
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    7. Bernd Görzig, 2000. "Neuberechnung des Produktionspotentials für Branchen des verarbeitenden Gewerbes," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 69(1), pages 90-108.
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  49. P. Kearns & A.R. Pagan, 1993. "Australian Stock Market Volatility: 1875–1987," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(2), pages 163-178, June.
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  50. Adián R. Pagan & Hernán Sabau, 1992. "Consistency tests for heteroskedastic and risk models," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 7(1), pages 3-30.

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    1. Pagan, A.R. & Schwert, G.W., 1989. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," Papers 89-02, Rochester, Business - General.
    2. Lim, G.C., 2005. "Currency risk in excess equity returns: a multi time-varying beta approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 189-207, July.
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    4. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1997. "Answering the Critics: Yes, ARCH Models Do Provide Good Volatility Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 6023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Henry, O.T. & Olekalns, N., 2000. "The Effect of Recessions on the Relationship between Output Variability and Growth," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 745, The University of Melbourne.
    6. Apergis, Nicholas, 2004. "Inflation, output growth, volatility and causality: evidence from panel data and the G7 countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 185-191, May.
    7. Olan T. Henry & Michael McKenzie, 2003. "The Impact of Short Selling on the Price–Volume Relationship: Evidence from Hong Kong," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 869, The University of Melbourne.
    8. Dean, Warren G. & Faff, Robert W. & Loudon, Geoffrey F., 2010. "Asymmetry in return and volatility spillover between equity and bond markets in Australia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 272-289, June.
    9. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
    10. Paul D. McNelis & Carrie K.C. Chan, 2004. "Deflationary Dynamics in Hong Kong: Evidence from Linear and Neural Network Regime Switching Models," Working Papers 212004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

  51. Adrián R. Pagan & Hernán Sabau, 1991. "On the inconsistency of the MLE in certain heteroskedastic regression models," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 6(2), pages 159-172.

    Cited by:

    1. Jones, Charles M. & Lamont, Owen & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 1998. "Macroeconomic news and bond market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 315-337, March.
    2. Adián R. Pagan & Hernán Sabau, 1992. "Consistency tests for heteroskedastic and risk models," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 7(1), pages 3-30.

  52. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  53. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Testing for covariance stationarity in stock market data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 165-170, June.

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    1. Tu, Yundong & Yi, Yanping, 2017. "Forecasting cointegrated nonstationary time series with time-varying variance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 83-98.
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    3. Cornelis A. Los, 2004. "Nonparametric Efficiency Testing of Asian Stock Markets Using Weekly Data," Finance 0409033, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Deng, Ai & Perron, Pierre, 2008. "The Limit Distribution Of The Cusum Of Squares Test Under General Mixing Conditions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 809-822, June.
    5. Jamel Jouini, 2009. "Analysis of structural break models based on the evolutionary spectrum: Monte Carlo study and application," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 91-110.
    6. Cheng, Xu & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2012. "Cointegrating rank selection in models with time-varying variance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 155-165.
    7. M. F. Omran, 1997. "Moment condition failure in stock returns: UK evidence," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 201-206.
    8. Fendel, Ralf & Neumann, Christian, 2021. "Tail risk in the European sovereign bond market during the financial crises: Detecting the influence of the European Central Bank," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    9. Ignacio Mauleon & Javier Perote, 2000. "Testing densities with financial data: an empirical comparison of the Edgeworth-Sargan density to the Student's t," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 225-239.
    10. Ekaterini Tsouma, 2007. "Stock return dynamics and stock market interdependencies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 805-825.
    11. Mauleon, Ignacio, 2003. "Financial densities in emerging markets: an application of the multivariate ES density," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 197-223, June.
    12. Cornelis A. Los, 2004. "Nonparametric Testing of the High-Frequency Efficiency of the 1997 Asian Foreign Exchange Markets," Finance 0409040, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Daniel Bartz & Kerr Hatrick & Christian W. Hesse & Klaus-Robert Muller & Steven Lemm, 2011. "Directional Variance Adjustment: improving covariance estimates for high-dimensional portfolio optimization," Papers 1109.3069, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2012.
    14. Chen, Bin & Song, Zhaogang, 2013. "Testing whether the underlying continuous-time process follows a diffusion: An infinitesimal operator-based approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 83-107.
    15. Ibrahim Ahamada & Jamel Jouini & Mohamed Boutahar, 2004. "Detecting Multiple Breaks in Time Series Covariance Structure: a Nonparametric Approach Based on the Evolutionary Spectral Density," Post-Print halshs-00272867, HAL.
    16. Straetmans, Stefan & Candelon, Bertrand, 2013. "Long-term asset tail risks in developed and emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1832-1844.
    17. Domian, Dale L. & Louton, David A., 1997. "A threshold autoregressive analysis of stock returns and real economic activity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 167-179.
    18. Ahamada Ibrahim, 2003. "Non stationarity characteristics of the S\&P500 returns:An approach based on the evolutionary spectral density," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(32), pages 1-7.
    19. Daniel Bartz & Kerr Hatrick & Christian W Hesse & Klaus-Robert Müller & Steven Lemm, 2013. "Directional Variance Adjustment: Bias Reduction in Covariance Matrices Based on Factor Analysis with an Application to Portfolio Optimization," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(7), pages 1-14, July.
    20. Chen, Bin & Hong, Yongmiao, 2012. "Testing For The Markov Property In Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(1), pages 130-178, February.
    21. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Antonio Rubia, 2010. "The Effects of Additive Outliers and Measurement Errors when Testing for Structural Breaks in Variance," Working Papers w201011, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    22. Heejoon Han & Shen Zhang, 2012. "Non‐stationary non‐parametric volatility model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 15(2), pages 204-225, June.
    23. Candelon, Bertrand & Straetmans, Stefan, 2006. "Testing for multiple regimes in the tail behavior of emerging currency returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1187-1205, November.
    24. Atiq-ur-Rehman, Atiq-ur-Rehman & Zaman, Asad, 2009. "Impact of Model Specification Decisions on Unit Root Tests," MPRA Paper 19963, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Leila Nouira & Ibrahim Ahamada & Jamel Jouini & Alain Nurbel, 2004. "Long-memory and shifts in the unconditional variance in the exchange rate euro/US dollar returns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(9), pages 591-594.
    26. Ibrahim Ahamada & Jamel Jouini & Mohamed Boutahar, 2004. "Detecting Multiple Breaks in Time Series Covariance Structure: a Nonparametric Approach Based on the Evolutionary Spectral Density," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00272867, HAL.
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    1. Streibel, Mariane & Harvey, Andrew, 1993. "Estimation of simultaneous equation models with stochastic trend components," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 263-287.
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    2. Kajal Lahiri & Chuanming Gao, 2001. "A Comparison of Some Recent Bayesian and Classical Procedures for Simultaneous Equation Models with Weak Instruments," Discussion Papers 01-15, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    3. Atkinson, Scott E. & Tsionas, Mike G., 2021. "Generalized estimation of productivity with multiple bad outputs: The importance of materials balance constraints," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 292(3), pages 1165-1186.
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    5. Streibel, Mariane & Harvey, Andrew, 1993. "Estimation of simultaneous equation models with stochastic trend components," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 263-287.
    6. Bekker, Paul A. & Ploeg, Jan van der, 2000. "Instrumental variable estimation based on grouped data," CCSO Working Papers 200009, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
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    11. Tsionas, Mike G., 2016. "Notes on technical efficiency estimation with multiple inputs and outputs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 784-788.
    12. Chuanming Gao & Kajal Lahiri, 2019. "A Comparison of Some Bayesian and Classical Procedures for Simultaneous Equation Models with Weak Instruments," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-28, July.
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    15. David Roodman, 2011. "Fitting fully observed recursive mixed-process models with cmp," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 11(2), pages 159-206, June.
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    17. Jones, Sam & Santos, Ricardo, 2022. "Can information correct optimistic wage expectations? Evidence from Mozambican job-seekers," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    18. Atkinson, Scott E. & Primont, Daniel & Tsionas, Mike G., 2018. "Statistical inference in efficient production with bad inputs and outputs using latent prices and optimal directions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 204(2), pages 131-146.

  75. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-1294, September.

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    1070. Chitra Pandey & Hema Diwan, 2021. "Assessing fertilizer use behaviour for environmental management and sustainability: a quantitative study in agriculturally intensive regions of Uttar Pradesh, India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5822-5845, April.
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    1072. Sonja Đuričin & Isidora Beraha & Olivera Jovanović & Marija Mosurović Ružičić & Marija Lazarević-Moravčević & Mihailo Paunović, 2022. "The Efficiency of National Innovation Policy Programs: The Case of Serbia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-14, July.
    1073. Bakari, Sayef, 2024. "Causality between Domestic Investment and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Argentina," MPRA Paper 121799, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    1074. Kaodui Li & Easmond Baah Nketia & Yusheng Kong & Michael Appiah, 2023. "An Introspective Analysis of Inclusive Growth in Africa, With an Eminence on the Influence of Governance and Financial Development Interaction," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, April.
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  76. Nicholls, D F & Pagan, A R, 1977. "Specification of the Disturbance for Efficient Estimation-An Extended Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(1), pages 211-217, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Miyazaki, Shigetaka & Griffiths, William E., 1984. "The properties of some covariance matrix estimators in linear models with AR(1) errors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 351-356.
    2. Hidalgo, Javier & Schafgans, Marcia M. A., 2017. "Inference without smoothing for large panels with cross-sectional and temporal dependence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87748, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Hidalgo, Javier & Schafgans, Marcia, 2021. "Inference without smoothing for large panels with cross-sectional and temporal dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 125-160.

  77. A. R. Pagan & D. F. Nicholls, 1976. "Exact Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Regression Models with Finite Order Moving Average Errors," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 43(3), pages 383-387.

    Cited by:

    1. Kenneth W Clements & Grace Gao, 2013. "A Multi-Market Approach to Measuring the Cycle," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 13-16, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.

  78. Pagan, Adrian R, 1975. "Optimal Control of Econometric Models with Autocorrelated Disturbance Terms," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(1), pages 258-263, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Johnson, David D. & King, Robert P., 1988. "Optimal Pricing and Inventory Control for a Country Grain Elevator," Staff Papers 257665, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.

  79. Pagan, Adrian R, 1975. "A Note on the Extraction of Components from Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(1), pages 163-168, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Jerry A. Hausman & Mark W. Watson, 1983. "Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present," NBER Working Papers 1133, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Iñaki Bildosola & Pilar Gonzalez & Paz Moral, 2017. "An approach for modelling and forecasting research activity related to an emerging technology," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 112(1), pages 557-572, July.
    3. Christophe Planas & Alessandro Rossi & Gabriele Fiorentini, 2008. "The marginal likelihood of Structural Time Series Models, with application to the euro area and US NAIRU," Working Paper series 21_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    4. Marcel Prokopczuk & Yingying Wu, 2013. "Estimating term structure models with the Kalman filter," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 4, pages 97-113, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Thomas F. Cooley & Barr Rosenberg & Kent D. Wall, 1977. "A Note on Optimal Smoothing for Time Varying Coefficient Problems," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 6, number 4, pages 453-456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. William S. Cleveland & Douglas M. Dunn & Irma J. Terpenning, 1978. "SABL: A Resistant Seasonal Adjustment Procedure With Graphical Methods for Interpretation and Diagnosis," NBER Chapters, in: Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series, pages 201-241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Thomas F. Cooley & Kent D. Wall, 1975. "On the Identification of Time Varying Structures," NBER Working Papers 0085, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
    9. Stefania Mignani & Marcello Pagnini, 2021. "How effective is financial education? Evidence from the Emilia-Romagna region," Working Paper series 21-08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

  80. Nicholls, D F & Pagan, Adrian R & Terrell, R D, 1975. "The Estimation and Use of Models with Moving Average Disturbance Terms: A Survey," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(1), pages 113-134, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Kenneth A. Foster & Anthony Mwanaumo, 1995. "Estimation of dynamic maize supply response in Zambia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 99-107, April.
    2. Choudhury, Askar H. & Power, Simon, 1995. "A new approximate GLS estimator for the linear regression model with ARMA(p, q) disturbances," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 119-127, May.
    3. Carter Richard A. L. & Zellner Arnold, 2004. "The ARAR Error Model for Univariate Time Series and Distributed Lag," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-44, March.
    4. C. R. McKenzie & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Comparing Tests of Autoregressive Versus Moving Average Errors in Regression Models Using Bahadur's Asymptotic Relative Efficiency," ISER Discussion Paper 0537, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    5. Baltagi, Badi H. & Li, Qi, 1995. "Testing AR(1) against MA(1) disturbances in an error component model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 133-151, July.
    6. Richard Carter & Arnold Zellner, 2003. "AR Versus MA Disturbance Terms," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(21), pages 1-3.
    7. Palm, F.C. & Zellner, A., 1978. "Large sample estimation and testing procedures for dynamic equation systems," Serie Research Memoranda 0010, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    8. R. A. L. Carter & A. Zellner, 2002. "The ARAR Error Model for Univariate Time Series and Distributed Lag Models," University of Western Ontario, Departmental Research Report Series 20025, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
    9. David F. Hendry & Ross Williams, 2000. "Distinguished Fellow of the Economic Society of Australia, 1999: Adrian R. Pagan," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(233), pages 113-115, June.

  81. Pagan, Adrian, 1974. "A Generalised Approach to the Treatment of Autocorrelation," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(23), pages 267-280, December.

    Cited by:

    1. van der Leeuw, J.L. & Tigelaar, H.H., 1994. "An asymptotic justification for a modified GLS procedure to estimate ARMA parameters," Other publications TiSEM 01f8dc96-8313-4917-b804-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Beach, Charles M. & Yeo, Stephen, 1979. "Exact Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Regression Equations with a General Stationary Auto-Regressive Disturbance," Queen's Institute for Economic Research Discussion Papers 275148, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    3. van der Leeuw, J.L. & Tigelaar, H.H., 1994. "An asymptotic justification for a modified GLS procedure to estimate ARMA parameters," Research Memorandum FEW 662, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Uk Heo, 1998. "Modeling the Defense-Growth Relationship around the Globe," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 42(5), pages 637-657, October.
    5. Campbell, Rachel & Gardiner, B. & Haszler, Henry, 1980. "On The Hidden Revenue Effects Of Wool Price Stabilisation In Australia: Initial Results," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 24(1), pages 1-15, April.
    6. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Mukhopadhyay, Somnath, 2013. "Border Region Bridge and Air Transport Predictability," MPRA Paper 59583, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Jul 2013.
    7. T. J. Valentine, 1977. "Price Expectations in Australia: An Alternative Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 53(3), pages 390-404, September.
    8. V. B. Hall, 1980. "Excess Demand and ExDectations Influences on Price Changes in Australian Manufacturing Industry," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 56(152), pages 69-81, March.
    9. Michael Funke & Sean Holly, 1992. "The determinants of West German exports of manufactures: An integrated demand and supply approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(3), pages 498-512, September.
    10. L. V. Defris & R. A. Williams, 1979. "The Formation of Consumer Inflationary Expectations in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 55(2), pages 136-148, June.
    11. Thomas M. FULLERTON & Miguel MARTINEZ & Wm. Doyle SMITH & Adam WALKE, 2015. "Inflationary Dynamics in Guatemala," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 436-444, December.
    12. Fisher, Brian S., 1975. "Supply Response In The Wheat-Belt Of South-Eastern Australia: The Impact Of Delivery Quotas On Wheat Plantings," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 19(2), pages 1-13, August.
    13. D.A. Turkington, 1998. "Shifting Matrices and Their Application to Time Series Models in Econometrics," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 98-09, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    14. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & David A Schauer, 2004. "Regional Econometric Assessment of Aggregate Water Consumption Trends," Urban/Regional 0407006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. vdr Leeuw, J.L., 1997. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Exact ARMA Models," Other publications TiSEM a1cdd9b8-93d9-460c-a0c9-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    16. Allen, Roy E. & Perloff, Jeffrey M, 1985. "Alternate bearing in Californian pears and avocados," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt9xf130p0, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    17. Thomas M. Fullerton & Ileana M. Resendez & Adam G. Walke, 2015. "Upward Sloping Demand for a Normal Good? Residential Electricity in Arkansas," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 1065-1072.
    18. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional 0501005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. D. J. Carland & A. R. Pagan, 1979. "A Short‐Run Econometric Model of the Japanese Wool Textile Industry," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 55(4), pages 317-327, December.
    20. Thomas M. Fullerton & Teodulo Soto, 2015. "Oil Shock Impacts on the Borderplex Regional Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 14-26.
    21. Michael G. Kirby, 1981. "An Investigation of the Specification and Stability of the Australian Aggregate Wage Equation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 57(1), pages 35-46, March.
    22. Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr., 1999. "Inflationary pressure determinants in México," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 14(1), pages 33-51.
    23. George Babich & John Goodhew, 1978. "Short Term Econometric Forecasting and Seasonal Adjustment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 54(2), pages 229-236, August.
    24. Fullerton, Thomas M. & Juarez, David A. & Walke, Adam G., 2012. "Residential electricity consumption in Seattle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1693-1699.
    25. W A Razzak, 2002. "Monetary policy and forecasting inflation with and without the output gap," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    26. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Eiichi Araki, 2004. "A Theoretical Model of Industrial Economy Inflationary Dynamics," Macroeconomics 0408007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. K.W. Clements & J. Broadbent & L.W. Johnson & J.C. Taylor, 1981. "Two Short Papers on Holdings of Financial Assets," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 81-17, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    28. Sevda Yaprakli & Fatih Kaplan, 2015. "Re-examining of the Turkish Crude Oil Import Demand with Multi-structural Breaks Analysis in the Long Run Period," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 402-407.
    29. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & White, Katherine & Smith, Wm. Doyle & Walke, Adam G., 2012. "An Empirical Analysis of Halifax Municipal Water Consumption," MPRA Paper 54113, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Mar 2013.
    30. David F. Hendry & Ross Williams, 2000. "Distinguished Fellow of the Economic Society of Australia, 1999: Adrian R. Pagan," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(233), pages 113-115, June.
    31. T. J. Valentine, 1976. "The Demand for Deposits in the Australian Manufacturing Sector," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 52(1), pages 69-81, March.
    32. W A Razzak, 2001. "Money in the era of inflation targeting," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    33. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr & Azucena González Monzón & Adam G. Walke, 2013. "Physical Infrastructure and Economic Growth in El Paso," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 27(4), pages 363-373, November.

  82. Pagan, Adrian, 1973. "Econometric studies of macro and monetary relations : A.A. Powell and R.A. Williams (eds.), (North-Holland Publ. Co., Amsterdam, 1973) viii+358 pp. ($18.75)," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 402-403, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Ian Stewart, 2011. "Ian Stewart in his Own Words," New Directions for Intelligent Government in Canada: Papers in Honour of Ian Stewart, in: Fred Gorbet & Andrew Sharpe (ed.),New Directions for Intelligent Government in Canada: Papers in Honour of Ian Stewart, pages 19-48, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.

  83. Pagan, Adrian, 1973. "Efficient estimation of models with composite disturbance terms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 329-340, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Carl E. Walsh, 1981. "Measurement Error and the Flow of Funds Accounts: Estimates of HouseholdAsset Demand Equations," NBER Working Papers 0732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Chapters

  1. Luis A.V. Catão & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "The Credit Channel and Monetary Transmission in Brazil and Chile: A Structured VAR Approach," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 5, pages 105-144, Central Bank of Chile.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Adrian Pagan, 2001. "The Getting of Macroeconomic Wisdom," International Economic Association Series, in: Jacques Drèze (ed.), Advances in Macroeconomic Theory, chapter 11, pages 219-235, Palgrave Macmillan.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100, Elsevier.

    Cited by:

    1. Baffes, John & Kshirsagar, Varun & Mitchell, Donald, 2015. "What Drives Local Food Prices? Evidence from the Tanzanian Maize Market," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211193, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Alok Bhargava, 2008. "Globalization, Literacy Levels, and Economic Development," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-04, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons & Ralph W. Tryon, 2001. "Output and inflation in the long run," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 241-253.
    4. B. Bhaskara Rao, 2007. "Estimating short and long-run relationships: a guide for the applied economist," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(13), pages 1613-1625.
    5. Franz Wirl, 2009. "Intertemporal monopolistic pricing of non-durables," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 97(2), pages 97-119, June.
    6. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1987. "An analogue model of phase-averaging procedures," International Finance Discussion Papers 303, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Guerrero Santiago & Juárez-Torres Miriam & Sámano Daniel & Kochen Federico & Puigvert Jonathan, 2016. "Price Transmission in Food and Non-Food Product Markets: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2016-18, Banco de México.
    8. Guillaume Chevillon & Alain Hecq & Sébastien Laurent, 2018. "Generating Univariate Fractional Integration within a Large VAR(1)," AMSE Working Papers 1844, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    9. Mohanty, Samarendu & Peterson, E. Wesley F., 1999. "Estimation Of Demand For Wheat By Classes For The United States And The European Union," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 1-11, October.
    10. Bårdsen, Gunnar & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2006. "U.S. natural rate dynamics reconsidered," Memorandum 13/2006, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    11. Guidolin, Massimo & Tam, Yu Man, 2013. "A yield spread perspective on the great financial crisis: Break-point test evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 18-39.
    12. Evans, Mark & Lewis, Andrew C., 2005. "Dynamic metals demand model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 55-69, March.
    13. Gallaway, Michael P. & McDaniel, Christine A. & Rivera, Sandra A., 2003. "Short-run and long-run industry-level estimates of U.S. Armington elasticities," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 49-68, March.
    14. Anita Ghatak, 1998. "Aggregate consumption functions for India: A cointegration analysis under structural changes, 1919-86," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 475-488.
    15. Jose Sanchez-fung, 2005. "Estimating a monetary policy reaction function for the dominican republic," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 563-577.
    16. Dimitrios P Tsomocos & Gunnar Bardsen & Department of Economics & NTNUKjersti-Gro Lindquist & Norges Bank, 2006. "Evaluation of macroeconomic models for financial stability analysis," Economics Series Working Papers 2006-FE-01, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, 2011. "A Simple Test for Spurious Regressions," CREATES Research Papers 2011-15, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    18. Suphannachart, Waleerat & Warr, Peter, 2010. "Total Factor Productivity in Thai Agriculture: Measurement and Determinants," ARE Working Papers 284031, Kasetsart University - Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    19. Sanchez-Fung, Jose R., 2008. "The day-to-day interbank market, volatility, and central bank intervention in a developing economy," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-2, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
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Books

  1. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2016. "The Econometric Analysis of Recurrent Events in Macroeconomics and Finance," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10744.

    Cited by:

    1. Marco Gallegati, 2019. "A system for dating long wave phases in economic development," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 803-822, July.
    2. Kose, M. Ayhan & Sugawara, Naotaka & E. Terrones, Marco, 2020. "Global Recessions," CEPR Discussion Papers 14397, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "A tale of two recession-derivative indicators," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 925-947, August.
    4. Eo, Yunjong & Kim, Chang-Jin, 2012. "Markov-Switching Models with Evolving Regime-Specific Parameters: Are Post-War Booms or Recessions All Alike?," Working Papers 2012-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    5. Ye Lu & Adrian Pagan, 2023. "To Boost or Not to Boost? That is the Question," Working Papers 2023-05, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    6. Barros, Geraldo Sant’Ana de Camargo & Carrara, Aniela Fagundes & Castro, Nicole Rennó & Silva, Adriana Ferreira, 2022. "Agriculture and inflation: Expected and unexpected shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 178-188.
    7. Mariano Kulish & Adrian Pagan, 2021. "Turning point and oscillatory cycles: Concepts, measurement, and use," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 977-1006, September.
    8. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 615-643, August.
    9. Tara M. Sinclair, 2019. "Continuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting," Working Papers 2019-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    10. Maximo Camacho & María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos, 2021. "An Automatic Algorithm to Date the Reference Cycle of the Spanish Economy," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(18), pages 1-17, September.
    11. Maximo Camacho & María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez Loscos, 2022. "A New Approach to Dating the Reference Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 66-81, January.
    12. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, October –.
    13. Hall, Viv B & Thomson, Peter, 2022. "A boosted HP filter for business cycle analysis: evidence from New Zealand’s small open economy," Working Paper Series 21184, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    14. Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Saiz, Lorena & Stoevsky, Grigor & Tóth, Máté & Warmedinger, Thomas & Grigoraș, Veaceslav, 2024. "The euro area business cycle and its drivers," Occasional Paper Series 354, European Central Bank.
    15. Kose, M. Ayhan & Claessens, Stijn, 2017. "Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 12460, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Albers, Thilo Nils Hendrik, 2018. "The prelude and global impact of the Great Depression: Evidence from a new macroeconomic dataset," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 150-163.
    17. Greg Farrell & Esti Kemp, 2020. "Measuring the Financial Cycle in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 123-144, June.
    18. C. Colther & J. L. Rojo & R. Hornero, 2022. "A Wavelet Method for Detecting Turning Points in the Business Cycle," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(2), pages 171-187, July.
    19. Dutra, Tiago Mota & Dias, José Carlos & Teixeira, João C.A., 2022. "Measuring financial cycles: Empirical evidence for Germany, United Kingdom and United States of America," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 599-630.
    20. Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Kenneth Lindsay, 2019. "Modelling and forecasting wind drought," Working Paper Series 18219, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    21. Sean Langcake & Tim Robinson, 2018. "Forecasting the Australian economy with DSGE and BVAR models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 251-267, January.
    22. Any Flore Djoumessi Djoukouo, 2023. "Recessions and recoveries in Central African countries: Lessons from the past," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 1121-1142, August.

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