IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fpr/ifprid/1354.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Co-movement of major commodity price returns: A time-series assessment:

Author

Listed:
  • de Nicola, Francesca
  • De Pace, Pierangelo
  • Hernandez, Manuel A.

Abstract

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the degree of co-movement among the nominal price returns of 11 major energy, agricultural, and food commodities using monthly data between 1970 and 2013. The authors study the extent and the time evolution of unconditional and conditional correlations using a uniform-spacings testing approach, a multivariate dynamic conditional correlation model and a rolling regression procedure.

Suggested Citation

  • de Nicola, Francesca & De Pace, Pierangelo & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2014. "Co-movement of major commodity price returns: A time-series assessment:," IFPRI discussion papers 1354, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1354
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cdm15738.contentdm.oclc.org/utils/getfile/collection/p15738coll2/id/128185/filename/128396.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cornelis Gardebroek & Manuel A. Hernandez & Miguel Robles, 2016. "Market interdependence and volatility transmission among major crops," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(2), pages 141-155, March.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    3. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425, June.
    4. Mr. Ron Alquist & Mr. Olivier Coibion, 2013. "The Comovement in Commodity Prices: Sources and Implications," IMF Working Papers 2013/140, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Zhao, Jieyuan & Goodwin, Barry K., 2011. "Volatility Spillovers in Agricultural Commodity Markets: An Application Involving Implied Volatilities from Options Markets," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103636, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
    7. Rajagopal, Deepak & Zilberman, David, 2007. "Review of environmental, economic and policy aspects of biofuels," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4341, The World Bank.
    8. Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2007. "Estimating and Testing Structural Changes in Multivariate Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(2), pages 459-502, March.
    9. Berna Karali & Gabriel J. Power, 2013. "Short- and Long-Run Determinants of Commodity Price Volatility," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(3), pages 724-738.
    10. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2013. "Primary commodity prices: Co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 16-26.
    11. Engle, Robert F & Sheppard, Kevin K, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5s2218dp, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    12. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    14. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will & Zaman, Hassan, 2012. "Estimating the Short-Run Poverty Impacts of the 2010–11 Surge in Food Prices," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2302-2317.
    15. Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "The myth of co-moving commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    16. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    17. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Scott, Alasdair, 2002. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 277-296, October.
    18. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    19. Beck, Stacie E, 1993. "A Rational Expectations Model of Time Varying Risk Premia in Commodities Futures Markets: Theory and Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(1), pages 149-168, February.
    20. Engle, Robert F & Sheppard, Kevin K, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5s2218dp, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    21. Walter Enders & Matthew T. Holt, 2012. "Sharp Breaks or Smooth Shifts? an Investigation of the Evolution of Primary Commodity Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(3), pages 659-673.
    22. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    23. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
    24. Stacie Beck, 2001. "Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in commodity spot prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 115-132.
    25. Campbell, John Y. (ed.), 2008. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226092119, September.
    26. Ng, Serena, 2006. "Testing Cross-Section Correlation in Panel Data Using Spacings," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 12-23, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lucey, Brian M. & Vigne, Samuel A. & Ballester, Laura & Barbopoulos, Leonidas & Brzeszczynski, Janusz & Carchano, Oscar & Dimic, Nebojsa & Fernandez, Viviana & Gogolin, Fabian & González-Urteaga, Ana , 2018. "Future directions in international financial integration research - A crowdsourced perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 35-49.
    2. Chen, Kuan-Ju & Marsh, Thomas L., 2018. "The Relationship between Biomaterial and Agricultural Commodity Markets," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274111, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Fernandez, Viviana, 2015. "Influence in commodity markets: Measuring co‐movement globally," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 151-164.
    4. Fernandez, Viviana, 2015. "Commodity price excess co-movement from a historical perspective: 1900–2010," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 698-710.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicola, Francesca de & De Pace, Pierangelo & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2016. "Co-movement of major energy, agricultural, and food commodity price returns: A time-series assessment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 28-41.
    2. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2013. "Primary commodity prices: Co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 16-26.
    3. Joseph P Byrne & Ryuta Sakemoto & Bing Xu, 2020. "Commodity price co-movement: heterogeneity and the time-varying impact of fundamentals [Oil price shocks and the stock market: evidence from Japan]," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 47(2), pages 499-528.
    4. Rossen, Anja, 2015. "What are metal prices like? Co-movement, price cycles and long-run trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 255-276.
    5. Cornelis Gardebroek & Manuel A. Hernandez & Miguel Robles, 2016. "Market interdependence and volatility transmission among major crops," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(2), pages 141-155, March.
    6. David Matesanz & Benno Torgler & Germán Dabat & Guillermo J. Ortega, 2014. "Co-movements in commodity prices: a note based on network analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(S1), pages 13-21, November.
    7. Byrne, Joseph P & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2010. "Optimism and commitment: An elementary theory of bargaining and war," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-102, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    8. Makhlouf, Yousef & Kellard, Neil M. & Vinogradov, Dmitri, 2023. "What moves commodity terms-of-trade? Evidence from 178 countries," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    9. Baruník, Jozef & Kočenda, Evžen & Vácha, Lukáš, 2016. "Gold, oil, and stocks: Dynamic correlations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 186-201.
    10. David Matesanz & Benno Torgler & Germán Dabat & Guillermo J. Ortega, 2014. "Co-movements in commodity prices: a note based on network analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(S1), pages 13-21, November.
    11. repec:fpr:export:1344 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Ayesha Sayed & Christo Auret, 2020. "Volatility transmission in the South African white maize futures market," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(1), pages 71-88, March.
    13. Bubák, Vít & Kocenda, Evzen & Zikes, Filip, 2011. "Volatility transmission in emerging European foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2829-2841, November.
    14. Caporin, Massimiliano & McAleer, Michael, 2014. "Robust ranking of multivariate GARCH models by problem dimension," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 172-185.
    15. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Shamsuddin, Abul & Easton, Steve, 2014. "Dynamic correlation analysis of spill-over effects of interest rate risk and return on Australian and US financial firms," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 378-396.
    16. Pelletier, Denis, 2006. "Regime switching for dynamic correlations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 445-473.
    17. Otranto, Edoardo, 2010. "Identifying financial time series with similar dynamic conditional correlation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 1-15, January.
    18. Kuper, Gerard H. & Lestano, 2007. "Dynamic conditional correlation analysis of financial market interdependence: An application to Thailand and Indonesia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 670-684, August.
    19. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2021. "The impact of Euro through time: Exchange rate dynamics under different regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1375-1408, January.
    20. Fernandez-Diaz, Jose M. & Morley, Bruce, 2019. "Interdependence among agricultural commodity markets, macroeconomic factors, crude oil and commodity index," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 174-194.
    21. Marshall, Andrew & Maulana, Tubagus & Tang, Leilei, 2009. "The estimation and determinants of emerging market country risk and the dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 250-259, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1354. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifprius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.