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Measuring and Analyzing the Common and Idiosyncratic Cycles: An Application for Turkish Manufacturing Industry

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  • Emel Siklar
  • Ilyas Siklar

Abstract

This study uses the Butterworth filter to decompose cyclical signals at low and high frequencies in the production data of the manufacturing industry and its sub-sectors. At low frequencies, the production trend exhibits considerable differences among industrial activities while most of the sub-sectors are more sensitive to common cycle than their own dynamics at high frequencies. Moreover, it is predicted that changes in the manufacture of basic metals sub-sector production can be used as a leading indicator for the expansion and contraction periods of the common cycle estimated for the manufacturing industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Emel Siklar & Ilyas Siklar, 2021. "Measuring and Analyzing the Common and Idiosyncratic Cycles: An Application for Turkish Manufacturing Industry," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 11(2), pages 279-300, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:mth:ber888:v:11:y:2021:i:2:p:279-300
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unobservable components; Butterworth filter; Idiosyncratic cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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