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Macroeconomic Consequences of Terms of Trade Episodes, Past and Present

Author

Listed:
  • Tim Atkin

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Mark Caputo

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Tim Robinson

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Hao Wang

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

The early 21st century saw Australia experience its largest and longest terms of trade boom. This paper places this recent boom in a long-run historical context by comparing the current episode with earlier cycles. While similarities exist across most episodes, current macroeconomic policy frameworks and settings are quite different to those of the past. This mitigated the broader macroeconomic consequences of the upswing and as the terms of trade decline may do likewise.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Atkin & Mark Caputo & Tim Robinson & Hao Wang, 2014. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Terms of Trade Episodes, Past and Present," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2014-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2014-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tim Atkin & Mark Caputo & Tim Robinson & Hao Wang, 2014. "Australia after the Terms of Trade Boom," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 55-62, March.
    2. Manalo, Josef & Perera, Dilhan & Rees, Daniel M., 2015. "Exchange rate movements and the Australian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 53-62.
    3. Kenneth Clements & Liang Li, 2017. "Understanding resource investments," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(20), pages 1950-1962, April.
    4. Idrisov, Georgiy (Идрисов, Георгий) & Ponomarev, Yuriy (Пономарев, Юрий) & Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergei (Синельников-Мурылев, Сергей), 2015. "Terms of trade and economic development of modern Russia [Условия Торговли И Экономическое Развитие Современной России]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 7-37.
    5. Omar H. M. N. Bashar, 2015. "The Trickle‐down Effect of the Mining Boom in Australia: Fact or Myth?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(S1), pages 94-108, June.
    6. Kenneth W. Clements & Jiawei Si & Thomas Simpson, 2016. "Understanding New Resource Projects," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(3), pages 584-600, September.
    7. Alexander Ballantyne & Jonathan Hambur & Ivan Roberts & Michelle Wright, 2014. "Financial Reform in Australia and China," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2014-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Kenneth W. Clements & Liang Li, 2014. "Valuing Resource Investments," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 14-27, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    9. Idrisov, Georgy & Ponomarev, Yury & Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergey, 2016. "Terms of trade and Russian economic development," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 279-301.
    10. Jonathan Hambur & Lynne Cockerell & Christopher Potter & Penelope Smith & Michelle Wright, 2015. "Modelling the Australian Dollar," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2015-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodity prices; terms of trade; macroeconomic policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • N17 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Africa; Oceania

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