IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v40y2008i3p333-340.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic hysteresis in hog production

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Hinrichs
  • Oliver Musshoff
  • Martin Odening

Abstract

German hog production only responds in a very limited way to price fluctuations in the pork market. The hog production concentrates on a few regions though it is not bound to special natural conditions such as soil quality. Furthermore, the volume of production does not vary over time. Relatively high market risks, sunk costs and the flexibility of the decision maker to defer investments characterize decision problems in hog production. Thus the real option approach is chosen to explain the inertia in production capacity. By the use of panel data of specialized hog farms from the German Farm Accountancy Data Network, an empirical investment model is estimated. Formally, the model has the structure of a generalized ordered probit model. This approach allows to test for economic hysteresis in the adjustment of hog production capacity. The results confirm that uncertainty and flexibility widen the optimal range of inaction.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Hinrichs & Oliver Musshoff & Martin Odening, 2008. "Economic hysteresis in hog production," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 333-340.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:40:y:2008:i:3:p:333-340
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840500447880
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840500447880
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036840500447880?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yu-Fu Chen & I-Hui Cheng, 2005. "Protection and employment under uncertainty: a real option approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 229-238.
    2. Stephen Pudney & Michael Shields, 2000. "Gender, race, pay and promotion in the British nursing profession: estimation of a generalized ordered probit model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 367-399.
    3. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    4. Schatzki, Todd, 2003. "Options, uncertainty and sunk costs:: an empirical analysis of land use change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 86-105, July.
    5. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    6. Kyösti S. Pietola & Robert J. Myers, 2000. "Investment under Uncertainty and Dynamic Adjustment in the Finnish Pork Industry," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 956-967.
    7. Diansheng Dong & Atanu Saha, 1998. "He came, he saw, (and) he waited: an empirical analysis of inertia in technology adoption," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(7), pages 893-905.
    8. Michael Boehlje, 1992. "Alternative models of structural change in agriculture and related industries," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 219-231.
    9. Wossink, Ada, 2000. "The Failure Of Marketable Permit Systems And Uncertainty Of Environmental Policy: A Switching Regime Model Applied To The Dutch Phosphate Quota Program," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21792, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Bill Provencher, 1997. "Structural Versus Reduced-Form Estimation of Optimal Stopping Problems," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 357-368.
    11. Alberto Moel, 2002. "When Are Real Options Exercised? An Empirical Study of Mine Closings," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 35-64, March.
    12. Adam Maung & Ken Foster, 2002. "Capital Investment under Alternative Marketing Scenarios in the Hog Industry: A Real Option Approach," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 50(3), pages 223-235, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giuliano Curatola & Michael Donadelli & Patrick Gruning & Christoph Meinerding, 2016. "Investment-Specific Shocks, Business Cycles, and Asset Prices," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 36, Bank of Lithuania.
    2. Dillen, Koen & Tollens, Eric & Wesseler, Justus, 2010. "The Barroso Proposal Of Nationalizing Gmapproval: A Look At Ht Sugar Beets Under Changed European Sugar Policy," 14th ICABR Conference, June 16-18, 2010, Ravello, Italy 188086, International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR).
    3. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Investment and Disinvestment in Irrigation Technology – An Experimental Analysis of Farmers’ Decision Behavior –," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124532, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Thiermann, Insa & Schroeer, Daniel & Latacz-Lohmann, Uwe, 2022. "Are German farmers ready for ‘warm restructuring’ of the pig sector?," 96th Annual Conference, April 4-6, 2022, K U Leuven, Belgium 321201, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    5. Thiermann, Insa & Breustedt, Gunnar & Rosenau, Carolin, 2019. "Einfluss der Größe auf die Aufgabe der Tierproduktion – empirische Analyse Milchvieh und Sauen haltender Betriebe in Deutschland," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 68(3), September.
    6. Breustedt, Gunnar & Mees, Martin, 2010. "Growth Of German Dairy Farms Under The Eu Milk Quota," 50th Annual Conference, Braunschweig, Germany, September 29-October 1, 2010 93950, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    7. Niemi, Jarkko K. & Liu, Xing & Pietola, Kyosti, 2011. "Price volatility and return on pig fattening under different price- quantity contract regimes," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114614, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Sangcheol Song, 2014. "Entry mode irreversibility, host market uncertainty, and foreign subsidiary exits," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 455-471, June.
    9. Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Schade, Christian, 2010. "Zum Desinvestitionsverhalten Landwirtschaftlicher Unternehmer: Ergebnisse Einer Experimentellen Untersuchung," 50th Annual Conference, Braunschweig, Germany, September 29-October 1, 2010 93943, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    10. Tubetov, Dulat & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "The comparison of investment behaviors of Kazakhstani and German farmers: An experimental approach," 86th Annual Conference, April 16-18, 2012, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 134770, Agricultural Economics Society.
    11. Lee, Sangjun & Zhao, Jinhua & Thornsbury, Suzanne, 2013. "Extreme Events and Land Use Decisions under Climate Change in Tart Cherry Industry in Michigan," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150568, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Sandri, Serena & Schade, Christian & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin, 2010. "Holding on for too long? An experimental study on inertia in entrepreneurs' and non-entrepreneurs' disinvestment choices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 30-44, October.
    13. Spiegel, Alisa & Severini, Simone & Britz, Wolfgang & Coletta, Attilio, 2020. "Step-by-step development of a model simulating returns on farm from investments: the example of hazelnut plantation in Italy: The example of hazelnut plantation in Italy," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 9(1), April.
    14. Nataliya Zinych & Martin Odening, 2009. "Capital market imperfections in economic transition: empirical evidence from Ukrainian agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(6), pages 677-689, November.
    15. Kramer, Benedikt & Schorr, Anke & Doluschitz, Reiner & Lips, Markus, 2018. "Wahrscheinlichkeit Von Investitionen In Milchviehställe Schweizer Verkehrsmilchbetriebe," 58th Annual Conference, Kiel, Germany, September 12-14, 2018 275845, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    16. Tubetov, Dulat & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Comparison of the Investment Behavior of German and Kazakhstani Farmers: an Experimental Approach," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 122422, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    17. repec:ags:aaea13:150610 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Delbridge, Timothy A., 2013. "Threshold Effects in Transition to Organic Dairy Production," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150554, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Syster C. Maart-Noelck & Oliver Musshoff, 2013. "Investing Today or Tomorrow? An Experimental Approach to Farmers’ Decision Behaviour," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 295-318, June.
    20. Niemi, Jarkko K., 2012. "Designing coordination contracts to support efficient flow-scheduling in pork chain," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 125208, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    21. Maart, Syster Christin & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Sandri, Serena & Schade, Christian, 2011. "PR - Disinvestment Behaviour Of Agricultural Entrepreneurs: Experimental Results (p380-387)," 18th Congress, Methven, New Zealand, 2011 345580, International Farm Management Association.
    22. Huettel, Silke & Narayana, Rashmi & Odening, Martin, 2011. "Measuring dynamic efficiency under uncertainty," Structural Change in Agriculture/Strukturwandel im Agrarsektor (SiAg) Working Papers 129062, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    23. Xianlei Ma & Justus Wesseler & Nico Heerink & Futian Qu, 2013. "Land Tenure Reforms and Land Conservation Investments in China ¨C What Does Real Option Value Theory Tell Us?," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 3, pages 19-33, August.
    24. Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Schade, Christian, 2011. "Closing down the Farm: An Experimental Analysis of Disinvestment Timing," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114375, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    25. Maart, S.C. & Mußhoff, O. & Odening, M. & Schade, C., 2011. "Zum Desinvestitionsverhalten landwirtschaftlicher Unternehmer: Ergebnisse einer experimentellen Unternehmung," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 46, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    2. Plogmann, Jana & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2022. "Farmland sales under returns and price uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    3. Jyh-Bang Jou & Tan (Charlene) Lee, 2011. "Mutually exclusive investment with technical uncertainty," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(30), pages 4723-4728.
    4. Jason P. Brown & Dayton M. Lambert & Raymond J. G. M. Florax, 2013. "The Birth, Death, and Persistence of Firms: Creative Destruction and the Spatial Distribution of U.S. Manufacturing Establishments, 2000–2006," Economic Geography, Clark University, vol. 89(3), pages 203-226, July.
    5. Linnerud, Kristin & Andersson, Ane Marte & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2014. "Investment timing under uncertain renewable energy policy: An empirical study of small hydropower projects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 154-164.
    6. Ryan Kellogg, 2014. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Evidence from Texas Oil Drilling," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1698-1734, June.
    7. Bulan, Laarni & Mayer, Christopher & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2009. "Irreversible investment, real options, and competition: Evidence from real estate development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 237-251, May.
    8. Davis, Graham A. & Cairns, Robert D., 2017. "The odd notion of “reversible investment”," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 172-180.
    9. Luca Corato & Michele Moretto & Sergio Vergalli, 2013. "Land conversion pace under uncertainty and irreversibility: too fast or too slow?," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 45-82, September.
    10. Sødal, Sigbjørn & Koekebakker, Steen & Aadland, Roar, 2008. "Market switching in shipping -- A real option model applied to the valuation of combination carriers," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 183-203, August.
    11. Stefanie Engel & Charles Palmer & Luca Taschini & Simon Urech, 2015. "Conservation Payments under Uncertainty," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 91(1), pages 36-56.
    12. Daniel W. Elfenbein & Anne Marie Knott, 2015. "Time to exit: Rational, behavioral, and organizational delays," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(7), pages 957-975, July.
    13. Gamba, Andrea & Tesser, Matteo, 2009. "Structural estimation of real options models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 798-816, April.
    14. Xian, Hui & Colson, Gregory & Mei, Bin & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2015. "Co-firing coal with wood pellets for U.S. electricity generation: A real options analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 106-116.
    15. Engel, Stefanie & Palmer, Charles & Taschini, Luca & Urech, Simon, 2012. "Cost-effective payments for reducing emissions from deforestation under uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 44837, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Odening, Martin & Musshoff, Oliver & Utesch, Volker, 2004. "Der Wechsel vom konventionellen zum ökologischen Landbau: Eine investitionstheoretische Betrachtung," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 53(06), pages 1-10.
    17. Tsung-Pao Wu & Shu-Bing Liu & Shun-Jen Hsueh, 2016. "The Causal Relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market: A Panel Data Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 109-122, March.
    18. Muehlenbachs, Lucija, 2012. "Testing for Avoidance of Environmental Obligations," RFF Working Paper Series dp-12-12, Resources for the Future.
    19. Linnerud, Kristin & Simonsen, Morten, 2017. "Swedish-Norwegian tradable green certificates: Scheme design flaws and perceived investment barriers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 560-578.
    20. Lee, Tan, 2004. "Determinants of the foreign equity share of international joint ventures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2261-2275, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:40:y:2008:i:3:p:333-340. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.