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Testing for Neglected Nonlinearity in Long Memory Models

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  • George Kapetanios

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

Abstract

Interest in the interface of nonstationarity and nonlinearity has been increasing in the econometric literature. The motivation for this development maybe be traced to the perceived possibility that processes following nonlinear models maybe mistakenly taken to be unit root or long-memory nonstationary. This paper considers the possibility that processes may exhibit both long memory and nonlinearity. We test against the possibility that the process ut in the model (1-L)dyt = ut is nonlinear. We do not assume a particular parametric form for the nonlinear process but construct a pure significance test. Clearly, such a test could be straightforwardly constructed if d were known. Unfortunately, if a linear model is assumed while estimating d the power of the test will be reduced. We propose new more powerful tests for this problem. We present Monte Carlo evidence on the performance of the new tests and apply them to Yen real exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • George Kapetanios, 2002. "Testing for Neglected Nonlinearity in Long Memory Models," Working Papers 474, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:474
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. George Kapetanios, 2003. "Threshold models for trended time series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 687-707, November.
    2. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1993. "Nonlinear Dynamic Structures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 871-907, July.
    3. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    4. Gozalo, Pedro L., 1993. "A Consistent Model Specification Test for Nonparametric Estimation of Regression Function Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 451-477, June.
    5. Pagan,Adrian & Ullah,Aman, 1999. "Nonparametric Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521355643, January.
    6. Lavergne, Pascal & Vuong, Quang H, 1996. "Nonparametric Selection of Regressors: The Nonnested Case," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 207-219, January.
    7. Tweedie, Richard L., 1975. "Sufficient conditions for ergodicity and recurrence of Markov chains on a general state space," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 385-403, October.
    8. Chortareas, Georgios E. & Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol, 2002. "Nonlinear mean reversion in real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 411-417, November.
    9. P. Lavergne & Q.H. Vuong, 1996. "Nonparametric selection of regressors : the nonnested case [[Sélection non paramétrique de régresseurs : le cas de régressions non emboîtées]]," Post-Print hal-02689500, HAL.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Smallwood Aaron D, 2005. "Joint Tests for Non-linearity and Long Memory: The Case of Purchasing Power Parity," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-30, June.
    2. Aaron Smallwood, 2004. "Joint Tests for Long Memory and Non-linearity: The Case of Purchasing Power Parity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 23, Society for Computational Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long memory; Nonlinearity; Neural networks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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