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Modeling non performing loans probability in the commercial banking system: efficiency and effectiveness related to credit risk in Italy

Author

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  • Bernardo Maggi
  • Marco Guida

    (Department of Economics, Sapienza University of Rome)

Abstract

In this paper we model the effect of the non performing loans on the cost structure of the commercial banking system. With this aim, we comment on an increase in the non performing loans by studying the consequences of such a change on the cost function and compute the probability of failure of maintaining a performing loan as such. In so doing we are convinced that geography does matter and evaluate the risk propensity of the bank towards the nonperforming loans accordingly. We finally stress that traditional efficiency indicators of cost elasticity do not fit properly with such a problem and propose a measure based on the costs for managing and monitoring the loans which, according to the related density function, will reveal effectively as non performing.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernardo Maggi & Marco Guida, 2009. "Modeling non performing loans probability in the commercial banking system: efficiency and effectiveness related to credit risk in Italy," Working Papers - Dipartimento di Economia 1, Dipartimento di Economia, Sapienza University of Rome, revised 2009.
    • Handle: RePEc:des:wpaper:1
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    Cited by:

    1. HOUBENOVA-DELISIVKOVA, Tatiana, 2014. "Banks’ Strategies Towards Non-Performing Loans In Bulgaria: Problems, Challenges Of The Regulation And Policies Alternatives," Journal of Financial and Monetary Economics, Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 1(1), pages 168-179.
    2. Marco Causi & Andrea Baldini, 2018. "Determinants Of Loan And Bad Loan Dynamics: Evidence From Italy," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' o232, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    3. Elisa Fusco & Bernardo Maggi, 2016. "Bank Financial world crisis: Inefficiencies and Responsibilities," DSS Empirical Economics and Econometrics Working Papers Series 2016/2, Centre for Empirical Economics and Econometrics, Department of Statistics, "Sapienza" University of Rome.
    4. Elisa Fusco & Bernardo Maggi, 2022. "Computing nonperforming loan prices in banking efficiency analysis," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-23, January.
    5. Biswajit PATRA & Puja PADHI, 2016. "Determinants of nonperforming assets-bank-specific and macroeconomic factors: A panel data analysis of different group of commercial banks operating in India," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 215-236, Winter.
    6. Bilal Mehmood & Haider Mahmood & Raisa Shabbir Ahmed, 2014. "Macro-Financial Covariates of Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) in Pakistani Commercial Banks: A Reexamination Using GMM Estimator," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 2(11), pages 443-448, November.
    7. Elisabetta Mafrolla & Viola Nobili, 2017. "Discretionary Accruals in Italian Private Firms and Non-Linear Bank Loan Granting," FINANCIAL REPORTING, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2017(1), pages 83-99.
    8. Giorgio Calcagnini & Rebel Cole & Germana Giombini & Giuseppe Travaglini, 2019. "Bank Loan Deterioration: Is It All Fault of the Crisis?," Working Papers 1907, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2019.
    9. Bhattacharya, Mita & Inekwe, John Nkwoma & Valenzuela, Maria Rebecca, 2020. "Credit risk and financial integration: An application of network analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. Tsionas, Mike G. & Andrikopoulos, Athanasios, 2020. "On a High-Dimensional Model Representation method based on Copulas," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(3), pages 967-979.
    11. Biswajit PATRA & Puja PADHI, 2016. "Determinants of nonperforming assets-bank-specific and macroeconomic factors: A panel data analysis of different group of commercial banks operating in India," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 215-236, Winter.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non performing loans probability; Bank management; Cost function; Efficiency and effectiveness indicators; Flexible forms.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • L23 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Organization of Production

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