IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbb/reswpp/200704-24.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing the Gap between Observed and Perceived Inflation in the Euro Area : Is the Credibility of the HICP at Stake ?

Author

Listed:
  • Luc Aucremanne

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

  • Marianne Collin

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

  • Thomas Stragier

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

Abstract

We find strong econometric support for a break in the relationship between perceived and HICP inflation in the euro area, triggered by the introduction of euro notes and coins in January 2002. The break is fairly homogeneous across individuals with different socio-economic characteristics. We found no support for the thesis according to which perceptions are systematically formed by frequently purchased products. A similar break is found when national CPIs instead of HICPs are used as benchmarks. The role of the non-inclusion of owner-occupied housing in the HICP was negligible. Therefore the credibility of the HICP per se is not at stake.

Suggested Citation

  • Luc Aucremanne & Marianne Collin & Thomas Stragier, 2007. "Assessing the Gap between Observed and Perceived Inflation in the Euro Area : Is the Credibility of the HICP at Stake ?," Working Paper Research 112, National Bank of Belgium.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200704-24
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nbb.be/doc/ts/publications/wp/wp112en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bart Hobijn & Federico Ravenna & Andrea Tambalotti, 2006. "Menu Costs at Work: Restaurant Prices and the Introduction of the Euro," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 1103-1131.
    2. Paolo Giovane & Roberto Sabbatini, 2008. "Perceived and measured inflation after the launch of the euro: explaining the gap in Italy," Springer Books, in: Paolo Giovane & Roberto Sabbatini (ed.), The Euro, Inflation and Consumer’s Perceptions, chapter 1, pages 13-49, Springer.
    3. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1991. "Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 1039-1061.
    4. Johannes Hoffmann & Hans-Albert Leifer & Andreas Lorenz, 2006. "Index of Perceived Inflation or EU Consumer Surveys?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 41(3), pages 142-150, May.
    5. Wioletta Dziuda & Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2009. "The Euro Changeover and Its Effects on Price Transparency and Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 101-129, February.
    6. Lippi, Francesco & Angelini, Paolo, 2005. "Did Inflation Really Soar After the Euro Cash Changeover? Indirect Evidence from ATM Withdrawals," CEPR Discussion Papers 4950, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Luc Aucremann & David Cornille, 2001. "Attractive prices and euro-rounding effects on inflation," Working Paper Document 17, National Bank of Belgium.
    9. Ignazio Angeloni & Luc Aucremanne & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2006. "Price setting and inflation persistence: did EMU matter? [‘One market, one money, one price? Price dispersion in the European Union’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(46), pages 354-387.
    10. Brachinger, Hans Wolfgang, 2006. "Euro or “Teuro”?: The Euro-induced Perceived Inflation in Germany," DQE Working Papers 5, Department of Quantitative Economics, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    11. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    12. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    13. Hoffmann, Johannes & Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2006. "Consumer price adjustment under the microscope: Germany in a period of low inflation," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,16, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Eugenio Gaiotti & Francesco Lippi, 2004. "Pricing Behavior and the Introduction of the Euro: Evidence from a Panel of Restaurants in Italy," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 63(3-4), pages 491-526, December.
    15. Aucremanne, L. & Cornille, D., 2001. "Attractive Prices and Euro-Rounding Effects on Inflation," Papers 17, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
    16. repec:bla:econom:v:42:y:1975:i:166:p:123-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2008:i:018 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. I. De Greef & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2009. "The National Bank of Belgium, Research Department’s new business survey indicator," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 31-51, June.
    3. Nickel, Christiane & Fröhling, Annette & Álvarez, Luis J. & Willeke, Caroline & Zevi, Giordano & Osbat, Chiara & Ganoulis, Ioannis & Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Peronaci, Romana & Hahn, Elke & Beka, 2021. "Inflation measurement and its assessment in the ECB’s monetary policy strategy review," Occasional Paper Series 265, European Central Bank.
    4. Ivo J.M. Arnold & Jan J.G. Lemmen, 2008. "Inflation Expectations and Inflation Uncertainty in the Eurozone: Evidence from Survey Data," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(2), pages 325-346, July.
    5. Ewa Stanisławska, 2019. "Consumers’ Perception of Inflation in Inflationary and Deflationary Environment," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(1), pages 41-71, April.
    6. Jakub Rybacki & Tamara Bińczak & Filip Kaczmarek, 2018. "Is HICP really harmonized? Problems with quality adjustments and new products," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 53, pages 97-116.
    7. Hayo, Bernd & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2023. "Measuring Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: The Effect of Guided vs Non-Guided Inflation Questions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. repec:awi:wpaper:0458 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Michael Ehrmann, 2011. "Inflation Developments and Perceptions after the Euro Cash Changeover," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(1), pages 33-58, February.
    10. Thomas Maag, 2009. "On the accuracy of the probability method for quantifying beliefs about inflation," KOF Working papers 09-230, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    11. Krystian Mucha, 2010. "Czynniki wyjaśniające zjawisko luki percepcji wśród konsumentów w okresie przyjmowania euro," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1-2, pages 67-87.
    12. Paolo Del Giovane & Silvia Fabiani & Roberto Sabbatini, 2008. "What�s behind �inflation perceptions�? A survey-based analysis of Italian consumers," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 655, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Lena Vogel & Jan-Oliver Menz & Ulrich Fritsche, 2009. "Prospect Theory and Inflation Perceptions - An Empirical Assessment," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200903, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    14. Stefaan Ide & Jef Boeckx & David Cornille, 2009. "Deflation, a demon from the distant past or a real danger now ?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 7-31, September.
    15. Svatopluk Kapounek & Lubor Lacina, 2011. "Inflation Perceptions and Anticipations in the Old Eurozone Member States," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(2), pages 120-139.
    16. Yusuke Takahashi & Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2022. "Households' Perceived Inflation and CPI Inflation: the Case of Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-1, Bank of Japan.
    17. Festic, Mejra & Krizanic, France, 2011. "The Introduction of the Common Currency in Slovenia," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 88-105, March.
    18. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah Lein, 2010. "The Euro Cash Changeover, Inflation Perceptions and the Media," KOF Working papers 10-254, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    19. Stix, Helmut, 2009. "Perceived inflation and the euro: Evidence from an Austrian survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 547-561, December.
    20. Pedro Pires Ribeiro & José Dias Curto, 2018. "How do zero-coupon inflation swaps predict inflation rates in the euro area? Evidence of efficiency and accuracy on 1-year contracts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1451-1475, June.
    21. D. Cornille & T. Stragier, 2007. "The euro, five years later : what has happened to prices ?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 7-27, September.
    22. Valentin Jouvanceau, 2021. "The Effect of the Euro Changeover on Prices: Evidence from Lithuania," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 93, Bank of Lithuania.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Valentin Jouvanceau, 2021. "The Effect of the Euro Changeover on Prices: Evidence from Lithuania," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 93, Bank of Lithuania.
    2. Lena Dr䧥r & Jan-Oliver Menz & Ulrich Fritsche, 2014. "Perceived inflation under loss aversion," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 282-293, January.
    3. D. Cornille & T. Stragier, 2007. "The euro, five years later : what has happened to prices ?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 7-27, September.
    4. Stix, Helmut, 2009. "Perceived inflation and the euro: Evidence from an Austrian survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 547-561, December.
    5. Jaanika Meriküll & Tairi Rõõm, 2015. "One Currency, One Price? Euro Changeover-Related Inflation in Estonia," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 822-839, July.
    6. Paolo Giovane & Roberto Sabbatini, 2008. "Perceived and measured inflation after the launch of the euro: explaining the gap in Italy," Springer Books, in: Paolo Giovane & Roberto Sabbatini (ed.), The Euro, Inflation and Consumer’s Perceptions, chapter 1, pages 13-49, Springer.
    7. Nicoletta Berardi & Thomas Eife & Erwan Gautier, 2014. "Optimal price setting during a currency changeover: theory and evidence from french restaurants," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(23), pages 2766-2782, August.
    8. Wioletta Dziuda & Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2009. "The Euro Changeover and Its Effects on Price Transparency and Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 101-129, February.
    9. Krystian Mucha, 2010. "Czynniki wyjaśniające zjawisko luki percepcji wśród konsumentów w okresie przyjmowania euro," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1-2, pages 67-87.
    10. Lena Vogel & Jan-Oliver Menz & Ulrich Fritsche, 2009. "Prospect Theory and Inflation Perceptions - An Empirical Assessment," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200903, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    11. Helmut Jungermann & Hans Brachinger & Julia Belting & Katarzyna Grinberg & Elisabeth Zacharias, 2007. "The Euro Changeover and the Factors Influencing Perceived Inflation," Journal of Consumer Policy, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 405-419, December.
    12. Brachinger, Hans Wolfgang, 2008. "A new index of perceived inflation: Assumptions, method, and application to Germany," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 433-457, August.
    13. Ehrmann, Michael, 2006. "Rational inattention, inflation developments and perceptions after the euro cash changeover," Working Paper Series 588, European Central Bank.
    14. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah Lein, 2010. "The Euro Cash Changeover, Inflation Perceptions and the Media," KOF Working papers 10-254, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    15. Fabrizio Adriani & Giancarlo Marini & Pasquale Scaramozzino, 2009. "The Inflationary Consequences of a Currency Changeover on the Catering Sector: Evidence from the Michelin Red Guide," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 111-133, February.
    16. Wilman-Santiago Ochoa-Moreno & Byron Alejandro Quito & Carlos Andrés Moreno-Hurtado, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment and Environmental Quality: Revisiting the EKC in Latin American Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.
    17. Sarah M. Lein & Thomas Maag, 2011. "The Formation Of Inflation Perceptions: Some Empirical Facts For European Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(2), pages 155-188, May.
    18. Festic, Mejra & Krizanic, France, 2011. "The Introduction of the Common Currency in Slovenia," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 88-105, March.
    19. Marco Ercolani, 2010. "Transitional price rises with the adoption of the euro: aggregate and disaggregate sector evidence," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 137-157.
    20. Lunn, Pete & Duffy, David, 2010. "The Euro Through the Looking-Glass: Perceived Inflation Following the 2002 Currency Changeover," Papers WP338, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; perceived inflation; panel unit roots tests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200704-24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bnbgvbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.