IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/apltrx/0175.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The role of the timeline in Granger causality test in the presence of daily data non-synchronism

Author

Listed:
  • Grigoryev, Ruslan

    (Kazan State Power Engineering University, Kazan, Russia)

  • Jaffry, Shabbar

    (University of Portsmouth, UK)

  • Marchenko, German

    (Kazan State Power Engineering University, Kazan, Russia)

Abstract

The factor of the earlier/later closing market, which appears in pairs of time series with non-synchronism problem exposure, may predetermine the results of the Granger causality test conducted on classic form. The shift in GMT timeline reverses the exposure of the market to the factor of earlier/later closing market, and may change the results of Granger causality test conducted on classic form. Verification of the given assumption on empirical data demonstrated that the US market, having moved from the later closing market to the earlier closing market condition (factor), started to show the behavior similar to other earlier closing markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Grigoryev, Ruslan & Jaffry, Shabbar & Marchenko, German, 2012. "The role of the timeline in Granger causality test in the presence of daily data non-synchronism," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 27(3), pages 3-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0175
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pe.cemi.rssi.ru/pe_2012_3_03-19.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ezequiel Uriel Jiménez & Javier Quesada Ibañez & Amado Peiró, 1995. "Temporal Links Betvveen Price Indices Of Stock Markets With Overlapping Business Hours," Working Papers. Serie EC 1995-02, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    2. Grigoryev, Ruslan & Jaffry, Shabbar & Marchenko, German, 2012. "Investigation of the consequences of ignoring daily data non-synchronism in cross-market linkages: BRIC and developed countries," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 26(2), pages 92-112.
    3. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-1310, November.
    4. A. G. Malliaris & Jorge L. Urrutia, 2005. "The International Crash of October 1987: Causality Tests," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Economic Uncertainty, Instabilities And Asset Bubbles Selected Essays, chapter 16, pages 251-262, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Bessler, David A. & Yang, Jian, 2003. "The structure of interdependence in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 261-287, April.
    6. Gebka, Bartosz & Serwa, Dobromil, 2007. "Intra- and inter-regional spillovers between emerging capital markets around the world," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 203-221, June.
    7. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    8. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    9. Singh, Priyanka & Kumar, Brajesh & Pandey, Ajay, 2010. "Price and volatility spillovers across North American, European and Asian stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 55-64, January.
    10. Eun, Cheol S. & Shim, Sangdal, 1989. "International Transmission of Stock Market Movements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 241-256, June.
    11. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    12. George M. von Furstenberg & Bang Nam Jeon, 1989. "International Stock Price Movements: Links and Messages," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 125-180.
    13. Ø. Gjerde & F. Sættem, 1995. "Linkages among European and world stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 165-179.
    14. Ezequiel Uriel Jiménez & Javier Quesada Ibáñez & Amado Peiró Giménez, 1993. "Transmission Of Information Between Stock Markets," Working Papers. Serie EC 1993-07, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    15. Dimitris Balios & Manolis Xanthakis, 2003. "International interdependence and dynamic linkages between developed stock markets," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 1(1), pages 105-130.
    16. Agmon, Tamir, 1972. "The Relations Among Equity Markets: A Study of Share Price Co-Movements in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany and Japan," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 839-855, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Григорьев Р.А., 2019. "Одновременные Эффекты Несинхронных Временных Рядов: Проблемы Var-Модели," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 55(2), pages 118-129, апрель.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Makushkin, Mikhail & Lapshin, Victor, 2020. "Modelling tail dependencies between Russian and foreign stock markets: Application for market risk valuation," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 57, pages 30-52.
    4. Korhonen, Iikka & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2013. "What determines stock market behavior in Russia and other emerging countries?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Grigoryev, Ruslan & Jaffry, Shabbar & Marchenko, German, 2012. "Investigation of the consequences of ignoring daily data non-synchronism in cross-market linkages: BRIC and developed countries," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 26(2), pages 92-112.
    2. Григорьев Р.А., 2019. "Одновременные Эффекты Несинхронных Временных Рядов: Проблемы Var-Модели," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 55(2), pages 118-129, апрель.
    3. Shawky, Hany A. & Kuenzel, Rolf & Mikhail, Azmi D., 1997. "International portfolio diversification: a synthesis and an update," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 303-327, December.
    4. Hassan, M. Kabir & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1996. "Short-run and long-run dynamic linkages among international stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 387-405.
    5. Koulakiotis, Athanasios & Babalos, Vassilios & Papasyriopoulos, Nicholas, 2016. "Financial crisis, liquidity and dynamic linkages between large and small stocks: Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 46-62.
    6. Joseph Friedman & Yochanan Shachmurove, "undated". ""Using Vector Autoregression Models to Analyze the Behavior of the European Community Stock Markets''," CARESS Working Papres 97-04, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
    7. Friedman, Joseph & Shachmurove, Yochanan, 1997. "Co-movements of major European community stock markets: A vector autoregression analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 257-277.
    8. Gagnon, Louis & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2006. "Price and Volatility Transmission across Borders," Working Paper Series 2006-5, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    9. Yang, Jian & Bessler, David A., 2008. "Contagion around the October 1987 stock market crash," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 291-310, January.
    10. Liow, Kim Hiang & Song, Jeongseop, 2020. "Dynamic interdependence of ASEAN5 with G5 stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    11. Mukherjee, Kedar nath & Mishra, Ram Kumar, 2010. "Stock market integration and volatility spillover: India and its major Asian counterparts," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 235-251, June.
    12. Lee, Bong-Soo & Rui, Oliver M., 2002. "The dynamic relationship between stock returns and trading volume: Domestic and cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 51-78, January.
    13. Climent, Francisco & Meneu, Vicente, 2003. "Has 1997 Asian crisis increased information flows between international markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 111-143.
    14. Nafeesa Yunus & Peggy Swanson, 2007. "Modelling Linkages between US and Asia‐Pacific Securitized Property Markets," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 95-122.
    15. Tse, Yiuman & Lee, Tae-Hwy & Booth, G. Geoffrey, 1996. "The international transmission of information in Eurodollar futures markets: a continuously trading market hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 447-465, June.
    16. Suk-Joong Kim & Fari Moshirian & Eliza Wu, 2018. "Dynamic Stock Market Integration Driven by the European Monetary Union: An Empirical Analysis," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 10, pages 305-368, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Lee, Cheng F & Rui, Oliver M, 2000. "Does Trading Volume Contain Information to Predict Stock Returns? Evidence from China's Stock Markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 341-360, June.
    18. Anoruo, Emmanuel & Ramchander, Sanjay & Thiewes, Harold F., 2002. "International linkage of interest rates: Evidence from the emerging economies of Asia," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 217-235.
    19. Long, Wen & Guo, Ying & Wang, Ying, 2021. "Information spillover features in global financial markets: A systematic analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    20. Carl Bonham & Richard Cohen & Shigeyuki Abe, 2006. "The Rationality and Heterogeneity of Survey Forecasts of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate: A Reexamination," Working Papers 200611, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    interdependence; cross-market linkages; spillover; non-synchronism; synchronisation; asynchronism; comovement; Granger causality; GMT timeline; contemporaneous causality; instantaneous causality.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F39 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0175. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anatoly Peresetsky (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://appliedeconometrics.cemi.rssi.ru/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.