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Drought, Climate Change, and Dryland Wheat Yield Response: An Econometric Approach

Author

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  • Samira Shayanmehr

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad 9177948974, Iran)

  • Shida Rastegari Henneberry

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK 74078, USA)

  • Mahmood Sabouhi Sabouni

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad 9177948974, Iran)

  • Naser Shahnoushi Foroushani

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad 9177948974, Iran)

Abstract

Agriculture has been identified as one of the most vulnerable sectors affected by climate change. In the present study, we investigate the impact of climatic change on dryland wheat yield in the northwest of Iran for the future time horizon of 2041–2070. The Just and Pope production function is applied to assess the impact of climate change on dryland wheat yield and yield risk for the period of 1991–2016. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is used to generate climate parameters from General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs. The results show that minimum temperature is negatively related to average yield in the linear model while the relationship is positive in the non-linear model. An increase in precipitation increases the mean yield in either model. The maximum temperature has a positive effect on the mean yield in the linear model, while this impact is negative in the non-linear model. Drought has an adverse impact on yield levels in both models. The results also indicate that maximum temperature, precipitation, and drought are positively related to yield variability, but minimum temperature is negatively associated with yield variability. The findings also reveal that yield variability is expected to increase in response to future climate scenarios. Given these impacts of temperature on rain-fed wheat crop and its increasing vulnerability to climatic change, policy-makers should support research into and development of wheat varieties that are resistant to temperature variations.

Suggested Citation

  • Samira Shayanmehr & Shida Rastegari Henneberry & Mahmood Sabouhi Sabouni & Naser Shahnoushi Foroushani, 2020. "Drought, Climate Change, and Dryland Wheat Yield Response: An Econometric Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-18, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:14:p:5264-:d:387683
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Khan, Aftab & Wang, Chao, 2024. "Exploring the consequence of ecological and agronomic determinants on wheat production instabilities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan: Perspectives from dynamic autoregressive distributed lag analysis," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
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