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Clustering regional business cycles

Author

Listed:
  • M. D. Gadea-Rivas

    (UNIVERSITY OF ZARAGOZA)

  • Ana Gómez-Loscos

    (Banco de España)

  • Eduardo Bandrés

    (UNIVERSITY OF ZARAGOZA)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to show the usefulness of Finite Mixture Markov Models (FMMMs) for regional analysis. FMMMs combine clustering techniques and Markov Switching models, providing a powerful methodological framework to jointly obtain business cycle datings and clusters of regions that share similar business cycle characteristics. An illustration with European regional data shows the sound performance of the proposed method.

Suggested Citation

  • M. D. Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Eduardo Bandrés, 2017. "Clustering regional business cycles," Working Papers 1744, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1744
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eduardo Bandrés & María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos, 2017. "Regional business cycles across europe," Occasional Papers 1702, Banco de España.
    2. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark, 2008. "The Evolution of National and Regional Factors in U.S. Housing Construction," Scholarly Articles 28468706, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    3. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2006. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1687-1706.
    4. Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
    5. Gadea, María Dolores & Gomez-Loscos, Ana & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 2017. "Dissecting US recoveries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 59-63.
    6. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    7. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
    8. Ramajo, Julián & Márquez, Miguel A. & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D. & Salinas, María M., 2008. "Spatial heterogeneity and interregional spillovers in the European Union: Do cohesion policies encourage convergence across regions?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 551-567, April.
    9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Indicators for Dating Business Cycles: Cross-History Selection and Comparisons," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 16-19, May.
    10. Fruhwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia & Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2008. "Model-Based Clustering of Multiple Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 78-89, January.
    11. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2010. "Dating and forecasting turning points by Bayesian clustering with dynamic structure: a suggestion with an application to Austrian data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 309-344.
    13. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
    14. María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "The evolution of regional economic interlinkages in Europe," Working Papers 1705, Banco de España.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ana Gómez-Loscos & M. Dolores Gadea & Eduardo Bandres, 2020. "Business cycle patterns in European regions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2639-2661, December.
    2. Wang, Xiaoyu & Sun, Yanlin & Peng, Bin, 2023. "Industrial linkage and clustered regional business cycles in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 59-72.
    3. Gadea-Rivas, María Dolores & Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "Increasing linkages among European regions. The role of sectoral composition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 222-243.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; clusters; regions; finite mixture Markov models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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