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Financial instability and the short-term dynamics of volatility expectations

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  • Nabil Maghrebi
  • Mark J. Holmes
  • Kosuke Oya

Abstract

This study provides new evidence of nonlinearities in the dynamics of volatility expectations during financial crises using Markov regime-switching models of model-free volatility indices. The regimes of changes in implied volatility in international financial markets are defined as function of market sentiment and a realignment process following forecast errors consistent with rational expectations. The results indicate that market returns and changes in forecast errors have indeed the potential of influencing the formation of volatility expectations. But the main force driving the dynamics of volatility expectations during periods of financial instability lies rather in the correlation with returns, reflecting market sentiment. The insignificance of the realignment process may be reflective of consensus beliefs that past information does not provide useful guidance during financial crises. It is forward-looking macroeconomic information and contemporaneous price movements that are more likely to shape the dynamics of volatility expectations.

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  • Nabil Maghrebi & Mark J. Holmes & Kosuke Oya, 2014. "Financial instability and the short-term dynamics of volatility expectations," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 377-395, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:24:y:2014:i:6:p:377-395
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2014.881966
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    3. Mesias Alfeus & Ludger Overbeck, 2018. "Regime Switching Rough Heston Model," Research Paper Series 387, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Hiroyuki Okawa, 2023. "Markov-Regime Switches in Oil Markets: The Fear Factor Dynamics," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-20, January.

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