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A New Approach to Infer Changes in the Synchronization of Business Cycle Phases

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  • Danilo Leiva-Leon

Abstract

This paper proposes a Markov-switching framework to endogenously identify the following: (1) regimes where economies synchronously enter recessionary and expansionary phases; and (2) regimes where economies are unsynchronized, essentially following independent business cycles. The reliability of the framework to track changes in synchronization is corroborated with Monte Carlo experiments. An application to the case of U.S. states reports substantial changes over time in the cyclical affiliation patterns of states. Moreover, a network analysis discloses a change in the propagation pattern of aggregate contractionary shocks across states, suggesting that regional economies in the United States have become more interdependent since the early 1990s.

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  • Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "A New Approach to Infer Changes in the Synchronization of Business Cycle Phases," Staff Working Papers 14-38, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:14-38
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    Cited by:

    1. Ductor, Lorenzo & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Dynamics of global business cycle interdependence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 110-127.
    2. Guérin, Pierre & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2017. "Model averaging in Markov-switching models: Predicting national recessions with regional data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 45-49.
    3. Camacho, Maximo & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "The Propagation Of Industrial Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 144-177, January.
    4. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Enrica De Cian & Malcolm Mistry & Anthony Osuntuyi, 2020. "The impact of Climate on Economic and Financial Cycles: A Markov-switching Panel Approach," Papers 2012.14693, arXiv.org.
    5. Maximo Camacho & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2016. "Country Shocks, Monetary Policy Expectations and ECB Decisions. A Dynamic Non-linear Approach," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 283-316, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    6. Agudze, Komla M. & Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2022. "Markov switching panel with endogenous synchronization effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 281-298.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Econometric and statistical methods; Regional economic developments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics

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