IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/rqfnac/v10y1998i2p193-206.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Common Stochastic Trends among Asian Currencies: Evidence for Japan, ASEANs, and the Asian Tigers

Author

Listed:
  • Aggarwal, Raj
  • Mougoue, Mbodja

Abstract

This study documents that daily changes in Asian exchange rates are significantly non-normal, serially correlated, non-stationary, and have unit roots. Further, accounting for these time series properties and using a longer time horizon than other similar studies of exchange rates, this study also documents cointegration between the Japanese Yen and two sets of Asian currencies, i.e., currencies of the "Tigers," Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan; and currencies of the ASEANs, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore. These findings of cointegration among Asian exchange rates are is contrast to the findings for the major currencies, and are evidence of nascent Yen blocs in Asia. The results presented here have important implications for understanding Asian financial integration and the international tale of the Japanese yen and should be useful for developing asset allocation, currency overlay, value as risk (VAR), and hedging strategies for investments in these often illiquid Asian currencies. Copyright 1998 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Aggarwal, Raj & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1998. "Common Stochastic Trends among Asian Currencies: Evidence for Japan, ASEANs, and the Asian Tigers," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 193-206, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:10:y:1998:i:2:p:193-206
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://journals.kluweronline.com/issn/0924-865X/contents
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 571-581, December.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Kim, Duk-Choong, 1992. "Open Regionalism in the Pacific: A World of Trading Blocs?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 79-83, May.
    4. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "Is Japan Creating a Yen Bloc in East Asia and the Pacific?," NBER Chapters, in: Regionalism and Rivalry: Japan and the United States in Pacific Asia, pages 53-88, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Rana, Pradumna B., 1981. "Exchange rate risk under generalized floating : Eight Asian countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 459-466, November.
    6. Sims, Christopher A., 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 463-474.
    7. Kim, Yoonbai, 1990. "Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run: A Cointegration Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(4), pages 491-503, November.
    8. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:1:p:167-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. C. H. Kwan, 1996. "A Yen bloc in Asia: An integrative approach," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 1-21.
    10. Barnhart, Scott W. & Szakmary, Andrew C., 1991. "Testing the Unbiased Forward Rate Hypothesis: Evidence on Unit Roots, Co-Integration, and Stochastic Coefficients," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 245-267, June.
    11. David A. Dickey & Dennis W. Jansen & Daniel L. Thornton, 1994. "A Primer on Cointegration with an Application to Money and Income," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: B. Bhaskara Rao (ed.), Cointegration, chapter 2, pages 9-45, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
    13. Liu, Christina Y & He, Jia, 1991. "A Variance-Ratio Test of Random Walks in Foreign Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 773-785, June.
    14. Glick,Reuven & Hutchison,Michael (ed.), 1994. "Exchange Rate Policy and Interdependence," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521461108, September.
    15. Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Salmon, Mark, 1983. "Testing normality in econometric models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 123-127.
    16. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    17. Jeffrey Frankel & Miles Kahler, 1993. "Regionalism and Rivalry: Japan and the United States in Pacific Asia," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fran93-1.
    18. McFarland, James W & Pettit, R Richardson & Sung, Sam K, 1982. "The Distribution of Foreign Exchange Price Changes: Trading Day Effects and Risk Measurement," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(3), pages 693-715, June.
    19. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. "Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 737-745, June.
    20. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," NBER Working Papers 3949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. A. I. McLeod & W. K. Li, 1983. "Diagnostic Checking Arma Time Series Models Using Squared‐Residual Autocorrelations," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(4), pages 269-273, July.
    22. Sephton, Peter S. & Larsen, Hans K., 1991. "Tests of exchange market efficiency: fragile evidence from cointegration tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 561-570, December.
    23. Hsieh, David A., 1988. "The statistical properties of daily foreign exchange rates: 1974-1983," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 129-145, February.
    24. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Miles Kahler, 1993. "Introduction to "Regionalism and Rivalry: Japan and the United States in Pacific Asia"," NBER Chapters, in: Regionalism and Rivalry: Japan and the United States in Pacific Asia, pages 1-18, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Corbae, Dean & Ouliaris, Sam, 1986. "Robust tests for unit roots in the foreign exchange market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 375-380.
    26. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of Monetary Unification," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt791143kp, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    27. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    28. Kojima, Kiyoshi, 1985. "Japanese and American Direct Investment in Asia : A Comparative Analysis," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 26(1), pages 1-35, June.
    29. Kim, Yoonbai, 1990. "Purchasing power parity : Another look at the long-run data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 339-344, April.
    30. Diebold, Francis X & Gardeazabal, Javier & Yilmaz, Kamil, 1994. "On Cointegration and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 727-735, June.
    31. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    32. Phylaktis, Kate, 1997. "Capital market integration in the Pacific-Basin region: An analysis of real interest rate linkages," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 195-213, June.
    33. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1989. "Market efficiency and cointegration: an application to the sterling and deutschemark exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 75-88, March.
    34. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    35. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    36. Chinn, Menzie & Frankel, Jeffrey, 1994. "Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for Twenty-five Currencies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(4), pages 759-770, November.
    37. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    38. Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Testing for Nonlinear Dependence in Daily Foreign Exchange Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 339-368, July.
    39. Akgiray, Vedat & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1988. "Mixed Diffusion-Jump Process Modeling of Exchange Rate Movements," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 631-637, November.
    40. Unknown, 1986. "Letters," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-9.
    41. Whitt, Joseph Jr., 1992. "Nominal exchange rates and unit roots: a reconsideration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(6), pages 539-551, December.
    42. LeRoy, Stephen F, 1973. "Risk Aversion and the Martingale Property of Stock Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 436-446, June.
    43. Friedman, Daniel & Vandersteel, Stoddard, 1982. "Short-run fluctuations in foreign exchange rates : Evidence from the data 1973-1979," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1-2), pages 171-186, August.
    44. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Wilson & Ralf Zurbruegg, 2003. "Trends and Spectral Response: An Examination of the US Realty Market," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2003-15, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    2. Aggarwal, Raj & Montanes, Antonio & Ponz, Monserrat, 2000. "Evidence of long-run purchasing power parity: analysis of real asian exchange rates in terms of the Japanese yen," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 351-361, December.
    3. McCrae, Michael, et al, 2002. "Can Cointegration-Based Forecasting Outperform Univariate Models? An Application to Asian Exchange Rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 355-380, August.
    4. Chun-Pin Hsu & Chin-Wen Huang & Wan-Jiun Chiou, 2012. "Effectiveness of copula-extreme value theory in estimating value-at-risk: empirical evidence from Asian emerging markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 447-468, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aggarwal, Raj & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1996. "Cointegration among Asian currencies: Evidence of the increasing influence of the Japanese yen," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 291-308, September.
    2. Aggarwal, Raj & Simmons, Walter, 2008. "Common stocastic trends among Caribbean currencies: Evidence from Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 277-289.
    3. van de Gucht, Linda M. & Dekimpe, Marnik G. & Kwok, Chuck C. Y., 1996. "Persistence in foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 191-220, April.
    4. Kühl, Michael, 2007. "Cointegration in the foreign exchange market and market efficiency since the introduction of the Euro: Evidence based on bivariate cointegration analyses," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 68, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    5. Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Exchange rate cointegration across central bank regime shifts," Research Paper 9602, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Kühl, Michael, 2010. "Bivariate cointegration of major exchange rates, cross-market efficiency and the introduction of the Euro," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 1-19, January.
    7. McCrae, Michael, et al, 2002. "Can Cointegration-Based Forecasting Outperform Univariate Models? An Application to Asian Exchange Rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 355-380, August.
    8. repec:got:cegedp:68 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Madura, J. & Wiley, M. K. & Zarruk, E. R., 1998. "Cointegration of term structure premiums across countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 393-412, November.
    10. Barkoulas, John T. & Barilla, Anthony G. & Wells, William, 2016. "Long-memory exchange rate dynamics in the euro era," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 92-100.
    11. Shi-Miin Liu & Chih-Hsien Chou, 2003. "Parities and Spread Trading in Gold and Silver Markets: A Fractional Cointegration Analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 899-911.
    12. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, June.
    13. Michael KUEHL, 2008. "Strong Comovements of Exchange Rates: Theoretical and Empirical Cases when Currencies Become the Same Asset," EcoMod2008 23800071, EcoMod.
    14. Macide Cicek, 2014. "A Cointegration Test for Turkish Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(4), pages 451-471, April.
    15. Bang Nam Jeon & Euiseong Lee, 2002. "Foreign exchange market efficiency, cointegration, and policy coordination," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 61-68.
    16. Jeon, Bang Nam & Seo, Byeongseon, 2003. "The impact of the Asian financial crisis on foreign exchange market efficiency: The case of East Asian countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 509-525, September.
    17. Tse, Y. K. & Ng, L. K., 1997. "The cointegration of Asian currencies revisited," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 109-114, March.
    18. Elyasiani, Elyas & Kocagil, Ahmet E., 2001. "Interdependence and dynamics in currency futures markets: A multivariate analysis of intraday data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1161-1186, June.
    19. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1996. "A Re-examination of the Fragility of Evidence from Cointegration- Based Tests of Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 311., Boston College Department of Economics.
    20. Montserrat Ferre & Stephen Hall, 2002. "Foreign exchange market efficiency and cointegration," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 131-139.
    21. Kam Chan & Louis Cheng & Ming-Shiun Pan, 1997. "Market efficiency and cointegration: Some evidence in Pacific-Basin black exchange markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 21(1), pages 25-31, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:10:y:1998:i:2:p:193-206. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.