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A survival analysis in the assessment of the influence of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on the probability and intensity of decline in the value of stock indices

Author

Listed:
  • Beata Bieszk-Stolorz

    (University of Szczecin)

  • Krzysztof Dmytrów

    (University of Szczecin)

Abstract

The aim of the study is to assess the strength of the world stock exchanges reaction to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic at the turn of 2019–2020. We analyze the risk and intensity of the decline in the values of the basic stock indices by means of selected methods of survival analysis. The spreading pandemic within a few months covered all continents and had a significant impact on the socio-economic situation of all countries. We studied the time of the 20% drop in stock market indices. This is a value that is taken as a sign of a crisis. In order to assess the probability of indices’ value decrease, we use the Kaplan–Meier’s estimator. We determine the risk of decline by means of a logit model and the intensity of the decline by means of an empirical hazard estimator and the Cox proportional hazard model. The intensity and risk of the decline of stock indices varied from continent to continent. The obtained results show that the intensity is highest in the fourth and eighth week after the peak and is the highest on European exchanges and then American and Asian exchanges (including Australia). The risk of falling the stock indices’ prices is the highest in America, followed by Europe, Asia and Australia, and lowest in Africa. Half of the analyzed indices record a 20% drop in value after 52 days (median duration). The study is a prelude to further analyses related to the crisis and the normalization of the situation on world stock exchanges. It allows to learn about the impact of the pandemic on the economic situation and to detect the differences between the continents.

Suggested Citation

  • Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Krzysztof Dmytrów, 2021. "A survival analysis in the assessment of the influence of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on the probability and intensity of decline in the value of stock indices," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(2), pages 363-379, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurase:v:11:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s40822-021-00172-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s40822-021-00172-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Iwona Markowicz, 2021. "Risk of Decline in Share Prices of Energy and Fuel Sector on the Warsaw Stock Exchange During the Two Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 977-996.
    2. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Krzysztof Dmytrów, 2021. "Evaluation of Changes on World Stock Exchanges in Connection with the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic. Survival Analysis Methods," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-19, June.
    3. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Krzysztof Dmytrów, 2022. "Assessment of the Similarity of the Situation in the EU Labour Markets and Their Changes in the Face of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Wiesław Pilis & Dominik Kabus & Ireneusz Miciuła, 2022. "Food Services in the Tourism Industry in Terms of Customer Service Management: The Case of Poland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-15, May.
    5. Krzysztof Dmytrów & Joanna Landmesser & Beata Bieszk-Stolorz, 2021. "The Connections between COVID-19 and the Energy Commodities Prices: Evidence through the Dynamic Time Warping Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-23, July.
    6. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Iwona Markowicz, 2021. "Decline in Share Prices of Energy and Fuel Companies on the Warsaw Stock Exchange as a Reaction to the COVID-19 Pandemic," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-17, August.
    7. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Iwona Markowicz, 2022. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Situation of the Unemployed in Poland. A Study Using Survival Analysis Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, October.
    8. Berezka Kateryna & Kovalchuk Olha, 2023. "The Application of Association Rules to Detect the Effects of Vaccinations against Covid-19 in the EU-27. Preliminary Estimates," Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, Sciendo, vol. 27(1), pages 1-16, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    SARS-CoV-2 pandemic; Stock indices; Survival analysis models; Risk assessment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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