Modeling Urban Expansion and Agricultural Land Conversion in Henan Province, China: An Integration of Land Use and Socioeconomic Data

China has experienced rapid urban expansion and agricultural land loss, and the land conversion has accelerated in central provinces since the mid-1990s. The goal of this paper is to examine the relative importance of socioeconomic and policy factors on the urban conversion of agricultural land in Henan Province, China. Using panel econometric models, we examine how socioeconomic and policy factors affect agricultural land conversion at the county level across three time periods, 1995–2000, 2000–2005, and 2005–2010. The results show that both urban land rent and urban wages are essential factors that positively contribute to the conversion of agricultural land. It is also found that per capita GDP is correlated with more urban development and agricultural land loss. Consistent with expectations, agricultural financial support is negatively correlated with agricultural land conversion, suggesting a policy success. Finally, the decomposition analysis illustrates that urban wages are the most influential positive factor and agricultural financial support is the most influential negative factor affecting the urban conversion of agricultural land.