IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/joecas/v20y2019ics1703494919300131.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the relation between exchange rates and tourism demand: A nonlinear and asymmetric analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Irandoust, Manuchehr

Abstract

Previous studies of demand for tourism assumed that the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the demand for tourism were symmetric for appreciations and depreciations, in both sign and size. In this paper we separate appreciations from depreciations and find that the assumption is not justified. Thus, this paper examines the extent to which exchange rate changes have an asymmetric effect on tourism demand in ten European countries by using hidden cointegration analysis within a likelihood-based panel framework. The findings indicate that there is a long-run relationship between tourism demand and exchange rate fluctuations which give support for the view that tourism demand have responded asymmetrically to the exchange rate changes. The economic implication of our results is that depreciations and appreciations affect tourism demand differently both in sign and size. It is worth mentioning that the methodological framework utilized in this paper can be a useful tool for designing and predicting the behavior of exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2019. "On the relation between exchange rates and tourism demand: A nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:20:y:2019:i:c:s1703494919300131
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2019.e00123
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1703494919300131
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeca.2019.e00123?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
    2. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael Mcaleer, 2012. "Aggregation, Heterogeneous Autoregression And Volatility Of Daily International Tourist Arrivals And Exchange Rates," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 397-419, September.
    3. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-176, April.
    4. Christian Stettler, 2017. "How do Overnight Stays React to Exchange Rate Changes?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 153(II), pages 123-165, June.
    5. Swamy, P A V B, 1970. "Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 311-323, March.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    7. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Aman Ullah & Takashi Yamagata, 2008. "A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(1), pages 105-127, March.
    9. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin‐Yu Ho, 2020. "Consumption and exchange rate uncertainty: Evidence from selected Asian countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(9), pages 2437-2462, September.
    10. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    11. Mr. Alexander Culiuc, 2014. "Determinants of International Tourism," IMF Working Papers 2014/082, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2008. "Testing slope homogeneity in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 50-93, January.
    13. Granger, Clive W.J. & YOON, GAWON, 2002. "Hidden Cointegration," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt9qn5f61j, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    14. Serdar Ongan & Cem Işik & Dilek Özdemir, 2017. "The Effects of Real Exchange Rates and Income on International Tourism Demand for the USA from Some European Union Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-11, December.
    15. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    16. Michael Vogt, 2008. "Determinants of the demand for US exports and imports of tourism," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(6), pages 667-672.
    17. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    18. Rolf Larsson & Johan Lyhagen & Mickael Lothgren, 2001. "Likelihood-based cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 1-41.
    19. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    20. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    21. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Barkoulas, John T., 2001. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Firm Profitability," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 565-576, October.
    22. Larsson, Rolf & Lyhagen, Johan, 1999. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Multivariate Panel Cointegration Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 331, Stockholm School of Economics.
    23. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005. "The Impact of Short‐ and Long‐run Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Investment: A Panel Study of Industrial Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 307-329, June.
    24. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Youssef El-Khatib, 2016. "An extension of the asymmetric causality tests for dealing with deterministic trend components," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(42), pages 4033-4041, September.
    25. Cheng, Ka Ming & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Thompson, Henry, 2013. "The real exchange rate and the balance of trade in US tourism," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 122-128.
    26. Irandoust, Manuchehr & Ericsson, Johan, 2005. "Foreign aid, domestic savings, and growth in LDCs: An application of likelihood-based panel cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 616-627, July.
    27. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Manuchehr Irandoust, 2024. "Employment and technology: Creative creation or creative destruction? An asymmetric analysis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 201-219, June.
    2. José Alberto Fuinhas & Matheus Belucio & Daniela Castilho & Joana Mateus & Rafaela Caetano, 2020. "Tourism and Economic Growth Nexus in Latin America and Caribbean Countries: Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Panel," Academica Turistica - Tourism and Innovation Journal, University of Primorska Press, vol. 13(1), pages 21-34.
    3. Veli YILANCI & Sertaç HOPOĞLU & Hakan ERYÜZLÜ, 2023. "The impact of the economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks on tourism demand of Mexico," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(636), A), pages 147-164, Autumn.
    4. Muhammad Amin Hasan & Mr. Abdullah & Muhammad Arsalan Hashmi & Ali Sajid, 2022. "International Remittances and International Tourism Development in South Asia: The Moderating Role of Political Stability," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(3), pages 177-187.
    5. Mesagan, Ekundayo Peter & Alimi, Olorunfemi Yasiru & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "The asymmetric effects of exchange rate on trade balance and output growth," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    6. Yamaka, Woraphon & Zhang, Xuefeng & Maneejuk, Paravee & Ramos, Vicente, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of third-country exchange rate risk: A Markov switching approach," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    7. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Kanitpong, Tatchawan, 2021. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes and Thailand's inpayments from and outpayments to its partners," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    8. José Alberto Fuinhas & Matheus Belucio & Daniela Castilho & Joana Mateus & Rafaela Caetano, 2020. "Tourism and Economic Growth Nexus in Latin America and Caribbean Countries: Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Panel," Academica Turistica - Tourism and Innovation Journal, University of Primorska Press, vol. 13(1), pages 21-34.
    9. Uju Violet Alola & Ojonugwa Usman & Andrew Adewale Alola, 2023. "Is pass-through of the exchange rate to restaurant and hotel prices asymmetric in the US? Role of monetary policy uncertainty," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, December.
    10. Manu Sharma & Geetilaxmi Mohapatra & A. K. Giri, 2022. "Examining the macro-determinants of tourist arrivals in India," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(8), pages 1-18, August.
    11. Bulatovic, Iva & Papatheodorou, Andreas, 2023. "Civil aviation and tourism demand in Montenegro: A panel data approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 25-36.
    12. Chi, Junwook, 2024. "Asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty and exchange rates on international air travel demand: The case from Hong Kong," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Manuchehr Irandoust, 2020. "The effectiveness of monetary policy and output fluctuations: An asymmetric analysis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 161-181, June.
    2. Manuchehr Irandoust, 2024. "Employment and technology: Creative creation or creative destruction? An asymmetric analysis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 201-219, June.
    3. Manuchehr Irandoust, 2024. "Does FDI encourage female labor force participation? Evidence from Arab countries," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 174-189, July.
    4. Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2022. "FDI and Natural Resource Rents: Evidence from Eight Post-Communist Countries," Journal of Economic Development, The Economic Research Institute, Chung-Ang University, vol. 47(2), pages 67-79, June.
    5. Schneider, Nicolas & Strielkowski, Wadim, 2023. "Modelling the unit root properties of electricity data—A general note on time-domain applications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 618(C).
    6. Angeliki N. Menegaki, 2019. "The ARDL Method in the Energy-Growth Nexus Field; Best Implementation Strategies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-16, October.
    7. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Lu, Yin & Tian, Tian & Ge, Chen, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of renewable energy, fintech development, natural resources, and environmental regulations on the climate change in the post-covid era," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    9. Tarik Dogru & Umit Bulut & Ercan Sirakaya-Turk, 2021. "Modeling tourism demand: Theoretical and empirical considerations for future research," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 874-889, June.
    10. Afef Bouattour & Maha Kalai & Kamel Helali, 2024. "The non-linear relationship between ESG performance and bank stability in the digital era: new evidence from a regime-switching approach," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.
    11. Qamruzzaman, Md, 2022. "Nexus between renewable energy, foreign direct investment, and agro-productivity: The mediating role of carbon emission," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 526-540.
    12. Qamruzzaman, Md & Karim, Salma & Jahan, Ishrat, 2022. "Nexus between economic policy uncertainty, foreign direct investment, government debt and renewable energy consumption in 13 top oil importing nations: Evidence from the symmetric and asymmetric inves," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 121-136.
    13. Muhammad Shahbaz & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Perry Sadorsky, 2018. "How strong is the causal relationship between globalization and energy consumption in developed economies? A country-specific time-series and panel analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(13), pages 1479-1494, March.
    14. Hussein Moghaddam & Robert M. Kunst, 2023. "The Role of Natural Gas in Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions: The Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Major Gas-Producing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-20, February.
    15. Aladejare, Samson Adeniyi, 2022. "Natural resource rents, globalisation and environmental degradation: New insight from 5 richest African economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    16. Francisco García-Lillo & Eduardo Sánchez-García & Bartolomé Marco-Lajara & Pedro Seva-Larrosa, 2023. "Renewable Energies and Sustainable Development: A Bibliometric Overview," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-22, January.
    17. Daniel, Betty C. & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2013. "Pushing the limit? Fiscal policy in the European Monetary Union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2307-2321.
    18. Tsangyao Chang & Chien-Chiang Lee & Hsiao-Ping Chu, 2015. "Revisiting the Defense-Growth nexus in European countries," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 341-356, June.
    19. Huaping Sun & Love Enna & Augustine Monney & Dang Khoa Tran & Ehsan Rasoulinezhad & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2020. "The Long-Run Effects of Trade Openness on Carbon Emissions in Sub-Saharan African Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-18, October.
    20. Chi, Meiqing & Muhammad, Sulaman & Khan, Zeeshan & Ali, Shahid & Li, Rita Yi Man, 2021. "Is centralization killing innovation? The success story of technological innovation in fiscally decentralized countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Simulation; Real effective exchange rate; Tourism demand; Asymmetric; Hidden cointegration; Likelihood-based panel cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:20:y:2019:i:c:s1703494919300131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/the-journal-of-economic-asymmetries/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.