IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v12y2019i22p4339-d286894.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling Intraday Markets under the New Advances of the Cross-Border Intraday Project (XBID): Evidence from the German Intraday Market

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Kath

    (University of Duisburg-Essen, 45141 Essen, Germany
    Current address: Altenessenerstr. 27, 45141 Essen, Germany.)

Abstract

The intraday cross-border project (XBID) allows intraday market participants to trade based on a shared order book independent of countries or local energy exchanges. This theoretically leads to an efficient allocation of cross-border capacities and ensures maximum market liquidity across European intraday markets. If this postulation holds, the technical implementation of XBID might mark a regime switch in any intraday price series. We present a regression-based model for intraday markets with a particular focus on the German European Power Exchange (EPEX) intraday market and evaluate if the introduction of XBID influence prices, volume or volatility. We analyze partial volume-weighted average prices and standard deviations as well as cross-border volumes at different trading times. We are able to falsify our initial hypothesis assuming a measurable influence of changes caused by XBID. Thus, this paper contributes to the ongoing discussion on appropriate modeling of intraday markets and demonstrates that XBID does not necessarily need to be included in any model.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Kath, 2019. "Modeling Intraday Markets under the New Advances of the Cross-Border Intraday Project (XBID): Evidence from the German Intraday Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-35, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:22:p:4339-:d:286894
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/22/4339/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/22/4339/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "Understanding intraday electricity markets: Variable selection and very short-term price forecasting using LASSO," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1533-1547.
    2. Kristiansen, Tarjei, 2007. "A preliminary assessment of the market coupling arrangement on the Kontek cable," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3247-3255, June.
    3. van Buuren, Stef & Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Karin, 2011. "mice: Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 45(i03).
    4. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    5. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    6. Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    7. Florian Ziel & Rick Steinert & Sven Husmann, 2015. "Forecasting day ahead electricity spot prices: The impact of the EXAA to other European electricity markets," Papers 1501.00818, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2015.
    8. Tim Janke & Florian Steinke, 2019. "Forecasting the Price Distribution of Continuous Intraday Electricity Trading," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-14, November.
    9. Panapakidis, Ioannis P. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting via the application of artificial neural network based models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 132-151.
    10. Simon Hagemann & Christoph Weber, 2015. "Trading Volumes in Intraday Markets - Theoretical Reference Model and Empirical Observations in Selected European Markets," EWL Working Papers 1503, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Apr 2015.
    11. Binder, John J, 1998. "The Event Study Methodology since 1969," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 111-137, September.
    12. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting spot electricity prices: Deep learning approaches and empirical comparison of traditional algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 386-405.
    13. Kiesel, Rüdiger & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2017. "Econometric analysis of 15-minute intraday electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 77-90.
    14. Ziel, Florian & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate modeling frameworks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 396-420.
    15. Weber, Christoph, 2010. "Adequate intraday market design to enable the integration of wind energy into the European power systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3155-3163, July.
    16. OGGIONI, Giorgia & SMEERS, Yves, 2013. "Market failures of market coupling and counter-trading in Europe: an illustrative model based discussion," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2553, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    17. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & Vrancx, Peter & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices in Europe: The importance of considering market integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 890-903.
    18. Zeileis, Achim, 2004. "Econometric Computing with HC and HAC Covariance Matrix Estimators," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 11(i10).
    19. Ziel, Florian & Steinert, Rick & Husmann, Sven, 2015. "Forecasting day ahead electricity spot prices: The impact of the EXAA to other European electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 430-444.
    20. Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2017. "Variance stabilizing transformations for electricity spot price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/17/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    21. Claudio Monteiro & Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado & L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez & Pedro Conde, 2016. "Short-Term Price Forecasting Models Based on Artificial Neural Networks for Intraday Sessions in the Iberian Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-24, September.
    22. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    23. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-1294, September.
    24. René Aïd & P. Gruet & H. Pham, 2016. "An optimal trading problem in intraday electricity markets," Post-Print hal-01609481, HAL.
    25. Zachmann, Georg, 2008. "Electricity wholesale market prices in Europe: Convergence?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1659-1671, July.
    26. José R. Andrade & Jorge Filipe & Marisa Reis & Ricardo J. Bessa, 2017. "Probabilistic Price Forecasting for Day-Ahead and Intraday Markets: Beyond the Statistical Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-29, October.
    27. Pape, Christian & Hagemann, Simon & Weber, Christoph, 2016. "Are fundamentals enough? Explaining price variations in the German day-ahead and intraday power market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 376-387.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Despoina I. Makrygiorgou & Nikos Andriopoulos & Ioannis Georgantas & Christos Dikaiakos & George P. Papaioannou, 2020. "Cross-Border Electricity Trading in Southeast Europe Towards an Internal European Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-18, December.
    2. Kramer, Anke & Kiesel, Rüdiger, 2021. "Exogenous factors for order arrivals on the intraday electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    3. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2020. "Beating the Naïve—Combining LASSO with Naïve Intraday Electricity Price Forecasts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, April.
    4. Michał Narajewski, 2022. "Probabilistic Forecasting of German Electricity Imbalance Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-17, July.
    5. Michał Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2019. "Estimation and Simulation of the Transaction Arrival Process in Intraday Electricity Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-16, November.
    6. Christopher Kath & Florian Ziel, 2020. "Optimal Order Execution in Intraday Markets: Minimizing Costs in Trade Trajectories," Papers 2009.07892, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    7. Simon Hirsch & Florian Ziel, 2022. "Simulation-based Forecasting for Intraday Power Markets: Modelling Fundamental Drivers for Location, Shape and Scale of the Price Distribution," Papers 2211.13002, arXiv.org.
    8. Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2020. "Ensemble Forecasting for Intraday Electricity Prices: Simulating Trajectories," Papers 2005.01365, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    9. Micha{l} Narajewski, 2022. "Probabilistic forecasting of German electricity imbalance prices," Papers 2205.11439, arXiv.org.
    10. Richter, Lucas & Lehna, Malte & Marchand, Sophie & Scholz, Christoph & Dreher, Alexander & Klaiber, Stefan & Lenk, Steve, 2022. "Artificial Intelligence for Electricity Supply Chain automation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    11. Christopher Kath & Weronika Nitka & Tomasz Serafin & Tomasz Weron & Przemysław Zaleski & Rafał Weron, 2020. "Balancing Generation from Renewable Energy Sources: Profitability of an Energy Trader," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, January.
    12. Serafin, Tomasz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2022. "Trading on short-term path forecasts of intraday electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    13. Simon Hirsch & Florian Ziel, 2023. "Multivariate Simulation-based Forecasting for Intraday Power Markets: Modelling Cross-Product Price Effects," Papers 2306.13419, arXiv.org.
    14. Moritz Nobis & Carlo Schmitt & Ralf Schemm & Armin Schnettler, 2020. "Pan-European CVaR-Constrained Stochastic Unit Commitment in Day-Ahead and Intraday Electricity Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-35, May.
    15. Rainer Baule & Michael Naumann, 2021. "Volatility and Dispersion of Hourly Electricity Contracts on the German Continuous Intraday Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-24, November.
    16. Christos Roumkos & Pandelis Biskas & Ilias Marneris, 2020. "Modeling Framework Simulating the TERRE Activation Optimization Function," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-30, June.
    17. Narajewski, Michał & Ziel, Florian, 2020. "Ensemble forecasting for intraday electricity prices: Simulating trajectories," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    18. Rainer Baule & Michael Naumann, 2022. "Flexible Short-Term Electricity Certificates—An Analysis of Trading Strategies on the Continuous Intraday Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-28, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2020. "Ensemble Forecasting for Intraday Electricity Prices: Simulating Trajectories," Papers 2005.01365, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    2. Narajewski, Michał & Ziel, Florian, 2020. "Econometric modelling and forecasting of intraday electricity prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    3. Narajewski, Michał & Ziel, Florian, 2020. "Ensemble forecasting for intraday electricity prices: Simulating trajectories," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    4. Lago, Jesus & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & De Schutter, Bart & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    5. Ilkay Oksuz & Umut Ugurlu, 2019. "Neural Network Based Model Comparison for Intraday Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-14, November.
    6. Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Econometric modelling and forecasting of intraday electricity prices," Papers 1812.09081, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.
    7. Christopher Kath & Florian Ziel, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Papers 1811.08604, arXiv.org.
    8. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "Understanding intraday electricity markets: Variable selection and very short-term price forecasting using LASSO," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1533-1547.
    9. Michał Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2019. "Estimation and Simulation of the Transaction Arrival Process in Intraday Electricity Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-16, November.
    10. Özen, Kadir & Yıldırım, Dilem, 2021. "Application of bagging in day-ahead electricity price forecasting and factor augmentation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    11. Kath, Christopher & Ziel, Florian, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 411-423.
    12. Ismael Ahrazem Dfuf & José Manuel Mira McWilliams & María Camino González Fernández, 2019. "Multi-Output Conditional Inference Trees Applied to the Electricity Market: Variable Importance Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-24, March.
    13. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2020. "Beating the Naïve—Combining LASSO with Naïve Intraday Electricity Price Forecasts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, April.
    14. Richter, Lucas & Lehna, Malte & Marchand, Sophie & Scholz, Christoph & Dreher, Alexander & Klaiber, Stefan & Lenk, Steve, 2022. "Artificial Intelligence for Electricity Supply Chain automation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    15. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    16. Umut Ugurlu & Ilkay Oksuz & Oktay Tas, 2018. "Electricity Price Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-23, May.
    17. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Tomasz Serafin, 2020. "PCA Forecast Averaging—Predicting Day-Ahead and Intraday Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.
    18. Tim Janke & Florian Steinke, 2019. "Forecasting the Price Distribution of Continuous Intraday Electricity Trading," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-14, November.
    19. Li, Wei & Becker, Denis Mike, 2021. "Day-ahead electricity price prediction applying hybrid models of LSTM-based deep learning methods and feature selection algorithms under consideration of market coupling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    20. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafa{l} Weron, 2022. "Forecasting Electricity Prices," Papers 2204.11735, arXiv.org.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:22:p:4339-:d:286894. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.