IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mtl/montde/2000-11.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exact Tests for Contemporaneous Correlation of Disturbances in Seemingly Unrelated Regressions

Author

Listed:
  • DUFOUR, Jean-Marie
  • KHALAF, Lynda

Abstract

This paper proposes finite-sample procedures for testing the SURE specification in multi-equation regression models, i.e. whether the disturbances in different equations are contemporaneously uncorrelated or not. We apply the technique of Monte Carlo (MC) tests [Dwass (1957), Barnard (1963)] to obtain exact tests based on standard LR and LM zero correlation tests. We also suggest a MC quasi-LR (QLR) test based on feasible generalized least squares (FGLS). We show that the latter statistics are pivotal under the null, which provides the justification for applying MC tests. Furthermore, we extend the exact independence test proposed by Harvey and Phillips (1982) to the multi-equation framework. Specifically, we introduce several induced tests based on a set of simultaneous Harvey/Phillips-type tests and suggest a simulation-based solution to the associated combination problem. The properties of the proposed tests are studied in a Monte Carlo experiment which shows that standard asymptotic tests exhibit important size distortions, while MC tests achieve complete size control and display good power. Moreover, MC-QLR tests performed best in terms of power, a result of interest from the point of view of simulation-based tests. The power of the MC induced tests improves appreciably in comparison to standard Bonferroni tests and, in certain cases, outperforms the likelihood-based MC tests. The tests are applied to data used by Fischer (1993) to analyze the macroeconomic determinants of growth.

Suggested Citation

  • DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & KHALAF, Lynda, 2000. "Exact Tests for Contemporaneous Correlation of Disturbances in Seemingly Unrelated Regressions," Cahiers de recherche 2000-11, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    • Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:2000-11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1866/335
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kiviet, Jan F. & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1997. "Exact tests in single equation autoregressive distributed lag models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 325-353, October.
    2. Dagenais, Marcel G & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1991. "Invariance, Nonlinear Models, and Asymptotic Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1601-1615, November.
    3. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Torres, Olivier, 2000. "Markovian processes, two-sided autoregressions and finite-sample inference for stationary and nonstationary autoregressive processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 255-289, December.
    4. Berndt, Ernst R & Savin, N Eugene, 1977. "Conflict among Criteria for Testing Hypotheses in the Multivariate Linear Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(5), pages 1263-1277, July.
    5. Cameron, A Colin & Trivedi, Pravin K, 1993. "Tests of Independence in Parametric Models with Applications and Illustrations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 29-43, January.
    6. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda, 2002. "Simulation based finite and large sample tests in multivariate regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 303-322, December.
    7. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    8. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
    9. Savin, N.E., 1984. "Multiple hypothesis testing," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 827-879, Elsevier.
    10. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1990. "Exact Tests and Confidence Sets in Linear Regressions with Autocorrelated Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 475-494, March.
    11. Jean-Marie Dufour & Abdeljelil Farhat & Lucien Gardiol & Lynda Khalaf, 1998. "Simulation-based finite sample normality tests in linear regressions," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages 154-173.
    12. Kariya, Takeaki & Fujikoshi, Yasunori & Krishnaiah, P. R., 1984. "Tests for independence of two multivariate regression equations with different design matrices," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 383-407, December.
    13. Harvey, A C & Phillips, G D A, 1980. "Testing for Serial Correlation in Simultaneous Equation Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(3), pages 747-759, April.
    14. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Kiviet, Jan F., 1996. "Exact tests for structural change in first-order dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 39-68, January.
    15. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1989. "Nonlinear Hypotheses, Inequality Restrictions, and Non-nested Hypotheses: Exact Simultaneous Tests in Linear Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 335-355, March.
    16. Oberhofer, W & Kmenta, J, 1974. "A General Procedure for Obtaining Maximum Likelihood Estimates in Generalized Regression Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(3), pages 579-590, May.
    17. Breusch, Trevor S., 1980. "Useful invariance results for generalized regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 327-340, August.
    18. Harvey, Andrew C & Phillips, Garry D A, 1982. "Testing for Contemporaneous Correlation of Disturbances in Systems of Regression Equations," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 79-91, November.
    19. Jean-Marie Dufour & Jan F. Kiviet, 1998. "Exact Inference Methods for First-Order Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 79-104, January.
    20. Srivastava, V. K. & Dwivedi, T. D., 1979. "Estimation of seemingly unrelated regression equations : A brief survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 15-32, April.
    21. Shiba, Tsunemasa & Tsurumi, Hiroki, 1988. "Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Tests of Independence in Seemingly Unrelated Regressions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(2), pages 377-395, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda & Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Genest, Ian, 2004. "Simulation-based finite-sample tests for heteroskedasticity and ARCH effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 317-347, October.
    2. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda, 2002. "Simulation based finite and large sample tests in multivariate regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 303-322, December.
    3. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda, 2001. "Finite-Sample Simulation-Based Tests in Seemingly Unrelated Regressions," Cahiers de recherche 0105, GREEN.
    4. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 2006. "Monte Carlo tests with nuisance parameters: A general approach to finite-sample inference and nonstandard asymptotics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 443-477, August.
    5. Beaulieu, Marie-Claude & Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda, 2014. "Exact confidence sets and goodness-of-fit methods for stable distributions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 181(1), pages 3-14.
    6. Jean-Marie Dufour & Lynda Khalaf & Marie-Claude Beaulieu, 2010. "Multivariate residual-based finite-sample tests for serial dependence and ARCH effects with applications to asset pricing models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 263-285.
    7. Sermin Gungor & Richard Luger, 2016. "Multivariate Tests of Mean-Variance Efficiency and Spanning With a Large Number of Assets and Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 161-175, April.
    8. Marie-Claude Beaulieu & Jean-Marie Dufour & Lynda Khalaf, 2005. "Exact Multivariate Tests of Asset Pricing Models with Stable Asymmetric Distributions," Springer Books, in: Michèle Breton & Hatem Ben-Ameur (ed.), Numerical Methods in Finance, chapter 0, pages 173-191, Springer.
    9. Dufour, J.M. & Farhat, A., 2001. "Exact Nonparametric Two-Sample Homogeneity Tests for Possibly Discrete Distributions," Cahiers de recherche 2001-23, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    10. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Torres, Olivier, 2000. "Markovian processes, two-sided autoregressions and finite-sample inference for stationary and nonstationary autoregressive processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 255-289, December.
    11. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & KHALAF, Lynda & BEAULIEU, Marie-Claude, 2003. "Finite-Sample Diagnostics for Multivariate Regressions with Applications to Linear Asset Pricing Models," Cahiers de recherche 2003-08, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    12. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Idoudi, Nadhem & Khalaf, Lynda & Yelou, Clement, 2007. "Finite sample multivariate structural change tests with application to energy demand models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1219-1244, December.
    13. Touhami Abdelkhalek & Jean-Marie Dufour, 1998. "Statistical Inference For Computable General Equilibrium Models, With Application To A Model Of The Moroccan Economy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 520-534, November.
    14. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & JASIAK, Joanna, 1998. "Finite-Sample Inference Methods for Simultaneous Equations and Models with Unobserved and Generated Regressors," Cahiers de recherche 9812, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    15. Marie-Claude BEAULIEU & Jean-Marie DUFOUR & Lynda KHALAF, 2002. "Testing Mean-Variance Efficiency In Capm With Possibly Non-Gaussian Errors : An Exact Simulation-Based Approach," Cahiers de recherche 17-2002, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    16. Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2005. "Exact tests of the stability of the Phillips curve: the Canadian case," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 445-460, April.
    17. Jean-Thomas Bernard & Nadhem Idoudi & Lynda Khalaf & Clément Yélou, 2007. "Finite sample inference methods for dynamic energy demand models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(7), pages 1211-1226.
    18. Chesher, Andrew & Dhaene, Geert & Gouriéroux, Christian & Scaillet, Olivier, 1999. "Bartlett Identities Tests," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 1999019, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    19. Jean-Marie DUFOUR & Lynda KHALAF & Marcel VOIA, 2013. "Finite-Sample Resampling-Based Combined Hypothesis Tests, with Applications to Serial Correlation and Predictability," Cahiers de recherche 13-2013, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    20. Jean‐Marie Dufour & Lynda Khalaf & Marie‐Claude Beaulieu, 2003. "Exact Skewness–Kurtosis Tests for Multivariate Normality and Goodness‐of‐Fit in Multivariate Regressions with Application to Asset Pricing Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 891-906, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    seemingly unrelated regressions; SURE system; multivariate linear regression; contemraneous correlation; exact test; finite-same test; Monte Carlo test; bootstra induced test; LM test; likelihood ratio test; scification test; macroeconomics; growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:2000-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sharon BREWER (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/demtlca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.