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Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil III: Konvergenz

Author

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  • Beate Schirwitz
  • Christian Seiler
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

Abstract

Im letzten Teil der dreiteiligen Artikelserie zu regionalen Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland wird untersucht, ob die Wirtschaftszyklen der Bundesländer im Zeitverlauf ähnlicher werden, d.h. konvergieren. Aufbauend auf Teil II werden zunächst die für alle Bundesländer berechneten Wendepunkte für eine erste Konvergenzmessung herangezogen. Im zweiten Schritt werden aus den Umsatzreihen Konjunkturzyklen unter Verwendung dreier Filterverfahren extrahiert. Mit Hilfe von rollenden Korrelationen können diese dann ebenfalls auf ihren Zusammenhang im Zeitablauf mit dem gesamtdeutschen Zyklus analysiert werden. Die Ergebnisse zeigen für die einzelnen Bundesländer ein differenziertes Bild. Für einen Großteil der Bundesländer hat eine Konvergenz bereits stattgefunden, d.h. Auf- und Abschwünge finden ungefähr im selben Zeitabschnitt statt. Eine weitere Gruppe ist durch eine Verschiebung der Phasen gekennzeichnet. Hier gilt es abzuwarten, ob eine Konvergenz möglicherweise in der Zukunft eintreten wird. Ähnliches gilt für die Stadtstaaten, deren Konjunkturzyklen sich erheblich von denen der anderen Bundesländer unterscheiden.

Suggested Citation

  • Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil III: Konvergenz," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(15), pages 23-32, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:62:y:2009:i:15:p:23-32
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Economic Growth and Business Cycle Forecasting at the Regional Level," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65.
    2. Wenzel, Lars, 2013. "Forecasting regional growth in Germany: A panel approach using business survey data," HWWI Research Papers 133, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    3. Gießler Stefan & Heinisch Katja & Holtemöller Oliver, 2021. "(Since When) Are East and West German Business Cycles Synchronised?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 241(1), pages 1-28, February.
    4. Wenzel, Lars & Wolf, André, 2013. "Short-term forecasting with business surveys: Evidence for German IHK data at federal state level," HWWI Research Papers 140, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    5. Musil Robert & Reiner Christian, 2019. "Synchronität der Büromarktzyklen? Dynamiken europäischer Metropolen im Kontext der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise," ZFW – Advances in Economic Geography, De Gruyter, vol. 63(1), pages 23-46, March.
    6. Jan Kluge & Anna Montén & Wolfgang Nagl & Beate Schirwitz & Marcel Thum, 2012. "Wachstum und Beschäftigung am Wirtschaftsstandort Dresden," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 64, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regionaler Konjunkturzyklus; Konvergenz; Filterung; Konjunktur; Bundesländer;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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