IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v62y2009i15p23-32.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil III: Konvergenz

Author

Listed:
  • Beate Schirwitz
  • Christian Seiler
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

Abstract

Im letzten Teil der dreiteiligen Artikelserie zu regionalen Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland wird untersucht, ob die Wirtschaftszyklen der Bundesländer im Zeitverlauf ähnlicher werden, d.h. konvergieren. Aufbauend auf Teil II werden zunächst die für alle Bundesländer berechneten Wendepunkte für eine erste Konvergenzmessung herangezogen. Im zweiten Schritt werden aus den Umsatzreihen Konjunkturzyklen unter Verwendung dreier Filterverfahren extrahiert. Mit Hilfe von rollenden Korrelationen können diese dann ebenfalls auf ihren Zusammenhang im Zeitablauf mit dem gesamtdeutschen Zyklus analysiert werden. Die Ergebnisse zeigen für die einzelnen Bundesländer ein differenziertes Bild. Für einen Großteil der Bundesländer hat eine Konvergenz bereits stattgefunden, d.h. Auf- und Abschwünge finden ungefähr im selben Zeitabschnitt statt. Eine weitere Gruppe ist durch eine Verschiebung der Phasen gekennzeichnet. Hier gilt es abzuwarten, ob eine Konvergenz möglicherweise in der Zukunft eintreten wird. Ähnliches gilt für die Stadtstaaten, deren Konjunkturzyklen sich erheblich von denen der anderen Bundesländer unterscheiden.

Suggested Citation

  • Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil III: Konvergenz," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(15), pages 23-32, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:62:y:2009:i:15:p:23-32
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2009_15_3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lourdes Montoya & Jakob Haan, 2008. "Regional business cycle synchronization in Europe?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 123-137, July.
    2. Roberta Colavecchio & Declan Curran & Michael Funke, 2009. "Drifting together or falling apart? The empirics of regional economic growth in post-unification Germany," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(9), pages 1087-1098.
    3. Hans-Friedrich Eckey & Reinhold Kosfeld & Matthias Türck, 2007. "Regional Convergence in Germany: a Geographically Weighted Regression Approach," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 45-64.
    4. Henning Klodt, 2000. "Industrial Policy and the East German Productivity Puzzle," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(3), pages 315-333, August.
    5. Mastromarco, Camilla & Woitek, Ulrich, 2007. "Regional business cycles in Italy," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 907-918, October.
    6. Funke, Michael & Strulik, Holger, 1999. "Regional growth in West Germany: convergence or divergence?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 489-502, December.
    7. Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil I: Die Datenlage," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(13), pages 18-24, July.
    8. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    9. Siem Jan Koopman & Joao Valle e Azevedo, 2003. "Measuring Synchronisation and Convergence of Business Cycles," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-052/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Christophe Croux & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2001. "A Measure Of Comovement For Economic Variables: Theory And Empirics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 232-241, May.
    11. Falko Juessen, 2009. "A distribution dynamics approach to regional GDP convergence in unified Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 627-652, December.
    12. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2003. "Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the euro area and the CEECs," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 313-334, September.
    13. Joachim Ragnitz, 2013. "Konvergenz von Wirtschaftsräumen – Eine Illusion?," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(01), pages 03-04, February.
    14. Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil II: Die Zyklendatierung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(14), pages 24-31, July.
    15. Massmann, Michael & Mitchell, James, 2003. "Reconsidering the evidence: Are Eurozone business cycles converging," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    16. Eckey Hans-Friedrich & Döring Thomas & Türck Matthias, 2008. "Konvergenzstudien zu Deutschland: Was lässt sich aus den empirischen Ergebnissen für die Ausgestaltung der deutschen Regionalpolitik lernen?," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 57(2), pages 119-144, August.
    17. Todd E. Clark & Kwanho Shin, 1998. "The sources of fluctuations within and across countries," Research Working Paper 98-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Economic Growth and Business Cycle Forecasting at the Regional Level," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65.
    2. Wenzel, Lars, 2013. "Forecasting regional growth in Germany: A panel approach using business survey data," HWWI Research Papers 133, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    3. Wenzel, Lars & Wolf, André, 2013. "Short-term forecasting with business surveys: Evidence for German IHK data at federal state level," HWWI Research Papers 140, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    4. Gießler Stefan & Heinisch Katja & Holtemöller Oliver, 2021. "(Since When) Are East and West German Business Cycles Synchronised?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 241(1), pages 1-28, February.
    5. Musil Robert & Reiner Christian, 2019. "Synchronität der Büromarktzyklen? Dynamiken europäischer Metropolen im Kontext der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise," ZFW – Advances in Economic Geography, De Gruyter, vol. 63(1), pages 23-46, March.
    6. Jan Kluge & Anna Montén & Wolfgang Nagl & Beate Schirwitz & Marcel Thum, 2012. "Wachstum und Beschäftigung am Wirtschaftsstandort Dresden," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 64, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jürgen Bierbaumer, 2012. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Österreich," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 85(11), pages 833-848, November.
    2. Hasan Engin Duran, 2015. "Dynamics of Business Cycle Synchronization in Turkey," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(5), pages 581-606, December.
    3. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    4. Hasan Engin Duran & Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes, 2017. "Determinants of co-movement and of lead and lag behavior of business cycles in the Eurozone," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 255-282, March.
    5. Gießler Stefan & Heinisch Katja & Holtemöller Oliver, 2021. "(Since When) Are East and West German Business Cycles Synchronised?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 241(1), pages 1-28, February.
    6. Bojeşteanu, Elena & Manu, Ana Simona, 2011. "Analiza empirică a sincronizării ciclului de afaceri şi a similarităţii şocurilor între România şi zona euro [Empirical analysis of business cycle synchronization and shock similarity between Roman," MPRA Paper 31295, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ageliki Anagnostou & Ioannis Panteladis & Maria Tsiapa, 2015. "Disentangling different patterns of business cycle synchronicity in the EU regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 615-641, August.
    8. Bertrand Candelon & Jan Piplack & Stefan Straetmans, 2009. "Multivariate Business Cycle Synchronization in Small Samples," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(5), pages 715-737, October.
    9. Marco Percoco, 2016. "Labour Market Institutions: Sensitivity to the Cycle and Impact of the Crisis in European Regions," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 107(3), pages 375-385, July.
    10. Kapounek, Svatopluk & Kučerová, Zuzana, 2019. "Historical decoupling in the EU: Evidence from time-frequency analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 265-280.
    11. Periklis Gogas, 2013. "Business cycle synchronisation in the European Union: The effect of the common currency," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(1), pages 1-14.
    12. Mark Mink & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Measuring Synchronicity And Co-Movement Of Business Cycles With An Application To The Euro Area," CAMA Working Papers 2007-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Hasan Engin Duran & Ugo Fratesi, 2023. "Economic resilience and regionally differentiated cycles: Evidence from a turning point approach in Italy," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(2), pages 219-252, April.
    14. Mark Mink & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2012. "Measuring coherence of output gaps with an application to the euro area," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 217-236, April.
    15. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Matheron, J., 2003. "Interactions between business cycles, stock market cycles and interest rates: the stylised facts," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 3, pages 80-99, November.
    16. Rozite, Kristiana & Bezemer, Dirk J. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2019. "Towards a financial cycle for the U.S., 1973–2014," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    17. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2006. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1687-1706.
    18. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 863-892, November.
    19. Mastromarco Camilla & Laura Serlenga & Yongcheol Shin, 2013. "Globalisation and technological convergence in the EU," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 15-29, August.
    20. Igan, Deniz & Kabundi, Alain & Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2011. "Housing, credit, and real activity cycles: Characteristics and comovement," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 210-231, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regionaler Konjunkturzyklus; Konvergenz; Filterung; Konjunktur; Bundesländer;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:62:y:2009:i:15:p:23-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.