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Industrial production and Confidence after the crisis: what's going on?

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  • Malgarini, Marco

Abstract

The paper provides new evidence on possible structural breaks in the relationship among business Confidence and industrial activity in Europe in the aftermath of the recession. Possible interpretation is that the crisis has determined a change in the pattern of response in surveys, firms now incorporating a lower level of long term output. A confirmation comes from the analysis of survey data on capacity utilisation: we find indeed that perceived potential output or potential output growth has declined throughout the euro area. Results may be rather important for business cycle analysts and policy makers: for the former, the suggestion is to consider business survey data with particular care, since their interpretation has changed as a consequence of the crisis. Policy makers on the other hand should consider that the recession has changed long term expectations of agents, possibly significantly affecting transmission channels of both monetary and fiscal policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Malgarini, Marco, 2012. "Industrial production and Confidence after the crisis: what's going on?," MPRA Paper 53813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53813
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53813/1/MPRA_paper_53813.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Weale, Martin, 2006. "Survey Expectations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 715-776, Elsevier.
    2. Marco Malgarini & Antonio Paradiso, 2012. "Measuring capacity utilisation in the italian manufacturing sector: a comparison between time series and survey estimates," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(2), pages 5-19.
    3. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    4. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    5. Cesaroni, Tatiana & Maccini, Louis & Malgarini, Marco, 2011. "Business cycle stylized facts and inventory behaviour: New evidence for the Euro area," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 12-24, September.
    6. Furceri, Davide & Mourougane, Annabelle, 2012. "The effect of financial crises on potential output: New empirical evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 822-832.
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    Cited by:

    1. G. Bruno & L. Crosilla & P. Margani, 2019. "Inspecting the Relationship Between Business Confidence and Industrial Production: Evidence on Italian Survey Data," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(1), pages 1-24, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Business surveys; potential output growth; structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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