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Co-movement of major commodity price returns : time-series assessment

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  • de Nicola, Francesca
  • De Pace, Pierangelo
  • Hernandez, Manuel A.

Abstract

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the degree of co-movement among the nominal price returns of 11 major energy, agricultural and food commodities based on monthly data between 1970 and 2013. A uniform-spacings testing approach, a multivariate dynamic conditional correlation model and a rolling regression procedure are used to study the extent and the time-evolution of unconditional and conditional correlations. The results indicate that (i) the price returns of energy and agricultural commodities are highly correlated; (ii) the overall level of co-movement among commodities increased in recent years, especially between energy and agricultural commodities and in particular in the cases of maize and soybean oil, which are important inputs in the production of biofuels; and (iii) particularly after 2007, stock market volatility is positively associated with the co-movement of price returns across markets.

Suggested Citation

  • de Nicola, Francesca & De Pace, Pierangelo & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2014. "Co-movement of major commodity price returns : time-series assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6845, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6845
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    4. Fernandez, Viviana, 2015. "Influence in commodity markets: Measuring co‐movement globally," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 151-164.

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    Keywords

    Crops and Crop Management Systems; Energy Production and Transportation; Markets and Market Access; Emerging Markets; Food&Beverage Industry;
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