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How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta-Analysis

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  • Marek Rusnak
  • Tomas Havranek
  • Roman Horvath

Abstract

The short-run increase in prices following an unexpected tightening of monetary policy represents a frequently reported puzzle. Yet the puzzle is surprisingly easy to explain away when all published models are quantitatively reviewed. We collect about 1,000 point estimates of impulse responses from 70 articles using vector autoregressive models and present a simple method of research synthesis for graphical results. We find some evidence of publication selection against the price puzzle. Our results suggest that the reported impulse responses depend systematically on the study design: when misspecifications are filtered out, the average impulse response shows that prices decrease soon after a tightening. The long-run response of prices to monetary policy shocks depends on the characteristics of the economy.

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  • Marek Rusnak & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2011. "How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers 2011/02, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2011/02
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    Keywords

    Meta-analysis; monetary policy transmission; price puzzle; publication selection bias.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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