IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000094/009106.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sustainability of Latin American Fiscal Deficits: A Panel Data Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Jacobo Campo Robledo
  • Luis Fernando Melo Velandia

Abstract

This paper evaluates the fiscal sustainability hypothesis for eight Latin Americancountries for the period 1960 - 2009: Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, Peru, Paraguayand Uruguay. Using second generation cointegration panel data models, we test whether governmentrevenues and primary expenditures are sustainable in the long run. This methodology allowsfor cross-sectional dependence among countries and is appropriate under the existence of potentialstructural breaks. We found empirical evidence of sustainability of the primary deficit for theseLatin American countries but only in a weak sense.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacobo Campo Robledo & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 2011. "Sustainability of Latin American Fiscal Deficits: A Panel Data Approach," Borradores de Economia 9106, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:009106
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra679.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
    2. Suzanne McCoskey & Chihwa Kao, 1998. "A residual-based test of the null of cointegration in panel data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 57-84.
    3. Joakim Westerlund & Silika Prohl, 2010. "Panel cointegration tests of the sustainability hypothesis in rich OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(11), pages 1355-1364.
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. Christophe Ehrhart & Matthieu Llorca, 2008. "The sustainability of fiscal policy: evidence from a panel of six South-Mediterranean countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 797-803.
    6. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-445, July.
    7. Joakim Westerlund, 2006. "Testing for Panel Cointegration with Multiple Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(1), pages 101-132, February.
    8. Haug, Alfred A, 1991. "Cointegration and Government Borrowing Constraints: Evidence for the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 97-101, January.
    9. Christophe Rault & António Afonso, 2007. "Should we care for structural breaks when assessing fiscal sustainability?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(63), pages 1-9.
    10. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    11. Lee, Junsoo & Huang, Cliff J. & Shin, Yongcheol, 1997. "On stationary tests in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 165-172, August.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    13. Kaddour Hadri & Yao Rao, 2008. "Panel Stationarity Test with Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(2), pages 245-269, April.
    14. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    15. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    16. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-44, March.
    17. Mark Holmes & Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "Are EU budget deficits stationary?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 767-778, June.
    18. Wilcox, David W, 1989. "The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(3), pages 291-306, August.
    19. Bravo, Ana Bela Santos & Silvestre, Antonio Luis, 2002. "Intertemporal sustainability of fiscal policies: some tests for European countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 517-528, September.
    20. Ignacio Lozano & Enrique Cabrera, 2010. "Una nota sobre la sostenibilidad fiscal y el nexo entre los ingresos y gastos del Gobierno colombiano," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 207-238, abril-jun.
    21. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tomás del Barrio-Castro & Enrique López-Bazo, 2005. "Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 159-175, July.
    22. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    23. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-417, October.
    24. Silika Prohl & Friedrich G. Schneider, 2006. "Sustainability of Public Debt and Budget Deficit: Panel cointegration analysis for the European Union Member countries," Economics working papers 2006-10, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    25. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    26. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    27. Lucas Aníbal Pussetto, 2002. "Gasto Público Y Crecimiento Económico: Evidencia Para El Caso Argentino," Documentos CEDE 2759, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    28. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Westerlund, Joakim, 2006. "Testing for panel cointegration with a level break," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 27-33, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michał Mackiewicz, 2021. "The sustainability of fiscal policy in southern African countries–a comparative empirical perspective," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 18(2), pages 337-350, April.
    2. Tran, Ngan, 2018. "Debt threshold for fiscal sustainability assessment in emerging economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 375-394.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Campo Robledo, Jacobo, 2011. "Sostenibilidad fiscal: una aproximación con datos panel para 8 países Latinoaméricanos [Fiscal sustainability: A data panel approach for eight Latin American countries]," MPRA Paper 33091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jacobo Campo Robledo & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 2011. "How Sustainable are Latin American Fiscal Deficits: A Panel Data Approach," Borradores de Economia 679, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Owusu Benjamin, 2021. "Fiscal Sustainability Hypothesis Test in Central and Eastern Europe: A Panel Data Perspective," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 8(55), pages 285-312, January.
    4. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
    5. Mark Holmes & Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "Are EU budget deficits stationary?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 767-778, June.
    6. Mark J. Holmes & Theodore Panagiotidis & Jesus Otero, 2008. "Are EU budgets stationary?," Discussion Paper Series 2008_07, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Sep 2008.
    7. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2018. "Is there a bubble component in government debt? New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 467-486.
    8. Paul Alagidede & George Tweneboah, 2015. "On the Sustainability and Synchronization of Fiscal Policy in Latin America," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 52(2), pages 213-240, November.
    9. Christophe Rault & António Afonso, 2007. "Should we care for structural breaks when assessing fiscal sustainability?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(63), pages 1-9.
    10. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2008. "3-Step Analysis of Public Finances Sustainability: the Case of the European Union," Working Papers hal-00322086, HAL.
    11. Ching-Chuan Tsong & Cheng-Feng Lee & Li-Ju Tsai & Te-Chung Hu, 2016. "The Fourier approximation and testing for the null of cointegration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1085-1113, November.
    12. Afonso, António & Rault, Christophe, 2015. "Multi-step analysis of public finances sustainability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 199-209.
    13. Adnan Habib & Jamshaid Rehman & Tasneem Zafar & Haider Mahmood, 2016. "Does sustainability hypothesis hold in developed countries? A panel co-integration analysis," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    14. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:63:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Chow, Sheung Chi, 2013. "The sustainability of fiscal policy: A group-mean panel estimator approach," MPRA Paper 57808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. António Afonso & Florence Huart & João Tovar Jalles & Piotr Stanek, 2019. "Assessing the sustainability of external imbalances in the European Union," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 320-348, February.
    17. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Testing for fiscal sustainability: New evidence from the G-7 and some European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-15.
    18. Ismet GOCER & Mehmet MERCAN, 2016. "Which country after Greece? Sustainability of budget deficits in selected EU countries: A panel cointegration analysis with multiple structural breaks under cross-section dependence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 205-220, Autumn.
    19. Ismet GOCER & Mehmet MERCAN, 2016. "Which country after Greece? Sustainability of budget deficits in selected EU countries: A panel cointegration analysis with multiple structural breaks under cross-section dependence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 205-220, Autumn.
    20. Radmila Dragutinović Mitrović & Olgica Glavaški & Emilija Beker Pucar, 2019. "Fiscal Sustainability in Flow Model: Panel Cointegration Approach for the EU-28," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 15-24, August.
    21. Baumöhl, Eduard & Výrost, Tomáš & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2011. "Are we able to capture the EU debt crisis? Evidence from PIIGGS countries in panel unit root framework," MPRA Paper 30334, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Sustainability; Panel Unit Root tests; Panel Cointegration tests; Structural Change.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000094:009106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angelica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.