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The chronology of Brexit and UK monetary policy

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  • Geiger, Martin
  • Güntner, Jochen

Abstract

The outcome of the Brexit referendum in June 2016 was largely unanticipated. Even after the “Leave” vote, surprises regarding the withdrawal process affected the UK economy. We draw on an official list of political events published by the House of Commons Library and daily data on asset prices and economic policy uncertainty to construct a novel instrument for Brexit surprises. Including a monthly aggregate of this instrument into a vector-autoregressive model of the UK economy, an adverse Brexit surprise lowers GDP growth while raising CPI inflation. We provide evidence that the Bank of England fended off a worse economic contraction.

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  • Geiger, Martin & Güntner, Jochen, 2024. "The chronology of Brexit and UK monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:142:y:2024:i:c:s0304393223001034
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.09.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Tufan Ekici & Martin Geiger & Marios Zachariadis, 2024. "Understanding Expectations Formation for Hand-to-Mouth Households: Lessons from the Financial Crisis," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 05-2024, University of Cyprus Department of Economics, revised 05 Nov 2024.
    2. Hang Do & Kiet Duong & Toan Huynh & Nam T. Vu, 2024. "The Real Effects of Brexit on Labor Demand: Evidence from Firm-level Data," Working Papers 117, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Business and Management, Centre for Globalisation Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; Business cycle; Economic policy uncertainty; High-frequency identification; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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