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Do Inflows or Outflows Dominate? Global Implications of Capital Account Liberalization in China

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  • Mr. Tamim Bayoumi
  • Ms. Franziska L Ohnsorge

Abstract

This paper assesses the implications of Chinese capital account liberalization for capital flows. Stylized facts from capital account liberalization in advanced and large emerging market economies illustrate that capital account liberalization has historically generated large gross capital in- and outflows, but the direction of net flows has depended on many factors. An econometric portfolio allocation model finds that capital controls significantly dampen cross-border portfolio asset holdings. The model also suggests that capital account liberalization in China may trigger net portfolio outflows as large domestic savings seek to diversify abroad.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Ms. Franziska L Ohnsorge, 2013. "Do Inflows or Outflows Dominate? Global Implications of Capital Account Liberalization in China," IMF Working Papers 2013/189, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/189
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. He, Dong & Luk, Paul, 2017. "A Model Of Chinese Capital Account Liberalization," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(8), pages 1902-1934, December.
    3. Forbes, Kristin & Fratzscher, Marcel & Straub, Roland, 2015. "Capital-flow management measures: What are they good for?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 76-97.
    4. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2016. "China's capital flight: Pre- and post-crisis experiences," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 88-112.
    5. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Real exchange rate determination and the China puzzle," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 28(2), pages 1-32, November.
    6. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur & Falagiarda, Matteo & Bijsterbosch, Martin & Aizenman, Joshua, 2018. "Domestic and multilateral effects of capital controls in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 48-58.
    7. Kristin Forbes & Marcel Fratzscher & Roland Straub, 2013. "Capital Controls and Macroprudential Measures: What Are They Good For?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1343, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Dong He & Paul Luk & Wenlang Zhang, 2016. "Internationalisation of the Renminbi as an Investing and a Funding Currency: Analytics and Prospects," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 295-323, August.
    9. Cheung, Yin-Wong, 2014. "The Role of Offshore Financial Centers in the Process of Renminbi Internationalization," ADBI Working Papers 472, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    10. Guonan Ma & Robert N. McCauley, 2014. "Financial openness of China and India- Implications for capital account liberalisation," Working Papers 827, Bruegel.
    11. Isha Agarwal & Grace Weishi Gu & Eswar S. Prasad, 2019. "China’s Impact on Global Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 26311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Eden Hatzvi & Jessica Meredith & William Nixon, 2015. "Chinese Capital Flows and Capital Account Liberalisation," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 39-48, December.
    13. Rakesh Mohan & Michael Debabrata Patra & Muneesh Kapur, 2013. "The International Monetary System: Where Are We and Where Do We Need to Go?," IMF Working Papers 2013/224, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Chen, Jinzhao & Qian, Xingwang, 2016. "Measuring on-going changes in China's capital controls: A de jure and a hybrid index data set," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 167-182.
    15. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2016. "Dynamic Effects of Changes in the Exchange Rate System," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 111-161, March.
    16. Hooley, John, 2013. "Bringing down the Great Wall? Global implications of capital account liberalisation in China," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(4), pages 304-315.
    17. Ming Zhang & Xiaofen Tan, 2015. "Vanishing of China's Twin Surpluses and Its Policy Implications," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(1), pages 101-120, January.
    18. Mark Kruger & Gurnain Pasricha, 2016. "What to Expect When China Liberalizes Its Capital Account," Discussion Papers 16-10, Bank of Canada.
    19. Isha Agarwal & Grace Weishi Gu & Eswar Prasad, 0. "The Determinants of China’s International Portfolio Equity Allocations," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 0, pages 1-50.
    20. Huang, Yiping & Ji, Yang, 2017. "How will financial liberalization change the Chinese economy? Lessons from middle-income countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 27-45.
    21. Isha Agarwal & Grace Weishi Gu & Eswar Prasad, 2020. "The Determinants of China’s International Portfolio Equity Allocations," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 643-692, September.
    22. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2014. "The Revived Bretton Woods System's First Decade," NBER Working Papers 20454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Chen, Jinzhao & Qian, Xingwang, 2016. "Measuring on-going changes in China's capital controls: A de jure and a hybrid index data set," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 167-182.

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