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Tests of Unbiasedness in the Foreign Exchange Futures Markets: An Examination of Price Limits and Conditional Heteroscedasticity

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  • Kodres, Laura E

Abstract

Daily price limits, an institutional feature of futures markets, truncate the distribution of price changes and dampen the variance. Previous tests of the unbiasedness hypothesis using daily foreign exchange futures prices have accounted for the observed conditional heteroscedasticity in the data but have neglected to adequately incorporate the additional effects of daily price limits. This article examines both time variation and truncation of futures price changes. Empirical results suggest that previous rejections of the unbiasedness hypothesis in the foreign exchange futures market are not substantively altered by inclusion of price limits but may be attributed to potentially biased testing procedures. Copyright 1993 by University of Chicago Press.

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  • Kodres, Laura E, 1993. "Tests of Unbiasedness in the Foreign Exchange Futures Markets: An Examination of Price Limits and Conditional Heteroscedasticity," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(3), pages 464-490, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:66:y:1993:i:3:p:464-90
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1987. "Foreign currency futures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-2), pages 1-24, February.
    2. Brennan, Michael J., 1986. "A theory of price limits in futures markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 213-233, June.
    3. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    4. Kodres, L.E. & O'Brein, D.P., 1993. "The Existence of Pareto Superior Price Limits," Papers 93-8, U.S. Department of Justice - Antitrust Division.
    5. McCurdy, Thomas H. & Morgan, Ieuan G., 1987. "Tests of the martingale hypothesis for foreign currency futures with time-varying volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 131-148.
    6. Hsieh, David A., 1988. "The statistical properties of daily foreign exchange rates: 1974-1983," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 129-145, February.
    7. Cornell, Bradford & Reinganum, Marc R, 1981. "Forward and Futures Prices: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1035-1045, December.
    8. Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December.
    9. Adrian R Pagan & Anthony D Hall, 1983. "Diagnostic tests as residual analysis," Published Paper Series 1983-1, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    10. Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Testing for Nonlinear Dependence in Daily Foreign Exchange Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 339-368, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Friedmann, Ralph & Sanddorf-Kohle, Walter G., 2007. "A conditional distribution model for limited stock index returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 721-741, March.
    2. K. Smimou, 2013. "On the significance testing of fuzzy regression applied to the CAPM: Canadian commodity futures evidence," International Journal of Applied Management Science, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 144-171.
    3. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889.
    4. Jin, Shaorong & Zhou, Chaobo & Peng, Huan, 2023. "Does price limit reduce stock price volatility on the limit up and down day?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    5. Chou, Pin-Huang, 1997. "A Gibbs sampling approach to the estimation of linear regression models under daily price limits," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 39-62, February.
    6. Frank, Julieta & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2008. "To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 73-87, April.
    7. Chen, Chao & Jeng, Jau-Lian, 1996. "The impact of price limits on foreign currency futures' price volatility and market efficiency," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 13-25.
    8. Hsieh, Ping-Hung & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2009. "A censored stochastic volatility approach to the estimation of price limit moves," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 337-351, March.
    9. Eymen Errais & Dhikra Bahri, 2016. "Is Standard Deviation a Good Measure of Volatility? the Case of African Markets with Price Limits," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 17(1), pages 145-165, May.
    10. Dark, Jonathan, 2012. "Will tighter futures price limits decrease hedge effectiveness?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2717-2728.
    11. Adcock, Chris & Ye, Caiwei & Yin, Shuxing & Zhang, Dalu, 2023. "Are Chinese B-shares dead? An analysis of price limits on AB-shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 306-315.
    12. Tony Naughton & Madhu Veeraraghavan, 2004. "Are Price Limits Priced? Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Exchange," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 3(3), pages 249-267, December.
    13. Tamir Levy & Joseph Yagil, 2006. "An Empirical Comparison of Price‐Limit Models," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 6(3‐4), pages 157-176, September.
    14. Levy, Tamir & Qadan, Mahmod & Yagil, Joseph, 2013. "Predicting the limit-hit frequency in futures contracts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 141-148.
    15. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Kumar, Satish & Trück, Stefan, 2014. "Unbiasedness and risk premiums in the Indian currency futures market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 13-32.
    17. Wei, K. C. John & Chiang, Raymond, 2004. "A GMM approach for estimation of volatility and regression models when daily prices are subject to price limits," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 445-461, September.
    18. repec:wyi:journl:002068 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Shen, Chung-Hua & Wang, Lee-Rong, 1998. "Daily serial correlation, trading volume and price limits: Evidence from the Taiwan stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(3-4), pages 251-273, August.

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