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On the econometric modelling of consumer sentiment shocks in SVARs

Author

Listed:
  • Lance A. Fisher

    (Macquarie University)

  • Hyeon-seung Huh

    (Yonsei University)

Abstract

This paper applies recently developed methods for modelling systems of I(0) and I(1) variables to SVARs of consumer sentiment. We first model the shock associated with the structural equation for the I(0) consumer sentiment variable as having a permanent effect on the I(1) variables. Here it appears to convey news about future productivity. The contribution of the accumulated consumer sentiment shock to the permanent component of consumption and GDP increases substantially from 2000 to 2007, a finding we relate to recent work on boom–bust productivity episodes. We then model the sentiment shock as having a transitory effect on the I(1) variables. Here it appears to convey little news and is best thought of as an ‘animal spirits’ shock unrelated to productivity. The impact responses suggest that ‘animal spirits’ are not important in either model.

Suggested Citation

  • Lance A. Fisher & Hyeon-seung Huh, 2016. "On the econometric modelling of consumer sentiment shocks in SVARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1033-1051, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:51:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-015-1038-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-015-1038-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    2. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Guido Lorenzoni, 2013. "News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 3045-3070, December.
    3. Pagan, A.R. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2008. "Econometric analysis of structural systems with permanent and transitory shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3376-3395, October.
    4. Paul Beaudry & Bernd Lucke, 2010. "Letting Different Views about Business Cycles Compete," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 413-455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Barsky, Robert B. & Sims, Eric R., 2011. "News shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 273-289.
    6. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    7. Martial Dupaigne & Franck Portier & Paul Beaudry, 2007. "The International Propagation of News Shocks," 2007 Meeting Papers 251, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Patterns and Their Uses," NCER Working Paper Series 96, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    9. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1343-1377, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wadud, Mokhtarul & Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher & Tang, Xueli, 2020. "Factors affecting delinquency of household credit in the U.S.: Does consumer sentiment play a role?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. Sangyup Choi & Jaehun Jeong & Dohyeon Park & Donghoon Yoo, 2024. "News or animal spirits? Consumer confidence and economic activity: Redux," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 960-966, August.
    3. Ahmet Yağmur Ersoy & Metin Saygılı & Mustafa İlteriş Yılmaz & Mustafa Emre Uslu & İhsan Hakan Selvi, 2022. "Consumer Sentiment in Turkey, from Closure to the New Normal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-24, July.
    4. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah & Nieves Carmona-González & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2024. "Consumer sentiments across G7 and BRICS economies: Are they related?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(2), pages 323-344, June.
    5. Marwane El Alaoui & Elie Bouri & Nehme Azoury, 2020. "The Determinants of the U.S. Consumer Sentiment: Linear and Nonlinear Models," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-13, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer sentiment; P0 and T0 shocks; Long-run restrictions; Permanent component; News; Animal spirits;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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