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Alternative Measures of Risk in Commodity Supply Models: An Analysis of Sow Farrowing Decisions in the United States

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  • Moschini, GianCarlo
  • Holt, Matthew

Abstract

The role of price risk in sow farrowings is investigated by using bivariate ARCH-M and GARCH-M models and a nonparametric kernel estimator. To account for the relevant time horizon of irreversible supply decisions, predictions for mean price and conditional price variance are iterated forward. The empirical results vary markedly in terms of their implications for risk response in hog supply decisions, with the ARCH-M and GARCH-M models suggesting a small and negative risk effect. Estimates of the marginal risk premium also indicate moderate and variable departures from marginal cost pricing in sow farrowing supply decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Moschini, GianCarlo & Holt, Matthew, 1992. "Alternative Measures of Risk in Commodity Supply Models: An Analysis of Sow Farrowing Decisions in the United States," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11252, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:11252
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    2. Pope, Rulon D. & LaFrance, Jeffrey T. & Just, Richard E., 2011. "Agricultural arbitrage and risk preferences," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 35-43, May.
    3. Mathews, Kenneth H., Jr. & Short, Sara D., 2001. "The Beef Cow Replacement Decision," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 19(2), pages 1-21.
    4. Ward, Patrick S. & Singh, Vartika, 2013. "Risk and Ambiguity Preferences and the Adoption of New Agricultural Technologies: Evidence from Field Experiments in Rural India," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150794, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Bullock, David S. & Garcia, Philip & Shin, Kie-Yup, 2005. "Measuring producer welfare under output price uncertainty and risk non-neutrality," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(1), pages 1-21.
    6. James Rude & Yves Surry, 2014. "Canadian Hog Supply Response: A Provincial Level Analysis," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 62(2), pages 149-169, June.
    7. Holt, Matthew T., 1994. "Price-Band Stabilization Programs And Risk: An Application To The U.S. Corn Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(2), pages 1-16, December.
    8. Mbaga, Msafiri Daudi & Coyle, Barry T., 2003. "Beef Supply Response Under Uncertainty: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 1-21, December.
    9. Haigh, Michael S. & Bryant, Henry L., 2000. "Price And Price Risk Dynamics In Barge And Ocean Freight Markets And The Effects On Commodity Trading," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18934, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    10. Bahareh Mosadegh Sedghy & Rémy Lambert & Lota Dabio Tamini, 2016. "Supply response of corn farmers in Quebec: Analyzing the impact of prices volatility?," Cahiers de recherche CREATE 2016-1, CREATE.
    11. Mosadegh Sedghy, Bahareh & Tamini, Lota D. & Lambert, Remy, 2021. "Implications of the state assistance program in the province of Quebec: the case of lamb production," MPRA Paper 112162, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Tristan Le Cotty & Elodie Maître d'Hôtel & Moctar Ndiaye & Sophie S. Thoyer, 2021. "Input use and output price risks: the case of maize in Burkina Faso [Utilisation d'intrants et risques de prix : le cas du maïs au Burkina Faso]," Working Papers hal-03252026, HAL.
    13. Michael S. Haigh & Henry L. Bryant, 2000. "The effect of barge and ocean freight price volatility in international grain markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 25(1), pages 41-58, June.
    14. Rezitis, Anthony N. & Stavropoulos, Konstantinos S., 2010. "Modeling beef supply response and price volatility under CAP reforms: The case of Greece," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 163-174, April.
    15. Bard, Sharon K. & Barry, Peter J., 2001. "Assessing Farmers' Attitudes Toward Risk Using The "Closing-In" Method," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-13, July.
    16. Holt, Matthew T. & Aradhyula, Satheesh V., 1998. "Endogenous risk in rational-expectations commodity models: A multivariate generalized ARCH-M approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 99-129, June.
    17. Tristan Le Cotty & Elodie Maître d'Hôtel & Moctar Ndiaye & Sophie Thoyer, 2016. "Output price risk and fertilizer use decisions in Burkina Faso," Post-Print hal-01419764, HAL.
    18. Arnade, Carlos Anthony & Cooper, Joseph C., 2012. "Acreage Response under Varying Risk Preferences," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 1-17.
    19. Anthony N. Rezitis & Konstantinos S. Stavropoulos, 2010. "Supply response and price volatility in the Greek broiler market," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 25-48.

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