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Impacto de la sincronización sub-nacional sobre el comportamiento de los ciclos nacionales en economías emergentes con inflación objetivo

Author

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  • Quintero Otero, Jorge David

    (Fundación Universidad del Norte)

  • Padilla Sierra, Alcides de Jesús

    (Universidad del Atlántico)

Abstract

Este estudio busca evaluar la incidencia que tiene la sincronización de los ciclos económicos sub-nacionales sobre la amplitud de los ciclos económicos del agregado nacional en cuatro economías de mercados emergentes con esquema de inflación objetivo: Brasil, Colombia, Corea del Sur y México. Inicialmente se calcularon indicadores de sincronización subnacional y de amplitud en el agregado nacional en cada uno de los 4 países en 20 subperíodos (ventanas móviles) de tamaño constante (16 años) entre los años 1985 y 2019 y, posteriormente, se estimaron distintos modelos de rezagos distribuidos con datos de panel y efectos fijos, en los que se expresa la amplitud del ciclo nacional como una función de los valores actuales y pasados de la sincronización del ciclo regional. Los resultados de este estudio muestran que una mayor sincronización de los ciclos económicos sub-nacionales incrementa la amplitud de los ciclos económicos nacionales, tanto en las fases de expansión como de recesión. Este impacto de la sincronización regional sobre la amplitud de los ciclos económicos nacionales es mayor en Corea del Sur comparado con lo que ocurre en los países latinoamericanos, hecho que parece estar relacionado con las diferencias en el grado de homogeneidad de las estructuras productivas en las regiones de estos países.

Suggested Citation

  • Quintero Otero, Jorge David & Padilla Sierra, Alcides de Jesús, 2024. "Impacto de la sincronización sub-nacional sobre el comportamiento de los ciclos nacionales en economías emergentes con inflación objetivo," Documentos Departamento de Economía 54, Universidad del Norte.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000383:000054
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