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Open Economy Dsge-Var Forecasting And Policy Analysis: Head To Head With The Rbnz Published Forecasts

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  • Kirdan Lees
  • Troy Matheson
  • Christie Smith

Abstract

We evaluate the performance of an open economy DSGE-VAR model for New Zealand along both forecasting and policy dimensions. We show that forecasts from a DSGE-VAR and a 'vanilla' DSGE model are competitive with, and in some dimensions superior to, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's official forecasts. We also use the estimated DSGE-VAR structure to identify optimal policy rules that are consistent with the Reserve Bank's Policy Targets Agreement. Optimal policy rules under parameter uncertainty prove to be relatively similar to the certainty case. The optimal policies react aggressively to inflation and contain a large degree of interest rate smoothing, but place a low weight on responding to output or the change in the nominal exchange rate.

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  • Kirdan Lees & Troy Matheson & Christie Smith, 2007. "Open Economy Dsge-Var Forecasting And Policy Analysis: Head To Head With The Rbnz Published Forecasts," CAMA Working Papers 2007-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2007-05
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessia Paccagnini, 2012. "Comparing Hybrid DSGE Models," Working Papers 228, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2012.
    2. Massimiliano Marcellino & Yuliya Rychalovska, 2012. "An estimated DSGE model of a Small Open Economy within the Monetary Union: Forecasting and Structural Analysis," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/34, European University Institute.
    3. Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2018. "Does the foreign sector help forecast domestic variables in DSGE models?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 809-821.
    4. Massimiliano Marcellino & Yuliya Rychalovska, 2014. "Forecasting with a DSGE Model of a Small Open Economy within the Monetary Union," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 315-338, August.
    5. Rochelle M. Edge & Refet S. Gurkaynak, 2010. "How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(2 (Fall)), pages 209-259.
    6. Gunji, Hiroshi & Miura, Kazuki & Yuan, Yuan, 2009. "Bank competition and monetary policy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 105-115, January.
    7. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2009. "A comparision of forecast, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," CAMA Working Papers 2009-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Özer Karagedikli & Troy Matheson & Christie Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "RBCs AND DSGEs: THE COMPUTATIONAL APPROACH TO BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY AND EVIDENCE," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 113-136, February.
    9. Michael Wickens, 2014. "How Useful are DSGE Macroeconomic Models for Forecasting?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 171-193, February.
    10. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance versus Signals," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(4), pages 771-789, June.
    11. Marcin Kolasa & Michał Rubaszek & Paweł Skrzypczyński, 2012. "Putting the New Keynesian DSGE Model to the Real‐Time Forecasting Test," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1301-1324, October.
    12. Rangan Gupta & Rudi Steinbach, 2010. "Forecasting Key Macroeconomic Variables of the South African Economy: A Small Open Economy New Keynesian DSGE-VAR Model," Working Papers 201019, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    13. Julien Albertini & Güneş Kamber & Michael Kirker, 2012. "Estimated Small Open Economy Model With Frictional Unemployment," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 326-353, May.
    14. Rusnák, Marek, 2016. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in real time," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 26-39.
    15. Pop, Raluca-Elena, 2017. "A small-scale DSGE-VAR model for the Romanian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-9.
    16. Paul Hubert, 2011. "Do central banks forecast influence private agents ? Forecasting performance vs. signals," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-20, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    17. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2010. "A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 720-754.
    18. Renata Wróbel-Rotter, 2016. "Impulse Response Functions in the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Vector Autoregression Model," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 8(2), pages 93-114, June.
    19. Luciano Vereda & Marco A. F. H. Cavalcanti, 2010. "Modelo Dinâmico Estocástico de Equilíbrio Geral (DSGE) Para a Economia Brasileira: Versão 1," Discussion Papers 1479, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    20. Andrew Hodge & Tim Robinson & Robyn Stuart, 2008. "A Small BVAR-DSGE Model for Forecasting the Australian Economy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2008-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    21. Jaromír Beneš & Andrew Binning & Kirdan Lees, 2008. "Incorporating judgement with DSGE models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    22. Gregor Bäurle & Tobias Menz, 2008. "Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy Model: A DSGE-VAR Approach for Switzerland," Working Papers 08.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    23. Rochelle M. Edge & Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2011. "How useful are estimated DSGE model forecasts?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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