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Forecasting economic time series with unconditional time-varying variance

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  • Van Bellegem, Sebastien
  • von Sachs, Rainer

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  • Van Bellegem, Sebastien & von Sachs, Rainer, 2004. "Forecasting economic time series with unconditional time-varying variance," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 611-627.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:20:y:2004:i:4:p:611-627
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    10. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    11. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423, September.
    12. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-862, November.
    13. White, Halbert & Domowitz, Ian, 1984. "Nonlinear Regression with Dependent Observations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 143-161, January.
    14. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Testing for covariance stationarity in stock market data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 165-170, June.
    15. Zeng Tian & Swanson Norman R., 1998. "Predictive Evaluation of Econometric Forecasting Models in Commodity Futures Markets," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(4), pages 1-21, January.
    16. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    17. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    18. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:4:p:933-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Grillenzoni, Carlo, 1998. "Forecasting unstable and nonstationary time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 469-482, December.
    20. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
    21. Meese, R. & Rogoff, K., 1988. "Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Ralation Over The Modern Floating-Rate Period," Working papers 368, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
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    Cited by:

    1. Silvennoinen, Annastiina & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2024. "Consistency and asymptotic normality of maximum likelihood estimators of a multiplicative time-varying smooth transition correlation GARCH model," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 57-72.
    2. Cristina Amado & Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Ter¨asvirta, 2018. "Models with Multiplicative Decomposition of Conditional Variances and Correlations," NIPE Working Papers 07/2018, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    3. Amado, Cristina & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2014. "Modelling changes in the unconditional variance of long stock return series," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 15-35.
    4. Alexandra Daskovska & Léopold Simar & Sébastien Bellegem, 2010. "Forecasting the Malmquist productivity index," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 97-107, April.
    5. Silvennoinen Annastiina & Teräsvirta Timo, 2016. "Testing constancy of unconditional variance in volatility models by misspecification and specification tests," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 347-364, September.
    6. Niklas Ahlgren & Alexander Back & Timo Terasvirta, 2024. "A new GARCH model with a deterministic time-varying intercept," Papers 2410.03239, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    7. Timo Terasvirta & Zhenfang Zhao, 2011. "Stylized facts of return series, robust estimates and three popular models of volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1-2), pages 67-94.
    8. Abdelkamel Alj & Christophe Ley & Guy Melard, 2015. "Asymptotic Properties of QML Estimators for VARMA Models with Time-Dependent Coefficients: Part I," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-21, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    9. Abdelkamel Alj & Rajae Azrak & Christophe Ley & Guy Mélard, 2017. "Asymptotic Properties of QML Estimators for VARMA Models with Time-dependent Coefficients," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 44(3), pages 617-635, September.
    10. Escribano, Alvaro & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2018. "Equation-by-equation estimation of multivariate periodic electricity price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 287-298.
    11. Cristina Amado & Timo Teräsvirta, 2014. "Conditional Correlation Models of Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity With Nonstationary GARCH Equations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 69-87, January.
    12. Cristina Amado & Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Terasvirta, 2017. "Modelling and Forecasting WIG20 Daily Returns," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(3), pages 173-200, September.
    13. Sucarrat, Genaro, 2018. "The Log-GARCH Model via ARMA Representations," MPRA Paper 100386, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Cristina Amado & Timo Teräsvirta, 2017. "Specification and testing of multiplicative time-varying GARCH models with applications," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 421-446, April.
    15. repec:pdn:ciepap:104 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Campos-Martins, Susana & Amado, Cristina, 2022. "Financial market linkages and the sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    17. Amado, Cristina & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2013. "Modelling volatility by variance decomposition," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 142-153.
    18. Yuanhua Feng & Lixin Sun, 2013. "A semi-APARCH approach for comparing long-term and short-term risk in Chinese financial market and in mature financial markets," Working Papers CIE 69, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    19. VAN BELLEGEM, Sébastien, 2011. "Locally stationary volatility modelling," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011041, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    20. Holger Dette & Weichi Wu, 2020. "Prediction in locally stationary time series," Papers 2001.00419, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2020.
    21. Armin Pourkhanali & Jonathan Keith & Xibin Zhang, 2021. "Conditional Heteroscedasticity Models with Time-Varying Parameters: Estimation and Asymptotics," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 15/21, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    22. Song, Wenjuan & Sun, Lixin, 2014. "The Measurement of the Long-Term and Short-Term Risks of Chinese Listed Banks," MPRA Paper 70007, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2014.
    23. Ray Yeutien Chou & Chun-Chou Wu & Yi-Nung yang, 2012. "The euro's impacts on the smooth transition dynamics of stock market volatilities," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 169-179, May.

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