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Does Exchange Rate Volatility Dampen Imports? Commodity-Level Evidence From India

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  • Chandan Sharma
  • Debdatta Pal

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of exchange rates’ volatility on India’s imports on a balanced panel of 73 commodities spanned from April 2013 to October 2016. Rather than using cross-country bilateral import flows, we test the relationship at the commodity level using disaggregated trade data with monthly frequency. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model is used for estimating exchange rate. We employ pooled mean group estimator for simultaneously assessing long- and short-run association between nominal exchange rate volatility and import volume. In the long-run, for all commodities, a 100% increase in volatility results in a 12% drop in India’s imports. A significant dampening impact of volatility of exchange rate on imports is evidenced also in short-run. However, at the disaggregate level, imports in the agricultural and allied sector are found to be relatively more sensitive to exchange rate volatility as compared to the manufacturing sector. We also conducted a time series analysis for the aggregate data covering both pre- and post-crisis period. The results validate the findings of commodities-level panel data analysis. This paper concludes with policy implications of our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Chandan Sharma & Debdatta Pal, 2019. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Dampen Imports? Commodity-Level Evidence From India," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 696-718, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:33:y:2019:i:4:p:696-718
    DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2019.1630467
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    Cited by:

    1. Sadettin Haluk Citci & Hüseyin Kaya, 2023. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Connectedness of Inflation," Working Papers 2022-01, Gebze Technical University, Department of Economics.
    2. Sharma, Chandan & Paramati, Sudharshan Reddy, 2021. "Does economic policy uncertainty dampen imports? Commodity-level evidence from India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 139-149.
    3. Juan Antonio Galán-Gutiérrez & Rodrigo Martín-García, 2022. "Fundamentals vs. Financialization during Extreme Events: From Backwardation to Contango, a Copper Market Analysis during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-23, February.

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