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The financial cycle and recession risk

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  • Claudio Borio
  • Mathias Drehmann
  • Dora Xia

Abstract

Financial cycle booms can end in crises and, even if they do not, they tend to weaken growth. Given their slow build-up, do they convey information about recession risk? We compare the predictive performance of different financial cycle proxies with that of the term spread - a popular recession indicator. In contrast to much of the literature, our analysis covers a large sample of advanced and emerging market economies. We find that, in general, financial cycle measures provide valuable information and tend to outperform the term spread.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann & Dora Xia, 2018. "The financial cycle and recession risk," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:1812g
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    Cited by:

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    3. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03373425, HAL.
    4. Claudio Borio & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2023. "Macro-Financial Stability Frameworks: Experience and Challenges," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Claudio Borio & Edward S Robinson & Hyun Song Shin (ed.), MACRO-FINANCIAL STABILITY POLICY IN A GLOBALISED WORLD: LESSONS FROM INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE Selected Papers from the Asian Monetary Policy Forum 202, chapter 3, pages 2-49, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Carlos Poza, 2021. "Cycles and Long-Range Behaviour in the European Stock Markets," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Gilles Dufrénot & Takashi Matsuki (ed.), Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data, pages 293-302, Springer.
    6. Milan Christian Wet & Ilse Botha, 2022. "Constructing and Characterising the Aggregate South African Financial Cycle: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(1), pages 37-67, March.
    7. Tran, Thuy Nhung, 2022. "The Volatility of the Stock Market and Financial Cycle: GARCH Family Models," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 56(1), pages 151-168.
    8. Tommaso Gasparini & Vivien Lewis & Stéphane Moyen & Stefania Villa, 2024. "Risky Firms and Fragile Banks: Implications for Macroprudential Policy," Working papers 944, Banque de France.
    9. Jan Libich & Liam Lenten, 2022. "Hero or villain? The financial system in the 21st century," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 3-40, February.
    10. Hessler, Andrew, 2023. "Unobserved components model estimates of credit cycles: Tests and predictions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    11. Claudio Borio, 2021. "Back to the Future: Intellectual Challenges for Monetary Policy," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(4), pages 273-287, December.
    12. Lopomo Beteto Wegner, Danilo, 2024. "Central bank intervention and financial bubbles," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1-19.
    13. Ihejirika, Peters. O, 2020. "Does the Credit-to-GDP Gap Predict Financial Crisis in Nigeria?," International Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(2), pages 109-126, June.
    14. Ercolani, Valerio & Natoli, Filippo, 2020. "Forecasting US recessions: The role of economic uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    15. Lukáš Fiala & Petr Teplý, 2021. "The Use of Borrower-based Measures within Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from the European Economic Area," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2021(1), pages 71-91.
    16. van Eeghen, Piet-Hein, 2021. "Funding money-creating banks: Cash funding, balance sheet funding and the moral hazard of currency elasticity," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    17. O'Brien, Martin & Velasco, Sofia, 2020. "Unobserved components models with stochastic volatility for extracting trends and cycles in credit," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    18. Maximilian C. Brill & Dieter Nautz & Lea Sieckmann, 2021. "Divisia monetary aggregates for a heterogeneous euro area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 247-278, February.
    19. Adél Bosch & Steven F. Koch, 2020. "The South African Financial Cycle and its Relation to Household Deleveraging," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 145-173, June.
    20. Jeerawadee Pumjaroen & Preecha Vichitthamaros & Yuthana Sethapramote, 2020. "Forecasting Economic Cycle with a Structural Equation Model: Evidence from Thailand," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(3), pages 47-57.
    21. Chen, Guojin & Chen, Lingling & Liu, Yanzhen & Qu, Yuxuan, 2021. "Stock price bubbles, leverage and systemic risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 405-417.
    22. Claudio Borio, 2019. "Central banking in challenging times," BIS Working Papers 829, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. Friedrich Lucke, 2022. "The Great Moderation and the Financial Cycle," Working Papers REM 2022/0238, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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