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The Transmission Mechanism of Quantitative Easing: A Markov-Switching FAVAR Approach

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Abstract

This article assesses the impact of unconventional monetary policies and sheds light on their transmission mechanism in the United States. Using a three-variable Markov switching factor-augmented vector autoregression (MS-FAVAR) with time-varying transition probabilities and a shadow short-term interest rate, we allow our analysis to be free from arbitrary policy rate decisions and sample-splitting choices. By augmenting our informational set with variables able to grasp the functioning of Quantitative Easing, we can determine the differences between conventional and unconventional expansionary monetary policy shocks. Our results show a leading role for both the duration risk and the credit channels, a role for the default risk channel, and ultimately no evidence of the presence of a signaling channel during Quantitative Easing. We provide evidence that the large-scale asset purchase programs of the Federal Reserve effectively boosted the economy, mainly by modifying the term structure of the interest rates, thus providing strong economic stimulus throughout the financial sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Luisa Corrado & Stefano Grassi & Enrico Minnella, 2021. "The Transmission Mechanism of Quantitative Easing: A Markov-Switching FAVAR Approach," CEIS Research Paper 520, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 21 Oct 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:520
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    Cited by:

    1. Ethan Struby & Michael F. Connolly, 2022. "Shadow Rate Models and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2022-03, Carleton College, Department of Economics.
    2. Christian P Pinshi, 2022. "Ciblage des prévisions d'inflation : Un nouveau cadre pour la politique monétaire ?," Working Papers hal-03548273, HAL.
    3. PINSHI, Christian P., 2022. "Inflation-Forecast Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," MPRA Paper 111709, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Financial Crisis; Structural analysis; Non-linear FAVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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