IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/diw/diwwpp/dp1729.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Relation between Monetary Policy and the Stock Market in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Helmut Lütkepohl
  • Aleksei Netsunajev

Abstract

We use a cointegrated structural vector autoregressive model to investigate the relation between euro area monetary policy and the stock market. Since there may be an instantaneous causal relation we consider long-run identifying restrictions for the structural shocks and also use (conditional) heteroskedasticity in the residuals for identification purposes. Heteroskedasticity is modelled by a Markov-switching mechanism. We find a plausible identification scheme for stock market and monetary policy shocks which is consistent with the second order moment structure of the variables. The model indicates that contractionary monetary policy shocks lead to a long-lasting down-turn of real stock prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Helmut Lütkepohl & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2018. "The Relation between Monetary Policy and the Stock Market in Europe," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1729, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1729
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.581410.de/dp1729.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Lucia Alessi & Mark Kerssenfischer, 2019. "The response of asset prices to monetary policy shocks: Stronger than thought," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 661-672, August.
    3. Herwartz, Helmut & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2014. "Structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching: Combining conventional with statistical identification of shocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 104-116.
    4. Dominik Bertsche & Robin Braun, 2022. "Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions by Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 328-341, January.
    5. Gonzalo, Jesus & Ng, Serena, 2001. "A systematic framework for analyzing the dynamic effects of permanent and transitory shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1527-1546, October.
    6. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Velinov, Anton, 2016. "Structural Vector Autoregressions : Checking Identifying Long-Run Restrictions via Heteroskedasticity," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 30, pages 377-392.
    7. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Rahbek, Anders & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2010. "Cointegration Rank Testing Under Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(6), pages 1719-1760, December.
    8. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    9. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    10. Kilian,Lutz & Lütkepohl,Helmut, 2018. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107196575, January.
    11. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    12. Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2004. "Monetary policy and the stock market in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 387-399, April.
    13. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    14. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    15. Don Bredin & Stuart Hyde & Dirk Nitzsche & Gerard O'Reilly, 2009. "European monetary policy surprises: the aggregate and sectoral stock market response," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 156-171.
    16. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    17. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2017. "Structural vector autoregressions with smooth transition in variances," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 43-57.
    18. Pagan, A.R. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2008. "Econometric analysis of structural systems with permanent and transitory shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3376-3395, October.
    19. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-Seung & Summers, Peter M., 2000. "Structural Identification of Permanent Shocks in VEC Models: A Generalization," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 53-68, January.
    20. Kholodilin, Konstantin & Montagnoli, Alberto & Napolitano, Oreste & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2009. "Assessing the impact of the ECB's monetary policy on the stock markets: A sectoral view," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 211-213, December.
    21. Fausch, Jürg & Sigonius, Markus, 2018. "The impact of ECB monetary policy surprises on the German stock market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 46-63.
    22. Reinder Haitsma & Deren Unalmis & Jakob de Haan, 2016. "The Impact of the ECB�s Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies on Stock Markets," Working Papers 1605, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    23. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2017. "Structural vector autoregressions with heteroskedasticity: A review of different volatility models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 2-18.
    24. Li, Yun Daisy & Iscan, Talan B. & Xu, Kuan, 2010. "The impact of monetary policy shocks on stock prices: Evidence from Canada and the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 876-896, September.
    25. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & De Angelis, Luca & Rahbek, Anders & Robert Taylor, A.M., 2018. "Determining The Cointegration Rank In Heteroskedastic Var Models Of Unknown Order," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(2), pages 349-382, April.
    26. Lanne, Markku & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2010. "Structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 121-131, February.
    27. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 91, European Central Bank.
    28. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    29. Lanne, Markku & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2010. "Structural Vector Autoregressions With Nonnormal Residuals," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(1), pages 159-168.
    30. Lance A. Fisher & Hyeon-seung Huh, 2014. "Identification Methods In Vector-Error Correction Models: Equivalence Results," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 1-16, February.
    31. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
    32. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    33. Haitsma, Reinder & Unalmis, Deren & de Haan, Jakob, 2016. "The impact of the ECB's conventional and unconventional monetary policies on stock markets," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 101-116.
    34. Michael Ehrmann & Leonardo Gambacorta & Jorge Martinez-PagÈs & Patrick Sevestre & Andreas Worms, 2003. "The Effects of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 19(1), pages 58-72.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mihovil Anðelinoviæ & Filip Škunca, 2023. "Optimizing insurers investment portfolios: incorporating alternative investments," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 41(2), pages 361-389.
    2. Ivan Hajdukovic, 2022. "Transmission mechanisms of conventional and unconventional monetary policies in open economies," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 491-536, July.
    3. Pacicco, Fausto & Vena, Luigi & Venegoni, Andrea, 2019. "Market reactions to ECB policy innovations: A cross-country analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 126-137.
    4. Busu, Cristian & Busu, Mihail, 2019. "Modeling the predictive power of the singular value decomposition-based entropy. Empirical evidence from the Dow Jones Global Titans 50 Index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Helmut Lütkepohl & Anton Velinov, 2016. "Structural Vector Autoregressions: Checking Identifying Long-Run Restrictions Via Heteroskedasticity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 377-392, April.
    2. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-009 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2017. "Structural vector autoregressions with heteroskedasticity: A review of different volatility models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 2-18.
    4. Justyna Wr'oblewska & {L}ukasz Kwiatkowski, 2024. "Identification of structural shocks in Bayesian VEC models with two-state Markov-switching heteroskedasticity," Papers 2406.03053, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    5. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2015. "Structural vector autoregressions with heteroskedasticity: A comparison of different volatility models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-015, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    6. Lanne, Markku & Meitz, Mika & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2017. "Identification and estimation of non-Gaussian structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(2), pages 288-304.
    7. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-031 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Meitz, Mika & Netšunajev, Aleksei & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2021. "Testing identification via heteroskedasticity in structural vector autoregressive models," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 1-22.
    9. Dominik Bertsche & Robin Braun, 2022. "Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions by Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 328-341, January.
    10. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-015 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Karamysheva, Madina & Skrobotov, Anton, 2022. "Do we reject restrictions identifying fiscal shocks? identification based on non-Gaussian innovations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    12. Pacicco, Fausto & Vena, Luigi & Venegoni, Andrea, 2019. "Market reactions to ECB policy innovations: A cross-country analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 126-137.
    13. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netésunajev, Aleksei, 2014. "Structural vector autoregressions with smooth transition in variances: The interaction between US monetary policy and the stock market," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2014-031, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    14. Keweloh, Sascha A. & Hetzenecker, Stephan & Seepe, Andre, 2023. "Monetary policy and information shocks in a block-recursive SVAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    15. Helmut Herwartz & Alexander Lange & Simone Maxand, 2022. "Data‐driven identification in SVARs—When and how can statistical characteristics be used to unravel causal relationships?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(2), pages 668-693, April.
    16. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    17. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Woźniak, Tomasz, 2020. "Bayesian inference for structural vector autoregressions identified by Markov-switching heteroskedasticity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    18. Helmut Lutkepohl & Fei Shang & Luis Uzeda & Tomasz Wo'zniak, 2024. "Partial Identification of Heteroskedastic Structural VARs: Theory and Bayesian Inference," Papers 2404.11057, arXiv.org.
    19. Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон) & Turuntseva, Marina (Турунцева, Марина), 2015. "Theoretical Aspects of Modeling of the SVAR [Теоретические Аспекты Моделирования Svar]," Published Papers mak8, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    20. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, June.
    21. Dobromił Serwa & Piotr Wdowiński, 2017. "Modeling Macro-Financial Linkages: Combined Impulse Response Functions in SVAR Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(4), pages 323-357, December.
    22. Lanne, Markku & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2010. "Structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 121-131, February.
    23. Emanuele BACCHIOCCHI, 2011. "Identification in structural VAR models with different volatility regimes," Departmental Working Papers 2011-39, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegrated vector autoregression; heteroskedasticity; Markov-switching model; monetary policy analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1729. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.