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Cointegration Modeling for COVID-19 Infected Cases and Deaths in the US

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  • Rajarathinam Arunachalam

Abstract

This paper aims to study the short-run and long-run cointegration relationships between the total population, the cumulative number of new COVID-19-infected cases, and the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 in different states in the US. The short-run relationship is assessed using the ARDL model, and the long-run relationship is assessed using the ARDL bounds test. To assess the consistency of the model parameters, the cumulative sum of recursive residuals test and the cumulative sum of recursive residuals squares tests are used.  JEL classification numbers: E18, HO, I1, J64, J88.

Suggested Citation

  • Rajarathinam Arunachalam, 2024. "Cointegration Modeling for COVID-19 Infected Cases and Deaths in the US," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 13(1), pages 1-2.
    • Handle: RePEc:spt:stecon:v:13:y:2024:i:1:f:13_1_2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    3. R. Santos Alimi, 2014. "ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration: A Re-Examination of Augmented Fisher Hypothesis in an Open Economy," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(2), pages 103-114, June.
    4. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    5. R. Santos Alimi, 2014. "ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration: A Re-Examination of Augmented Fisher Hypothesis in an Open Economy," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(2), pages 103-114.
    6. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-1294, September.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Raymond Chi Wing Ng, 2002. "Long-Run Demand for Money in Hong Kong: An Application of the ARDL Model," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 1(2), pages 147-155, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Autoregressive distributed lag model; Error correction model; Unit root tests; Residual diagnostics; Bounds cointegration test; Stability tests.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J88 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Standards - - - Public Policy

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