IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/apjors/v6y2022i3d10.1007_s41685-022-00249-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on exports: new evidence from selected European Union countries and Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Orhan Cengiz

    (Cukurova University)

  • Müge Manga

    (Erzincan Binali Yıldırım University)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic, a new type of coronavirus that the world faced, broke out at the end of 2019 causing numerous impacts on all countries. Particularly the European Union (EU) countries were notably affected by COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns and stringency policies. Furthermore, although Turkey was successful in combating many areas of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the EU countries, its international trade was affected. This paper empirically investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on selected EU countries (Bulgaria, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Czechia) and Turkey’s exports with monthly panel data analyses over the March 2020–December 2021 period. The findings suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic had negative impacts on exports in the EU and Turkey. For example, a 1% increase in COVID-19 stringency reduced exports by 0.102%, and a 1% increase in total COVID-19 cases caused a decline in exports of 1.620%. Furthermore, the Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality test results show a two-way causality relationship between COVID-19 cases and export levels. In addition, unidirectional causality linkage exists from the COVID-19 stringency index. Therefore, causality test results confirm an impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on exports during the stringency measures and lockdowns.

Suggested Citation

  • Orhan Cengiz & Müge Manga, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on exports: new evidence from selected European Union countries and Turkey," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 1195-1219, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:apjors:v:6:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s41685-022-00249-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s41685-022-00249-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41685-022-00249-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s41685-022-00249-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Savina Gygli & Florian Haelg & Niklas Potrafke & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2019. "The KOF Globalisation Index – revisited," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 543-574, September.
    2. Xuepeng Liu & Emanuel Ornelas & Huimin Shi, 2022. "The trade impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(12), pages 3751-3779, December.
    3. Jaganath Behera & Alok Kumar Mishra, 2020. "Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth in G7 countries: evidence from panel autoregressive distributed lag (P-ARDL) model," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 241-258, February.
    4. Thomas Hale & Noam Angrist & Rafael Goldszmidt & Beatriz Kira & Anna Petherick & Toby Phillips & Samuel Webster & Emily Cameron-Blake & Laura Hallas & Saptarshi Majumdar & Helen Tatlow, 2021. "A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker)," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 529-538, April.
    5. Erginbay Ugurlu & Irena Jindřichovská, 2022. "Effect of COVID-19 on International Trade among the Visegrad Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-20, January.
    6. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Kohei Imai, 2022. "Who sends me face masks? Evidence for the impacts of COVID‐19 on international trade in medical goods," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 365-385, February.
    7. Javier Barbero & Juan José de Lucio & Ernesto Rodríguez-Crespo, 2021. "Effects of COVID-19 on trade flows: Measuring their impact through government policy responses," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(10), pages 1-20, October.
    8. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Hiroshi Mukunoki, 2021. "Impacts of Lockdown Policies on International Trade," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 123-141, Summer.
    9. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2008. "Testing slope homogeneity in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 50-93, January.
    10. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2017. "Revisiting the oil price and stock market nexus: A nonlinear Panel ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 258-271.
    11. Hadri, Kaddour & Kurozumi, Eiji, 2012. "A simple panel stationarity test in the presence of serial correlation and a common factor," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 31-34.
    12. Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
    13. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    14. George W. Warren & Ragnar Lofstedt & Jamie K. Wardman, 2021. "COVID-19: the winter lockdown strategy in five European nations," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3-4), pages 267-293, April.
    15. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    16. Li, Chunding & Lin, Xin, 2021. "COVID-19 and trade: Simulated asymmetric loss," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    17. Emmanuel Anoruo & Uchenna Elike, 2015. "Human Capital-Economic Growth Nexus in Africa: Heterogeneous Panel Causality Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 1017-1023.
    18. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Kahia, Montassar, 2019. "Impact of renewable energy consumption and financial development on CO2 emissions and economic growth in the MENA region: A panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 198-213.
    19. Arenas,Guillermo Carlos & Majune,Socrates Kraido & Montfaucon,Angella Faith Lapukeni, 2022. "The Impacts of Lockdown Policies on International Trade in the Philippines," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9911, The World Bank.
    20. Alvaro Espitia & Aaditya Mattoo & Nadia Rocha & Michele Ruta & Deborah Winkler, 2022. "Pandemic trade: COVID‐19, remote work and global value chains," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 561-589, February.
    21. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Mehdi Feizi & Hassan F. Gholipour, 2021. "Globalization and the Outbreak of COVID-19: An Empirical Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-10, March.
    22. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Mukunoki, Hiroshi, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on international trade: Evidence from the first shock," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    23. Simola, Heli, 2021. "The impact of Covid-19 on global value chains," BOFIT Policy Briefs 2/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    24. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    25. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    26. Dabo Guan & Daoping Wang & Stephane Hallegatte & Steven J. Davis & Jingwen Huo & Shuping Li & Yangchun Bai & Tianyang Lei & Qianyu Xue & D’Maris Coffman & Danyang Cheng & Peipei Chen & Xi Liang & Bing, 2020. "Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(6), pages 577-587, June.
    27. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Luis Varona & Jorge R Gonzales, 2021. "Dynamics of the impact of COVID-19 on the economic activity of Peru," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-30, January.
    29. Sébastien Jean, 2020. "How the COVID-19 Pandemic Is Reshaping the Trade Landscape and What to Do About It," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(3), pages 135-139, May.
    30. Muhammed BENLI, 2020. "The effect of external debt on long run economic growth in developing economies: Evidence from heterogeneous panel data models with cross sectional dependency," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(624), A), pages 127-138, Autumn.
    31. Behera, Smruti Ranjan & Dash, Devi Prasad, 2017. "The effect of urbanization, energy consumption, and foreign direct investment on the carbon dioxide emission in the SSEA (South and Southeast Asian) region," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 96-106.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tüzin Baycan & Suat Tuysuz, 2022. "Special Feature on social, economic, and spatial impacts of COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 1041-1051, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francisco García-Lillo & Eduardo Sánchez-García & Bartolomé Marco-Lajara & Pedro Seva-Larrosa, 2023. "Renewable Energies and Sustainable Development: A Bibliometric Overview," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-22, January.
    2. Aladejare, Samson Adeniyi, 2022. "Natural resource rents, globalisation and environmental degradation: New insight from 5 richest African economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Mehmood, Usman, 2021. "Contribution of renewable energy towards environmental quality: The role of education to achieve sustainable development goals in G11 countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 600-607.
    4. Usman Mehmood & Muhammad Umar Aslam & Muhammad Adil Javed, 2023. "Associating Economic Growth and Ecological Footprints through Human Capital and Biocapacity in South Asia," World, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-14, September.
    5. Kostakis, Ioannis & Arauzo-Carod, Josep-Maria, 2023. "The key roles of renewable energy and economic growth in disaggregated environmental degradation: Evidence from highly developed, heterogeneous and cross-correlated countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 1315-1325.
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Anamaria Diana Sova & Robert Sova, 2024. "The Covid‐19 pandemic and European trade flows: Evidence from a dynamic panel model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2563-2580, July.
    7. Wilman-Santiago Ochoa-Moreno & Byron Alejandro Quito & Carlos Andrés Moreno-Hurtado, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment and Environmental Quality: Revisiting the EKC in Latin American Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.
    8. Murshed, Muntasir & Saboori, Behnaz & Madaleno, Mara & Wang, Hong & Doğan, Buhari, 2022. "Exploring the nexuses between nuclear energy, renewable energy, and carbon dioxide emissions: The role of economic complexity in the G7 countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 664-674.
    9. Usman, Muhammad & Makhdum, Muhammad Sohail Amjad, 2021. "What abates ecological footprint in BRICS-T region? Exploring the influence of renewable energy, non-renewable energy, agriculture, forest area and financial development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 12-28.
    10. Filiz ERATAŞ-SÖNMEZ & Yağmur SAĞLAM, 2019. "The Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth for Developing Countries: Panel Causality Analysis," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(42).
    11. Mehmet BÖLÜKBAŞ & Mehmet Hanefi TOPAL & Hakan HOTUNLUOĞLU, 2018. "Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis for Eu-27 and Turkey : A Panel Granger Causality Approach under Cross-sectional Dependence," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 101-119, December.
    12. Angeliki N. Menegaki, 2019. "The ARDL Method in the Energy-Growth Nexus Field; Best Implementation Strategies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-16, October.
    13. Olatunji A. Shobande & Simplice A. Asongu, 2021. "Financial Development, Human Capital Development and Climate Change in East and Southern Africa," Working Papers 21/042, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    14. Alper Yılmaz, 2023. "Carbon emissions effect of trade openness and energy consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 1-28, February.
    15. Mohammad Mafizur Rahman & Istihak Rayhan & Nahid Sultana, 2023. "How Does Electricity Affect Economic Growth? Examining the Role of Government Policy to Selected Four South Asian Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-17, February.
    16. Manuchehr Irandoust, 2020. "The effectiveness of monetary policy and output fluctuations: An asymmetric analysis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 161-181, June.
    17. Murshed, Muntasir & Tanha, Muntaha Masud, 2020. "Oil Price Shocks and Renewable Energy Transition: Empirical evidence from net oil-importing South Asian economies," MPRA Paper 100162, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Safwan Mohd Nor & Nur Azura Sanusi & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar, 2018. "The Determinants of Credit Risk: Analysis of US Industry-level Indices," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(5), pages 1152-1165, October.
    19. Tiwari, Sunil & Si Mohammed, Kamel & Guesmi, Khaled, 2023. "A way forward to end energy poverty in China: Role of carbon-cutting targets and net-zero commitments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    20. Daniel Badulescu & Ramona Simut & Alina Badulescu & Andrei-Vlad Badulescu, 2019. "The Relative Effects of Economic Growth, Environmental Pollution and Non-Communicable Diseases on Health Expenditures in European Union Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-19, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19 pandemic; Exports; International trade; EU; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F61 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Microeconomic Impacts
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:apjors:v:6:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s41685-022-00249-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.