IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/osfxxx/x7bes_v1.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Gravity Model applied on Trade Flows between Portugal and the OECD

Author

Listed:
  • Sandambi, Nerhum

Abstract

The study analyses foreign trade between Portugal and the OECD countries in the period 1980-2020. The objective, of course, is to analyse foreign trade and understand the main factors that influence foreign trade. The analysis is estimated using a gravity model, analysed using ordinary least squares, random effects, fixed effects and the Hausman Taylor estimator. According to the results, there is a negative impact of the real GDP of the country of origin, Portugal being in the sample, and a positive impact on the economies of the destination countries, thus being relevant for explaining trade. These results are related to the fact that most OECD countries have a significantly larger economic size than Portugal. Physical distance produced results that show a negative impact on the volume of trade transacted, so when trade is made with the countries furthest away from Portugal (with Australia, for example), the volume of trade drops to -5.60 ‘coeteris paribus’. On the other hand, the real effective exchange rate (reer) has a positive impact of 1.6. We also used some binary variables to analyse whether trade is made with a country that belongs to an economic integration zone itself, so trade made with a country in the European Union produces negative impacts, unlike the results of the binary variable MERCOSSUR, which characterises whether countries belong to this economic bloc, where there are positive impacts on trade volume when trade is made with Brazil or Argentina, for example.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandambi, Nerhum, 2025. "Gravity Model applied on Trade Flows between Portugal and the OECD," OSF Preprints x7bes_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:x7bes_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/x7bes_v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/678bdaeb0d71f4f483283035/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/x7bes_v1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Julian Frede & Hakan Yetkiner, 2017. "The regional trade dynamics of Turkey: a panel data gravity model," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 633-648, August.
    2. Hausman, Jerry A & Taylor, William E, 1981. "Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1377-1398, November.
    3. Eduardo Cuenca García & Margarita Navarro Pabsdorf & Estrella Gómez Herrera, 2013. "The gravity model analysis: an application on MERCOSUR trade flows," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 336-348, December.
    4. Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Imperfect competition and international trade : Opening remarks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 77-81.
    5. Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," NBER Working Papers 12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    7. Melitz, Jacques, 2007. "North, South and distance in the gravity model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 971-991, May.
    8. Eduardo Cuenca García & Margarita Navarro Pabsdorf & Estrella Gómez Herrera, 2013. "The gravity model analysis: an application on MERCOSUR trade flows," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 336-348, December.
    9. Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Nowak-Lehmann, Felicitas, 2003. "Augmented Gravity Model: An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6(2), pages 1-26, November.
    10. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-1294, September.
    11. Filippini, Carlo & Molini, Vasco, 2003. "The determinants of East Asian trade flows: a gravity equation approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 695-711, October.
    12. Rault, Christophe & Sova, Robert & Sova, Anamaria, 2007. "Modeling International Trade Flows Between Eastern European Countries and OECD Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 2851, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Anna Golovko & Hasan Sahin, 2021. "Analysis of international trade integration of Eurasian countries: gravity model approach," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(3), pages 519-548, September.
    14. repec:ptu:bdpart:a199703 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sandambi, Nerhum, 2025. "Gravity Model applied on Trade Flows between Portugal and the OECD," OSF Preprints x7bes, Center for Open Science.
    2. Alemayehu Geda & Atnafu Meskel, 2008. "China and India's Growth Surge: Is it a curse or blessing for Africa? The Case of Manufactured Exports," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 20(2), pages 247-272.
    3. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2011. "The Limits to Integration," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume I, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Cardamone, Paola, 2007. "A Survey of the Assessments of the Effectiveness of Preferential Trade Agreements using Gravity Models," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 60(4), pages 421-473.
    5. Ayman El Dahrawy Sánchez‐Albornoz & Jacopo Timini, 2021. "Trade agreements and Latin American trade (creation and diversion) and welfare," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(7), pages 2004-2040, July.
    6. Wisniewski, Tomasz P. & Pathan, Saima K., 2014. "Political environment and foreign direct investment: Evidence from OECD countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 13-23.
    7. Sanjeev Vasudevan & Suresh Babu Manalaya, 2024. "Trade Effects of Eurasian Economic Union and Global Production Sharing: A Gravity Analysis," Working Papers 2024-272, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    8. B. Michael Gilroy & Elmar Lukas & Christian Heimann, 2010. "Welchen Einfluss hat die Anwesenheit von ausländischen und multinationalen Unternehmungen auf die deutschen Exporte?," Working Papers CIE 31, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    9. San Segundo, María Jesús, 1991. "Efectos bloque en la estimación de curvas de engel con datos de la encuesta de presupuestos familiares 1980-81," DE - Documentos de Trabajo. Economía. DE 3002, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    10. Sally Milton & M A B Siddique, 2014. "Trade Creation and Diversion Under the Thailand-Australia Free Trade Agreement (TAFTA)," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 14-26, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    11. Matthieu Bussière & Bernd Schnatz, 2009. "Evaluating China’s Integration in World Trade with a Gravity Model Based Benchmark," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 85-111, February.
    12. Tamaş Anca, 2020. "Why should the gravity model be taught in business education?," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 14(1), pages 422-433, July.
    13. Frederik Stender, 2018. "MERCOSUR in gravity: an accounting approach to analyzing its trade effects," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 501-522, April.
    14. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:48:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Chandran, B.P. Sarath, 2018. "Trade Impact of the India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (FTA): An Augmented Gravity Model Analysis," MPRA Paper 84183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Yongcheol Shin & Laura Serlenga, 2007. "Gravity models of intra-EU trade: application of the CCEP-HT estimation in heterogeneous panels with unobserved common time-specific factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 361-381.
    17. Mitze, Timo & Alecke, Björn & Untiedt, Gerhard, 2008. "Trade, FDI and Cross-Variable Linkages: A German (Macro-)Regional Perspective," MPRA Paper 12245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Mitze, Timo, 2010. "Estimating Gravity Models of International Trade with Correlated Time-Fixed Regressors: To IV or not IV?," MPRA Paper 23540, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Richa Shukla, 2020. "Market Structure, Entry Barriers, and Firms’ R&D Intensity: Panel Data Evidence from Electronics Goods Sector in India," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 115-137, March.
    20. Yan Li, 2008. "Econometric Evidence on the Impacts of Privatization, New Entry, and Independent Industry Regulator on Mobile Network Penetration and Expansion," Working Paper series, University of East Anglia, Centre for Competition Policy (CCP) 2008-35, Centre for Competition Policy, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    21. Bardozzetti, Alfredo & Dottori, Davide, 2014. "Collective action clauses: How do they affect sovereign bond yields?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 286-303.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:x7bes_v1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://osf.io/preprints/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.