Analysis of the Main Social Macroeconomic Indicators of the Population During The oil Boom in Azerbaijan

Indicators directly related to the economies of oil-exporting countries, and especially the socio-economic well-being of the population, depend on the resource potential and prices for resources of these countries. The income of the population, their average monthly salary, the average amount of monthly pensions, the average amount of old-age pensions, the average amount of disability pensions, the amount of pensions for the loss of the head of the family form the basis of the state of financial well-being. Taking them as a basis, we completed the goal of our research by constructing models that determine the dependence of the main indicators of the socio-economic and, of course, material well-being of the population of Azerbaijan on world oil prices. The study covers the years 1997-2022. The ARDL and ARDL_ECM models are adapted to determine long-term and short-term levels of these indicators, taking into account world oil prices. According to the ARDLBT results, a high level of co-integration relationship with world oil prices and socio-economic indicators of the population is noted. This has also been proven in the short term. Thus, the alternative CCR, DOLS, FMOLS, and VECM models used to validate these results further demonstrated the importance of these interactions. Moreover, the study also conducted a combined Bayer-Hank co-integration test. But the results turned out to be somewhat different. The results of this study can be taken into account to 1° or another in the socio-economic policy of the state in Azerbaijan.