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Impact of tax changes on the risk premium of the WIG index

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  • Paweł Radwański

    (Kozminski University)

Abstract

The presented article provides an empirical analysis of changes in the risk premium of stocks on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in response to changes in tax rates. The analysis uses a structural VAR model, identified with sign restrictions. This method turns out simple to use and proves to be effective in overcoming the problem of predictability of fiscal policy, which is especially important in studies using variables from financial markets. The results show an increase in the risk premium following a sudden tax hike, accompanied only by a temporary reduction in GDP growth. Meanwhile, an anticipated tax hike seems to lower risk premia while being more harmful to GDP dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Paweł Radwański, 2024. "Impact of tax changes on the risk premium of the WIG index," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 55(3), pages 333-356.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:55:y:2024:i:3:p:333-356
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; risk premium; VAR model; sign restrictions; behavioural finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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