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The Credit Channel and Monetary Transmission in Brazil and Chile: A Structured VAR Approach

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  • Luis Catão

    (IDB, IMF)

  • Adrian Pagan

    (UNSW, QUT)

Abstract

We use an expectation-augmented SVAR representation of an open economy New Keynesian model to study monetary transmission in Brazil and Chile. The underlying structural model incorporates key structural features of Emerging Market economies, notably the role of a bank-credit channel. We find that interest rate changes have swifter effects on output and inflation in both countries compared to advanced economies and that exchange rate dynamics plays an important role in monetary transmission, as currency movements are highly responsive to changes in in policy-controlled interest rates. We also find the typical size of credit shocks to have large effects on output and inflation in the two economies, being stronger in Chile where bank penetration is higher.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Catão & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "The Credit Channel and Monetary Transmission in Brazil and Chile: A Structured VAR Approach," NCER Working Paper Series 53, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:qut:auncer:2009_66
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    2. Tayyaba Mukhtar & Muhammad Zeeshan Younas, 2019. "Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism of Pakistan: Evidence from Bank Lending and Asset Price Channels," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(3), pages 121-139, September.
    3. Viladegut, Hugo & Cabello, Miguel, 2014. "El canal de crédito en el Perú: Una aproximación SVAR," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 27, pages 51-66.
    4. Christian Glocker & Pascal Towbin, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Reserve Requirements," WIFO Working Papers 420, WIFO.
    5. Carlos J. García & Pablo González M. & Antonio Moncado S., 2013. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in Chile: a Structural Bayesian Approach," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(1), pages 24-63, April.
    6. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2011. "Econometric Analysis and Prediction of Recurrent Events," NCER Working Paper Series 75, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    7. Kornél Kisgergely, 2012. "Is there a carry trade channel of monetary policy in emerging countries?," MNB Working Papers 2012/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    8. Buffie, Edward F. & Airaudo, M. & Zanna, Felipe, 2018. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate management in less developed countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 159-184.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Bank Credit; VAR; Brazil; Chile;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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