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Capital flow dynamics and the synchronization of financial cycles and business cycles in emerging market economies

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  • Juhro, Solikin M.
  • Iyke, Bernard Njindan
  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar

Abstract

This study assesses the dynamics of capital flow, financial cycles, and business cycles in Emerging Market Economies (EMEs). We show that: (a) capital flow cycles tend to be more volatile than financial and business cycles, (b) although significant heterogeneities exist in the dynamics of these cycles across EMEs, financial and business cycles tend to be similar in terms of amplitudes, (c) significant concordance exists between different cycles and between the same cycles across countries, and (d) capital flow cycles tend to lead financial and business cycles. These findings provide clear guidance on the use of central bank policy mix strategy in response to capital flows, financial, and business cycles. Our results also imply strong interconnection between EMEs, in the sense that they appear to simultaneously experience expansions and recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Juhro, Solikin M. & Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2024. "Capital flow dynamics and the synchronization of financial cycles and business cycles in emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:92:y:2024:i:c:s1042443124000465
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2024.101980
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Capital flow cycles; Financial cycles; Concordance; Fluctuations; Emerging Market Economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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