IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/rjelxx/v20y2012i1p97-117.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

House Prices and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence From Provincial-Level Data

Author

Listed:
  • Beatrice Simo-Kengne
  • Manoel Bittencourt
  • Rangan Gupta

Abstract

This paper empirically examines the effect of house price changes on economic growth across provinces in South Africa. The economic impact of house prices is estimated using a panel data set that covers all nine provinces in South Africa from 1996 to 2010. The findings show that when heterogeneity, endogeneity, and spatial dependence are controlled for, house price changes exhibit a significant effect on regional economic growth in South Africa. The paper introduces a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) specification and shows that spatial effects are highly important in South African housing markets. Moreover, the estimation results suggest that the wealth effect is important at the aggregated level, which contrasts the relevance of the collateral effect found at the regional level.

Suggested Citation

  • Beatrice Simo-Kengne & Manoel Bittencourt & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "House Prices and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence From Provincial-Level Data," Journal of Real Estate Literature, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 97-117, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjelxx:v:20:y:2012:i:1:p:97-117
    DOI: 10.1080/10835547.2012.12090311
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10835547.2012.12090311
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/10835547.2012.12090311?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    2. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    3. Holly, Sean & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, Takashi, 2010. "A spatio-temporal model of house prices in the USA," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 160-173, September.
    4. Kostas Tsatsaronis & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "What drives housing price dynamics: cross-country evidence," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    5. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 2004. "Housing transactions and macroeconomic fluctuations: a case study of England and Wales," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 287-303, December.
    6. Steve Bond & Asli Leblebicioglu & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2010. "Capital accumulation and growth: a new look at the empirical evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(7), pages 1073-1099, November/.
    7. Mehmet Balcilar & Abebe D. Beyene & Rangan Gupta & Monaheng Seleteng, 2011. ""Ripple" Effects in South African House Prices," Working Papers 201102, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Jim Clayton & Norman Miller & Liang Peng, 2010. "Price-volume Correlation in the Housing Market: Causality and Co-movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 14-40, January.
    9. Swamy, P A V B & Tavlas, George S, 1995. "Random Coefficient Models: Theory and Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 165-196, June.
    10. Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta & Patrick T Kanda, 2010. "Bubbles in South African House Prices and their Impact on Consumption," Working Papers 201017, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    11. Campbell, John Y. & Cocco, Joao F., 2007. "How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 591-621, April.
    12. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    13. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    14. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 2004. "Housing Transactions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Case Study of England," 2004 Meeting Papers 207c, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Kazuhiko Hayakawa, 2006. "The Asymptotic Properties of the System GMM Estimator in Dynamic Panel Data Models When Both N and T are Large," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d05-129, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    16. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    17. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 8, Stata Users Group.
    18. Vahram Stepanyan & Mr. Tigran Poghosyan & Aidyn Bibolov, 2010. "House Price Determinants in Selected Countries of the Former Soviet Union," IMF Working Papers 2010/104, International Monetary Fund.
    19. W.A. Naudé & W.F. Krugell, 2006. "Sub‐national growth rate differentials in South Africa: an econometric analysis," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 85(3), pages 443-457, August.
    20. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Sonali DAS , Rangan GUPTA & Patrick A. KAYA, 2010. "Convergence Of Metropolitan House Prices In South Africa: A Re-Examination Using Efficient Unit Root Tests," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(1).
    22. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    23. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2010. "How Much Does Household Collateral Constrain Regional Risk Sharing?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(2), pages 265-294, April.
    24. Demary, Markus, 2009. "The Link between Output, Inflation, Monetary Policy and Housing Price Dynamics," MPRA Paper 15978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Gregory D Sutton, 2002. "Explaining changes in house prices," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    26. Norman Miller & Liang Peng & Michael Sklarz, 2011. "House Prices and Economic Growth," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 522-541, May.
    27. Shigeyuki Hamori & Yoshihiro Hashiguchi, 2012. "Small sample properties of CIPS panel unit root test under conditional and unconditional heteroskedasticity," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2353-2365.
    28. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    29. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nyakabawo, Wendy & Miller, Stephen M. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Temporal causality between house prices and output in the US: A bootstrap rolling-window approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 55-73.
    2. Tsangyao Chang & Tsung-Pao Wu & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Are house prices in South Africa really nonstationary? Evidence from SPSM-based panel KSS test with a Fourier function," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 32-53, January.
    3. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Stephen M. Miller & Zeynel A. Ozdemir, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Shocks and the Dynamics of Asset Prices: The South African Experience," Working Papers 201228, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Beatrice D. Simo - Kengne & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Monique Reid & Goodness C. Aye, 2012. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive mode," Working Papers 15-26, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    5. Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Bosch, Adél & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Housing and the business cycle in South Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 471-491.
    6. Tsangyao Chang & Wen-Chi Liu & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Are there housing bubbles in South Africa? Evidence from SPSM-based panel KSS test with a Fourier function," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 18(5), pages 517-532.
    7. Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Kanyane Matlou, 2014. "A time-varying approach to analysing fiscal policy and asset prices in South Africa," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 6(1), pages 46-63, April.
    8. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta & Manoel Bittencourt, 2013. "The Impact of House Prices on Consumption in South Africa: Evidence from Provincial-Level Panel VARs," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(8), pages 1133-1154, November.
    9. Alexander Zimper, 2014. "The minimal confidence levels of Basel capital regulation," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(2), pages 129-143, April.
    10. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-476 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Testing for Persistence with Breaks and Outliers in South African House Prices," Working Papers 201233, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Reid, Monique & Aye, Goodness C., 2013. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric across bull and bear markets in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 161-171.
    13. Tsangyao Chang & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "The Causal Relationship between House Prices and Economic Growth in the Nine Provinces of South Africa: Evidence from Panel-Granger Causality Tests," Working Papers 201317, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vighneswara Swamy & Munusamy Dharani, 2020. "Thresholds of financial development in the Euro area," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(6), pages 1730-1774, June.
    2. Holger Zemanek & Ansgar Belke & Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "Current Account Imbalances and Structural Adjustment in the Euro Area: How to Rebalance Competitiveness," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 895, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Peñasco, Cristina & del Río, Pablo & Romero-Jordán, Desiderio, 2017. "Gas and electricity demand in Spanish manufacturing industries: An analysis using homogeneous and heterogeneous estimators," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 45-60.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Holger Zemanek & Gunther Schnabl, 2010. "Current Account Balances and Structural Adjustment in the Euro Area," Ruhr Economic Papers 0176, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    5. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2011. "Demand and Price Volatility: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt2q87432b, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    6. repec:zbw:rwirep:0176 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Vogel, Johanna, 2013. "Regional Convergence in Europe: A Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Approach," MPRA Paper 51794, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Holger Zemanek & Ansgar Belke & Gunther Schnabl, 2010. "Current account balances and structural adjustment in the euro area," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 83-127, May.
    9. Swamy, Vighneswara & Dharani, Munusamy, 2019. "The dynamics of finance-growth nexus in advanced economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 122-146.
    10. Goya, Daniel, 2020. "The exchange rate and export variety: A cross-country analysis with long panel estimators," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 649-665.
    11. Dimelis, Sophia P. & Papaioannou, Sotiris K., 2011. "ICT growth effects at the industry level: A comparison between the US and the EU," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 37-50, March.
    12. B. Biagi & MG. Brandano & D. Lambiri, 2012. "Does tourism affect house prices? Some evidence from Italy," Working Paper CRENoS 201227, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    13. Daniel Goya, 2014. "The Multiple Impacts of the Exchange Rate on Export Diversification," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1436, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2014. "Euro-dollar polarization and heterogeneity in exchange rate pass-throughs within the euro zone," MPRA Paper 57704, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2014.
    15. Vighneswara Swamy & Dharani M, 2020. "The tipping point of financial development? – evidence from OECD countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 125-165, February.
    16. KAFANDO, Namalguebzanga, 2014. "L'industrialisation de l'Afrique: l'importance des facteurs structurels et du régime de change [The industrialization of Africa: the importance of structural factors and exchange rate regime]," MPRA Paper 68736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Jaunky, Vishal Chandr, 2011. "The CO2 emissions-income nexus: Evidence from rich countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1228-1240, March.
    18. Patrizia Ordine & Giuseppe Rose, 2008. "Local Banks Efficiency and Employment," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 22(3), pages 469-493, September.
    19. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    20. DELL'ANNO, Roberto & VILLA, Stefania, 2012. "Growth in Transition Countries: Big Bang versus Gradualism," CELPE Discussion Papers 122, CELPE - CEnter for Labor and Political Economics, University of Salerno, Italy.
    21. Njangang, Henri & Asongu, Simplice A. & Tadadjeu, Sosson & Nounamo, Yann & Kamguia, Brice, 2022. "Governance in mitigating the effect of oil wealth on wealth inequality: A cross-country analysis of policy thresholds," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:rjelxx:v:20:y:2012:i:1:p:97-117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/rjel20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.