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Investigating the Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy in the Republic of Macedonia during the Period of Transition

Author

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  • Anita Angelovska Bezovska

    (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, FYR Macedonia)

  • Jane Bogoev

    (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, FYR Macedonia)

  • Ana Mitreska

    (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, FYR Macedonia)

  • Maja Kadievska Vojnovik

    (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, FYR Macedonia)

Abstract

The main aim of this research is to investigate the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy with respect to output gap fluctuations in the Republic of Macedonia during the period 1991-2009. We use two different fiscal policy measures: 1) the cyclically unadjusted primary budget balance and 2) the cyclically adjusted primary budget balance as a proxy indicator of the fiscal policy stance. This analysis also aims to explore whether there was a substantial change in the fiscal policy behavior prior to 1996 due to the turbulent initial period of transition and the switch in monetary policy strategy. We additionally control for other factors that also seem to have had a significant impact over the fiscal policy behavior, such as the armed conflict in 2001 and the impact of public debt as a proxy indicator of budget financing constraints. The estimated results with respect to both measures, the cyclically unadjusted and cyclically adjusted budget balance, indicate differences in the fiscal policy behavior prior to and after 1996. More precisely, the results imply that the fiscal policy behavior prior to 1996 was procyclical, whereas afterwards the fiscal policy became countercyclical. These results are robust to different measures of the output gap and different frequency of the data sets.

Suggested Citation

  • Anita Angelovska Bezovska & Jane Bogoev & Ana Mitreska & Maja Kadievska Vojnovik, 2011. "Investigating the Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy in the Republic of Macedonia during the Period of Transition," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 13(1), pages 57-104, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:iez:survey:ces-v13_04-2011_angelovska-bezovska-bogoev-mitreska-kadievska-vojnovik
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    Cited by:

    1. Borce Trenovski & Biljana Tashevska, 2015. "Fiscal or monetary dominance in a small, open economy with fixed exchange rate – the case of the Republic of Macedonia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 33(1), pages 125-145.
    2. Tashevska, Biljana & Trpkova-Nestorovska, Marija & Trenovski, Borce, 2017. "Estimating a fiscal reaction function for the South East European countries," MPRA Paper 91298, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    3. Borce Trenovski & Biljana Tashevska, 2014. "The Transmission Mechanism And Consequences From The Global Economic Crisis For The Macedonian Economy," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 55-69, December.
    4. Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev & Dragan Tevdovski, 2015. "The transmission of foreign shocks to South Eastern European economies," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 747-767, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; cyclically adjusted balance; output gap; monetary policy change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General

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