IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/sagope/v14y2024i3p21582440241271172.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Panel Analysis of the Impact of EBITDA, Equity Book Values, Growth, Risk and Negative Earnings on Share Price Variations

Author

Listed:
  • Ronald Nhleko
  • Daniel Schutte

Abstract

This study was motivated by the recent prevalence of valuation professionals utilizing EBITDA measures as part of their equity valuation strategies. To examine the impact of such valuation measures on share price variations, we developed a variant of the Ohlson valuation model that relates EBITDA, equity book values, growth, risk and negative earnings to share prices. We validated this relationship by utilizing the complete time-series data of the largest companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange from 1994 to 2017. We found that our model specification accounted for over 87% of the variance in the logarithmic-transformed share prices. Furthermore, the response coefficients for each explanatory variable were statistically significant, regardless of whether companies or sectors were incorporated as cross-sections. These findings have several significant empirical implications. Firstly, they demonstrate that EBITDA and equity book value variables significantly impact share price variations. Secondly, they lend credence to the hypotheses that growth and risk factors impact share price variations, and that negative earnings are value relevant. Ultimately, these findings constitute conclusive evidence of the empirical validity of the model specification we posit. JEL classification codes: G10, G12, G14, G11, G32, M41.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald Nhleko & Daniel Schutte, 2024. "A Panel Analysis of the Impact of EBITDA, Equity Book Values, Growth, Risk and Negative Earnings on Share Price Variations," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(3), pages 21582440241, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:sagope:v:14:y:2024:i:3:p:21582440241271172
    DOI: 10.1177/21582440241271172
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/21582440241271172
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/21582440241271172?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter D. Easton & Gregory A. Sommers, 2003. "Scale and the Scale Effect in Market-based Accounting Research," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1-2), pages 25-56.
    2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    3. Błażej Prusak, 2017. "The accuracy of alternative stock valuation methods – the case of the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 416-438, January.
    4. Brown, Stephen & Lo, Kin & Lys, Thomas, 1999. "Use of R2 in accounting research: measuring changes in value relevance over the last four decades," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 83-115, December.
    5. Rafael E. De Hoyos & Vasilis Sarafidis, 2006. "Testing for cross-sectional dependence in panel-data models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 6(4), pages 482-496, December.
    6. King, Gary & Roberts, Margaret E., 2015. "How Robust Standard Errors Expose Methodological Problems They Do Not Fix, and What to Do About It," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 159-179, April.
    7. Holthausen, Robert W. & Watts, Ross L., 2001. "The relevance of the value-relevance literature for financial accounting standard setting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 3-75, September.
    8. Ely, K & Waymire, G, 1999. "Intangible assets and stock prices in the pre-SEC era," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37, pages 17-44.
    9. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    10. Baltagi, Badi H. & Li, Qi, 1991. "A joint test for serial correlation and random individual effects," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 277-280, March.
    11. Mattheus Theodorus Mey & Christiaan Lamprecht, 2021. "The association between EBITDA reconciliation quality and opportunistic disclosure," South African Journal of Accounting Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 87-110, May.
    12. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    13. Franck Bancel & Usha R. Mittoo, 2014. "The Gap between the Theory and Practice of Corporate Valuation: Survey of European Experts[We are ext]," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 26(4), pages 106-117, December.
    14. Jerald E. Pinto & Thomas R. Robinson & John D. Stowe, 2019. "Equity valuation: A survey of professional practice," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 219-233, April.
    15. Mindy Morel, 2003. "Endogenous Parameter Time Series Estimation of the Ohlson Model: Linear and Nonlinear Analyses," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1341-1362.
    16. Lihki Rubio & Alejandro J. Gutiérrez-Rodríguez & Manuel G. Forero, 2021. "EBITDA Index Prediction Using Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(20), pages 1-14, October.
    17. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    18. Francis, J & Schipper, K, 1999. "Have financial statements lost their relevance?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 319-352.
    19. Basu, Sudipta, 1997. "The conservatism principle and the asymmetric timeliness of earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 3-37, December.
    20. Erik Lie & Heidi J. Lie, 2002. "Multiples Used to Estimate Corporate Value," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(2), pages 44-54, March.
    21. Michael Davern & Nikole Gyles & Dean Hanlon & Matthew Pinnuck, 2019. "Is Financial Reporting Still Useful? Australian Evidence," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 55(1), pages 237-272, March.
    22. Mary E. Barth & Greg Clinch, 2009. "Scale Effects in Capital Markets-Based Accounting Research," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3-4), pages 253-288.
    23. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    24. repec:eme:mfppss:03074350310768472 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Felix Canitz & Panagiotis Ballis-Papanastasiou & Christian Fieberg & Kerstin Lopatta & Armin Varmaz & Thomas Walker, 2017. "Estimates and inferences in accounting panel data sets: comparing approaches," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 18(3), pages 268-283, May.
    26. Onali, Enrico & Ginesti, Gianluca, 2015. "Sins of Omission in Value Relevance Empirical Studies," MPRA Paper 64265, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Yuan Yin & Ken Peasnell & Herbert G. Hunt, 2018. "How do sell-side analysts obtain price-earnings multiples to value firms?," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 108-135, January.
    28. Juana Aledo Martínez & Juan Manuel García Lara & María T. González Pérez & Christos A. Grambovas, 2020. "An empirical assessment of proposed solutions for resolving scale problems in value relevance accounting research," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(4), pages 3905-3933, December.
    29. Mindy Morel, 2003. "Endogenous Parameter Time Series Estimation of the Ohlson Model: Linear and Nonlinear Analyses," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(9‐10), pages 1341-1362, December.
    30. Jing Liu & Doron Nissim & Jacob Thomas, 2002. "Equity Valuation Using Multiples," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 135-172, March.
    31. Christie, Andrew A., 1987. "On cross-sectional analysis in accounting research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 231-258, December.
    32. Collins, Daniel W. & Maydew, Edward L. & Weiss, Ira S., 1997. "Changes in the value-relevance of earnings and book values over the past forty years," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 39-67, December.
    33. Tswei, Keshin, 2013. "Is transaction price more value relevant compared to accounting information? An investigation of a time-series approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1062-1078.
    34. L. Gil-Alana & R. Iniguez-Sanchez & G. Lopez-Espinosa, 2011. "Endogenous problems in cross-sectional valuation models based on accounting information," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 245-265, August.
    35. Xiaoquan Jiang & Bon-Soo Lee, 2005. "An Empirical Test of the Accounting-Based Residual Income Model and the Traditional Dividend Discount Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(4), pages 1465-1504, July.
    36. Kothari, S. P. & Zimmerman, Jerold L., 1995. "Price and return models," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 155-192, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Atoche, Teresa duarte & Pérez lópez, José ángel & Camúñez ruiz, Jose antonio, 2012. "La relevancia de los gastos de I+D. Estudio empírico en el sector del automóvil," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 257-286.
    2. Tswei, Keshin, 2013. "Is transaction price more value relevant compared to accounting information? An investigation of a time-series approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1062-1078.
    3. Arturo Leccadito & Stefania Veltri, 2015. "A regime switching Ohlson model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(5), pages 2015-2035, September.
    4. Misund, Bård & Asche, Frank & Osmundsen, Petter, 2008. "Industry upheaval and valuation: Empirical evidence from the international oil and gas industry," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 398-424, December.
    5. Veith, Stefan & Werner, Jörg R., 2014. "Comparative Value Relevance Studies: Country Differences Versus Specification Effects," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 301-330.
    6. Filip, Andrei & Raffournier, Bernard, 2010. "The value relevance of earnings in a transition economy: The case of Romania," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 77-103, March.
    7. Kuo, Chen-Yin, 2016. "Does the vector error correction model perform better than others in forecasting stock price? An application of residual income valuation theory," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 772-789.
    8. Palea Vera, 2013. "Capital Market Effects of the IFRS Adoption for Separate Financial Statements: Evidence from the Italian Stock Market," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201309, University of Turin.
    9. L. Gil-Alana & R. Iniguez-Sanchez & G. Lopez-Espinosa, 2011. "Endogenous problems in cross-sectional valuation models based on accounting information," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 245-265, August.
    10. Shan, Yuan George, 2015. "Value relevance, earnings management and corporate governance in China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 186-207.
    11. Igor Goncharov & David Veenman, 2014. "Stale and Scale Effects in Markets-Based Accounting Research: Evidence from the Valuation of Dividends," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 25-55, May.
    12. Samudhram, Ananda & Stewart, Errol & Wickramanayake, Jayasinghe & Sinnakkannu, Jothee, 2014. "Value relevance of human capital based disclosures: Moderating effects of labor productivity, investor sentiment, analyst coverage and audit quality," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 338-353.
    13. Hejer Khaldi & Feten Hamama, 2024. "Value Relevance of Accounting Information in Uncertain Economic Policy Context: Evidence from Tunisia," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 23(3), pages 570-595, September.
    14. Gjerde, Øystein & Knivsflå, Kjell & Sættem, Frode, 2011. "The value relevance of financial reporting in Norway 1965-2004," Scandinavian Journal of Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 113-128, March.
    15. Oliveira, Lídia & Rodrigues, Lúcia Lima & Craig, Russell, 2010. "Intangible assets and value relevance: Evidence from the Portuguese stock exchange," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 241-252.
    16. Juana Aledo Martínez & Juan Manuel García Lara & María T. González Pérez & Christos A. Grambovas, 2020. "An empirical assessment of proposed solutions for resolving scale problems in value relevance accounting research," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(4), pages 3905-3933, December.
    17. Tae Choi & Jinchul Jung, 2008. "Ethical Commitment, Financial Performance, and Valuation: An Empirical Investigation of Korean Companies," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 81(2), pages 447-463, August.
    18. Palea, Vera, 2014. "Are IFRS value-relevant for separate financial statements? Evidence from the Italian stock market," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-17.
    19. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    20. Vera Palea, 2012. "Are IFRS Value-Relevant for Separate Financial Statements? Evidence from the Italian Stock Market," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201211, University of Turin.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EBITDA; equity valuation; value relevance; price model; panel data analysis; alternative performance measures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:sagope:v:14:y:2024:i:3:p:21582440241271172. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.