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The Resilience of UK Regional Employment Cycles

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  • Marianne Sensier
  • Michael Artis

Abstract

This paper dates the classical business cycle of quarterly UK GDP, unemployment, aggregate and regional employment to assess turning points in the economic cycle. We analyse synchronisation of the regions with UK employment and investigate which regions lead into recession. We perform the McNemar Test on groups of regions and arrive at Northern and Southern regional clusters. We find that the northern regions have had a greater incidence of recession with southern regions suffering more severe recessions (in terms of total jobs lost). Finally we compare the resilience of the regional employment cycle to UK employment. This most resilient region to the 2008 recession was London from our Southern grouping and the least resilient has been the Northern Ireland in our northern grouping.

Suggested Citation

  • Marianne Sensier & Michael Artis, 2016. "The Resilience of UK Regional Employment Cycles," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 229, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    • Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:229
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Gregg & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2010. "Employment in the 2008–2009 recession," Economic & Labour Market Review, Palgrave Macmillan;Office for National Statistics, vol. 4(8), pages 37-43, August.
    2. Marianne Sensier & Michael Artis, 2016. "The Resilience of Employment in Wales: Through Recession and into Recovery," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 586-599, April.
    3. Ron Martin, 2012. "Regional economic resilience, hysteresis and recessionary shocks," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 1-32, January.
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    8. Maurizio Bovi, 2005. "Globalization vs. Europeanization: A Business Cycles Race," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 331-345, June.
    9. Bernard Fingleton & Harry Garretsen & Ron Martin, 2012. "Recessionary Shocks And Regional Employment: Evidence On The Resilience Of U.K. Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 109-133, February.
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    13. Michael Artis & Marianne Sensier, 2010. "Tracking Unemployment in the North West Through Recession and Forecasting Recovery," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 136, Economics, The University of Manchester.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pietro Pizzuto, 2020. "The role of regional competitiveness in shaping the heterogeneous impact of the Great Recession," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 267-290, April.
    2. Hasan Engin Duran & Ugo Fratesi, 2023. "Economic resilience and regionally differentiated cycles: Evidence from a turning point approach in Italy," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(2), pages 219-252, April.

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