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Insurance and economic policy uncertainty

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  • Balcilar, Mehmet
  • Gupta, Rangan
  • Lee, Chien-Chiang
  • Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin

Abstract

Just as the world has witnessed the increased importance of the insurance sector over the past few decades, it has also witnessed a sharp rise in risks and uncertainties. Surprisingly, studies analyzing the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and the insurance sector are almost non-existent. Another major limitation of insurance literature is the choice of methodology. Most studies on the insurance sector do not take into consideration issues of heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, and are therefore subject to errors. To address the identified gaps, this research investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on insurance premiums in a panel of 15 countries over the period 1998–2016 by employing heterogeneous panel estimation techniques with cross-sectional dependence. The Durbin-Hausman cointegration tests of Westerlund (2008) confirm that a long-run relationship exists between the variables. Findings from the error correction based panel estimations show that the insurance sector is not immune to the effects of economic policy uncertainty. Economic policy uncertainty raises insurance premiums both in the short and long run, although the long-run impact is greater than the short-run impact. In addition, economic policy uncertainty exerts a bigger influence on non-life insurance premium than on life insurance premium, indicating that the economic risks covered by non-life insurance are more sensitive to uncertainty than the mortality and longevity risks covered by life insurance. Our findings further show that national income, education, population, financial development and institutional quality all raise insurance premiums, while inflation lowers insurance premiums.

Suggested Citation

  • Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin, 2020. "Insurance and economic policy uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:54:y:2020:i:c:s0275531919306312
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101253
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    6. Ozili, Peterson K, 2022. "Sources of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Nigeria: Implications for Africa," MPRA Paper 112075, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    10. Ozili, Peterson Kitakogelu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty: are there regional and country correlation?," MPRA Paper 105636, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic policy uncertainty; Insurance premium; Short- and long-run relationships; Panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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