IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/worlde/v45y2022i6p1910-1936.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic performance in Africa: The role of fragile financial system

Author

Listed:
  • John Nkwoma Inekwe

Abstract

We relate risk in the African financial system to its long‐run economic performance under structural changes and cross‐sectional dependence. To achieve this objective, we generate risk indexes from several measures of financial soundness. We find a long‐run relationship between financial risk factors and economic performance indicators. Financial risk factors induce about 3% fall in RGDPP in the long‐run. This impact is huge in Kenya, Nigeria, Madagascar, Mauritius and Rwanda, whereas a reduction in employment is more prominent in Kenya, Madagascar and South Africa in this order. The capital risk index is more relevant in explaining economic performance in Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • John Nkwoma Inekwe, 2022. "Economic performance in Africa: The role of fragile financial system," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(6), pages 1910-1936, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:45:y:2022:i:6:p:1910-1936
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.13225
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13225
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/twec.13225?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Nkwoma Inekwe, 2020. "Bank credit risk, grain production and the Indian economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(47), pages 5188-5202, October.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirguc‐Kunt & Luc Laeven & Ross Levine, 2008. "Finance, Firm Size, and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1379-1405, October.
    4. Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2000. "Financial markets and the allocation of capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 187-214.
    5. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2004. "The generalized dynamic factor model consistency and rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 231-255, April.
    6. Mr. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Mr. Alfredo Mario Leone & Mr. Mahinder Singh Gill & Mr. Owen Evens, 2000. "Macroprudential Indicators of Financial System Soundness," IMF Occasional Papers 2000/007, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Demirgüç-Kunt, AslI & Detragiache, Enrica & Tressel, Thierry, 2008. "Banking on the principles: Compliance with Basel Core Principles and bank soundness," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 511-542, October.
    8. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Chen, Hsien-Yi & Chang, Chong-Chuo & Yang, Shu-Ling, 2016. "The relation between sovereign credit rating revisions and economic growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 90-100.
    9. John Nkwoma Inekwe, 2019. "The exploration of economic crises: parameter uncertainty and predictive ability," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(2), pages 290-313, May.
    10. Kashyap, Anil K. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1995. "The impact of monetary policy on bank balance sheets," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 151-195, June.
    11. De Gregorio, Jose & Guidotti, Pablo E., 1995. "Financial development and economic growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-448, March.
    12. Joakim Westerlund & David L. Edgerton, 2008. "A Simple Test for Cointegration in Dependent Panels with Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(5), pages 665-704, October.
    13. Tobias Körner & Isabel Schnabel, 2011. "Public ownership of banks and economic growth," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 19(3), pages 407-441, July.
    14. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    15. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    16. Berkmen, S. Pelin & Gelos, Gaston & Rennhack, Robert & Walsh, James P., 2012. "The global financial crisis: Explaining cross-country differences in the output impact," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 42-59.
    17. Kevin Honglin Zhang, 2001. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth in China?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(3), pages 679-693, November.
    18. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2015. "Public debt and growth: Heterogeneity and non-linearity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 45-58.
    19. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    20. Loesse Jacques Esso, 2010. "Re-Examining The Finance-Growth Nexus: Structural Break, Threshold Cointegration And Causality Evidence From The Ecowas," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 57-79, September.
    21. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    22. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-586, June.
    23. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084, Central Bank of Chile.
    24. Rioja, Felix & Valev, Neven, 2004. "Does one size fit all?: a reexamination of the finance and growth relationship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 429-447, August.
    25. Inekwe, John Nkwoma & Jin, Yi & Valenzuela, Ma. Rebecca, 2018. "The effects of financial distress: Evidence from US GDP growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 8-21.
    26. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    27. Amsler, Christine & Lee, Junsoo, 1995. "An LM Test for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Structural Change," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 359-368, February.
    28. Robert E. Hall, 2015. "Quantifying the Lasting Harm to the US Economy from the Financial Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 71-128.
    29. Carlstrom, Charles T & Fuerst, Timothy S, 1997. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 893-910, December.
    30. Demetriades, Panicos O. & Hussein, Khaled A., 1996. "Does financial development cause economic growth? Time-series evidence from 16 countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 387-411, December.
    31. Zhixiong Zeng, 2013. "A theory of the non-neutrality of money with banking frictions and bank recapitalization," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 52(2), pages 729-754, March.
    32. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirgüç‐Kunt & Vojislav Maksimovic, 2005. "Financial and Legal Constraints to Growth: Does Firm Size Matter?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 137-177, February.
    33. Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 205-248.
    34. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M, 2000. "The Role of Financial Development in Growth and Investment," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 341-360, December.
    35. Gregory, Allan W. & Nason, James M. & Watt, David G., 1996. "Testing for structural breaks in cointegrated relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 321-341.
    36. Inessa Love, 2003. "Financial Development and Financing Constraints: International Evidence from the Structural Investment Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 765-791, July.
    37. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2017. "Dynamic factor models with infinite-dimensional factor space: Asymptotic analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 199(1), pages 74-92.
    38. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    39. Pagan, Adrian & Robinson, Tim, 2014. "Methods for assessing the impact of financial effects on business cycles in macroeconometric models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 94-106.
    40. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Laeven, Luc, 2017. "The use and effectiveness of macroprudential policies: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 203-224.
    41. Bacchetta, Philippe & Caminal, Ramon, 2000. "Do capital market imperfections exacerbate output fluctuations?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 449-468, March.
    42. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Leverage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 1941-1966, December.
    43. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300.
    44. Bengt Söderlund & Patrik Gustavsson Tingvall, 2017. "Capital Freedom, Financial Development and Provincial Economic Growth in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 764-787, April.
    45. Michał Jerzmanowski, 2017. "Finance and sources of growth: evidence from the U.S. states," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 97-122, March.
    46. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 393-420.
    47. Inekwe, John Nkwoma, 2021. "Finance and European regional economy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    48. Law, Siong Hook & Singh, Nirvikar, 2014. "Does too much finance harm economic growth?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 36-44.
    49. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    50. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2011. "Basel Core Principles and bank soundness: Does compliance matter?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 179-190, December.
    51. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    52. John Inekwe, 2018. "Financial crises and the extreme bounds of predictors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 2047-2067, December.
    53. Kendall, Jake, 2012. "Local financial development and growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1548-1562.
    54. Herwartz, Helmut & Walle, Yabibal M., 2014. "Openness and the finance-growth nexus," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 235-247.
    55. Shuanglin Lin & Kim Sosin, 2001. "Foreign debt and economic growth," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(3), pages 635-655, November.
    56. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance, entrepreneurship and growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 513-542, December.
    57. Puyang Sun & Somnath Sen & Jiadong Tong, 2011. "Size Effects on the Transmission Mechanism from Finance to Development: A Study of Large Emerging Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34, pages 778-791, May.
    58. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Love, Inessa & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 2006. "Business environment and the incorporation decision," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2967-2993, November.
    59. Odedokun, M. O., 1996. "Alternative econometric approaches for analysing the role of the financial sector in economic growth: Time-series evidence from LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 119-146, June.
    60. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine, 2007. "Finance, inequality and the poor," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 27-49, March.
    61. Klomp, Jeroen & Haan, Jakob de, 2012. "Banking risk and regulation: Does one size fit all?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3197-3212.
    62. Zongye Huang & Yu You, 2019. "How does capital control spur economic growth?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 1234-1258, April.
    63. Jin, Yi & Zeng, Zhixiong, 2014. "Banking risk and macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 350-360.
    64. Andrade, Philippe & Bruneau, Catherine & Gregoir, Stephane, 2005. "Testing for the cointegration rank when some cointegrating directions are changing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 269-310, February.
    65. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    66. Robert E. Hall, 2010. "Why Does the Economy Fall to Pieces after a Financial Crisis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 3-20, Fall.
    67. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-287, August.
    68. Christian Gengenbach & Jean‐Pierre Urbain & Joakim Westerlund, 2016. "Error Correction Testing in Panels with Common Stochastic Trends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 982-1004, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Inekwe, John Nkwoma, 2021. "Finance and European regional economy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    2. James B. Ang, 2008. "A Survey Of Recent Developments In The Literature Of Finance And Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 536-576, July.
    3. Alberto Bucci & Simone Marsiglio, 2019. "Financial development and economic growth: long‐run equilibrium and transitional dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(3), pages 331-359, July.
    4. Thorsten Beck, 2009. "The Econometrics of Finance and Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terence C. Mills & Kerry Patterson (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, chapter 25, pages 1180-1209, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Vighneswara Swamy & Munusamy Dharani, 2020. "Thresholds of financial development in the Euro area," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(6), pages 1730-1774, June.
    6. Swamy, Vighneswara & Dharani, Munusamy, 2019. "The dynamics of finance-growth nexus in advanced economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 122-146.
    7. Beck, T.H.L., 2011. "The Role of Finance in Economic Development : Benefits, Risks, and Politics," Discussion Paper 2011-141, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    8. Loayza,Norman V. & Ouazad,Amine & Ranciere,Romain, 2017. "Financial development, growth, and crisis: is there a trade-off ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8237, The World Bank.
    9. Vighneswara Swamy & Dharani M, 2020. "The tipping point of financial development? – evidence from OECD countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 125-165, February.
    10. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    11. Liang, Qi & Teng, Jian-Zhou, 2006. "Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 395-411.
    12. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    13. Zhang, Jin & Wang, Lanfang & Wang, Susheng, 2012. "Financial development and economic growth: Recent evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 393-412.
    14. Popov, Alexander, 2017. "Evidence on finance and economic growth," Working Paper Series 2115, European Central Bank.
    15. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934, Elsevier.
    16. Alessio Ciarlone, 2019. "The relationship between financial development and growth: the case of emerging Europe," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 521, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Inekwe, John Nkwoma & Jin, Yi & Valenzuela, Ma. Rebecca, 2018. "The effects of financial distress: Evidence from US GDP growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 8-21.
    18. Beck, Thorsten & Lundberg, Mattias & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2006. "Financial intermediary development and growth volatility: Do intermediaries dampen or magnify shocks?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1146-1167, November.
    19. Vighneswara Swamy & Munusamy Dharani, 2021. "Thresholds in finance–growth nexus: Evidence from G‐7 economies," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 1-40, March.
    20. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & John H. Hall & Sahar Bahmani, 2014. "Causal nexus between economic growth, banking sector development, stock market development, and other macroeconomic variables: The case of ASEAN countries," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 155-173, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:45:y:2022:i:6:p:1910-1936. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.