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Historical Performance of Commodity and Stock Markets

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  • Zapata, Hector O.
  • Detre, Joshua D.
  • Hanabuchi, Tatsuya

Abstract

This paper examines two interrelated issues in commodity markets, namely, the cyclical relationship between stocks and commodities and the function of commodity and agribusiness indexes in portfolios. A high negative correlation has existed between stock and commodity prices over the past 140 years. Moreover, the two markets have alternated in price leadership with 29–32-year cycles. The recent price dominance in agricultural commodities started in 2000, a result supported by the empirical results of the portfolio allocation analysis. For a risk-averse investor, irrespective of the period analyzed, placing funds in agribusiness and/or agricultural commodity indexes was sound investing.

Suggested Citation

  • Zapata, Hector O. & Detre, Joshua D. & Hanabuchi, Tatsuya, 2012. "Historical Performance of Commodity and Stock Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(3), pages 1-19, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:130273
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.130273
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    1. Bharat Kumar Meher & Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar & Santosh Kumar & Abhishek Kumar Gupta, 2022. "Modelling Market Indices, Commodity Market Prices and Stock Prices of Energy Sector using VAR with Variance Decomposition Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(4), pages 122-130, July.
    2. Fujio Toriumi & Kazuki Komura, 2018. "Investment Index Construction from Information Propagation Based on Transfer Entropy," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(1), pages 159-172, January.
    3. Hanabuchi, Tatsuya, 2013. "Investing in Agribusiness Stocks: What Lies Ahead!," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 143041, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    4. Brorsen, B. Wade, 2012. "Discussion: Agricultural Commodities and Agribusiness Stocks as Financial Assets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(3), pages 1-3, August.
    5. Ghulam Mujtaba & Asima Siddique & Nader Naifar & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2024. "Hedge and safe haven role of commodities for the US and Chinese equity markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2381-2414, April.
    6. Songjiao Chen & William W. Wilson & Ryan Larsen & Bruce Dahl, 2015. "Investing in Agriculture as an Asset Class," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 353-371, June.
    7. Jasman Tuyon & Zamri Ahmad & Hylmee Matahir, 2016. "The Roles of Investor Sentiment in Malaysian Stock Market," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 12(Suppl. 1), pages 43-75.
    8. Reboredo, Juan Carlos & Ugolini, Andrea & Hernandez, Jose Arreola, 2021. "Dynamic spillovers and network structure among commodity, currency, and stock markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Laila Amir Memdani & Rajya lakshmi Kandukuri, 2014. "Nexus between Returns in Commodity Market and Equity Market: A Case of Indian Steel Industry," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 3(3), pages 59-72, June.
    10. Andriosopoulos, Kostas & Galariotis, Emilios & Spyrou, Spyros, 2017. "Contagion, volatility persistence and volatility spill-overs: The case of energy markets during the European financial crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 217-227.
    11. Hector O. Zapata & Junior E. Betanco & Maria Bampasidou & Michael Deliberto, 2023. "A Cyclical Phenomenon among Stock & Commodity Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-13, July.
    12. Valdes, Rodrigo, 2017. "What drives the regional integration of agribusiness stocks? Evidence in worldwide perspective," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258265, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Luo Wang & Bin Li & Rakesh Gupta & Jen-Je Su & Benjamin Liu, 2017. "Return Predictability in Australian Managed Funds," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 16(1), pages 1-19, June.
    14. Wang, Qiao & Balvers, Ronald, 2021. "Determinants and predictability of commodity producer returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Marketing;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness

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